Byron Buxton, Bailey Ober, and Other ALDS Roster Decisions

[Cody Christie]

The Twins are moving on to the ALDS to face the defending World Series champions. What decisions must the team make when finalizing its roster for the second round?

Image courtesy of Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

The Wild Card series is a condensed three-game set that requires different roles on the 26-man roster. Teams need fewer starting pitchers, allowing the team to add other bullpen or bench options. Entering the ALDS, the Twins will get to reset their 26-man roster, and there are some decisions to make before Saturday.

Will Byron Buxton Be Healthy Enough to Play?
Buxton didn't make the Wild Card roster after dealing with multiple injuries during the 2023 season. He has been out since the beginning of August with a hamstring strain, and he dealt with knee issues during his rehab appearances with the St. Paul Saints. He made two rehab appearances at the end of the Saints' season and went 1-for-8. Buxton also didn't participate in the team's workout leading into the Wild Card Series. 

Twins manager Rocco Baldelli had to have an emotional conversation with Buxton about him not being on the Wild Card roster. He told reporters, "I probably could play, but it's all about contributing. I can go out there and do what I want to do, but it probably wouldn't be at the speed I want it to be. It's one of those where I don't want to hurt the team. I don't want to put a team in a bad spot with me coming back at 50-, 60-, 70-percent. There's guys in here that have done a great job of keeping us where we're at. It's just knowing your body, knowing who you are and putting yourself in a place to help the team."

There will only be five days between the start of the Wild Card Series and the opening game of the ALDS. It's tough to imagine that Buxton has made significant improvements over the last week so that the Twins would consider putting him on the ALDS roster. There's a chance the team wants him to serve in a bench bat role, but they would likely need him to be able to play outfield too. Can he help the team? That remains doubtful at this point. 

Which Starter Fills the Fourth Rotation Spot?
Minnesota only needed two starting pitchers for the Wild Card Series, but Joe Ryan was scheduled to start Game 3, if necessary. Since the ALDS begins on Saturday, Joe Ryan is the likely starter, but he has been home run prone this year, and Houston is a dangerous offensive team. The Twins may want to pitch one of their other starters in Houston and push Ryan back to Game 4 at Target Field. 

Pablo Lopez can start Game 2 on regular rest, putting Sonny Gray pitching in a pivotal Game 3 in front of the home crowd. Bailey Ober wasn't on the Wild Card Series roster, but he will likely be needed to start Game 4 if the ALDS series lasts that many games. Minnesota can also turn the fourth spot over to Kenta Maeda, who pitched well in the second half. It seems likely for the Twins to follow this rotational plan (*if necessary):
Game 1: Ryan
Game 2: Lopez
Game 3: Gray
Game 4*: Ober
Game 5*: Lopez

Which Wild Card Series Players Don't Make the ALDS Roster?
Kody Funderburk was a surprise inclusion on the Wild Card roster, but the Twins thought an additional left-handed pitcher would be helpful. In 11 appearances, he posted a 0.75 ERA with a 0.92 WHIP and a 19-to-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio. His spot on the ALDS roster will likely need to be filled by Ober as the fourth starter. Minnesota could keep Funderburk and use Maeda as the fourth starter, but he shifted to the bullpen over the season's final games, and the team might want him to stay in that role. 

On the position player side, Andrew Stevenson is the only roster spot that might be up in the air. Stevenson offers a unique skill set as a pinch runner and defense replacement. If Buxton makes the roster, Stevenson likely needs to be the player removed from the bench. It seems most likely for the team to keep Stevenson, especially since Buxton's health is still questionable. 

Do you think Buxton makes the ALDS roster? How would you organize the team's rotation for the second round? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

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[mikelink45]

No to Buxton - his statement about not being 100% is enough to convince me.  

Yes to Ober, I might start him over Ryan.

[Kevin Urdahl]

I would start Ober in Game 1, and bump Ryan to game 4, if needed. Keep Maeda in the pen. He will be valuable there. I think Paddock is the other option that Ober could replace. Funderburk has pitched so well and I love having a second lefty in the pen. As much as I'd love to see Buxton. I don't think he's ready. Maybe the World Series?!

[ToddlerHarmon]

I'd rather they keep Funderburk on the roster and drop Paddack. Houston has dangerous lefties and we are more likely to need a second lefty than another multi-inning reliever with Maeda and Varland both available.

I'd also like to see Ober get the call for Game 1 in Houston.

[DJL44]

With Lewis still hurt I think Stevenson as a pinch runner and defensive replacement is more valuable than Buxton as a pinch hitter.

[Kenny Powers]

The Buxton decision is easy (for me anyway).  I haven't seen anything to believe he's healthy to play in the field and we have better options for DH right now.  So - I don't need him on the roster anymore this year.  Get healthy and come back next year to take your CF job back.

The Game 1 start is very difficult.  On the service, it should be Joe Ryan.  But Ober has really been pitching great.  This is a tough call.  My gut says they go with Ryan to avoid any hurt ego/feelings.  But I don't think they could go wrong starting Ober.  I think Maeda is the designated long man to come in and save the bullpen in case of blowout.

