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Posted

It is a bit of a complicated situation. the Twins like Gordon, but he's off to a dreadful start at the plate. Larnach has more upside, has an option, and has slowed a lot after a fast start. Castro has the same kinds of positional flexibility that Gordon has, but has an option left, and hasn't exactly lit the world on fire with his offense.

I think there's a decent argument to be made that you hold on Gordon until Farmer is ready to come back, given that if Kirilloff joins the squad there isn't much available for ABs for Larnach if Buxton keeps DHing...but the choice is coming.

Gordon is caught in the worst of the worst: he's been a little unlucky, but he's also been bad. there's basically no trade market for him now, and someone will take a chance on him, so I see little opportunity that he passes through waivers.

I this team (like many others) struggles with knowing when to give up on one of their guys. It's one thing to cut bait on a Joe Smith 3 months in; he was an old player on a 1-year deal with no history. It's harder to be that ruthless with one of your own guys who you've seen perform better, I think. (or if it's an asset you traded for, like Pagan) Even if maybe you should. Which seems to be part of why we're sticking with kepler and Gordon, even if they really don't fit as well on the roster any longer. Sunk cost fallacy is hard to rise above.

Posted
4 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

I didn't take it that Baddo or Wade have been great or even good, just that they were let go because of what the Twins thought of Larnach, and as of today that hasn't been great.

He's been better than both.....

Larnach has been hurt the last two years. I'm in no hurry to judge him at this point. Let's see where he is in July.

Posted

Although I mentioned this on the wrong thread, I feel there is no reason to keep Gordon. There are Nick Gordon clones available here and there. He is taking up a spot that could be filled with a more productive option. Bring up Julien. His OBP will be much higher in the long run and you don't lose that much flexibility.

Posted
4 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

It is a bit of a complicated situation. the Twins like Gordon, but he's off to a dreadful start at the plate. Larnach has more upside, has an option, and has slowed a lot after a fast start. Castro has the same kinds of positional flexibility that Gordon has, but has an option left, and hasn't exactly lit the world on fire with his offense.

I think there's a decent argument to be made that you hold on Gordon until Farmer is ready to come back, given that if Kirilloff joins the squad there isn't much available for ABs for Larnach if Buxton keeps DHing...but the choice is coming.

Gordon is caught in the worst of the worst: he's been a little unlucky, but he's also been bad. there's basically no trade market for him now, and someone will take a chance on him, so I see little opportunity that he passes through waivers.

I this team (like many others) struggles with knowing when to give up on one of their guys. It's one thing to cut bait on a Joe Smith 3 months in; he was an old player on a 1-year deal with no history. It's harder to be that ruthless with one of your own guys who you've seen perform better, I think. (or if it's an asset you traded for, like Pagan) Even if maybe you should. Which seems to be part of why we're sticking with kepler and Gordon, even if they really don't fit as well on the roster any longer. Sunk cost fallacy is hard to rise above.

See, I don't think they kept Kepler due to sunk cost fallacy (one of my favorites, as it were). I think they kept him because Larnach wasn't healthy, AK wasn't, they weren't playing Buxton in the field, etc.....they wanted depth. They have that now, but it is much harder now to do anything. No one makes trades yet, and no team just cuts a veteran that puts up league average fWAR. 

Posted
49 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

Toss Gordon keep Castro.  Kepler hasnt hit since 2019 but provides defense.  Unfortunately this team sorely needs offense so he has to be next man up to be next man gone.

Even if Kepler was the best defender in baseball, his offensive shortcomings aren't worth it. And, he's not anywhere close to the best defender in baseball - in fact, the whole "Kepler plays good defense" statement is debatable at this point. People keep saying that but only because it's something we've been told, there's really no hard data to back that up anymore. And he certainly doesn't pass the eye test. The guy's washed up and the sooner the Twins cut bait, the better - please, let's stop pretending he's Ozzie Smith already. 

Posted
2 minutes ago, Aerodeliria said:

Although I mentioned this on the wrong thread, I feel there is no reason to keep Gordon. There are Nick Gordon clones available here and there. He is taking up a spot that could be filled with a more productive option. Bring up Julien. His OBP will be much higher in the long run and you don't lose that much flexibility.

Where does Julien play? Gordon can sit on the bench, no biggie. Sitting Julien more days than playing him is not a good idea. That said, that guy should have a 1B glove, if Polanco is healthy, that's Julien's opportunity with Buxton the DH.

Posted
3 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

He's been better than both.....

Larnach has been hurt the last two years. I'm in no hurry to judge him at this point. Let's see where he is in July.

