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The Twins were right to stick with Carlos Correa in the top three of the lineup for much of the season. In 2022, he got off to a slow start, and the faith in his star talent paid off as he finished the season arguably as the Twins' best hitter. 2023 has been entirely different, and the Twins are reaching a point where the track record needs to be thrown out the window.
For those hoping for a complete 180 in Correa's performance down the stretch, it may be time to throw in the towel. Those again preaching patience in March and April were correct, as he did improve upon his .634 OPS to begin the season, but just barely. Correa's offense peaked in May when his wRC+ reached 101, 1% above the league-average hitter. He hasn't been a league-average contributor in any month since.
More recently, August was Correa’s second-worst month of the season, posting a .671 OPS which was good for 14% below the league average hitter. It’s left the former offensive force with a sub .700 OPS on the season, easily the worst of his career if the season ended today. This accompanied by his league-leading 28 double plays hit into, an often devastating development as the Twins' rallies sparked by the top of the order have been repeatedly erased.
At this point, it’s safe to say the offense would have been at least slightly better had the Twins moved Correa down in the lineup some time ago. With the absence of a time machine, the argument is that the Twins need to make that change down the stretch.
Folks don’t like Win Probability Added as a stat, especially for hitters, but Correa coming in at -1.82 is the worst on the team and the 12th worst in all of baseball. Like the double plays, this is an opportunity-based measure. Keeping Correa in a position to keep seeing these opportunities just doesn’t seem like a great idea based on his performance for the entirety of 2023, and it could continue to cost the Twins offensively.
The argument against moving Correa down for much of the season was that the struggling Twins lineup lacked more apparent options. At this point, the better option has unfortunately become more clear: Just about anyone. By wRC+, only Christian Vazquez and Jose Miranda have been worse on the season with a minimum of 100 plate appearances. Players such as Royce Lewis and Matt Wallner are capable of being top-of-the-order bats.
In addition, the hope is that Byron Buxton and Alex Kirilloff are on the verge of rejoining the Twins. Adding two more options to lengthen the lineup should make improving the top of the order a no-brainer. While Buxton has struggled on the season and Kirilloff's health is a major question, backfilling the lineup with these players in addition to Correa in favor of the Royces of the world is far from a bad situation.
Unfortunately, it's challenging to see Correa making massive improvements at this point in the season. More information continues to emerge surrounding his ailing foot, and it's become clear that there's more at play than just a mental switch he needs to flip at some point. It's time the Twins field their best lineup, which doesn't include Carlos Correa at the top. Do you agree?







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