Twins Trending Toward Bullpen of Starters

[Ted Schwerzler]

The Minnesota Twins are doing everything they can to hang onto the AL Central division and make a postseason appearance. Attempting to end the playoff losing streak at 18 games, it seems they may do so with a bullpen featuring plenty of starters.

 

Image courtesy of Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

This offseason Derek Falvey and Thad Levine decided to do absolutely nothing for the bullpen. They doubled down on that decision by making no moves at the trade deadline. Brock Stewart had emerged as among the best arms in Rocco Baldelli’s bullpen, but he’s now been hurt for weeks, and both Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax have done all of the heavy lifting.

Despite a desire to add either Matt Moore or Reynaldo Lopez after the Los Angeles Angels parted out their active roster, the Cleveland Guardians scooped up the pair along with Lucas Giolito. Relying now on only internal options, Minnesota’s supplementing the relief corps will likely be done unconventionally.

In the postseason you often don’t need the traditional five-man starting rotation. For a first round series against a wild card team, the Twins will have need for only three starting arms. Given how good Pablo Lopez and Sonny Gray have been this season, Baldelli may opt to use them as much as possible in a five or seven game series as well.

Right now the back of Minnesota’s bullpen is set. Duran and Jax are the late-inning guys, with Caleb Thielbar and Emilio Pagan on the fringes of that group. Stewart would be there if he were to return healthy, but that’s where the falloff comes. Josh Winder has shown flashes, and while Cole Sands has largely gone unused, he has pitched well at Triple-A. Needing to extend the available arms though, expect starters to make the trot behind the outfield wall.

The Twins have already begun this transition with Louie Varland at Triple-A. He worked four innings in relief during his most recent outing, and the new role allowed his fastball an opportunity to jump all the way to triple digits. He’s not all of a sudden going to be Duran-esque, but allowing starters to shove for a shorter period can have positive effects. Minnesota gets an immediate look at his efforts after he was recalled on Monday to replace Cole Sands.

It remains to be seen how Bailey Ober is brought back to Minnesota, and while the home run has still gotten him, Joe Ryan has responded nicely after coming off the injured list. Both may find themselves coming out of the bullpen in the postseason, and although neither are flamethrowers, their stuff could play up slightly when asked to work in shorter stretches.

Kenta Maeda has been on a bit of a slide for Minnesota of late, and Dallas Keuchel doesn’t necessarily have a defined starting role for the postseason either. The former has worked out of the bullpen plenty during his career, and while it is new for the latter, Keuchel dominated a good Texas team in relief a couple of appearances ago.

For the Twins, they’ll hope to avoid mop up or long relief situations when games matter the most, but stretching the overall amount of arms capable from the bullpen is a must. Brent Headrick is getting a look again as a September call-up, and Kody Funderburk was finally called upon to make his debut as well.

There isn’t going to be an opportunity for the Twins to infuse the bullpen with another lockdown arm at this point, and by building a pitching staff capable of simply getting outs, they’ll look at every option possible. It could be weird to see how many current or former starters head to the bullpen during the postseason, but piecing games together behind workhouse starters is a must.

If the Twins are going to make a deep run in the postseason, it will most likely be because of their pitching prowess. Finding a way for that to all contribute, while not utilizing a five-man rotation, is something the coaching staff has a month to dissect.

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[tony&rodney]

Varland is a fine addition to the team. He does not have experience in high leverage situations. Sands has been fine in AAA, but clearly untrusted if one looks at how few times he gets the ball for the Twins.

Getting Ober back in a week after a rest will strengthen the starting staff, allowing others to shift to middle relief (Keuchal). Down towards the last week or so the Twins could get back guys like Paddack and Stewart to allow a break for Jax, Thielbar, Pagan, and Duran. In the meantime, Funderburk, Winder, Headrick, and Floro will need to step up.

[NotAboutWinning]

7 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Varland is a fine addition to the team. He does not have experience in high leverage situations.

I think having your major league debut at Yankee Stadium would qualify as high leverage!

[FlyingFinn]

If we're going deeper than Lopez, Gray, Maeda, Ober, Ryan, Duran, Jax, Thielbar, and Pagan in the first round, it's mop up time anyway. 

