I'm officially done with Rocco

[Woof Bronzer]

4 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

If a team plans to keep a manager around, they often extend them before they can enter a lame duck season just to avoid potential drama and distractions. That's what appeared to happen with Baldelli. And while the Twins were disappointing in 2022, it's hard to pin much of that on Rocco. Having one of the worst injury records in baseball was the most obvious culprit, which is why the front office hired Paparesta.

I believe they extended him after 2021.  

If he gets a pass for 2022 due to injuries, I assume he also absolved from any credit for 2019, when they had the (IIRC) 2nd best injury record in baseball?

[MinnInPa]

14 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

I believe others do disagree, including Baldelli. Baseball has a long drawn out season that includes numerous substitutions and player usages that seem at odds with what makes sense to one person or another. A guy like Paul Molitor has forgotten more about baseball than the entire collective understanding of the game of Twins Daily readers, which naturally includes me as well.  We are actually likely to know more about running a Fortune 500 company than how to manage an MLB team.

Sometimes it seems that some baseball fans are more attuned to football and the immediacy of wins each week than the slog of a long season. I don't follow football at all so maybe that is a bad comparison and I don't mean to offend anyone at all. Baseball is different in how a team (manager/front office) needs to view the larger picture. MLB is totally different than the minors, college, or amateur ball. Heck college is more like town ball than professional baseball. Despite playing and managing hundreds of games I can confidently say that I am in no position to suggest what a MLB manager should or should not do in any given situation. Of course I have my opinions but these are just for entertainment purposes. Nobody is going to pay me millions to make a decision on managing a MLB team. It is best to just enjoy the competition and entertainment.

Arozarena hit a monster home run and Tampa Bay won. The Twins had their chances. Tampa Bay had their chances. Each team made a few mistakes too. It was a competitive game. There is another game tomorrow. The Twins really should put their feet down on the White Sox.

Jax threw a horrible pitch...no reason not to just throw something close ..but off the plate and deal with the next batter. the guy has 10 losses as reliever..totally unacceptable..he needs help...just grooves his very avg fastballs and spends too much time in the middle of the zone..can never be trusted with even a 3 run lead..chance are he gives up a 3 run shot

[tony&rodney]

3 minutes ago, MinnInPa said:

Jax threw a horrible pitch...no reason not to just throw something close ..but off the plate and deal with the next batter. the guy has 10 losses as reliever..totally unacceptable..he needs help...just grooves his very avg fastballs and spends too much time in the middle of the zone..can never be trusted with even a 3 run lead..chance are he gives up a 3 run shot

I think you meant to put a comment in the game thread. I did not comment on Jax. No problem though.

FWIW, Jax did not throw a single fastball to Arozarena. Arozarena hit a sweeper for the home run. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

18 minutes ago, Woof Bronzer said:

I believe they extended him after 2021.  

If he gets a pass for 2022 due to injuries, I assume he also absolved from any credit for 2019, when they had the (IIRC) 2nd best injury record in baseball?

I don't give him any particular credit for 2019. I don't give managers much credit most of the time either way. I think their biggest influence is in the area we have the least visibility, clubhouse management.

[Jack C]

Just the last couple of decisions?  Rocco is Rocco and there is no way Twins will ever streak because it isn't in his DNA.  Important baseball is all about understanding and motivating players.  He's an analytics guy who is severely limited when it comes to getting guys to play up.  I'm not saying we're dysfunctional like the Sox.  I am saying you can tell a team that is champing at the bit to play.  They have an edge to them.  That either starts at the top down which is why great managers find success time after time (Billy Martin probably didn't understand analytics...) or they are built around a player or players who inspire and demand the best from those in the dugout.  Which came first?  Chicken or the egg?  Do teams get animated when good things happen?  Or do good things happen when somebody demands they do?  I believe it's both.  And the latter is largely absent in the Baldelli era.  He's a product of a generation of baseball people enamored with numbers; we have a number of Twins Daily members who like to run that track as well.  I believe understanding percentages is important but takes a backseat to motivating human beings.  This Twins team had the potential with that surprising starting staff to win 95. 

[Cap'n Piranha]

I don't know if Rocco is the reason the Twins lose, but I do know he's not the reason they win.

[Mike Sixel]

To be clear, I have no strong opinion on him overall. I do have a strong opinion about how much Vazquez plays, and that he should never, ever, PH. 

[Dave Borton]

19 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Today's managerial misconduct (PHing Vazquez) moved me over the edge.

