Are the Twins Closer to a World Series?

[Linus]

5 hours ago, ToddlerHarmon said:

I think those worried about the offense need to recognize how much it improved in the second half. We can break it down to improved Kepler, returned and productive Polanco and Kirilloff, more time from Jeffers, and the arrival of Lewis, Julien, and Wallner (and actually improvements from each of them over the course of the year). That's almost the whole lineup, and speaks to good coaching.

The other part of the improvement was less time from Gallo, Buxton, Taylor, and Vazquez.

So for those looking for the offensive cure, we say goodbye to Gallo and Taylor, hope for healthy Buxton and Correa, and keep Vazquez in a half-time-at-best role. And pick up the options on Kepler and Polanco

With all that, there is still probably a need for more at first and in center. Re-sign Solano? Hope for more from a healthy Miranda? Bring up Martin? Any of these options is happily a high-contact hitter, to help balance the free swingers. Based on this year, where crowding the roster worked wonderfully, I'd say the answer is yes to all of them.

In any case, the second half, and the playoff run, should earn some trust in the coaches and front office to keep this thing going

I think a case can be made that the second half improvement in offense was due to us playing lots of bad teams. The offense in the playoffs looked just like it did in the first half when we were playing good teams 

[JD-TWINS]

6 hours ago, Mark G said:

Unfortunately, I must agree.  We were built this year for a 2 out of 3 series against comparable competition.  Guess what?  We got it.  After that.........well, not so much.  We showed when we have to go 3 deep with starters it fades, and the pen has to come in too many times; sooner or later one or two will be off (see Thielbar), and that is the ballgame.  (by the way, I love Thielbar)  Our bugaboo the whole first half was not scoring (3 runs or less in close to half the games in the first half), and 4 of the 6 playoff games was just that.  Winning the division is doable for the foreseeable future, but October?  I just don't know.  

Just an observation:  look at the 100 plus win teams this year (and bear with me here).  It was a lot more than just pitching.  Atlanta had 8 players with over 500 plate appearances.  The Dodgers had 5 with over 550 plate appearances, and 3 more in the low to high 400's/  Baltimore had 4 over 560, and 3 more over 450. (Tampa, as well, for that matter).  The twins had Correa with 580 and no one else in the 500 or more range.  They put their best players on the field and let them carry the club.  We have the philosophy that everyone needs to play equally, and everyone gets at bats regardless of position (which is why we have so many utility players).  That plays well in the AL Central, but not in October.  World Series?  I don't see it with this FO and coaching staff, and who are we kidding?  They are one and the same.  I hope I am wrong, and I hope we are playing on this date in '24, but I won't place any bets just yet.  

I don’t think your observation of how the team was/is built is accurate. Ober gave up a couple HR’s in his start but it was his first playoff start after his first full-time season as a starter. Not a terrible thing. Sonny Gray didn’t pitch well in 2nd Series - can’t give up 4 runs in first inning but this was preceded by an excellent outing against a tough Toronto club. Joe Ryan looked good in game 4. Probably the biggest misconception is that we were forced to use our Pen & that bit us! Our manager, rightfully so, laid out a plan that would utilize the number of fresh arms we had in the Pen. Thielbar gave up a hit to Alvarez (who hit nearly .500 for series) and struck out Tucker. Then he made a pitch that he says he would throw in the same spot, the same way, 100 times. Abreu made a good swing on a good pitch - it happens. Our Pen then held the Astros scoreless for the next 5 plus innings.

We were a break away from winning Game 4 & forcing Houston to face Pablo Lopez again.

The AB stats make sense in that the norm for a typical FULL season is 550 plus AB’s. It’s ridiculous to think our platoon system is why we didn’t have guys get nearly that many AB’s! 
 

Lewis & Polanco & Kirilloff …….3 core starters, were all on the IL at the season’s start. Kirilloff came late April - Polanco early May - Lewis late May. All 3 guys would go back on IL later in the season.

Buxton played 85 games.

Kepler was hurt (on IL) in May with a bad toe.

Taylor was out with a bad hamstring - IL.

Castro out with bad back & then paternity leave.

Farmer got hit in the face - a month on IL.

Wallner is a rookie. Julien is a rookie.

The catchers are the only true platoon guys we have………the rest of the guys were filling in for the regulars who, unfortunately were hurt & unable to play regularly.

Tough to get 500 plus AB’s if you can’t play.