Funderburk - I feel he will be useful as a lefty.  I wouldn't drop him.  Especially as these series start to go longer.

Stevenson (while situationally useful), I think is the one guy I feel is a luxury spot right now.  If they make any changes, I feel his spot would be the one to use.

[Karbo]

IMO they activate Ober in Stevensons place, Start Ober in game 1, let Ryan go game 4. Ryan has struggled on the road and pitched much better at home. According to the Pioneer Press they are planning on carrying an extra pitcher, which is why I think they drop Stevenson off the roster.

[D.C Twins]

Buxton stays Off (no evidence that he can meaningfully contribute this year) 

Ober On and pitches game 1 with Maeda available to piggy back

Stevensons Off to make room for Ober

Funderburk stays for LH option and Paddack (sp) stays for potential long extra-inning need

Done.... aaaaand... done :)

[BsuNemo]

We can't throw Theilbar every game so I think Funderburk needs to stay.  Paddack is probably the odd man out if we bump a pitcher for Ober.  

No to Buck - best wishes for a return to health and centerfield next year

Ober with a quick hook for Maeda in game one

Lopez game two

Gray  game three

Ryan game four

My fear is Lopez vs lefty Valdez - that could end up a 1-0 or 2-1 game.

[DJL44]

19 minutes ago, Kenny Powers said:

The Game 1 start is very difficult.  On the service, it should be Joe Ryan.  But Ober has really been pitching great.  This is a tough call.  My gut says they go with Ryan to avoid any hurt ego/feelings.  But I don't think they could go wrong starting Ober.  I think Maeda is the designated long man to come in and save the bullpen in case of blowout.

Telling Joe Ryan "You're starting Game 4" should soothe any hurt feelings.

[FlyingFinn]

31 minutes ago, BsuNemo said:

We can't throw Theilbar every game so I think Funderburk needs to stay.

I disagree. Thielbar has pitched on two consecutive days multiple times this year and certainly can pitch 5 days out of 7.

But I also want Funderburk. I can see Ober or Ryan get to a spot where Funderburk comes in for the last out of an inning against a LH. Then, put Maeda in the very next inning as the bridge to the 7th inning.

Add Ober to the roster and remove Stephenson (or Paddack if we think the pinch runner/late inning defense is more valuable than adding the 13th pitcher).

[PDX Twin]

I say use Ryan in Game #1 because it's a game we're likely to lose anyway against Verlander. Then come back (and win) with our two aces in #2 and #3 and have Ober start #4 at home to close it out.

[chpettit19]

4 hours ago, PDX Twin said:

I say use Ryan in Game #1 because it's a game we're likely to lose anyway against Verlander. Then come back (and win) with our two aces in #2 and #3 and have Ober start #4 at home to close it out.

Why not start Varland in game #2 because it's a game we're likely to lose anyway against Framber? Twins are much worse against lefties than righties so we should assume they'll lose to the lefty as well. Save the "two aces" for games 3 and 4. But then Verlander will be back for game 5 so we'll likely lose that game anyway and are just doomed.

Sarcasm^

You don't save anyone, or use players because you're "likely to lose anyway" for any postseason game. You take your best and you put them against their best as often as possible in the postseason. I'm fascinated by all the people on these boards talking about doing anything other than starting Lopez games 2 and 5, and Gray in game 3 so he'd be lined up for game 1 of the ALCS. You throw your best guys as often as possible, and you don't consider playing anyone who isn't your best option at anytime from now until the season ends.

[chpettit19]

Falvey sure sounded like he's leaning 13 pitchers so I'd expect Stevenson out and Ober in.

I'd drop Paddack and add Ober as I'd prefer 12 pitchers in a 5 game series that has 2 off days, and the ability to pinch run Stevenson late if needed. 

[BsuNemo]

29 minutes ago, FlyingFinn said:

I disagree. Thielbar has pitched on two consecutive days multiple times this year and certainly can pitch 5 days out of 7.

But I also want Funderburk. I can see Ober or Ryan get to a spot where Funderburk comes in for the last out of an inning against a LH. Then, put Maeda in the very next inning as the bridge to the 7th inning.

Add Ober to the roster and remove Stephenson (or Paddack if we think the pinch runner/late inning defense is more valuable than adding the 13th pitcher).

I forget there's off days - It is just nice to have that second lefty.

With Lewis dealing with his hammy and MAT coming off a hammy issue and did Castro have a hammy issue too?? it would be nice to have someone to pinch run late in games.

[DocBauer]

No on Buxton. If he wasn't ready for the first series, he's not ready a couple days later. And let's be honest, right now we're better off with Lewis than Buxton and it's probably not even close. 

Maeda is still pretty much stretched out, and well rested. He could easily slide back in to the rotation if wanted. But I think they moved him to the pen with a deliberate plan in mind and won't change now. So Ober is added.

At that point, it's Funderburk, Paddack, or Stevenson losing a spot. 

I really like the extra speed guy on the bench in Stevenson, and he's a good defensive OF to free Castro up to help in the INF if needed. And while he's still unproven over any length of time at the ML level, I like having the 2nd LH in the pen with Funderburk. The Astros have some pretty good LH bats. Hard to tell Paddack he's not being kept after he's worked so hard to get back, but he just seems like the logical arm to leave off, IMO.

