Week in Review: Lewis Returns, Division Lead Grows

[Nick Nelson]

Royce Lewis delivered in his much-anticipated return from the injured list as the Twins enjoyed a restful, winning week at home and widened their lead in the AL Central to a season-high six games.

As we turn toward the home stretch, the Twins are in the driver's seat, with the best odds to win their division outside of the MLB-dominating Dodgers and Braves.

Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 8/14 through Sun, 8/20
***
Record Last Week: 3-2 (Overall: 65-60)
Run Differential Last Week: +4 (Overall: +43)
Standing: 1st Place in AL Central (6.0 GA)

Last Week's Game Results:

Game 121 | MIN 5, DET 3: Wallner Grand Slam Lifts Twins to Win
Game 122 | DET 8, MIN 7: Rare Jax Implosion Proves Decisive
Game 123 | MIN 5, PIT 1: Twins Cruise Behind Pablo's Gem
Game 124 | PIT 7, MIN 4: Early Leads Evaporates for Gray
Game 125 | MIN 2, PIT 0: Dallas Deals in Series-Clinching Shutout

NEWS & NOTES

As expected, Royce Lewis was activated as soon as the Twins returned home from their long road trip, starting at third base and batting third in Tuesday night's series opener against Detroit. To make room on the roster, Willi Castro was moved to the injured list with a mild oblique strain, delaying any hard roster decisions for now.

Later in the week, Minnesota swapped out Jordan Balazovic for Oliver Ortega in the leaky bullpen.

Joe Ryan started a rehab assignment in St. Paul, where he pitched on Friday night and threw four innings of one-run ball.

HIGHLIGHTS

The Twins offense has rounded into form. They didn't exactly end the week on a high note, scoring two runs as the Pirates stymied them with a bullpen game, but that kind of day is now more the exception than the norm. 

Minnesota entered play on Sunday ranked second among American League teams in runs scored since the All-Star break, and first in wOBA. Games like Sunday's, where pitchers need to be near-flawless to win, have become far more rare. 

The team's improvement is being fueled by an emerging young core of hitters, which is especially exciting. Lewis made a huge impact right off the bat, coming through with a clutch RBI single in his first game back, and then following with a three-hit showing on Wednesday. Edouard Julien opened up with a four-hit game and drove in four runs on the week.

Matt Wallner continues to establish himself as a real difference-maker with his power and poise. His game-winning grand slam on Tuesday was without question the biggest highlight of the week, salvaging victory from the jaws of defeat against a Tigers team that weirdly tormented the Twins all year. Wallner almost did it again the next day.

Pablo López extended his scoreless innings streak to 18 with another stellar outing on Friday night, shutting out the Pirates over six to improve to 4-0 with a 0.36 ERA in August. 

A terrific showing, but López he was shockingly upstaged two days later by Dallas Keuchel, who managed to carry a perfect game through six innings before getting chased by a one-out double in the seventh. He finished with 6 ⅓ frames of scoreless one-hit ball, lowering his ERA to a respectable 4.85 after getting clobbered by the Phillies his last time out.

Keuchel is obviously very limited by his sluggish velocity and inability to miss bats, but on Sunday he executed his gameplan to perfection against a bad team, attacking the zone and inducing endless grounders. The results were as good as anyone could have asked for. 

It was fun to watch, and cool to see for a player who's by all accounts a good guy and teammate. That doesn't necessarily mean the Twins should be planning to let him make his next scheduled start, but we'll get to that later.

LOWLIGHTS

The Twins bullpen is becoming a big problem. And it's one that the front office will increasingly face scrutiny for after failing to address it in any meaningful way when they had the chance. 

The swap of struggling relievers that brought aboard Dylan Floro – Minnesota's only move resembling a deadline addition – hasn't been all that helpful, as he's posted a 1.64 WHIP through eight appearances as a Twin. Floro came in against Pittsburgh on Saturday and immediately yielded a run-scoring hit, then walked two straight batters in the next inning. Ugly stuff.

The idea that a middle of the bullpen carried by the likes of Floro and Balazovic, whose brutal outing on Saturday earned him an immediate demotion to Triple-A, is looking like some very faulty logic from the Twins brass. Worse yet, the shortcomings of the middle relievers are being magnified by the lapsing high-leverage horses in the late innings.

