It's Time to Move Carlos Correa Down in the Lineup

[Cody Pirkl]

Carlos Correa has had a massively disappointing year. While injury may play a big role in his struggles, the results are what they are, and they’re only getting worse. It’s time the Twins move Correa down in the lineup.

Image courtesy of Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

The Twins were right to stick with Carlos Correa in the top three of the lineup for much of the season. In 2022, he got off to a slow start, and the faith in his star talent paid off as he finished the season arguably as the Twins' best hitter. 2023 has been entirely different, and the Twins are reaching a point where the track record needs to be thrown out the window.

For those hoping for a complete 180 in Correa's performance down the stretch, it may be time to throw in the towel. Those again preaching patience in March and April were correct, as he did improve upon his .634 OPS to begin the season, but just barely. Correa's offense peaked in May when his wRC+ reached 101, 1% above the league-average hitter. He hasn't been a league-average contributor in any month since. 

More recently, August was Correa’s second-worst month of the season, posting a .671 OPS which was good for 14% below the league average hitter. It’s left the former offensive force with a sub .700 OPS on the season, easily the worst of his career if the season ended today. This accompanied by his league-leading 28 double plays hit into, an often devastating development as the Twins' rallies sparked by the top of the order have been repeatedly erased. 

At this point, it’s safe to say the offense would have been at least slightly better had the Twins moved Correa down in the lineup some time ago. With the absence of a time machine, the argument is that the Twins need to make that change down the stretch.

Folks don’t like Win Probability Added as a stat, especially for hitters, but Correa coming in at -1.82 is the worst on the team and the 12th worst in all of baseball. Like the double plays, this is an opportunity-based measure. Keeping Correa in a position to keep seeing these opportunities just doesn’t seem like a great idea based on his performance for the entirety of 2023, and it could continue to cost the Twins offensively.

The argument against moving Correa down for much of the season was that the struggling Twins lineup lacked more apparent options. At this point, the better option has unfortunately become more clear: Just about anyone. By wRC+, only Christian Vazquez and Jose Miranda have been worse on the season with a minimum of 100 plate appearances. Players such as Royce Lewis and Matt Wallner are capable of being top-of-the-order bats. 

In addition, the hope is that Byron Buxton and Alex Kirilloff are on the verge of rejoining the Twins. Adding two more options to lengthen the lineup should make improving the top of the order a no-brainer. While Buxton has struggled on the season and Kirilloff's health is a major question, backfilling the lineup with these players in addition to Correa in favor of the Royces of the world is far from a bad situation.

Unfortunately, it's challenging to see Correa making massive improvements at this point in the season. More information continues to emerge surrounding his ailing foot, and it's become clear that there's more at play than just a mental switch he needs to flip at some point. It's time the Twins field their best lineup, which doesn't include Carlos Correa at the top. Do you agree?

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[HokieRif]

Yes. If nothing else, move him down to help cut back on the insane amount of GIDP opportunities he’s going to see. That alone should be worth an extra run per game. 

[chpettit19]

It's been time. Don't expect to see him go much below the 4 or 5 hole, but it's been time for a while to drop him down to 6th or further. He's not currently one of the 5 best hitters on this team.

[CRF]

Ya think? He's a DP machine and he's really struggling at the plate. Whether it's the injury or the pressure of his contract...whatever the reason, he's been pretty bad all season. Sure he has a decent game every once in a while...like last night, but it's time to drop him in the order. He's superb in the field though! He sure isn't letting his struggles at the plate, affect his glove at all. 

[tony&rodney]

Correa, right now, fits best hitting sixth as was stated above. His consistent play at shortstop seems underrated, but the bat and base running are suboptimal due to his physical issues. The Twins could sure use a resurgence of Correa's bat.

Those batting in the top five of the lineup need to step forward too.

 

[JD-TWINS]

Solano is batting .294 (or close) after going 4 for 5 last night, his only out was a line drive 390ft to the track in center. Kepler pinch hit - came through against lefty - fled to track in left for an out - then got another hit. Polanco is hitting from both sides of the plate. These guys, with Lewis & Kirilloff, need to be the meat of our line-up!

I would certainly move CC. The double plays & lack of any thought to give himself up to move runners isn’t tolerable.

Everyday v. RH pitching I would bat 1-6, JulienDH-Polanco-Kepler-Kirilloff-Lewis-Walner, with CC-Jeffers-Taylor………

V. LH pitching I would bat CC-Lewis-SolanoDH-Jeffers-Kirilloff-Farmer-Luplow-Walner-Taylor

Castro-Vazquez……maybe Buxton for our 14-15 guys/bats in October. 11-12 pitchers depending upon which series.

