Dissecting Dallas Keuchel

[NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin]

I'll apologize at the outset for a lengthy post, but I do believe that the Twins' FO and coaching staff are going to be having discussions revolving around this topic, and I feel TD should have it, too.

 

Causes of Keuchel's Decline

To say that I was skeptical of Dallas Keuchel's ability to be effective as a Twins starter would be an understatement. I definitely fall on the "Keuchel's AAA numbers are smoke and mirrors" side of the debate, and (24hrs ago) I would have rather seen a Varland/Winder/BP day start than Keuchel taking the ball. In my opinion, most of his issues related to a lack of the precise command that won him the AL Cy Young in '15.

In that season, his sinker averaged 90.0mph, and in 2016 (the first year statcast recorded vertical movement), it averaged 25.9" of drop (4.1" above average). In 2022, his average sinker velocity was 87.8mph with 30.1" of drop (3.8" above average). This kind of regression is normal-- Clayton Kershaw's average four-seamer has lost 3.0mph in the same 2015-2023 span.

Some of the off-speed stuff is not quite there. Keuchel's slider has regressed heavily. It averaged 52.2" of drop and 10.1" of sweep at 78.5mph in '16 while presenting a very hittable 45.3" of drop and 9.8" of sweep at 77.0mph in '22. His changeup was very heavy in arm-side run (18.3" in '15), and he has since traded ~4" of arm-side run for ~8" of drop.

Here is a screenshot of his Baseball Savant page with the information about his pure "stuff" (left) and control (right):

The information on the right paints a good picture of what is occurring. In '15 and '17, Keuchel prevented over 40 runs with pitches on the edges. His style revolved around pitching the hitter into two-strike counts and then making them swing at a pitch they weren't looking for on a fringe. That being said, the 1st Pitch Strike Percentage and Zone Percentage dropping 4.9% and 5.8%, respectively, since 2016 is quite worrying. He found himself in 3-0 counts 5.1% of the time in '22 (up from 3.0% in '15) and got to 0-2 in 19.5% of his PAs in '22 (down from 22.3% in '15). A changeup on the low outside corner is much more dangerous in 0-2 than it is in a 3-0 count, as the hitter is likely rolling that pitch over if he swings, yet he doesn't have to on 3-0. Pitching into good counts is how the Keuchels/Maedas/Civales of the baseball world make their living. Keuchel has not done a lot of that since the shortened COVID season and it's been his downfall.

His inability to work counts in his favor allowed hitters to be much choosier and sit on pitches, which is exasperated by the fact that he only throws in the high 80s. He can't throw an F-you fastball at the numbers the way Duran, Lopez, or Jax can throw on 3-0. Getting into favorable counts is imperative and a key sign of whether or not Keuchel will be able to revive his career.

 

His Twins Debut 

On a surface level, Keuchel was great in his debut. Pitching 5.0 innings of 1 ER ball is about as good as anyone could ask for, especially when the leverage corps all had a day of rest. If we go any deeper, however, we start to run into some complexity. He gave up 8 hits and 2 walks (2.00 WHIP) while striking out none (4.46 FIP). Of course, the 61.9% groundball percentage is much closer to his '15 GB rate (61.5%) than his '22 rate (50.7%). His hard-hit percentage (28.6%) is lower than any full-season mark of his, as well as his average EV (81.7mph). To see whether the hits were lucky (on the part of the hitters), let's take a look at every PA with Keuchel on the mound.