Griffin Jax had his worst performance of the season on Wednesday, coughing up four earned runs in one inning against a bad Detroit offense, with each run proving very costly in an eventual 8-7 loss. The appearance raised his ERA from 2.96 to 3.62, just like that. To his credit, Jax did bounce back with a couple of big outings in the Pittsburgh series.

Meanwhile, Jhoan Duran has been far from dominant for some time now. His previously unhittable repertoire has been anything but over the past couple months – Duran has gotten through an appearance without giving up a hit only once since June. He gave up four knocks in three appearances last week, including his sixth home run. (The same total he allowed all of last year.)

It's tough to know what to make of Duran's diminishing effectiveness in this regard. The velocity and stuff are still there for the most part. He still struck out seven hitters across the three innings of work last week. But opponents are finding ways to solve his arsenal, with nearly a .900 OPS against the flame-throwing right-hander since the start of July.

Duran needs to make some adjustments of his own in the remaining weeks of the regular season to turn the tides. It might be fair to say that no other single player on the roster is more pivotal to Minnesota's chances of success in the playoffs.

TRENDING STORYLINE

Who starts next Saturday, when the rotation spot presently occupied by Keuchel swings back around? That's now the big looming question. It figures to be an important game against a tough lineup with Max Scherzer scheduled as the opposing starter. 

Do the Twins view Ryan as ready? He only threw 71 pitches on Friday night and while the results were solid, he did give up a home run and was oddly erratic, throwing only 38 of those pitches (53%) for strikes.

Keuchel should not be viewed as an option despite his successful results on Sunday against the Pirates. It's almost impossible to envision him putting forth a competitive outing against a Rangers offense that leads the AL in OPS by a sizable margin.

Louie Varland is the wild-card here. He's been excellent of late at Triple-A (0.70 ERA in his last four starts) and, while not an ideal matchup against Texas given his HR-proneness, he probably would give the Twins their best chance of the three. 

Unfortunately, the schedule lines up in a bit of a tricky way for Varland, who last pitched on Wednesday. The Saints are off on Monday, as always, and if he starts Tuesday at Omaha, Varland would be on three days rest for the Saturday turn. I wonder if the Twins will have him make a very short (2-3 inning) start on Tuesday, to keep open the possibility of a weekend promotion. 

LOOKING AHEAD

On Monday, the Twins will have their third day off in a weeklong span. So they'll be as rested as they're gonna be the rest of the way as they head into the most challenging week on the remaining schedule: six games against first-place teams, including four against the Rangers, who lead the AL in run differential (+189).

TUESDAY, 8/22: TWINS @ BREWERS – RHP Bailey Ober v. LHP Wade Miley
WEDNESDAY, 8/23: TWINS @ BREWERS – RHP Kenta Maeda v. RHP Corbin Burnes
THURSDAY, 8/24: RANGERS @ TWINS – LHP Andrew Heaney v. RHP Pablo Lopez
FRIDAY, 8/25: RANGERS @ TWINS – RHP Dane Dunning v. RHP Sonny Gray
SATURDAY, 8/26: RANGERS @ TWINS – RHP Max Scherzer v. LHP Dallas Keuchel
SUNDAY, 8/27: RANGERS @ TWINS – RHP Jordan Montgomery v. RHP Bailey Ober

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[railmarshalljon]

I'm lost on the Duran graph. What is it showing?

[FlyingFinn]

Sure seems like the young hitters are knocking in most of the runs lately.

[Nick Nelson]

44 minutes ago, railmarshalljon said:

I'm lost on the Duran graph. What is it showing?

Ah yes, I now I realize that was very devoid of context. It's a snapshot from the rolling xwOBA charts on Statcast, which progressively track hitter success against a pitcher. Basically what that shows is that Duran was holding opponents way below the league average consistently, but it's risen sharply (and sustainably) of late. But starting to dip back down now!

[curt1965]

The Twins are in first place today, but shouldn’t be complacent.

