Can Byron Buxton Actually Get Healthy?

[Ted Schwerzler]

The Minnesota Twins said that Byron Buxton would be ready for the regular season way back during spring training. They said he wouldn’t play centerfield for a period of time. Now, having dealt with more pain during a rehab assignment, will he ever be healthy?

 

Image courtesy of Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports

Coming into the 2022 Major League Baseball season the Minnesota Twins signed Byron Buxton to a seven-year extension worth $100 million. That was a worthwhile gamble because of how talented he is while on the field. It was only $100 million because of how inconsistently he remains on the field.

Last year, fans saw Buxton go down in a heap running the bases against the Boston Red Sox. He played through knee pain routinely dealing with knee drains, and ultimately underwent offseason surgery. At this point, it’s worth wondering if that surgery actually did anything to help, and when or if he’ll ever actually be healthy again.

Sure, the Twins had Buxton on opening day this season, but he couldn’t actually play the field. He was a boat anchor at the designated hitter spot, and after a torrid start, his slumping bat truly became a problem. Offering nothing defensively, and even with Michael A. Taylor putting up career numbers as a regular, Buxton being on dimensional was holding the Twins back.

With a focus towards the postseason, Minnesota put Buxton on the injured list with a hamstring issue. He spent multiple weeks rehabbing the injury, and then it was announced that this was the ideal time to build him back up. Despite having an entire offseason to recover and prepare for the season ahead, directly following hamstring issues was when the club wanted to work him back into the outfield.

Obviously, part of the equation is that the Twins now have alternatives to Buxton in the lineup. Rocco Baldelli can’t afford to sacrifice a consistent roster spot on a slumping bat while Edouard Julien, Royce Lewis, and Matt Wallner all make infinitely more sense to cycle through it. That all adds up to the reality that if Buxton wants to play, he can’t be a part-time asset.

After playing just seven innings as a centerfielder for St. Paul on a Triple-A rehab assignment, Buxton experienced a setback. Soreness in his knee, which probably is to be expected given how little he has done with it over the past handful of months, reared its head and took him out of the lineup.

Buxton has spent multiple days now out of the St. Paul lineup, and wondering when or if he’ll rejoin the Twins is a genuine question. We have seen the talented outfielder spend months on the active roster without having the ability to build back up. We have seen him spend time on the injured list despite being used solely as a designated hitter so he can stay healthy. Now we have seen him try to work his way back, only to again end up shelved.

Minnesota, and Buxton for that matter, haven’t talked much about what exactly is going on with his knee. The surgery to fix whatever took place last season wasn’t exactly defined, and why the timeline for health has been so substantial makes very little sense. No matter what is being tried, it seems as though the Twins outfielder has a body unwilling to cooperate.

At some point it would be great for Baldelli to pencil Buxton in with a number “8” next to his name on the lineup card. How long it has taken for that to happen, and that we appear to be no closer to a return, are concerning for plenty of reasons. Now officially pulled off of his rehab assignment, it seems even less likely he can work his way back in any capacity.

The Twins knew what they were getting into with Buxton, and again, that’s why the deal was where it came in at. It’s one thing for a player to be injury prone, but Buxton bordering on never truly being healthy is something entirely different. All parties involved want to figure this out, but that doesn’t make it any less mind-boggling that they seemingly can’t.

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[DJL44]

You assume he hasn't been doing much with his knee. I assume his life has been nearly constant rehab since the surgery.

Without a medical opinion I can't guess whether he will recover but it doesn't look good so far.

[Ted Schwerzler]

21 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

You assume he hasn't been doing much with his knee. I assume his life has been nearly constant rehab since the surgery.

Without a medical opinion I can't guess whether he will recover but it doesn't look good so far.

There is no assumption he hasn't been doing much. In fact, my assumption is the opposite, which I believe is worse. He has been doing everything he and the Twins can. If they are doing all of that, and are still at this point, that's a really, really negative outcome.

[Hubie29]

To be honest, does it matter? We don't need anything less than 100% healthy for it to matter. We proved we really don't need another .210 hitter with a 30+% K rate.  His defense doesn't make up for that. 