[Parfigliano]

2 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

No to Buxton - his statement about not being 100% is enough to convince me.  

Yes to Ober, I might start him over Ryan.

No Buxton.  No Buxton until next year.  Just no Buxton in 2023.  Period.  Exclamation point.

[jorgenswest]

Thoughts as I read the thread.

• If they do roster Buxton I have more confidence in his contribution since they were willing to sit him in the wild card series. They would sit him again u less they saw enough improvement.
• One pitcher can start twice in normal rest. Lopez starts games 2 and 5.
• The Twins OPS against lefties after the all star break is .809.
• *Valdez had more success against right handed batters than left handed batters in 2023. The outlook is better for this game than it was in the first half.
• I don’t think any decisions about the roster or rotation will be based on whether or not someone will have hurt feelings.

*note: Splits for left handed starters have a skew. They tend to only face the better left handed hitters so the quality of opponent in the left half of the split is higher.

[CRF]

No way on Buck. Keep Funderburk. Keep Ober and start him in game 1, with Kenta in relief. Ryan would get rocked down there. We have to win 1 of the 2 in Hou to have any chance in this series. 

[Logi_Clevs]

2 hours ago, D.C Twins said:

Buxton stays Off (no evidence that he can meaningfully contribute this year) 

Ober On and pitches game 1 with Maeda available to piggy back

Stevensons Off to make room for Ober

Funderburk stays for LH option and Paddack (sp) stays for potential long extra-inning need

Done.... aaaaand... done :)

[GNess]

Buxton is capable of hitting we assume? So is Stevenson's speed and defense more likely to be a factor than Buck pinch hitting/batting? I am not convinced that is the case.

Plus, Buxton is a team leader and a long term asset of some value to the Twins future. I don't think you can really say that about Stevenson.

[tony&rodney]

Ober is a good choice for either Game 1 or 4. I think he would be really good on Saturday. Ryan goes in Game 4.

Maeda is ready right away when he is needed. Funderburk is someone to keep but no surprise if he is left off the team.

Stevenson provides speed and good defense. The Twins can run on Houston. Pinch running late and the added defense with a lead are huge in the playoffs.

This addition of Ober, keeping Funderburk and Stevenson means that someone from Round One gets left off the roster. I think Chris Paddack has looked really good but the Twins need that roster spot; he is off the roster.

[BD57]

Buck @ less than 100% is a "no go" for me.

He doesn't bring enough to the party if he's less than 100%.  If he aggravated / reinjured himself, then what.

Even if we could replace him on the roster next game due to injury, it doesn't make sense to have someone you really can't count on being / remaining available on the roster.

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, BD57 said:

Buck @ less than 100% is a "no go" for me.

He doesn't bring enough to the party if he's less than 100%.  If he aggravated / reinjured himself, then what.

Even if we could replace him on the roster next game due to injury, it doesn't make sense to have someone you really can't count on being / remaining available on the roster.

FYI, if he aggravated/reinjured himself they could replace him. He'd then be out for the rest of that series and the following one. 

I wouldn't carry him on any roster the rest of the postseason (assuming he's never getting back to 100% this year), but just wanted to let you know how the system works in the playoffs. You can replace injured players, but they have to sit the rest of that series and the next.

[umterp23]

No to Buxton.  The team has been on a roll since he hit the IL.  Plain and simple, one tool wonder of trying to hit a baseball and not able to do anything else is a liability at this stage of season.  Lewis is your DH.  Buxton is the "cheer"leader we need on the bench is his sweatshirt.  Like the guy but he isn't helping this playoff push.  

[MGM4706]

Buxton no. Paddock out when spot is needed 

[darin617]

8 hours ago, DJL44 said:

With Lewis still hurt I think Stevenson as a pinch runner and defensive replacement is more valuable than Buxton as a pinch hitter.

When heathy Buxton is a fast runner. He has always felt like a freak of nature to me. So much talent but here's the weird part. To me I have always felt like Baseball wasn't his first choice of sport to play. Such great raw talent that was never fulfilled. 

He could run down any flyball hit out there. His problem in the outfield was he didn't seem like he knew how to dive for a ball and couldn't judge the distance to the wall.

Very fast base runner, but it seemed like he ran too fast and never seemed to learn how to slide properly.

Then once all the launch angle crap started it seemed to ruin his swing since he seemed to be always trying to hit a homer every at bat.

[Whitey333]

If a pitcher needs to be removed it would seem paddock is the logical choice.  I think he will be a good starting pitcher starting in 2024.  

Buxton:  absolutely should not be on any playoff roster at all this year.  As in every year with Buxton it's wait until next year.  What they are waiting for is another story for another time.  After all its been 8 years waiting on him.  The team has played much better since he hasn't been clogging up the lineup with his automatic outs.  To put him on the roster would be a great disservice to the team and fans.  He can't play.  Why take a roster spot from someone that has helped the team reach the playoffs.  It makes no sense.

[Linus]

The best reason to not put Buck on the roster is that there will be almost no pinch hit against a lefty opportunities in this series.