Top 1

Ketel Marte: Flyout (84.9mph at 47 degrees) .020 xBA      Corbin Carroll: Walk (N/A) N/A      Tommy Pham: GIDP (97.0mph at 0 degrees) .420 xBA

Top 2

Christian Walker: Groundout (39.6mph at -57 degrees) .220 xBA      Lourdes Gurriel: Single (88.5mph at 16 degrees) .930 xBA      Emmanuel Rivera: FC (83.1mph at -26 degrees) .070 xBA      Jake McCarthy: Single (59.4mph at -55 degrees) .330 xBA      Nick Ahmed: Groundout (96.9 mph at -3 degrees) .330 xBA

Top 3

Carson Kelly: Single (64.5mph at -1 degrees) .120 xBA      Ketel Marte: GIDP (78.4mph at 6 degrees) .290 xBA      Corbin Carroll: Single (98.6mph at 7 degrees) .590 xBA      Tommy Pham: Walk (N/A) N/A      Christian Walker: Lineout (112.1mph at 8 degrees) .780 xBA

Top 4

Lourdes Gurriel: Single (88.4mph at 18 degrees) .760 xBA      Emmanuel Rivera: Flyout (94.0mph at 40 degrees) .020 xBA      Jake McCarthy: Flyout (75.2mph at 54 degrees) .100 xBA      Nick Ahmed: Lineout (97.0 mph at 17 degrees) .490 xBA

Top 5

Carson Kelly: Double (103.5mph at 5 degrees) .590 xBA      Ketel Marte: Groundout (80.4mph at -8 degrees) .120 xBA      Corbin Carroll: Single (60.2mph at 30 degrees) .520 xBA      Tommy Pham: RBI Groundout (94.6mph at -16 degrees) .120 xBA      Christian Walker: Single (26.8mph at -42 degrees) .250 xBA     Lourdes Gurriel: Groundout (93.0mph at -16 degrees) .140 xBA

 

We can use an xBA of .350 to be our threshold of "allowable" xBA, where a hit recorded with an xBA less than .350 is judged to be "bad luck" and an out recorded on a ball with an xBA above .350 is "good luck." Using this threshold, Keuchel had three instances of "good luck" and three instances of "bad luck."

His average xBA was 0.343 with two walks, though only one of the eight hits went for extra bases (and none of the "loud outs" would have gone for extra bases except maybe the Walker lineout). An average xBA above .300 is quite atrocious, as it is considerably higher than his .289 xBA mark in 2022, when he was among the bottom 1% of the league in this category. Sample size and the lack of strikeouts are likely the culprit of this large number, though a 15% K-rate would only reduce the xBA to a .292 mark.

In terms of working the count, he reached zero 3-0 counts and had the hitter on an 0-2 count 21.7% of the time (very close to his '15 number). In this regard, he performed quite well and was able to get big outs by getting ahead of guys early. Additionally, the McCarthy hit in the 2nd, the Carroll hit in the 5th, and the Walker hit in the 5th all had xBAs above .250 despite being hit slower than 61mph. Expected batting average incorporates the batter's footspeed, and three balls hit under 61mphs resulting in hits is bad luck (despite what xBA says) as the pitcher has won if he can induce extremely weak contact.

 

Conclusion

Obviously, it's hard to make concrete conclusions about a five-inning start. We're still debating how effective Pablo Lopez, Griffin Jax, Sonny Gray, and Emilio Pagan have been, and they have had 69% (nice) of a season to give us data. As it pertains to Keuchel, the early returns are promising. He's using the same pitch mix (sinker/changeup/cutter/slider) that he's used for his whole career and has worked the count in a way we haven't seen from him since his '15-'17 stretch of dominance. His xBA allowed is quite worrying, though three soft singles likely skewed this small sample of data. His groundball rate has returned to the 60%+ range, and he only gave up two extra-base-worthy batted balls in 5.0 IP. On the whole, his performance doesn't raise a ton of additional concern from me; however, it hasn't inspired a ton of optimism, either.

I would feel really uncomfortable if Keuchel had to start a playoff game, but as a 6th starter, I think he brings some promise. What do you guys think? Does he deserve to start another game? Was his debut a fluke, or was it a sign that he's a changed pitcher? Thanks for staying with me through this statcast-infused salad, and I hope we can have a good discussion about Keuchel's future with the franchise.

[Captian Hook]

Dallas Keuchel did a fine job, and deserves to stay in the rotation.