[HarmonK03]

Keuchel shouldn't even be on the roster now, but much less when we start the playoffs.

[CRF]

I'd take just about anyone over Sands and Floro. Keuchel needs to go too. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

23 minutes ago, karcherd said:

Keuchel shouldn't even be on the roster now, but much less when we start the playoffs.

Yes, but Ober has obliterated his career innings record this season. Ryan is on track to exceed his innings record too even after his IL stint. Gray hasn’t been a workhorse.

this team was going to need some reinforcements for the August slog, I’m ok with that being a guy you dont feel bad about DFAing when he’s not needed anymore.

[HarmonK03]

4 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Yes, but Ober has obliterated his career innings record this season. Ryan is on track to exceed his innings record too even after his IL stint. Gray hasn’t been a workhorse.

this team was going to need some reinforcements for the August slog, I’m ok with that being a guy you dont feel bad about DFAing when he’s not needed anymore.

As long as they DFA him, the problem is this front office does not seem to be able to move on.  So let's hope they will move on when the time is right.

[strumdatjag]

Dallas Keuchel induces ground balls.  Is there anyone better.to be a reliever when the Twins need a double play (one out with one, two, or three on base)?  Just sayin’.  

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Yes, but Ober has obliterated his career innings record this season. Ryan is on track to exceed his innings record too even after his IL stint. Gray hasn’t been a workhorse.

How many weeks does Ober need to hit the innings reset button? Shouldn't 2-3 weeks off be enough rest that the innings he pitched in April are no longer relevant?

Joe Ryan already had his 2 weeks off. He's pitching great right now.

[Craig Arko]

Dave Bowman upon entering the monolith, “My God, it’s full of starters.”

[Richie the Rally Goat]

41 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

How many weeks does Ober need to hit the innings reset button? Shouldn't 2-3 weeks off be enough rest that the innings he pitched in April are no longer relevant?

Joe Ryan already had his 2 weeks off. He's pitching great right now.

Good question! I have no idea, but my point of reference is marathon training. I’m starting my taper now for a marathon in early October, that I started training for in April.

3-4 weeks lines up, but I’m not sure how comparable this really is, and just like an Il stint, every situation and athlete is different

[KnoblauchWasFramed]

I'm just going to make this call right now....

The Spreadsheet is already whispering into Rocco’s ear and telling him that Dallas Keuchel has made 12 playoff starts in the past and he would be perfect to start a Game 3 on the road with all of that experience.  Plus, The Spreadsheet is also reminding him that no one will ever see it coming just like no one saw that time Rocco went with a former Uber driver with five career starts in a playoff game in Yankee Stadium over Jake Odorizzi who had 15 wins.  

Dallas Keuchel will start a playoff game for the Twins.

Edited September 4, 2023 by Richie the Rally Goat

[wabene]

^^ hope not

[Nine of twelve]

A fifth starter is rarely if ever needed in the postseason and a fourth won’t be needed in the division round if things go really well. A staff of 12 or possibly even 11 should do the trick. Choose the four best starters (Gray, Lopez, Ryan, and probably a rested Ober) and then choose the best remaining 7 or 8 to round out the staff. Simple, but that doesn’t mean the decision is necessarily easy.

[USAFChief]

1 hour ago, KnoblauchWasFramed said:

The Spreadsheet is already whispering into Rocco’ ear and telling him that Dallas Keuchel has made 12 playoff starts in the past and he would be perfect to start a Game 3 on the road with all of that experience.  Plus, The Spreadsheet is also reminding him that no one will ever see it coming just like no one saw that time Rocco went with a former Uber driver with five career starts in a playoff game in Yankee Stadium over Jake Odorizzi who had 15 wins.  

Dallas Keuchel will start a playoff game for the Twins.

Someone should tell The Spreadsheet the Twins will be at home for all of round 1, if they make it.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

1 hour ago, KnoblauchWasFramed said:

I'm just going to make this call right now....