[karcherd]

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

I don’t think your observation of how the team was/is built is accurate. Ober gave up a couple HR’s in his start but it was his first playoff start after his first full-time season as a starter. Not a terrible thing. Sonny Gray didn’t pitch well in 2nd Series - can’t give up 4 runs in first inning but this was preceded by an excellent outing against a tough Toronto club. Joe Ryan looked good in game 4. Probably the biggest misconception is that we were forced to use our Pen & that bit us! Our manager, rightfully so, laid out a plan that would utilize the number of fresh arms we had in the Pen. Thielbar gave up a hit to Alvarez (who hit nearly .500 for series) and struck out Tucker. Then he made a pitch that he says he would throw in the same spot, the same way, 100 times. Abreu made a good swing on a good pitch - it happens. Our Pen then held the Astros scoreless for the next 5 plus innings.

We were a break away from winning Game 4 & forcing Houston to face Pablo Lopez again.

The AB stats make sense in that the norm for a typical FULL season is 550 plus AB’s. It’s ridiculous to think our platoon system is why we didn’t have guys get nearly that many AB’s! 
 

Lewis & Polanco & Kirilloff …….3 core starters, were all on the IL at the season’s start. Kirilloff came late April - Polanco early May - Lewis late May. All 3 guys would go back on IL later in the season.

Buxton played 85 games.

Kepler was hurt (on IL) in May with a bad toe.

Taylor was out with a bad hamstring - IL.

Castro out with bad back & then paternity leave.

Farmer got hit in the face - a month on IL.

Wallner is a rookie. Julien is a rookie.

The catchers are the only true platoon guys we have………the rest of the guys were filling in for the regulars who, unfortunately were hurt & unable to play regularly.

Tough to get 500 plus AB’s if you can’t play.

We are a team of platoon players, that is the front office mantra to play everyone equally.  It had nothing to do with injuries, otherwise you wouldn't have players getting pulled in the second inning of a game.  As the roster stands now, Correa, Buxton and Lewis are probably our only everyday players.  Everyone else will be a platoon player and that is what any signings or moves made this offseason will focus on.  The problem with this many platoon players is you are assuming all players are equal in ability and they aren't.

[Morland]

I don't agree with the pessimism about resigning Gray. If he wants to return the FO should offer him enough of a contract to make it happen. I think the FO has to sign either Gray or Maeda. People who expect Paddack to be a number 2 starter based on his limited appearances are dreaming. If he starts spring training as the number 5 starter that's the right level. This year showed you'd better have seven starters ready due to injuries. Varland, Festa, Winder, SWR, Dobnak, et all, will be competing for those slots. There will obviously be some sort of trade to resolve the second base/right field oversupply. Polanco and Larnach are the most likely to be traded IMO. Trade targets; relief pitching, backups who can hit and not strike out as much. I expect they will keep Taylor due to uncertainty about Buxton. That's also the reason they have to resolve the second base oversupply. They can't go into 2024 expecting Buxton to make a full recovery and slotting Julien at DH. They are best served to keep the DH free for Buxton and to rotate players thru it for a rest.

 

[arby58]

12 hours ago, sabeck said:

The Twins won't win a WS much less get to one under the philosophy the FO has about baseball.  You'd think the Guardians would have taught them about pitching last year.  Let your starters pitch.  They are your best pitchers.  Let them pitch.    The Twins still don't do that nearly enough. 

This is just wrong. The Twins were tied for third for average innings pitched by starting pitchers (5.5). Only Houston and Seattle were better. The Guardians were at 5.3.

[Boswell]

YES!  Our -3- victories put the 0-18 losing streak in the distant past, akin to the Covid-19 pandemic.  The franchise can move beyond that sad, miserable era and claim some normalcy. 
 

C4 has righted the ship and pointed it in a new direction.  2024 and beyond looks good!

[Mark G]

5 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

I don’t think your observation of how the team was/is built is accurate. Ober gave up a couple HR’s in his start but it was his first playoff start after his first full-time season as a starter. Not a terrible thing. Sonny Gray didn’t pitch well in 2nd Series - can’t give up 4 runs in first inning but this was preceded by an excellent outing against a tough Toronto club. Joe Ryan looked good in game 4. Probably the biggest misconception is that we were forced to use our Pen & that bit us! Our manager, rightfully so, laid out a plan that would utilize the number of fresh arms we had in the Pen. Thielbar gave up a hit to Alvarez (who hit nearly .500 for series) and struck out Tucker. Then he made a pitch that he says he would throw in the same spot, the same way, 100 times. Abreu made a good swing on a good pitch - it happens. Our Pen then held the Astros scoreless for the next 5 plus innings.

We were a break away from winning Game 4 & forcing Houston to face Pablo Lopez again.

The AB stats make sense in that the norm for a typical FULL season is 550 plus AB’s. It’s ridiculous to think our platoon system is why we didn’t have guys get nearly that many AB’s! 
 

Lewis & Polanco & Kirilloff …….3 core starters, were all on the IL at the season’s start. Kirilloff came late April - Polanco early May - Lewis late May. All 3 guys would go back on IL later in the season.

Buxton played 85 games.

Kepler was hurt (on IL) in May with a bad toe.