1.) The everyday number of strikeouts cannot continue if they plan on going anywhere in the playoffs. The failure to make contact with runners in scoring position, especially with less than 2 outs, would be deadly.

2.) The Gallo experiment must end. It is embarrassing that a major league team, especially a contending one, continues to give the strikeout machine additional at bats.

3.) As Nick pointed out, the pitching staff needs to get rid of the dead wood, and at least consider options like Varland and Funderburk.

4.) What does the roster look like when Kirilloff and Buxton return?

 

[JD-TWINS]

51 minutes ago, curt1965 said:

The Twins are in first place today, but shouldn’t be complacent.

1.) The everyday number of strikeouts cannot continue if they plan on going anywhere in the playoffs. The failure to make contact with runners in scoring position, especially with less than 2 outs, would be deadly.

2.) The Gallo experiment must end. It is embarrassing that a major league team, especially a contending one, continues to give the strikeout machine additional at bats.

3.) As Nick pointed out, the pitching staff needs to get rid of the dead wood, and at least consider options like Varland and Funderburk.

4.) What does the roster look like when Kirilloff and Buxton return?

 

Pen by Oct. 2:

Varland - Kuechel - Ryan - Jax - Thielbar - Pagan - Duran - Funderburk or Ortega (8 guys)

Maeda - Gray - Ober - Lopez for starting options

Gallo will be here, even if they have to place him on IL for 10 days, until roster expands…….then he’s along for ride through September. Mr. Insurance for “D”.

Roster with Kirilloff - Buxton back in September:…………nothing positive on Kirilloff to date - will he be back???

Lewis-CC-Julien-Kirilloff -  2 catchers

Wallner-Buxton-Kepler

Castro-Farmer-Solano-Gallo-Taylor-Polanco………Luplow may have a spot if anyone is on IL

October…….could carry only 4 starters & 7 relievers for playoffs??

That would allow the same or some combination of 15 bats used in September. 15 bats & 13 arms on the Staff in September. Possibly only 11 pitchers for Playoffs? Certainly do not need more than 12 arms for Playoffs.

 

[ToddlerHarmon]

7 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Gallo will be here, even if they have to place him on IL for 10 days, until roster expands…….then he’s along for ride through September. Mr. Insurance for “D”.

I'm afraid you are correct. Which leads me to wonder if Farmer falls off the playoff roster if everyone's healthy. Lewis, Polanco, Julien, and Solano are all hitting, and Luplow is more situationally important if he continues to produce.

[NotAboutWinning]

So hard to guess at what a playoff roster might look like. This FO seems to make personnel decisions based on contracts, personal favorites, Boras and rigid adherence to analytics instead of... well, baseball!

[Karbo]

37 games to go. Magic number over Cleveland is 22, Detroit is 21.

[jorgenswest]

Looking  a little further ahead…

The juggling of Keuchel and the rotation with the off days has Maeda, Lopez and Gray lined up for the Cleveland series. In the second Cleveland series it should be Lopez, Gray and maybe Ryan. Well done!

Last September heading into an important series against Cleveland where they could have retaken first place they had Bundy, Archer and Winder lined up against Bieber, McKenzie and Quantrill. They lost all three. If that didn’t knock them out for good they were lined up poorly for the next Cleveland series also and lost the first three. In eight important September games against Cleveland they lost the first 6 and were 7 out before Ryan and Gray had a chance.

The rotation will be weaker against the Rangers this year but the Rangers will also see less of Lopez and Gray before the playoffs.

[MABB1959]

I won't get excited at all until they are done playing Cleveland.  Strikeouts over the week have been a horrible stat.

[gman]

I think Varland and/or Kuechel will be critical for giving their other starters time off in September. Ryan has had several weeks off recently. Maeda had 6(?) weeks off in the early summer months. He has had 10 fewer starts than Gray and Lopez. I do think however that Ober and Gray especially need to have their turns in the rotation skipped a couple times in the next six weeks. Pablo possibly also although he does look much better than the others. Since the Twins rotation is highly critical for their success, getting them in as good a rested position as possible is necessary I think. If we lose a couple extra games along the way so be it, we'll be better in the playoffs I think.