The Spreadsheet is already whispering into Rocco’s ear and telling him that Dallas Keuchel has made 12 playoff starts in the past and he would be perfect to start a Game 3 on the road with all of that experience.  Plus, The Spreadsheet is also reminding him that no one will ever see it coming just like no one saw that time Rocco went with a former Uber driver with five career starts in a playoff game in Yankee Stadium over Jake Odorizzi who had 15 wins.  

Dallas Keuchel will start a playoff game for the Twins.

"The Spreadsheet"?  A computer spreadsheet isn't used to track whether a guy has started a playoff game.  That would be reserved for things that are a bit more complicated (and esoteric) to track.  I am certain that if a decision like that is made it will be a "gut" decision more than anything statistically based.  If I recall, that's what some are asking for.

I don't want to see (and don't think I will see) Keuchel starting a playoff game this season.  That being said, if there is a last second injury or something else catastrophic happens, Dallas Keuchel would be a reasonable guy to have in your pocket if a break glass moment would occur.  He's likely quite a lot more likely to be successful than that Uber driver, even if we are hoping he never gets the call.

[Doctor Wu]

Where has this increase in velocity from Varland come from all of a sudden? Is that for real, or some sort of temporary blip?

[Riverbrian]

Who can hang zeroes and how many can they hang?  

Labels like starter or reliever don't mean anything come playoff time. 

Who are your best arms? Pick Twelve.  

[Major League Ready]

I just hope Brock Stewart is one of the 11-12.  Duran / Jax / Stewart / Thielbar / Pagan plus Ober and Maeda is plenty good depth especially in the opening round.

[wabene]

51 minutes ago, Doctor Wu said:

Where has this increase in velocity from Varland come from all of a sudden? Is that for real, or some sort of temporary blip?

Yes it's interesting. He's been hitting 100 in workouts for a year or so. When he doesn't have to pace himself to go 7 or more, he is one that has quite a bit in the tank. For his recent 4 inning relief outing he was throwing gas the first 2 innings, then settled back to his normal starter velocity of 95+ for the last 2.

[wabene]

The recent bullpen development of Varland is very exciting. We may have a weapon on our hands. Look what a smaller increase in velo has done for Pagan. All his pitches are more effective. Louie is a bulldog and will come out firing no matter the situation. 

[Major League Ready]

The ability to reach back for 100 on occasion is a nice luxury to have.  Not trying to compare Varland to Verlander but he would do that on occasion.   He can use it in relief but he can also pull it out when he really needs it during a start.

[TopGunn#22]

Maeda and Keuchel (if he makes the post season roster) should be bullpen bound.  I would like to see Stewart back.  He and Varland would be some serious gas out of the pen.  To me, I like what I've seen of Funderburk so far.  I'd include him as well.  Paddock is a mystery.  How quickly could he be ready?  To pitch one or two innings at a time, Paddock could be a sneaky arm to add to the pen.  I think their top 3 are Gray, Lopez and Ryan.  Ober gives them another SP option if he returns to form, but they can certainly get through the entire post season (assuming it's a World Series run) with 3 "for sure" SP's and a 4th (Ober) when needed.  

[KBJ1]

I still don't know why we gave away Coulumbe, Cano & McGill. Compared.to the detritus of Sands, Hendrick and virtually everyone else we have cycled through this season.

Those three may not have "clicked" last year, but they certainly had more potential than any of the crap they have brought up this year. That's on you Twins for not getting them on track.

Oh, and they all pitch for first place teams.

 

[chpettit19]

Barring injury, or a sudden cratering of performance, I think Lopez, Gray, and Ryan will be setup as their 3 starters for the WC round with the hope that Ryan actually ends up pitching game 1 of the divisional round. I think Ober and Maeda are going to battle it out the 2nd half of September for the chance to be the #4 starter in the postseason. The other likely headed to the pen as a 2 inning weapon if/when needed, or the 5th starter if they get into some longer series and guys can't keep going on short rest. 