This type of statement has been said about Larnach for the past 3 years. He's been hurt a LOT, and the only times he's been given the opportunity to play for long stretches, he's been very bad. Anyone can cherry pick a couple good weeks - just look at the final stats he's put up any year he's played. It's not pretty!  

We are fans, sure. But we have to be adults and remember that just because you want him to be good, doesn't mean he is good or will be good. Let's all stop pretending that 27 year-old guys who have been in the league for 3 years are "prospects". 

If you put Larnach's numbers next to some unfamiliar name in the Pittsburgh Pirates system, and you wouldn't think twice about him. Look up Larnach's name in the similarity index on statcast, and you'll see: Kyle Garlic, Nelson Velazquez, and Kerry Carpenter as the most similar matches. Are we still excited? Why? Because he mashed college pitching at Oregon State 6 years ago?

We've been saying "Wait and see" on Larnach forever. Dude, we've waited. And we've seen. And I don't think we're going to get much out of this guy and the sooner we all realize it, the better off we'll be. 

Posted
Just now, bighat said:

This type of statement has been said about Larnach for the past 3 years. He's been hurt a LOT, and the only times he's been given the opportunity to play for long stretches, he's been very bad. Anyone can cherry pick a couple good weeks - just look at the final stats he's put up any year he's played. It's not pretty!  

We are fans, sure. But we have to be adults and remember that just because you want him to be good, doesn't mean he is good or will be good. Let's all stop pretending that 27 year-old guys who have been in the league for 3 years are "prospects". 

If you put Larnach's numbers next to some unfamiliar name in the Pittsburgh Pirates system, and you wouldn't think twice about him. Look up Larnach's name in the similarity index on statcast, and you'll see: Kyle Garlic, Nelson Velazquez, and Kerry Carpenter as the most similar matches. Are we still excited? Why? Because he mashed college pitching at Oregon State 6 years ago?

We've been saying "Wait and see" on Larnach forever. Dude, we've waited. And we've seen. And I don't think we're going to get much out of this guy and the sooner we all realize it, the better off we'll be. 

That's a fair stance, we don't agree. I'm not sure which player you want to see more of than him right now? 

Posted
12 minutes ago, bighat said:

Even if Kepler was the best defender in baseball, his offensive shortcomings aren't worth it. And, he's not anywhere close to the best defender in baseball - in fact, the whole "Kepler plays good defense" statement is debatable at this point. People keep saying that but only because it's something we've been told, there's really no hard data to back that up anymore. And he certainly doesn't pass the eye test. The guy's washed up and the sooner the Twins cut bait, the better - please, let's stop pretending he's Ozzie Smith already. 

Are you actually looking at the hard data though?

Kepler was 6th among all outfielders in OAA last year, and 13th in 2021.  I'm not saying he's Ozzie Smith in the outfield but he's clearly a good defender and there is plenty of recent hard data to back that up. 

And his offense was about 5% worse than the league average the last two years. Overall that's still a decent player.  I do think he is easily expendable, but he's hardly been a drag on the team overall.

Posted
14 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

That's a fair stance, we don't agree. I'm not sure which player you want to see more of than him right now? 

I'd like to see Kirilloff starting in RF every day for the Twins, effective immediately. 

Posted

I don't think any of us want to lose Gordon for nothing, especially after he showed last year that he can be a useful bench piece. However, with the current makeup of the roster, I just don't see how he stays on the roster all year without an abundance of injuries. With Kirilloff raking at AAA, Royce Lewis due to come back in less than 2 months, and Farmer likely returning in a month or so, I can't imagine Gordon remaining on the team for the entire season. 

Gordon's play has been atrocious and every swing Kirilloff takes for the Saints is a waste, especially with how listless our offense has been. I would cut bait with Gordon right now, knowing that he doesn't have a long-term roster spot anyway. Lewis can replace 110% of his versatility (especially since we actually trust Lewis to play SS) when he's healthy, and Julien or Wallner can come up and replace Gordon's lefty bat if injury strikes. 

Kirilloff should be our everyday starting 1B against RHP, sliding Gallo to LF, and Larnach and Kepler rotating in RF. When Kirilloff needs a day off (which could be fairly frequent with his wrist injury), Gallo can slide back to 1B, with Larnach and Kepler in the corner OF spots. Additionally, the Twins have avoided deplying Kepler in CF because he prefers to play RF, but why should we care where Kepler prefers to play? At this point, he should be our 4th OFer, and should be treated as such -- Jake Cave didn't get to choose to exclusively play RF. Kepler should start some games in CF when a RHP is on the mound to stack the lineup with lefty bats. 