Seems any move from the 3 or 4 spot reduces pressure on Correa.

 

[Jocko87]

No, hes going to get a 10+ day break after the Cleveland series (provided they take 2 of 3).  Moving in the order doesn't change anything.  The GIDP opportunities will still find him. 

By the way, average exit velo on the double plays this year is 94.2mph.  I haven't been tracking xBa in detail but its north of .300 from a spot check.  9 events higher than .400 and 4 higher than .500.

Getting a break to refresh and heal a bit will do far more good than moving the batting order. 

[Eris]

They should move Correa to the IL right now. Farmer or Lewis can man SS.  Some sacrifice on D but I am not sure the Twins would be worse off. 

[NotAboutWinning]

17 minutes ago, Eris said:

They should move Correa to the IL right now. Farmer or Lewis can man SS.  Some sacrifice on D but I am not sure the Twins would be worse off. 

I agree. Correa needs some rest. I believe he has played through a tremendous amount of pain. The effects showed first in his offensive production, and it is beginning to show in his defense. We all have our opinions about whether he has earned his $33 million paycheck. I have gained huge respect for him. Leaders do hard things that others are not willing to do. I am ashamed to be a Twins fan when I hear the boos at Target Field.

[Dave Borton]

If the purpose of hitting better hitters earlier in the lineup is to get men on on base, why in the world would you hit the leagues leading GIDP player 3-5? Is the marketing dept or baseball people in charge of lineup? Good grief.

[rwilfong86]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

Correa, right now, fits best hitting sixth as was stated above. His consistent play at shortstop seems underrated, but the bat and base running are suboptimal due to his physical issues. The Twins could sure use a resurgence of Correa's bat.

Those batting in the top five of the lineup need to step forward too.

 

6 or lower for sure. 

[Althebum82]

You know, sometimes the desire for a return on investment gets in the way of making smart choices regarding the true best interests of the team.

Wow, to if CC has really been playing through this much pain, it would at this point be smart choice to help him provide us with a max return on his investment by resting him so he is more ready for the playoffs.  We do have competent options as others have stated.  Moving him down in the line-up is also smart.  His glove and team leadership qualities really make him truly a special player.  Let's not throw away the potential for a good long career with the Twins for some games in September of marginal importance.

Frankly, we have been down this road with Buxton before as well.  If he is not able to experience good health on his rehab assignment, shut him down for this year if it means a better chance to deliver results over the rest of his contract.

This is a well thought out and well written piece, Cody.   As exasperating as CC's season has been offensively, he is always a battler and plays an important role in this team's success.  Also, it is clear that there are young players who have emerged to cover the short comings of our key veterans' performances this year.  Let's keep focusing on strengths where they exist on this team,  and do the best we can with our short comings so that we can all enjoy the unique experience of October MLB baseball.

[stringer bell]

I am snickering as I watch the pregame show before the finale of the Twins-Rangers series and they are promoting a Correa surge. 
 

He hit a couple of balls hard yesterday including the go-ahead single off Chapman, but he hasn’t sustained a good stretch beyond a few games all year. 
 

He’s been lousy in high leverage situations, with RISP and has hit into an incredible amount of GDPs. He has a great post-season history and a clutch reputation. We can hope that something clicks to help the club win the Central and perform well in the “second season”. 

[rv78]

Said it before and I'll say it again.... Over-rated and over-paid.

I laugh at those who think he's so devoted to the Twins. He left for bigger money hoping to cash in to 2 other clubs, both of them wised up to his shortcomings before he came back to the Twins on a lesser offer. If it is pressure from the contract then he only has himself to blame. If it is due to injury then the FO is to blame..... again 2 other clubs were smart enough to see health problems. 5 more years of him is gonna bite, especially when it's time to start extending contracts to the good young players that are carrying this team. 

[DocBauer]

I had plantar fasciitis several years ago, and had it pretty bad. It last about 2yrs and it was tough to even stand up when I'd been sitting for a time. It did tend to loosen up after a while of being back on my feet, but the pain never truly went away. Now, I don't know how bad of a case Correa has, but I can sure see where it would put a huge damper on his ability to perform. And while it's been well over a decade now, I recall Mark Maguire having a very bad year for the Cardinals from the same injury. What's been surprising to me is how good his defense has remained.

Injury, pressure, both, the fact is he's just not performing like he normally does. And while we hope he gets a little rest over the next few weeks, and has some post season magic in his bat, he's not performing well enough to be at the top of the lineup. And I think Correa would, and has, agreed with that. He should be hitting no higher than 6th, especially if/when Kirilloff is back and the lineup is just that much deeper.

Next year is a different story. But for now, what's best for the lineup is for him to drop.