Many position players have had time off due to injuries, plus a constant rotation of players. Maybe Correa could use some extra time off, I think that would help him be stronger in the playoffs. Buxton usage is up in the air still I think. If he can get in the outfield a couple days a week, that would be good for this year and next.

The Twins don't need to finish with a 10 game lead or even the current 6 game lead. Best physical condition of players should be the goal over he last 6 weeks.

[D.C Twins]

The elephant in the room is that the offense has also benefited greatly from removing Buxton as the DH.

I am a huge fan of Buxton, but he hurts this team at DH.

I see Julian as our playoff DH

He needs to stay on the IL until he can play CF.

[Blyleven2011]

17 minutes ago, MABB1959 said:

I won't get excited at all until they are done playing Cleveland.  Strikeouts over the week have been a horrible stat.

Strikeouts and leaving  bases loaded   have been horrible  all season  ...

[roger]

Although the sixth starter is a question, the biggest question seems to be roster management as Buxton, AK and Castro come off the IL.  The good news is that we are ten days away from the roster expanding by 2.  Will both of those be position players?  Very likely.  Now the playoff roster will be another interesting decision.  Expect few of us will be happy with how that decision is made.

[Mike Sixel]

Good week, shocking result from Keuchel. Good for him!

The sooner Gallo is gone, the better. Polanco shouldn't be far behind, alas, as I've always liked him. 

The team is better the more they play young guys.......there is a AAA OF with great speed and on base ability, former top prospect who is now healthy.....if only there was a position where they were underperfroming, like CF where they are near last in all the majors in war.....or first base....

[Jeff K]

5 hours ago, NotAboutWinning said:

So hard to guess at what a playoff roster might look like. This FO seems to make personnel decisions based on contracts, personal favorites, Boras and rigid adherence to analytics instead of... well, baseball!

I so agree.  That said, there have been some decisions made that I swore were wrong but are bearing fruit.  Kepler is playing well.  I thought he was done, although I still think they should have dealt him at the deadline given his somewhat increased value (temporary?)  I just think the young guys are the ones we need to run with. And...Pagan...I'm speechless that this guy has been so effective.  

[P Meyer]

2 hours ago, D.C Twins said:

The elephant in the room is that the offense has also benefited greatly from removing Buxton as the DH.

I am a huge fan of Buxton, but he hurts this team at DH.

I see Julian as our playoff DH

He needs to stay on the IL until he can play CF.

I would add that the biggest hole in the field is at CF. I don't see any evidence to support the idea of bringing back Buxton this season without the ability to play CF. IF he is not healthy enough to do that, he probably shouldn't come back outside of other injuries.

[USAFChief]

4 hours ago, Karbo said:

37 games to go. Magic number over Cleveland is 22, Detroit is 21.

Actually, 32 and 31, respectively.

[2wins87]

Logically, Cleveland should be pretty much cooked at this point.  6 games back, below .500, just dropped 3 of 4 to the same Tigers team that gave the Twins so many problems.

I still don't trust this Twins team not to suddenly go on a terrible losing streak though.  If they did, this would be the week to do it with the Brewers and Rangers.  Honestly just making it through this week no worse than 2-4, and then playing Cleveland at .500 the rest of the way should be enough to lock up the division.  I wouldn't be surprised if they managed to make it more interesting though.

[Karbo]

6 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Actually, 32 and 31, respectively.

yep you're reight. bad math on my part.

[Doctor Wu]

On 8/21/2023 at 10:36 AM, JD-TWINS said:

Gallo will be here, even if they have to place him on IL for 10 days, until roster expands…….then he’s along for ride through September. Mr. Insurance for “D”.

I think you are right. As much as Gallo has struggled this year, he's still the kind of player that can magically step up in the late innings and win a game with a towering home run. He still has some value, however minimal.

[Doctor Wu]

18 hours ago, P Meyer said:

I would add that the biggest hole in the field is at CF. I don't see any evidence to support the idea of bringing back Buxton this season without the ability to play CF. IF he is not healthy enough to do that, he probably shouldn't come back outside of other injuries.

The whole Buxton situation has been so weird this year, but I also don't see him returning to the field this late in the season. Can we hope for a healthy Buxton to play CF next year? That remains a mystery too.