[DJL44]

2 minutes ago, Ted Schwerzler said:

There is no assumption he hasn't been doing much. In fact, my assumption is the opposite, which I believe is worse. He has been doing everything he and the Twins can. If they are doing all of that, and are still at this point, that's a really, really negative outcome.

Quote

 Soreness in his knee, which probably is to be expected given how little he has done with it over the past handful of months

 

[Karbo]

IMO they should leave him on IL until he can go full tilt for a week or two. Probably won't be available for post season, but that's better than having him take up a spot with little to no production!

[Althebum82]

So, at a time when medical knowledge and technology were significantly less advanced, knees were the body area that ultimately brought a somewhat premature conclusion to Tony O's career.  He may have had other body challenges as well, but none were as prominently documented as Buxton's other injuries.

Everyone hopes for healing and recovery for our franchise outfielder.  But knees are still a serious area that can effect everything from sleep and mental health to performance on the job.  He is a fighter and wants to overcome all obstacles that get in his way of being the best he can be.  But some obstacles can ultimately be too much, as we saw with Tony O.

He has provided well for his family, and it may be in his best interest to "walk away" from the game while he still can.

Literally. 

It is certainly a legitimate question to ask and I appreciate this article doing so.

 

[mikelink45]

Wait until next year.  Keep the chemistry that is currently on the Twins and plug in a couple high performing prospects.  We really don't need what Buxton has given this year and we can't spend the time to experiment when the post season is approaching.  I would be more excited to see Taylor back on the team. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Unfortunately there would be little hope that he returns as a good to great player (at least this season), since he hasn't hit well at all this season and hasn't been able to be on the field at all.  I'm just hoping that the Twins don't decide to carry him in the lineup as the shell of his former self he has been this season.  As has been said before by many, as a DH he severely clogs up the lineup and doesn't provide much upside. 

Shut him down.  Get him whatever the best medical procedure he should have is.  Recover and come back next year. 

[tony&rodney]

Can Buxton get healthy? Yes, he can.

Can Buxton get healthy enough to play baseball again in 2023? I cannot imagine how this can happen. So no.

Can Buxton get healthy enough to play baseball again in 2024. Yes, it seems possible at least. Time will tell.

[HokieRif]

35 minutes ago, Karbo said:

IMO they should leave him on IL until he can go full tilt for a week or two. Probably won't be available for post season, but that's better than having him take up a spot with little to no production!

Here’s the thing that I think is just the hard truth - I don’t think he’s ever going to be able to go full tilt ever again. He’s not getting younger, and his body has been horribly unsupportive throughout his career.  Agree with the earlier comment that having him in center field does NOT justify putting his bat back in the lineup right now. We’ve been clicking more than usual with the offense of late, and I would rather not introduce a .200 BA that hasn’t seen MLB action in weeks while we are trying to wrap-up a division title. 
 

Keep him on the IL and start working towards spring training next year. If he’s still not ready to go by that time then I think we may have seen the last MLB action of Buxton in a Twins uniform. 

[HokieRif]

2 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Can Buxton get healthy? Yes, he can.

Can Buxton get healthy enough to play baseball again in 2023? I cannot imagine how this can happen. So no.

Can Buxton get healthy enough to play baseball again in 2024. Yes, it seems possible at least. Time will tell.

As a fan I want to see him play and I want to be optimistic for ‘24. Putting my GM hat on though, I don’t know that Buxton is key component to the team any more. Instead of penciling him in for next year he’s become a bonus addition if he gets healthy. If I’m Falvine I’m happy that we produced an incentive-laden contract with Buck when we did, but I would also be listening to trade offers this offseason. 

[PDX Twin]

It's probably time to read the fine print of his long contract. I don't remember the details and I'm too lazy to do the research.

I remember that he gets paid a lot more if he plays a lot. I don't remember if DH vs. defense plays into that. 

Are there opt-outs or buy-outs built in? Or are the Twins on the hook for $10m/year or so for a long time?

[DJL44]

9 minutes ago, PDX Twin said:

It's probably time to read the fine print of his long contract. I don't remember the details and I'm too lazy to do the research.

I remember that he gets paid a lot more if he plays a lot. I don't remember if DH vs. defense plays into that. 

Are there opt-outs or buy-outs built in? Or are the Twins on the hook for $10m/year or so for a long time?