I have been following Keuchel since he was with the Corpus Christi Hooks at AA in the Astros system in 2010 and 2011.

Dallas has never been over-powering, and never will be.

Dallas' strength is keeping the batter off-balance, and making less-than-desired contact.

Dallas does require a good defense behind him, but induces a lot of ground balls, double plays, and weak pop ups.

Dallas usually doesn't strike out the hitters he faces, but he doesn't walk them either.

Dallas keeps his teammates in the game and his opponents off balance.  Plus, Dallas gives the Twins rotation at least one left handed  pitcher .

Keep up the good work, Big D.  Welcome to the Twins rotation.

I'm looking forward to you teaching the Twins how to win a game or two in the playoffs.

[Ricky Willms]

Dallas did a great job this afternoon! Let me ask a question to Twins Daily At 35 years old What do you think your Velocity would be at? The man hasn't pitched since for awhile.

Cut the man some slack!!! 

[Doctor Wu]

1 hour ago, Captian Hook said:

I'm looking forward to you teaching the Twins how to win a game or two in the playoffs.

That would be a wonderful thing to see happen! Hey,  he's been there and won some playoff games, so it can't hurt to have his experience and advice to help our Twins, along with a healthy arm in the rotation. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

1 hour ago, Ricky Willms said:

Dallas did a great job this afternoon! Let me ask a question to Twins Daily At 35 years old What do you think your Velocity would be at? The man hasn't pitched since for awhile.

Cut the man some slack!!! 

Welcome to TD!

I am not, and never have been a major league pitcher. Comparing my gas to Dallas Kuechel’s isnt fair. Just like it wouldn’t be fair to compare his spreadsheets to mine. I’d kick his ass in a quant competition!

expectations are, and should be, higher for MLB players.

[Doctor Wu]

Thanks for such an in-depth analysis of Keuchel and his pitching patterns. Honestly, I still can't get my head around some of these advanced stats and numbers, but I appreciate the work you put into doing this, and it helps me understand his overall effectiveness. As you noted, he's basically the same pitcher he has always been, mixing his pitchers to keep the batters off balance. I hope he can fine-tune his arsenal of pitches even more in the next two months. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

3 hours ago, NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin said:

I'll apologize at the outset for a lengthy post, but I do believe that the Twins' FO and coaching staff are going to be having discussions revolving around this topic, and I feel TD should have it, too.

 

Causes of Keuchel's Decline

To say that I was skeptical of Dallas Keuchel's ability to be effective as a Twins starter would be an understatement. I definitely fall on the "Keuchel's AAA numbers are smoke and mirrors" side of the debate, and (24hrs ago) I would have rather seen a Varland/Winder/BP day start than Keuchel taking the ball. In my opinion, most of his issues related to a lack of the precise command that won him the AL Cy Young in '15.

In that season, his sinker averaged 90.0mph, and in 2016 (the first year statcast recorded vertical movement), it averaged 25.9" of drop (4.1" above average). In 2022, his average sinker velocity was 87.8mph with 30.1" of drop (3.8" above average). This kind of regression is normal-- Clayton Kershaw's average four-seamer has lost 3.0mph in the same 2015-2023 span.

Some of the off-speed stuff is not quite there. Keuchel's slider has regressed heavily. It averaged 52.2" of drop and 10.1" of sweep at 78.5mph in '16 while presenting a very hittable 45.3" of drop and 9.8" of sweep at 77.0mph in '22. His changeup was very heavy in arm-side run (18.3" in '15), and he has since traded ~4" of arm-side run for ~8" of drop.

