Randy Dobnak, Twins Overlooked Depth

[Ted Schwerzler]

The Minnesota Twins have one of the best starting rotations in all of baseball. Minnesota’s front office has done an incredible job employing high-ceiling arms, and they have been supplemented by depth. One of the overlooked arms may be former playoff starter Randy Dobnak.

 

Image courtesy of Rob Thompson, St. Paul Saints (photo of Randy Dobnak)

After pitching for Alderson-Broaddhaus in college, the Twins unearthed Randy Dobnak during the 2017 season. He was throwing in independent baseball and signed a deal that sent him to Elizabethton. Two years later, he was pitching in the Major Leagues. A month later, he pitched against the New York Yankees in the postseason.

He received more notoriety for grinding as an Uber driver than as a pitcher, and people did not take his prospect status seriously despite Rocco Baldelli selecting him as a Game Two starter against the Evil Empire. No matter what you wanted to make of him, he had made it and was a big leaguer.

Things didn't go well in that postseason game, but the Twins were undeterred. He started ten games in 2020 during a weird Covid season and received a $9.25 million contract spanning five seasons. Then he pitched 50 2/3 innings at the highest level in 2021, and things worsened. A finger injury had him battling an ERA nearly hitting 8.00. It was clear that Dobnak needed a reset.

Dobnak has battled through the injury while regaining confidence and ability over the past two years. In 2023 though, he has been fully back and looks the part of a solid arm once again. Despite a St. Paul Saints rotation full of options, Dobnak has established himself as a pillar of consistency.

Talking with Dobnak on media day, he was still determining where his role would lie. Knowing the guys ahead of him needed innings, he would likely eat bullpen innings. He bounced between roles for a while but has been in the rotation since mid-May.

Nothing about his role ever deterred Dobnak. 

"I'm going to go out there and give my best effort regardless of my role with a team. I know what I am capable of doing and this year has been very important to me to stay healthy after everything I went through the past two years. I've never worried about things that are out of my control. If I can control what I can control, then at the end of the day I can look at myself and know that I gave my best effort."

Having made 15 straight starts, Dobnak owns a 3.91 ERA in that stretch, and removing his one blowup takes it down to a 2.79 ERA. He has been more of a five-and-dive guy, but that's not unexpected for a pitcher that uses an approach to induce weak contact. He has posted a K/9 north of 8.0 and allowed just eight homers in over 90 innings.

It's not lost on Dobnak that he's been on a roll. 

"Taking care of my body each day and attacking the zone has been key," Dobnak said. "If I fall behind, getting back into counts with competitive pitches has been key."

Dobnak's bugaboo this season has been traffic. He has an inflated WHIP while working around and an inflated walk rate, and he still allows too many hits during each outing. The recipe there is one that could tax a bullpen, but he's at least making the conversation worth having again.

Pitching against a good Triple-A club for the Reds on Wednesday, Dobnak turned in a scoreless start. He went just four innings, allowed zero runs, and worked around three walks. For Dobnak, pitching at this level has to feel good after what he has gone through. Working back from an injury that never made any sense and a rehab process that was unclear, results are what matter for now.

"Going back to look at the game today I'm sure I will see that the guys reaching base were primarily hitters I fell behind on. Attacking early is where my focus has been. I have tried to keep hitters off balance with a good mix of pitches and location."

The Twins committed to Dobnak through the 2025 season, and there are team options in consideration in the following three seasons. Even if they don't, he still gets another $1 million as a buyout before 2025.

Seeing success down the stretch this season hasn't been by accident. Dobnak said, "Finally finding a slider that has pretty decent movement has helped me discover who I can be going forward. After the ginger injury, the sinker doesn't sink nearly as much as it used to. I think I am a better pitcher now than when I broke into the big leagues four years ago."

Maybe the Twins don't find a spot for Dobnak this season or the rest of his time with them, but he's continued to put forth the effort that has earned him each opportunity. Dobnak will be just 31 in 2026 and can continue his career elsewhere. No matter what happens, a kid from an overlooked school earned his opportunity and then gained it back again.

Dobnak's family embraces hard work but remains humble in every way. He has embodied that on a public stage, and whatever is next, you can bet he'll take that opportunity and run with it as well.

View full article

[mikelink45]

Love Dobnak's story and attitude, but I hope we continue to find arms that are better than his. 

[Ricky Vaughn]

Always wished him well, and still do, but I'm afraid his time has come and gone.

[jorgenswest]

Relative to league his ERA has been better than several of the batters relative to league. We look at those batting numbers and wonder why they aren’t being called up. We don’t wonder the same about Dobnak.

The run scoring context in AAA is so high it distorts our perception. Dobnak’s ERA+ is 128. For comparison the wRC+ of Larnach(129), Stevenson(125), Williams(121) and Camargo(97). Jake Cave is 170 in the IL this year and 62 in the majors. I am not arguing for Dobnak to be added to the major league roster but rather pointing out that the stats of batters that some argue should be called up isn’t any more worthy of promotion than Dobnak’s stats.