Just simply can't stand him routinely getting outmanaged. And today was freaking ridiculously bad.

While I don't care for Baldelli, the fault lies in a FO that would have had him for breakfast had he not used Vazquez.

Lots of reasons to dislike Baldelli but he is performing exactly like FO desires.

The field manager/FO structure and philosophy of the game has made a paradigm shift, often not for the better. Pendulum has swung way to one side. It will begin to ebb back but maybe not in my time or the time I would desire.

[jdgoin]

1 hour ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

So you're saying that a team with a historically good offense doesn't platoon much because their hitters are exceptional.

In theory you don't want too many platoons. You want everyday players, which we know isn't always possible. Platooning should be to fill a hole and stretch resources. Not necessarily how you write out 1 through 9.

[jdgoin]

5 minutes ago, davidborton said:

While I don't care for Baldelli, the fault lies in a FO that would have had him for breakfast had he not used Vazquez.

Lots of reasons to dislike Baldelli but he is performing exactly like FO desires.

The field manager/FO structure and philosophy of the game has made a paradigm shift, often not for the better. Pendulum has swung way to one side. It will begin to ebb back but maybe not in my time or the time I would desire.

This. Exactly.

[jdgoin]

In about 2013 I had made out lineups for Gardy vs L & vs R based on projected wOBA splits. Against RHP I had Morneau like 3rd or 4th. He was one of our best hitters vs RH based on projected wOBA. But against lefties I'm not sure he cracked the top 9, but I still put him like 7th based out of respect for Justin and knowing not having him in the lineup wasn't going to go well.

Gardy and I talked about the lineups and he noticed Morenau in the 7 slot. He told me if I hit him 7th against lefties, I'll lose him against RH as well. It was something to think about. There is always more going on in a clubhouse than anybody knows. 

[Dave Borton]

29 minutes ago, Jack C said:

we have a number of Twins Daily members who like to run that track as well.  I believe understanding percentages is important but takes a backseat to motivating human beings

This was Joe Maddon's philosophy which is give me data, I assure you I will use it but don't bury me with it. I am getting to know my people, working on basics of ball, forming relationship with them and getting the most out of them. (My takeaway from his book.)

[Battle ur tail off]

I have been done with him mid-way through last year. He rarely uses gut feel, it is always what the spreadsheet says. 

My eyes tell me that Vasquez is the worst hitter on the team. Worse than Gallo or anyone. I NEVER use this guy to pinch hit. Ever. 

Rocco does this same thing with pitching. I have stated before that I am not 100% if his way works better or worse over the long haul, but I am convinced that on a "game by game" basis, he will generally be outmanaged by the other dugout. 

1 hour ago, MinnInPa said:

Jax threw a horrible pitch...no reason not to just throw something close ..but off the plate and deal with the next batter. the guy has 10 losses as reliever..totally unacceptable..he needs help...just grooves his very avg fastballs and spends too much time in the middle of the zone..can never be trusted with even a 3 run lead..chance are he gives up a 3 run shot

About Jax. He has actually been decent lately I thought he had it back until the Mets game and this one.

That pitch hit out of the yard yesterday though, was ON THE CATCHER or bench. Pitch right before that was a breaking ball, sat and spun came out of his hand bad. The ding dongs go right back to it and he threw one that hung and bang. Throw the damn fastball there guys out of the zone.

[Jocko87]

3 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

9th Inning pinch hit. Vazquez doesn't excite me about I'm Ok with the move in that moment. Barely Ok because Julien is the better hitter but at least it wasn't the 3rd, 4th, 5th or 6th inning where the right handed pinch hitter has to face the right hander closer in the 9th.   

However... Let's be clear. The number in that red circle is 42. It took 96 games to get that many AB's against lefties.

The Twins are self manufacturing the need to pinch hit Vazquez for Julien in the 9th inning.  

42 AB's against lefties in 96 games. It's going to take a long time to repair those numbers at the pace the Twins are allowing him to travel.

I'd actually like to suggest that we stop quoting 42 AB's out of fairness to Julien.   

I can justify this move at this time... Barely... but I can't justify that the Twins have created this need for Vazquez by decree more than Julien has created this need through performance.

42 AB's ain't much. 

 

I'll see your 42 AB's and raise you 200ish minor league at bats with varying levels of success.  42 at bats ain't the only data they are using but it does matter.  The 42 at bats against the adults are extremely bad, both in the numbers and the eye test.  If his progression continues to track he should eventually look like a functional hitter against lefties but he's not there yet. 

