Week in Review: Lewis Returns, Division Lead Grows

Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 8/14 through Sun, 8/20
***
Record Last Week: 3-2 (Overall: 65-60)
Run Differential Last Week: +4 (Overall: +43)
Standing: 1st Place in AL Central (6.0 GA)

Last Week's Game Results:

Game 121 | MIN 5, DET 3: Wallner Grand Slam Lifts Twins to Win
Game 122 | DET 8, MIN 7: Rare Jax Implosion Proves Decisive
Game 123 | MIN 5, PIT 1: Twins Cruise Behind Pablo's Gem
Game 124 | PIT 7, MIN 4: Early Leads Evaporates for Gray
Game 125 | MIN 2, PIT 0: Dallas Deals in Series-Clinching Shutout

NEWS & NOTES

As expected, Royce Lewis was activated as soon as the Twins returned home from their long road trip, starting at third base and batting third in Tuesday night's series opener against Detroit. To make room on the roster, Willi Castro was moved to the injured list with a mild oblique strain, delaying any hard roster decisions for now.

Later in the week, Minnesota swapped out Jordan Balazovic for Oliver Ortega in the leaky bullpen.

Joe Ryan started a rehab assignment in St. Paul, where he pitched on Friday night and threw four innings of one-run ball.

HIGHLIGHTS

The Twins offense has rounded into form. They didn't exactly end the week on a high note, scoring two runs as the Pirates stymied them with a bullpen game, but that kind of day is now more the exception than the norm. 

Minnesota entered play on Sunday ranked second among American League teams in runs scored since the All-Star break, and first in wOBA. Games like Sunday's, where pitchers need to be near-flawless to win, have become far more rare. 

The team's improvement is being fueled by an emerging young core of hitters, which is especially exciting. Lewis made a huge impact right off the bat, coming through with a clutch RBI single in his first game back, and then following with a three-hit showing on Wednesday. Edouard Julien opened up with a four-hit game and drove in four runs on the week.

Matt Wallner continues to establish himself as a real difference-maker with his power and poise. His game-winning grand slam on Tuesday was without question the biggest highlight of the week, salvaging victory from the jaws of defeat against a Tigers team that weirdly tormented the Twins all year. Wallner almost did it again the next day.

Pablo López extended his scoreless innings streak to 18 with another stellar outing on Friday night, shutting out the Pirates over six to improve to 4-0 with a 0.36 ERA in August. 

A terrific showing, but López he was shockingly upstaged two days later by Dallas Keuchel, who managed to carry a perfect game through six innings before getting chased by a one-out double in the seventh. He finished with 6 ⅓ frames of scoreless one-hit ball, lowering his ERA to a respectable 4.85 after getting clobbered by the Phillies his last time out.

Keuchel is obviously very limited by his sluggish velocity and inability to miss bats, but on Sunday he executed his gameplan to perfection against a bad team, attacking the zone and inducing endless grounders. The results were as good as anyone could have asked for. 

It was fun to watch, and cool to see for a player who's by all accounts a good guy and teammate. That doesn't necessarily mean the Twins should be planning to let him make his next scheduled start, but we'll get to that later.

LOWLIGHTS

The Twins bullpen is becoming a big problem. And it's one that the front office will increasingly face scrutiny for after failing to address it in any meaningful way when they had the chance. 

The swap of struggling relievers that brought aboard Dylan Floro – Minnesota's only move resembling a deadline addition – hasn't been all that helpful, as he's posted a 1.64 WHIP through eight appearances as a Twin. Floro came in against Pittsburgh on Saturday and immediately yielded a run-scoring hit, then walked two straight batters in the next inning. Ugly stuff.

The idea that a middle of the bullpen carried by the likes of Floro and Balazovic, whose brutal outing on Saturday earned him an immediate demotion to Triple-A, is looking like some very faulty logic from the Twins brass. Worse yet, the shortcomings of the middle relievers are being magnified by the lapsing high-leverage horses in the late innings.

Griffin Jax had his worst performance of the season on Wednesday, coughing up four earned runs in one inning against a bad Detroit offense, with each run proving very costly in an eventual 8-7 loss. The appearance raised his ERA from 2.96 to 3.62, just like that. To his credit, Jax did bounce back with a couple of big outings in the Pittsburgh series.

Meanwhile, Jhoan Duran has been far from dominant for some time now. His previously unhittable repertoire has been anything but over the past couple months – Duran has gotten through an appearance without giving up a hit only once since June. He gave up four knocks in three appearances last week, including his sixth home run. (The same total he allowed all of last year.)

It's tough to know what to make of Duran's diminishing effectiveness in this regard. The velocity and stuff are still there for the most part. He still struck out seven hitters across the three innings of work last week. But opponents are finding ways to solve his arsenal, with nearly a .900 OPS against the flame-throwing right-hander since the start of July.

Duran needs to make some adjustments of his own in the remaining weeks of the regular season to turn the tides. It might be fair to say that no other single player on the roster is more pivotal to Minnesota's chances of success in the playoffs.

TRENDING STORYLINE

Who starts next Saturday, when the rotation spot presently occupied by Keuchel swings back around? That's now the big looming question. It figures to be an important game against a tough lineup with Max Scherzer scheduled as the opposing starter. 

Do the Twins view Ryan as ready? He only threw 71 pitches on Friday night and while the results were solid, he did give up a home run and was oddly erratic, throwing only 38 of those pitches (53%) for strikes.

Keuchel should not be viewed as an option despite his successful results on Sunday against the Pirates. It's almost impossible to envision him putting forth a competitive outing against a Rangers offense that leads the AL in OPS by a sizable margin.

Louie Varland is the wild-card here. He's been excellent of late at Triple-A (0.70 ERA in his last four starts) and, while not an ideal matchup against Texas given his HR-proneness, he probably would give the Twins their best chance of the three. 

Unfortunately, the schedule lines up in a bit of a tricky way for Varland, who last pitched on Wednesday. The Saints are off on Monday, as always, and if he starts Tuesday at Omaha, Varland would be on three days rest for the Saturday turn. I wonder if the Twins will have him make a very short (2-3 inning) start on Tuesday, to keep open the possibility of a weekend promotion. 

LOOKING AHEAD

On Monday, the Twins will have their third day off in a weeklong span. So they'll be as rested as they're gonna be the rest of the way as they head into the most challenging week on the remaining schedule: six games against first-place teams, including four against the Rangers, who lead the AL in run differential (+189).

TUESDAY, 8/22: TWINS @ BREWERS – RHP Bailey Ober v. LHP Wade Miley
WEDNESDAY, 8/23: TWINS @ BREWERS – RHP Kenta Maeda v. RHP Corbin Burnes
THURSDAY, 8/24: RANGERS @ TWINS – LHP Andrew Heaney v. RHP Pablo Lopez
FRIDAY, 8/25: RANGERS @ TWINS – RHP Dane Dunning v. RHP Sonny Gray
SATURDAY, 8/26: RANGERS @ TWINS – RHP Max Scherzer v. LHP Dallas Keuchel
SUNDAY, 8/27: RANGERS @ TWINS – RHP Jordan Montgomery v. RHP Bailey Ober