Byron Buxton Contract Details, Salaries, & Earnings | Spotrac

[DJL44]

Time on the injured list will not grow cartilage in your knee. If that is the issue he will continue to have chronic injury problems with the knee. 

I still hope he's able to return for the playoffs. I'd rather have him on the bench than Jordan Luplow.

[PDX Twin]

1 minute ago, DJL44 said:

Byron Buxton Contract Details, Salaries, & Earnings | Spotrac

Thanks. Disappointing how high the base is relative to the add-ons. I remembered it being a little more incentive-laden But I guess he had a lot of leverage and this is what his agent would accept. 

Sunk cost, I'm afraid. But added to the sunk cost of the Correa contract, it's a lot of deadwood money for a franchise that considers itself to be relatively low-budget. We'd better hope that the kids all turn out to be stars!

[HokieRif]

7 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Byron Buxton Contract Details, Salaries, & Earnings | Spotrac

Crafty move by both parties. $15M annually is still a lot, but Buck at peak performance would have easily commanded the $25M+ that his base + performance incentives add up to.  I don’t think I realized when this was signed that it was plate appearances and not games played that accounted for the tier bonuses. Smart move by the front office. 

[HokieRif]

3 minutes ago, PDX Twin said:

Thanks. Disappointing how high the base is relative to the add-ons. I remembered it being a little more incentive-laden But I guess he had a lot of leverage and this is what his agent would accept. 

Sunk cost, I'm afraid. But added to the sunk cost of the Correa contract, it's a lot of deadwood money for a franchise that considers itself to be relatively low-budget. We'd better hope that the kids all turn out to be stars!

If he maxed out his incentives(if I read it right) I think his base would be 60% of his total comp (15M/25+M). 8M for MVP + a max of 2.5M for hitting all the plate appearances. 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Conjecture and Opinion.

I was expecting to get a little more insight on his injury instead of a rehash of everything we already know, which is nothing.

Thanks Skip.

[Craig Arko]

I have no idea. I guess this is why Medical School is hard.

[olerud]

He's done! Not his fault but it's over johnny, too bad they're saddled with another 6 years of him he needs to retire!

[umterp23]

I would think there is injury insurance type of premium built into professional contracts.  Incentive wise, pretty sure at this pace we are saving some bonus monies which means he isn't playing enough to warrant them.  Tough injury pill to swallow year one year out if he is now the shell of what he was

[Jim wyllie]

I think if they just shut him down for the rest of the season and post season, then have him work towards being ready for next year, is the best option.   If he doesn't come around next year then Emmanuel Rodriguez is in high a now with a good chance at reaching by the end of next season which give the twins another top centerfold prospect to take over for Buxton.   AND if Buxton turns it around and Rodriguez tears up the minors, it give the twins a chance to trade Buxton with some value.    I do know from experience knee injuries can take a long time to come back from especially when there are set backs.

[sampleSizeOfOne]

2 hours ago, Ted Schwerzler said:

Can Byron Buxton Actually Get Healthy?

Yes.

Yes he can.

[USNMCPO]

6 minutes ago, sampleSizeOfOne said:

Yes.

Yes he can.

Not sure I agree with your conclusion. His track record says otherwise.

[SGL]

Has he ever been healthy.  

[sampleSizeOfOne]

I am still pretty sure he can (get healthy), which is perhaps subtly different from has (gotten healthy) or will (get healthy).

Actually.

But i suppose it does depend somewhat on what folk mean by get healthy...

[Reptevia]

They would be absolute fools to put him on the playoff roster. 

[HokieRif]

we've got a sample size of 8 years on Buxton if you include the '20 season.  He's only played a "full" season once, in 2017.  If you take a look across the entirety of his career he has only played in 56% of the total games.  Looking at this year, that percentage is just shy of 61%... meaning we've gotten almost 5% more games played contribution from Buck this year than against his statistical norm. *sigh*

[Parfigliano]

3 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Can Buxton get healthy? Yes, he can.

Can Buxton get healthy enough to play baseball again in 2023? I cannot imagine how this can happen. So no.

Can Buxton get healthy enough to play baseball again in 2024. Yes, it seems possible at least. Time will tell.

I dont think he will ever be healthy enough to play MLB outfield.