The big leagues in September on a contending team aren't the place for random experience experiments.  I did get more worked up over these type of moves in May but a lot of those were also in the 5th inning. 

[Jocko87]

Also @USAFChief right now.

 

[Alex]

It's weird to me that in a near-meaningless game, where the move actually gives the team a better chance to win is the breaking point for some.  

I generally think people focus too much on moves that don't go well.  Meanwhile, in the last few series, he's had some moves that really paid off in the pinch-hitting and pinch-running department.  Those mostly go un-noticed.   There's not often posts where people say they are jumping on the Baldelli Bandwagon because he pinch ran Andrew Stevenson who forced the opposing team into errors to score a key run.

If you'd have said that a manager's two best players are going to underperform for the season and that he's still going to lead that team to win the division, most of us would be praising that manager (and he is going to get votes for Manager of the Year). 

Sure, it's the weakest division in the league, but would you rather he not actually win it?   If he'd had the roster that he has now for the whole season (and Kepler hadn't been a dead weight during the first half), this team would easily have won 90 games.  I generally don't think that managers matter as much as people think, but I do think he's well liked by the players and so many of his moves were under a microscope early in the season because of all the close games and an underperforming offense.

[Riverbrian]

53 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

I'll see your 42 AB's and raise you 200ish minor league at bats with varying levels of success.  42 at bats ain't the only data they are using but it does matter.  The 42 at bats against the adults are extremely bad, both in the numbers and the eye test.  If his progression continues to track he should eventually look like a functional hitter against lefties but he's not there yet. 

The big leagues in September on a contending team aren't the place for random experience experiments.  I did get more worked up over these type of moves in May but a lot of those were also in the 5th inning. 

I read your posts... You have my respect... You are clearly an informed poster.  

He's 24 years old. He was 23 in AAA... He was 22 in AA. This guy can hit and his advancement has been impressive.

If there is a platoon disparity let him work through it with exposure to it. Much like they have let him work through his defensive issues with continued exposure to playing defense.   

I am still worked up over these types of moves in May. Those pre-all star break AB's are preparation for September and beyond and it's not like the Right Handed hitters that we have been utilizing in his place were killing it in May, June and July.    

I agree with you... It's September now. I better not see him hitting against lefties in the playoffs. If I see it... it will be another example of the Twins painting themselves into a corner when it matters.   

[USAFChief]

47 minutes ago, Alex said:

It's weird to me that in a near-meaningless game, where the move actually gives the team a better chance to win is the breaking point for some.  

 

I don't agree with either of those things.

I also don't agree Baldelli is getting manager of the year votes, FTR.

[Alex]

1 minute ago, USAFChief said:

I don't agree with either of those things.

I also don't agree Baldelli is getting manager of the year votes, FTR.

You don't have to agree with either, but other than opinion it's hard to argue I would think.  The Twins chances to win the division was over 99% at that point (and got better later that day).  I don't know how much meaning you can ascribe to a game when it's the toughest game they will play the rest of the season and there is a 2 in 1,000 chance that they don't make the playoffs.   If they somehow miss the playoffs it will be because they played horribly and lost to much worse teams (and there will be significantly more important games).

The evidence, as mentioned, also points to Vasquez being the better option.   It's fine if you don't agree with the move, but it's relatively minor (the Twins chances to win were slim no matter what -- what percentage would you ascribe that Julien gave over Vasquez in your opinion?). and it's amazing that people think they know these players better than a person who seems them a lot more than we do.  

We'll have to wait and see about the last one, of course.

[Alex]

FWIW I thought it was a terrible move when I saw it happen but I didn't know just how bad Julien was against LHP and adding in the fact that he's been injured, I was swayed.

 

[Squirrel]

3 hours ago, jdgoin said:

In about 2013 I had made out lineups for Gardy vs L & vs R based on project wOBA for splits. Against RHP I had Morneau like 3 or 4th. He was one of our best hitters vs RH based on projected wOBA. But against lefties I'm not sure he cracked the top 9, but I still put him like 7th based off of respect for Justin and knowing not having him in the lineup wasn't going to go well.

Gardy and I talked about the lineups and noticed Morenau in the 7 slot. He told me if I hit him 7th against lefties, I'll lose him against RH as well. It was something to think about. There is always more going on in a clubhouse than anybody knows. 

Thanks, as always, for your perspectives

[mnfireman]

17 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

That’s hindsight IMO……Griffin Jax looks like Mariano Riviera most outings. didn’t give up a run for 3 months at one point.