Here is a screenshot of his Baseball Savant page with the information about his pure "stuff" (left) and control (right):

The information on the right paints a good picture of what is occurring. In '15 and '17, Keuchel prevented over 40 runs with pitches on the edges. His style revolved around pitching the hitter into two-strike counts and then making them swing at a pitch they weren't looking for on a fringe. That being said, the 1st Pitch Strike Percentage and Zone Percentage dropping 4.9% and 5.8%, respectively, since 2016 is quite worrying. He found himself in 3-0 counts 5.1% of the time in '22 (up from 3.0% in '15) and got to 0-2 in 19.5% of his PAs in '22 (down from 22.3% in '15). A changeup on the low outside corner is much more dangerous in 0-2 than it is in a 3-0 count, as the hitter is likely rolling that pitch over if he swings, yet he doesn't have to on 3-0. Pitching into good counts is how the Keuchels/Maedas/Civales of the baseball world make their living. Keuchel has not done a lot of that since the shortened COVID season and it's been his downfall.

His inability to work counts in his favor allowed hitters to be much choosier and sit on pitches, which is exasperated by the fact that he only throws in the high 80s. He can't throw an F-you fastball at the numbers the way Duran, Lopez, or Jax can throw on 3-0. Getting into favorable counts is imperative and a key sign of whether or not Keuchel will be able to revive his career.

 

His Twins Debut 

On a surface level, Keuchel was great in his debut. Pitching 5.0 innings of 1 ER ball is about as good as anyone could ask for, especially when the leverage corps all had a day of rest. If we go any deeper, however, we start to run into some complexity. He gave up 8 hits and 2 walks (2.00 WHIP) while striking out none (4.46 FIP). Of course, the 61.9% groundball percentage is much closer to his '15 GB rate (61.5%) than his '22 rate (50.7%). His hard-hit percentage (28.6%) is lower than any full-season mark of his, as well as his average EV (81.7mph). To see whether the hits were lucky (on the part of the hitters), let's take a look at every PA with Keuchel on the mound.

Top 1

Ketel Marte: Flyout (84.9mph at 47 degrees) .020 xBA      Corbin Carroll: Walk (N/A) N/A      Tommy Pham: GIDP (97.0mph at 0 degrees) .420 xBA

Top 2

Christian Walker: Groundout (39.6mph at -57 degrees) .220 xBA      Lourdes Gurriel: Single (88.5mph at 16 degrees) .930 xBA      Emmanuel Rivera: FC (83.1mph at -26 degrees) .070 xBA      Jake McCarthy: Single (59.4mph at -55 degrees) .330 xBA      Nick Ahmed: Groundout (96.9 mph at -3 degrees) .330 xBA

Top 3

Carson Kelly: Single (64.5mph at -1 degrees) .120 xBA      Ketel Marte: GIDP (78.4mph at 6 degrees) .290 xBA      Corbin Carroll: Single (98.6mph at 7 degrees) .590 xBA      Tommy Pham: Walk (N/A) N/A      Christian Walker: Lineout (112.1mph at 8 degrees) .780 xBA

Top 4

Lourdes Gurriel: Single (88.4mph at 18 degrees) .760 xBA      Emmanuel Rivera: Flyout (94.0mph at 40 degrees) .020 xBA      Jake McCarthy: Flyout (75.2mph at 54 degrees) .100 xBA      Nick Ahmed: Lineout (97.0 mph at 17 degrees) .490 xBA

Top 5

Carson Kelly: Double (103.5mph at 5 degrees) .590 xBA      Ketel Marte: Groundout (80.4mph at -8 degrees) .120 xBA      Corbin Carroll: Single (60.2mph at 30 degrees) .520 xBA      Tommy Pham: RBI Groundout (94.6mph at -16 degrees) .120 xBA      Christian Walker: Single (26.8mph at -42 degrees) .250 xBA     Lourdes Gurriel: Groundout (93.0mph at -16 degrees) .140 xBA

 

We can use an xBA of .350 to be our threshold of "allowable" xBA, where a hit recorded with an xBA less than .350 is judged to be "bad luck" and an out recorded on a ball with an xBA above .350 is "good luck." Using this threshold, Keuchel had three instances of "good luck" and three instances of "bad luck."