Taylor was out with a bad hamstring - IL.

Castro out with bad back & then paternity leave.

Farmer got hit in the face - a month on IL.

Wallner is a rookie. Julien is a rookie.

The catchers are the only true platoon guys we have………the rest of the guys were filling in for the regulars who, unfortunately were hurt & unable to play regularly.

Tough to get 500 plus AB’s if you can’t play.

I am somewhat lost by the argument presented here.  Baldelli himself has said over and over he believes in his platoon system, and Ted here on TD wrote an article just last Monday on the platoon system that has been used for some time.  The catchers are the only true platoon guys?  Not hardly, especially considering they are both right handed hitters.  They play a position that beats them up a lot, so they split the time to stay as healthy as possible; that is not a true platoon at all.  Right vs left match ups is a platoon system and Baldelli plays it, for better or worse.  That is why we have one guy over 500 plate appearances, not injuries.    

As for the starters, we had so much confidence in them that we started our number 3 starter twice, and the two of them pitched 5 innings combined.  Baldelli even told us that his plan for game 4 of the Houston series was to pitch Ryan one time through the lineup and then start the train of relievers; in other words, a bullpen game.  Hard to argue that we were more than 2 deep in post season starting pitching, I would submit, if Baldelli himself had so little faith in his 3rd and 4th starters he pulled them that quickly.  You were right when you said it is wrong to assume we were forced to use our bullpen as much as we did; it was by choice from the very beginning.  And you appear to agree with the choice.  Cool.  You may very well be right.  But that only strengthens the argument that we were only 2 deep in quality starters in the post season, which to me suggests we are not on the cusp of a WS anytime soon.  I happen to believe we need at least one more top line starter, not more bullpen games, and we need to put our best players on the field, both offensively and defensively, and let them carry the club.  Who knows, I could be wrong; I have been wrong before.  As a matter of fact, I can still remember the time I was.  😎

Just my extremely humble opinion/observations.  😌

[Johnny Ringo]

The core for sustained playoff success is certainly there for 2024 and beyond . 

The implosion of the BSN empire is a wild-card for off-season FO activity. One would have to think the 2024 budget is lower than 2023's. (Please don't hit me with the Pohlad pocket protector label. Reality is reality.)

But the whole league may be dealing with a financial reckoning. The RSN issue is hitting many teams. The drunken sailor Mets and Padres are re-trenching. (I would think being a minority partner of the Padres makes the cool parking space look like a really bad idea right now.)  

So maybe a little less money is OK. Kepler and Polanco are redundant budget savers. Would I rather have Julien, Martin or Lee and $10 million over Polanco? Yes I would. $10 million helps replace Gray. I love Jorge but bad legs don't age well. 

I was really encouraged by Rocco this year.  Forever I have been a Baldelli neutralist, but I thought he managed nearly flawlessly in the playoffs. Frankly, I could of done without the Buxton AB which seemed like a participation ribbon, but that's nitpicking. (I am a huge Buxton fan but he hadn't faced a MLB pitch in two months.) Rocco and Tingler seemed to have found a groove.

But, the great news is that people care again about the Twins. Being at Target Field last week was amazing. I hope to see everyone there next October. 

[LewFordLives]

I am one of those who believes there's at least some degree of luck that goes into a post-season run. You can do everything right, but it ultimately comes down to who's healthiest and who's on a hot streak. The Orioles, Dodgers, Rays, and Braves all had the best records, but they all had injuries to key pitchers down the stretch.

The Twins will need to replace Sonny Gray, but if someone gets hurt, or the young guys don't step up, they could easily finish behind Cleveland and Detroit.

[stringer bell]

Haven’t read all the replies, but I think this year’s Twins team actually compares with the four remaining teams. It certainly does in terms of record and run differential. So, they don’t have that far to go. Losing Gray and Maeda but adding Paddack would indicate that one additional starter is needed. Given the injuries and history of Buxton, Kirilloff and Lewis, depth must be maintained. 
 

I would expect a bounce back from Correa in his age-29 season. I also would expect roster turnover to reduce the strikeouts, although Julien and Wallner (added this year) increased the K percentage. If the team loses Pagán they really need to add a veteran reliable reliever and the pitching staff was heavily right handed, so adding a lefty reliever and/or starter would be optimal. 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Answer this question:

If Buxton, Correa, and Vazquez performed at their expected levels this year, how many more games would they have won?  How different would things with an expected Buxton and Vazquez in the lineup (add a healthy Kiriloff and Lewis).

Any team that makes the playoffs has a legitimate chance to win the WS.  Ask the top seeds how things worked out for them this year. 

They were close this year and have a large push of quality youth (both pitching and hitting). Stop blaming the FO for losing a best 3-of-5 series. They are a lot closer than people think.