Posted
1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

He's been better than both.....

Larnach has been hurt the last two years. I'm in no hurry to judge him at this point. Let's see where he is in July.

Well I would say that Wade's 2021 season was the best so far(he was 21st in the MVP voting) and Baddoo's 21 season is the second best season. Other than that those two have been terrible and Larnach hasn't been much better. Again, I thought the point was they were let go because the thought was that Larnach and maybe AK were superior to them and as this point those two haven't been competent major league players or just barely. I believe Larnach will be better (thus they did the right thing keeping him over the other two) then either of those two but he needs to get better and a hurry, sending a 26 year old to the minors is not a good sign for his career.

Posted
2 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

"I feel pretty strongly that if we didn't have a ton of left handed bats in the system - Larnach is going to have a better long term career than Gordon."  Please clarify.

Simply meaning that because of so many left handed corner outfielders in our system - Larnach may indeed get traded.  But - I also feel that when all is said and done, Larnach will have a better MLB career than Gordon - maybe just not with the Twins.

Posted
20 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Maybe it is time to play Gallo in centerfield against right handed pitchers when Kirilloff comes up. Taylor has done a good job out there.

It's early but Gallo's sprint speed is not good this year and that's continuing a multi-year decline.  I really do not think he is a ceterfielder anymore, and his arm is propping up below average range in the corners as well.

I think Kepler would be a good enough part-time backup there, but he's never been comfortable in center, and the team has seemed to have given up on the issue.

Posted

I don't see many difficult decisions. When your offense is struggling to score 3 runs a game there's a whole lot of easy decisions to make if you have someone coming off the IL who's showing they could be an upgrade. Gordon was on the verge of being DFA'd last year before playing a really nice 15 games in June, 14 even better games in July, and going on a tear for 24 games in August. He came back to earth in September, and outside those 53 games in the middle of last year he's never even been an average major leaguer. He's been absolutely brutal to start this year, and there's not much to look at and say he's likely to ever be a .750+OPS guy again. If you DFA him and he does become that guy somewhere else you tip your cap, and say "good for you, Nick." In his 113 starts last year he had a .722 OPS, and that was supposed to be his big "breakout" year. 2B and LF aren't exactly defensive spots where the Twins don't have options, either. He's simply not that valuable of a player.

And if moving on from Kepler ruins your season you weren't set to have a great season anyways. I've defended Kepler in the past as a guy who's a decent player who's just been expected to perform above his talents because the team keeps putting him at the top of the order. He isn't that guy. They continue to do it this year, and it's still not who he is. If he's hitting 7-9 in the order it's not such a tragedy, but if you can't replace your 7-9 hitter without your season falling apart you didn't have a very good lineup anyways.

The "kids" (Lewis, Kirilloff, Larnach, Miranda, Julien, Martin, and Lee) were always going to be the key to the season. Gordon and Kepler were always fighting for a roster spot as long as they could hold on. Neither is doing much to hold onto a spot now, and it's time to sink or swim with the kids. Kirilloff should be up today, and I really don't understand why he's not unless his wrist has been giving him problems we don't know about. It hasn't shown in his performance. If he's playing everyday in St Paul anyways why can't he do it in Minneapolis? Is playing in a Twins jersey instead somehow worse for his wrist? His situation is different than Buxton's. Either that wrist is going to give out or it isn't. It isn't right now so let's quit wasting his swings for the Saints and give this brutal Twins lineup a boost. Buxton-Polanco-Correa-Kirilloff-Miranda-Gallo should be the top 6 guys in the lineup for 10 straight days to see if they can get this thing going. 

There's no tough decisions here. Start playing the guys who actually have the chance to be above average major leaguers in the top 5-6 spots in the order. Everyday (with Buxton getting his 1 in 10 days off). Quit worrying about borderline big league players. If you can't replace Gordon or Kepler you're doomed anyways.

Posted
1 hour ago, bighat said:

I'd like to see Kirilloff starting in RF every day for the Twins, effective immediately. 

Toss up? We've actually been waiting longer for Kirilloff than Larnach. I don't honestly think any of us can tell the difference. #1 pick in '16, #1 pick in '18. Still waiting on both, and neither have separated themselves from the other. Why an automatic put him in RF for Kirilloff, and why a send him down for Larnach?

Posted
15 minutes ago, farmerguychris said:

Simply meaning that because of so many left handed corner outfielders in our system - Larnach may indeed get traded.  But - I also feel that when all is said and done, Larnach will have a better MLB career than Gordon - maybe just not with the Twins.