His average xBA was 0.343 with two walks, though only one of the eight hits went for extra bases (and none of the "loud outs" would have gone for extra bases except maybe the Walker lineout). An average xBA above .300 is quite atrocious, as it is considerably higher than his .289 xBA mark in 2022, when he was among the bottom 1% of the league in this category. Sample size and the lack of strikeouts are likely the culprit of this large number, though a 15% K-rate would only reduce the xBA to a .292 mark.

In terms of working the count, he reached zero 3-0 counts and had the hitter on an 0-2 count 21.7% of the time (very close to his '15 number). In this regard, he performed quite well and was able to get big outs by getting ahead of guys early. Additionally, the McCarthy hit in the 2nd, the Carroll hit in the 5th, and the Walker hit in the 5th all had xBAs above .250 despite being hit slower than 61mph. Expected batting average incorporates the batter's footspeed, and three balls hit under 61mphs resulting in hits is bad luck (despite what xBA says) as the pitcher has won if he can induce extremely weak contact.

 

Conclusion

Obviously, it's hard to make concrete conclusions about a five-inning start. We're still debating how effective Pablo Lopez, Griffin Jax, Sonny Gray, and Emilio Pagan have been, and they have had 69% (nice) of a season to give us data. As it pertains to Keuchel, the early returns are promising. He's using the same pitch mix (sinker/changeup/cutter/slider) that he's used for his whole career and has worked the count in a way we haven't seen from him since his '15-'17 stretch of dominance. His xBA allowed is quite worrying, though three soft singles likely skewed this small sample of data. His groundball rate has returned to the 60%+ range, and he only gave up two extra-base-worthy batted balls in 5.0 IP. On the whole, his performance doesn't raise a ton of additional concern from me; however, it hasn't inspired a ton of optimism, either.

I would feel really uncomfortable if Keuchel had to start a playoff game, but as a 6th starter, I think he brings some promise. What do you guys think? Does he deserve to start another game? Was his debut a fluke, or was it a sign that he's a changed pitcher? Thanks for staying with me through this statcast-infused salad, and I hope we can have a good discussion about Keuchel's future with the franchise.

Don’t apologize for a long OP. Great post!

[In My La Z boy]

I well remember the Dallas Keuchel I saw yesterday. If that's the DK we're going to get for the stretch run  he can help us greatly. Wiley veteran who induces soft contact and has been around the block, been a world series champion, another mentor for our young pitchers. Sign me up. 

[Trov]

I would disagree with just looking at xBA as a standard of luck.  I personally would say any weak contact that were not clearly intended to be so, a bunt, or a guy looking to hit the ball to a particular spot in the field is mostly luck.  Yes, Dallas got lucky on the liner right at the 3rd baseman with bases loaded, but I would not say the first double play was lucky.  I would say the couple of little looping line drives were more luck.  

I am not a fan of Keuchel and am not expecting much from him.  However, if he can be on a good run for a couple of weeks, luck or otherwise, I am fine with it.  I doubt he will be expected to help us in playoffs, barring injuries and would most likely not make roster, unless he puts up crazy performance last 2 months here. So if he can luck his way through next 2 months I am fine with it, but he is still just a 5th starter and would not start a playoff game. 

[jorgenswest]

Their options were Keuchel and Varland. I am not sure which is the better choice but going with Keuchel gives them Varland in reserve should another starter go down in August. Keuchel was the way to go and as long as he keeps the ball on the ground I would stick with him until Ryan returns healthy.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

Calling up Keuchel was a no-brainer. If he can pitch like he did yesterday, the Twins have someone that contribute down the stretch and hopefully in the post-season. Admittedly, it is a decent sized 'if' but we shall see...

[chpettit19]

I think a WHIP of 2 with an inability to strike people out is completely and totally unsustainable.

[In My La Z boy]

35 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I think a WHIP of 2 with an inability to strike people out is completely and totally unsustainable.