[DJL44]

Thank you Twins Daily for pointing out over and over again that Randy Dobnak is still alive.

[Dman]

Hey I want to be a believer but he needs an out pitch.  Batter's can seem to run up his pitch count at will because he doesn't seem to have a pitch to put guys away with.  If he ever solves that I do think he is a major league pitcher and possibly a mid rotation one.  If he stays as is I just don't see him making it except in maybe a depth emergency.  The WHIP has to come down before I have any confidence what so ever.  He is a good pitcher right now but he needs to be better if he wants to pitch in the majors.

[DJL44]

He will be the only major leaguer from Alderson Broaddus since that university just recently closed.

[Woof Bronzer]

Still blows the mind that he started game 2 in the 2019 playoffs for a 100 win team.  

[KirbyDome89]

28 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

The run scoring context in AAA is so high it distorts our perception. Dobnak’s ERA+ is 128. For comparison the wRC+ of Larnach(129), Stevenson(125), Williams(121) and Camargo(97). Jake Cave is 170 in the IL this year and 62 in the majors. I am not arguing for Dobnak to be added to the major league roster but rather pointing out that the stats of batters that some argue should be called up isn’t any more worthy of promotion than Dobnak’s stats.

Gallo has set the bar so low that it's almost impossible for Williams to be any worse at 1B. Also, there's some potential upside with Williams, i.e. he might be an actual major league caliber player. Ditto for Stevenson and Larnach, although the clock is running out on him. 

We know what Dobnak is, a AAAA, or maybe even just a AAA pitcher at this point. I don't want to see a guy like that anywhere near the starting rotation, or even the bullpen when there are younger options. 

[CRF]

I wish him well, but I believe his ship has sailed, as far as the Twins go. Anything's possible, but I'd be surprised if he gets another shot up here. His best chance is with another organization.  

[Beast]

This team can barely keep its head above water with quality starting pitching.  If we have to use Dobnak, we’re in trouble.

[Cris E]

I gotta admit, I thought he was the guy who went to Florida and was just called up and sent down.

Yup, just went and checked, and between the hair, glasses and meh results I see how I got him confused with Devin Smeltzer. Mea culpa Randy, keep grinding. Good things can happen when you identify and chase the big dreams.

[sampleSizeOfOne]

I for one am happy we have Dobnak around, and look forward to his call up.

 

Hope he has Thielbarian success when he gets here.

 

Still miss Andrew Albers...

[The Mad King]

Nice article Ted

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I think Dobnak is just the right amount of “looked”

[Major League Ready]

Dobnak seeks like Cole Sands light to me.  Sands has the better slider and a couple ticks extra velo on his FB.  

[Rosterman]

But...but...they are NOT paying Dobnak millions to just play in AAA. Hopefully a return of something on the investment.

 

Humm...may be a roster spot opening...soon. 

[gunnarthor]

I hope the Twins pay TD for these articles. Wow.

[Hubie29]

If you want to lose all credibility, speak of Randy Dobnak as a possible overlooked arm creating depth.  Enough is enough. 

[Ex-Iowegian]

Do a comparison of Dobnak to someone like, maybe Cole De Vries. 
perspective.

 

[old nurse]

Traffic on the bases, still avoids runs at AAA. The game tonight should show you what that leads to against a good team

[Fat Calvin]

Yeah I like Dobnak. He could replace the beard.

[DocBauer]

Ryan is out temporarily, we hope and expect. Varland is next, and while his last 2 or 3 ML starts were not good, he also had his best 2 or 3 ML starts before the wheels came off and he was sent down for a re-set.

But I have ZERO confidence in Keuchel. I never trusted smoke and mirrors against AAA batters, but crossed my fingers after his first OK start that he might fool ML hitters for a few games to eat some IP and help ease the IP burden through August at least. He got destroyed against Philadelphia tonight. I'll bet he gets at least one more start to see.

But after Varland, the pickings become very sparse. That's where Dobnak might get a shot to fill in. I'd rather give him a shot at 4-5 innings for a game than other options at this point. 

[DJL44]

Any major league team willing to pick up his contract could have Randy Dobnak right now. The Twins would deal him away before the other team could change their mind.

[Otaknam]

I never understood why the FO gave Dobnak a 5 year $9.2 million contract. He was marginally successful and looked like a middle innings reliever to me, not a starter. A head scratcher for sure. 

[Minny505]

He might be the fifth best healthy SP in the org at this moment. I'd take him over Keuchel and he has certainly outperformed Varland at AAA over the past two months.

His first 15 starts was a fantastic debut, with a FIP around 3.60. We've never seen him healthy and starting at the MLB level since. I'd love to see the team give him another shot.

[dxpavelka]

Still want to know if there has ever been an un drafted college grad make it to the big leagues quicker than Dobnak?

[Weave]

Good Question dxpavelka