Jax has tremendous stuff & needs to pitch better!

Change "Jax" to "Pagan" and everybody on TD would lose their mind. 2023 Jax is 2022 Pagan and can no longer be trusted in high leverage situations.

[Otaknam]

I understand the frustration w Rocco as manager. My biggest complaint is his over reliance on stats, especially with starting pitchers. We all understand that the more times batters face a pitcher the more comfortable they are. But sometimes a manager has to show confidence and trust in his players and let them keep going. I remember a game two years ago when Ryan has something like 80 pitches through six or seven innings, with only 1 run and very few hits, and was pulled by Baldelli. Heaven forbid Ryan faces a lineup a fourth time! And of course the Twins lost. Imagine if Rocco had managed Bob Gibson, Sandy Koufax, or Blyleven? No HOF for those guys! 

[rwilfong86]

10 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

You don't have your shirt? I have been making them since mid way though the 2019 season.

Maybe it was shipped to my old address?

[FlyingFinn]

People who hate Rocco will remember every move that doesn't work and none that do work. People who love Rocco will do the reverse. Rocco has made a lot of good moves and bad moves this year. I don't like when he pinch hits before the 6th inning unless the other teams bullpen is all right-handed by then. Last year, people complained it was all Rocco's fault for pulling pitchers. This year almost nobody (there are a few, I know) gives Rocco praise for the Twins being in the upper tier of innings thrown by starting pitchers. Rocco's okay, about middle of the road in a game in which the manager doesn't affect the outcome that much IMO.

[TopTwinsFan]

He is the worst Twins manager in my lifetime and it’s not even close. He doesnt know what hes doing and it will hurt when he costs us a chance to advance in the playoffs. You cant win big games with a horrendous manager and he doesnt have a clue how to manage a lineup or bullpen. His move yesterday to bring in the Twins worst hitter, Vazquez, I wont even try to understand it. If this organization truly cared about winning he would be gone already.

[TopTwinsFan]

Always odd to me that to protect Baldelli some will throw away season after season of Twins baseball. He costs the Twins several games per year with his idiocy. You either know baseball or you dont and he doesnt get all the nuance of the game. He was a great hitter who just went out and used his natural talent. Not a clue how to manage a complex game like baseball. 

I try to temper my excitement/love for the Twins with the knowledge he will make jaw droppingly stupid decisions. Like pinch hitting the loser Vazquez with the game on the line yesterday. 

Excited for the playoffs but we better score tons of runs so Baldi doesnt have to make any key decisions or we lose.

[TopTwinsFan]

On 9/13/2023 at 5:58 PM, Rod Carews Birthday said:

And if he gets a hit, Rocco's a genius.  Watching baseball (and managing baseball) is like the stock market.  You can't jump off a cliff at the end a bad day because tomorrow's another day (and another game) and that one might turn out as far to the good as the previous one to the bad.  I'm certain there isn't a manager that any of us would agree with on every call, but he did get them this far and that is a lot more than nothing.  Did I love the call?  Nope, but do we really know what Rocco was trying to find out/do by doing it?  Also no.  It's a marathon.  Not a sprint. 

Vazquez could bat a thousand times in that at bat and he would never get a hit. He looked ready to be out the second he walked up to the plate. He swung at the last pitch like he was happy to be relieved of the pressure to try to win. 

I almost literally turned the game off when he came up. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

8 hours ago, Battle ur tail off said:

I have been done with him mid-way through last year. He rarely uses gut feel, it is always what the spreadsheet says. 

What is it that you think “gut feel” is based on?  Observation - numerical and anecdotal.  That’s statistics (and analytics). 

Gardy used them.  So did TK.  Gene Mauch certainly did.  I’m sure Billy Martin and Sam Mele also.  

Just because Rocco’s gut feel doesn’t line up with ours doesn’t make it instantly wrong.  He has a lot more info at his disposal than we do, plus I’m pretty sure he’s forgotten more about baseball than I’ll ever know.  
 

[stringer bell]

The Twins are underperforming their Pythagorean W-L by four games, which means they are eight games closer to .500 than their runs scored would indicate. Is that Rocco's fault? If they had continued their hitting performance of the first half, I think it would be easier to blame him. The club hasn't been good in one-run games and they've turned in a fair number of poor-hitting efforts. 

Personally, I think more bullpen arms and more diversified offense would have made them better in close games. Some of Baldelli's strategy is suspect to me. I don't think his use of the bullpen has been suspect and he looks a lot smarter about pulling starters when he has better starters.