We'll see. It was only 5 innings. Maybe we get the DK of 2017? He was magic that year. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

56 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

Their options were Keuchel and Varland. I am not sure which is the better choice but going with Keuchel gives them Varland in reserve should another starter go down in August. Keuchel was the way to go and as long as he keeps the ball on the ground I would stick with him until Ryan returns healthy.

This is where I’m at too. Sonny and Pablo are both looking like they’re nursing some owies that might flare up into something worse, and Ober has already pitched the most innings in a season. The strength of the team in the first half is stretched right now, DK can help keep some depth.

also agreed w/ @chpettit19 WHIP of 2 is unsustainable, but he can help cobble things together for a while.

[chpettit19]

7 minutes ago, In My La Z boy said:

We'll see. It was only 5 innings. Maybe we get the DK of 2017? He was magic that year. 

I am willing to bet just about anything that 35 year old Dallas Keuchel is not getting back to 29 year old Dallas Keuchel levels.

[nicksaviking]

4 hours ago, Ricky Willms said:

Dallas did a great job this afternoon! Let me ask a question to Twins Daily At 35 years old What do you think your Velocity would be at? The man hasn't pitched since for awhile.

Cut the man some slack!!! 

I'm more concerned with winning baseball games than throwing a bone to a guy with declining stuff. 

I really don't want Keuchel in the rotation, we've seen this smoke and mirrors approach get absolutely destroyed in recent years. This isn't old school baseball anymore where a crafty vet with no velocity can out-duel the opposing team with his years of experience. The other team is using computers now; those have a better memory and predictive power than the crafty vet's brain.

The Twins have had problems with this type of pitcher recently too. If they have a couple of decent outings, they give these vets an unreasonably long leash. This could easily turn into a Dylan Bundy or J.A. Happ situation.

[In My La Z boy]

7 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I am willing to bet just about anything that 35 year old Dallas Keuchel is not getting back to 29 year old Dallas Keuchel levels.

We're going to find out together

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

All we need from Keuchel is 5-7 starts,  even 1 was worthwhile to give Ryan a break.  if needed he can give any other pitcher a breather if they need it.  He is merely an innings filler at this point that can hopefully leave you in a position to win the game.  Ultimately though other than Verlander, or Sherzer that is what we would have been looking for at the deadline, and we didn't have to give up a prospect.  

[Richie the Rally Goat]

30 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

The Twins have had problems with this type of pitcher recently too. If they have a couple of decent outings, they give these vets an unreasonably long leash. This could easily turn into a Dylan Bundy or J.A. Happ situation.

There’s no way he makes a post season roster, so he gets at most 10 starts. The only way he does is if there are two more injuries in the rotation, and if that happens…

[tony&rodney]

Keuchel did a good job of getting two strikes on batters yesterday. He needs to throw more enticing pitches when ahead in the count to earn a strike out or induce weak contact. Dallas threw a number of noncompetitive two strike pitches. The hard contact and lucky outs were easily offset by the weak contact. Nobody should expect more 5-6 inning starts with only one run scored when DK pitches If he can pitch 6 innings and give up 3 runs the Twins and fans should be happy. I expect more experienced bats will cause problems for Keuchel. The Phillies will be a real challenge. I  was initially expecting a Friday night start and then another start in Detroit. Philly is a tough park for pitchers and that lineup can score a pile of runs. We shall see.

[Irishman]

4 hours ago, Ricky Willms said:

Dallas did a great job this afternoon! Let me ask a question to Twins Daily At 35 years old What do you think your Velocity would be at? The man hasn't pitched since for awhile.

Cut the man some slack!!! 

Agreed! with you 110%.

[KirbyDome89]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

I think a WHIP of 2 with an inability to strike people out is completely and totally unsustainable.

Yeah anybody who watched that game and thought Keuchel pitched well, or that we can expect similar results is fooling themselves. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

I think a WHIP of 2 with an inability to strike people out is completely and totally unsustainable.