[MTV]

He’d be perfect as a #5 or #6 hitter, this year and next year. When Kirilloff comes back (which will be soon), the lineup should be Julien/Kirilloff/Lewis/Wallner, then Correa/Kepler, next year the twins should look for a serious #3/#4 hitter, in case Buck and Correa can’t hit again

[Western SD Fan]

Not sure I can add much more to this thread other than to agree that he should be no higher than 5th the rest of the season, even if he does improve.  The pressure needs to be taken off of him so he can get right for the playoffs.  His plantar fasciitis injury is obviously affecting him at the plate.   When watching his at-bats, the GIDP's, the taking strike three calls, seems to be out front pulling the ball, and his running out of the box.  It all seems to be related to him actually having to plant that foot down, which appears like he doesn't have to do as much in the field since he is going side to side.

He should have been moved down the order a month ago.  This one is everyone's problem.  Rocco should have moved him down.  CC should have been a better leader and moved down the order himself (e.g., Miguel Cabrera).  It does sound like that he is a great clubhouse presence, but part of the presence is taking responsibility and being a team player.  Since he can play though the injury, a "scheduled" IL stint could have been worked out at some point when the Twins were healthier to help him get some recovery.  The FO should have addressed this better since he is supposed to be the Twins' best marketable player to get butts in seats.  I may be the outlier fan, but I want the team to win first, even if that means CC isn't in the lineup every day if that gives the team the best chance to win. 

As for the boos at Target Field, CC addressed them earlier this year saying he would boo himself as well.  Big props to him at least being able to read the room and give a frank response.  But I'm not going to apologize, the boos are warranted and magically as the boos have been getting louder, he has finally started moving down in the order.  Sometimes, boos do have a purpose and the fact that the "Minnesota Nice" fans have risen up speaks volumes that they expect better out of everyone involved.

[gman]

If Correa's problems are because of foot pain, he needs to change his foot ware. The term plantar fascitis is going out of style in place of the true description which is "plantar heal pain." People have heal pain because generally they land on their heal when they walk. So duh they have heal pain which radiates down their foot.

The solution unless you are trying to sell something is to go barefoot or wear a barefoot style/minimalist shoe.  When you walk or run land forefoot or mid foot but never on your heal. Generally your heel pain with proper foot ware and walking pattern will go away within a week.

Secondary problems caused by shoes are misalignment of the skeleton resulting in ankle, knee, hip and shoulder problems. I would expect if Correa does not fix his footwear, he will have the problem for possibly years along with developing shoulder problems.

Something that is more natural for the human foot and skeleton. You know like people walked and ran for ever until Nike came along in the early 70's and added 2" of heels to shoes. Eventually that became the style.

The only people that had heal pain prior to that were women who wore fancy high healed shoes.

Prior to 1970 the common tennis shoe was a PF Flyer of Ked's style which were flat shoes. Mens dress shoes were flats and military/work shoes were flats. Unless you were a cowboy who wore boots with heels to hold the stirrup while seated on your horse.

Too long a post.

 

[The Mad King]

Obviously when your say "best lineup" you mean batting-wise. His defense warrants him being part of the best lineup but, yes, he needs to be moved down. If he turns it around and produces from the bottom of the order, all the better. That's how good teams win. I'm all for seeing Walner and Lewis moved up. I'm also all for letting Walner & Julian hit against lefties. How do you learn if you don't get the chance? 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

10 hours ago, Cody Pirkl said:

More information continues to emerge surrounding his ailing foot, and it's become clear that there's more at play than just a mental switch he needs to flip at some point.

Can you tell us what this new information is? 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I actually think Rocco will move Correa back up to the #1 slot when the AL Wild Card round starts. It did work after the All Star break. 

[rv78]

2 hours ago, The Mad King said:

Obviously when your say "best lineup" you mean batting-wise. His defense warrants him being part of the best lineup but, yes, he needs to be moved down. If he turns it around and produces from the bottom of the order, all the better. That's how good teams win. I'm all for seeing Walner and Lewis moved up. I'm also all for letting Walner & Julian hit against lefties. How do you learn if you don't get the chance? 

Letting Wallner and Julien hit against lefties goes against everything Rocco uses his spreadsheet for. He believes that the best matchup is opposites sides of the plate verses the pitcher even if it means benching your best players. Dream on, it'll never happen with Rocco setting lineups unless he is forced into it by injuries or using his bench too early and/or too often. 

[BillyBallLives]

Correa has hit into 29 double plays so far....1 for every 16.3 at bats. 

 

To put things in perspective... 13.3  is the all-time worst DP per a bat... Something named Billy Hitchcock did it in 1950......30 double plays in 399 at bats..... Correa probably won't be able to pull it off.....breaking Billy's record,