Barring injury, or sudden cratering of performance, I think Duran, Jax, Thielbar, and Pagan have postseason spots locked up. Varland and Ober/Maeda likely also have jobs come October as well. The question then is if they carry 1 or 2 more pitchers. Who gets those spots likely comes down to if Stewart comes back, and how he looks if he does, and if they want a 2nd lefty (I hope they do), which is likely Funderburk's job to lose at this point. Wild card round will be very interesting to see how many arms they choose to keep. If you need more than 6 or 7 in that round you're probably in trouble, and if you need more than 9 you're probably toast. I'd think they'd load up on position players for that round to really let Rocco play his pinch hitting game. I'd guess they still carry 11 arms for that series, but they better not have to use anywhere near that many.

[JD-TWINS]

On 9/4/2023 at 4:24 PM, KnoblauchWasFramed said:

I'm just going to make this call right now....

The Spreadsheet is already whispering into Rocco’s ear and telling him that Dallas Keuchel has made 12 playoff starts in the past and he would be perfect to start a Game 3 on the road with all of that experience.  Plus, The Spreadsheet is also reminding him that no one will ever see it coming just like no one saw that time Rocco went with a former Uber driver with five career starts in a playoff game in Yankee Stadium over Jake Odorizzi who had 15 wins.  

Dallas Keuchel will start a playoff game for the Twins.

If he does, somebody got hurt, or it’s a 2-3 inning “opener” ploy. I think it would be interesting to see Kuechel/Varland/Funderburk - /closer in September just to get a feel for its effectiveness. May be some merit to this!!???

2-3 innings - 3-4 innings - 2 innings

[JD-TWINS]

10 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Barring injury, or a sudden cratering of performance, I think Lopez, Gray, and Ryan will be setup as their 3 starters for the WC round with the hope that Ryan actually ends up pitching game 1 of the divisional round. I think Ober and Maeda are going to battle it out the 2nd half of September for the chance to be the #4 starter in the postseason. The other likely headed to the pen as a 2 inning weapon if/when needed, or the 5th starter if they get into some longer series and guys can't keep going on short rest. 

Barring injury, or sudden cratering of performance, I think Duran, Jax, Thielbar, and Pagan have postseason spots locked up. Varland and Ober/Maeda likely also have jobs come October as well. The question then is if they carry 1 or 2 more pitchers. Who gets those spots likely comes down to if Stewart comes back, and how he looks if he does, and if they want a 2nd lefty (I hope they do), which is likely Funderburk's job to lose at this point. Wild card round will be very interesting to see how many arms they choose to keep. If you need more than 6 or 7 in that round you're probably in trouble, and if you need more than 9 you're probably toast. I'd think they'd load up on position players for that round to really let Rocco play his pinch hitting game. I'd guess they still carry 11 arms for that series, but they better not have to use anywhere near that many.

We can shuffle the roster/staff for each series.  Only need 3 starters but we’ll roster 4 for the Wildcard Round.

With 4 starters & travel days there’s no short rest for anyone starting.

I like our existing 4 Pen guys (Pagan-Jax-Thielbar-Duran) plus 3 added relievers. I was into Ryan’s velocity being in the Pen along with Varland & Funderburk. If Ryan keeps throwing the way he has his past couple outings, he needs to be our 3rd starter. Due to his effectiveness over 3 months and the rest he’s getting now, my assumption is Ober will be our 4th starter, as needed.

Maeda, most likely to the Pen. Kuechel has a long shot chance at a Pen spot but I think they’ll maximize the number of bats/position players and just carry 11-12 pitchers total.

[JD-TWINS]

13 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

Maeda and Keuchel (if he makes the post season roster) should be bullpen bound.  I would like to see Stewart back.  He and Varland would be some serious gas out of the pen.  To me, I like what I've seen of Funderburk so far.  I'd include him as well.  Paddock is a mystery.  How quickly could he be ready?  To pitch one or two innings at a time, Paddock could be a sneaky arm to add to the pen.  I think their top 3 are Gray, Lopez and Ryan.  Ober gives them another SP option if he returns to form, but they can certainly get through the entire post season (assuming it's a World Series run) with 3 "for sure" SP's and a 4th (Ober) when needed.  

To me, Stewart should be left alone this year - awfully late in year to be returning w/o a handful of appearances to get sharp. Alcala, Paddack, Stewart all fall in same category to me………..let’s look again when healthy in February!