Completely agree over the long and mid-term.  However, sometimes smoke and mirrors can serve a pitcher like DK very well in the short term.  The Twins are due for a lucky, seemingly silly, bit of good luck. Maybe this is that time and regression can be postponed.  

[chpettit19]

2 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

Completely agree over the long and mid-term.  However, sometimes smoke and mirrors can serve a pitcher like DK very well in the short term.  The Twins are due for a lucky, seemingly silly, bit of good luck. Maybe this is that time and regression can be postponed.  

I'm just not overly interested in that sort of "cross your fingers and hope" strategy in August with a team struggling with consistency while trying to win a division. Maybe he only gets 3 starts and is released when Ryan comes back. Not the end of the world. But this isn't the route I'd go, and this FO's obsession with holding onto vets scares me and makes me think we'll see 8-10 starts out of him even if he starts giving up 7 earned in 2 innings every other start. I generally want to keep hope and prayer vets away from this FO because they don't move on from them quickly.

[adjacent]

It depends. If the goal is give a break to Ryan and/or Ober and/or whoever to have them fresh for the final run and playoffs, great! He looks like a pitcher capable to doing that. Now, at any time he can give you a clunker or two. If we are thinking a starter for the playoffs, I am more skeptical.

[jorgenswest]

1 hour ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

This is where I’m at too. Sonny and Pablo are both looking like they’re nursing some owies that might flare up into something worse, and Ober has already pitched the most innings in a season. The strength of the team in the first half is stretched right now, DK can help keep some depth.

also agreed w/ @chpettit19 WHIP of 2 is unsustainable, but he can help cobble things together for a while.

An ERA of 1.80 is very sustainable…

and meaningless short of a full season. Hits also need a large sample so it will be a long time before a WHIP is meaningful. One games WHIP (or several games) is not predictive of the next game at all. Neither is one games ERA. Velocity and some other pitch level data can give some insight for the next game.

[chpettit19]

2 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

An ERA of 1.80 is very sustainable…

and meaningless short of a full season. Hits also need a large sample so it will be a long time before a WHIP is meaningful. One games WHIP (or several games) is not predictive of the next game at all. Neither is one games ERA. Velocity and some other pitch level data can give some insight for the next game.

Dallas Keuchel had a 2.060 WHIP in 60.2 innings last year. His WHIP in 162 innings in 2021 was 1.531. So his WHIP in his last 227.2 major league innings is 1.6823. 

We're well aware that a 1 game WHIP isn't a useful data point on it's own. But he hasn't been good for years. His WHIP in AAA when some people around here were claiming he was dominating was 1.25. That's not exactly a great data point for him suddenly being better than a 1.6+ WHIP at the major league level.

[Riverbrian]

It was one game... let's see what happens in his 2nd start and 3rd start. I will be pulling for him. 

If you look at his career... his best seasons had a ground ball ratio in the 60 percent range and his worst seasons produced a GB% in the lower 50's.  

If he can keep producing ground balls... he just might be alright.  

Let's see what he does. 

[Road trip]

Keuchel is unlikely to be very good for the duration of this year.

Varland is the alternative 6th starter, and he is also unlikely to be very good (at the MLB level) for the duration of this year.

As noted by others above, perhaps a half dozen starts will be needed from the 6th starter.  I'm ok rolling with Keuchel, even if I don't expect much.  He will likely have some success like yesterday, as well as some games where he gets lit up.  The same would be true with Varland, but I might trust him even less for the duration of 2023.  His last 3 June starts with the Twins were pretty brutal.

Now, I'll be very annoyed if Keuchel turns this into a MLB contract for 2024 (unless he is unexpectedly awesome).  For '24 I'd much rather give Varland a chance.  But for this year, in the few starts remaining, I'm ok with the path chosen. 

[umterp23]

Only stat that truly matters - Twins won with Dallas on the mound.  

Keep the boys in the game and we got a couple of timely hits and Dallas will help us get through August.