I can't see them trading Larnach.  That might work this year but next year Gallo / Kepler and Taylor are gone.  I will continue to hope they find a trade partner for Kepler or Gordon or just cut Gordon.

Posted
2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Where does Julien play? Gordon can sit on the bench, no biggie. Sitting Julien more days than playing him is not a good idea. That said, that guy should have a 1B glove, if Polanco is healthy, that's Julien's opportunity with Buxton the DH.

Yeah, that's just the problem.  I think the take on Julien learning 1B is a solid one, but I think that's probably going to take some time.  Remember the original plan was to have him learn one of the corner outfield spots, as that seemed to be the more immediate route to playing time.

Except we have a logjam there, too, which is the whole point of this topic.  I wonder if the front office truly anticipated that Byron Buxton was going to be the everyday DH heading into May, or if it was more of a situation where the knee was barking around Opening Day, but they'd hoped it would clear up after a week or two and he could go back in the field.  Because losing the option to DH guys like Larnach, Julien, and Kiriloff makes it significantly harder to get the young guys regular playing time.  Julien is not going to "replace" Jorge Polanco.  And, shockingly, Kepler just started 7 games in a row after coming back from injury, until he finally sat against a lefty (P. Corbin).  (FWIW, Kepler's splits in 2022 were somewhat even, but he was trash against lefties in 2020 and 2021).

 

It's not just that guys like Kepler are bad.  It's that when you bring a veteran back like that, they're so much harder to get out of the lineup when they inevitably slump.  400+ AB's this year from Larnach, Julien, or Kiriloff would be SO much more valuable than getting the same exact production from Kepler in their place.

Posted

I agree with Mike Sixel on why Kepler was kept, and have previously stated pretty much the same thing: with questions about a Gallo rebound and Larnach and Kirilloff health, and lack of assurance that Gordon's half breakout in 2022 was for real, and was Wallner readybfor full time dity,you keep Kepler for depth, and MAYBE, a turnaround himself. 

I have been a fan and proponent for both Kepler and Gordon for some time. When many stated previously and early 2022 that Gordon was an easy cut I defended the decision to keep him and give him some more time. And HOPEFULLY the last half of 2022 can be the real version of him. But even still, where does he fit long term on this team?

Larnach, AK, and Wallner all have equally as good and very probably better offensive profiles. While final ML numbers have been skewed due to playing with/through injury, Larnach and AK have flashed when healthy. They have milb numbers Gordon could only ever hope for. Ditto for Wallner. And again, I'm a Gordon fan who's been rooting for him for a some time and argued his value. But with powerful players with higher ceilings than him, and with an infield of AK, Julien, Polanco, Lewis, Correa, Miranda, Lee, and an INF/OF possibility of Martin, where does Gordon fit?

Where does Kepler fit in the OF future with all the above mentioned names, plus kids like E Rodriguez coming up, possible INF to OF conversions, and then needs for solid reserves such as Taylor, Celestino NY the end of this year maybe, etc.

I can like a player, wish they would do better, bit still realize they simply aren't producing, don't seemingly have a long term fit with the team, and are probably replaced fairly soon one way or another.

Now, if anyone wants to send down the talented, and far more productive Larnach to keep Gordon a little longer to see if he gets in a groove, I might not agree with you, but can at least see your logic. But at the same time, I'd have to argue keeping someone that doesn't fit long term is a good idea why? To increase trade value? Meanwhile the better player is sitting at AAA?

Again, I can like a player and feel bad they might not fit any longer or may be on their way out. But when a guy continues to struggle and someone who appears to be better now, and a fit for the future, really hard for me to not see the writing on the way.

Posted

All about options and Larnach has them. If he starts to tank anymore, he will justify keeping Gordon and Kepler, for the time being. Kirilloff would push Gallo back to the outfield. 

Farmer pushes Castro out. I was hoping Castro would give the Twins some base running. Not that he has had opportunities, but that was his best method for staying with the Twins.

Polanco could be an interesting option going forth. Does he hit well enough to keep around for at least another season? Where does that put folks like Lee and Lewis and Julien in the scheme of things, not to mention Martin.

Of course, everyone has to excel a bit better with the bats. Thank goodness the Twins rotation ahs kept the teams in games.

Posted

Not so tough - Gordon's composite for three years is 

250 .295 .384 .679

 

Trevor Larnach for the same period 

227 .318 .371

.689

 

We can cut both at this stage.

And Kepler - for those same three years has been 

.222 .312 .353 .664

We can cut him too.

Willi Castro for that three year period is

.229 .278 .359 .637

Yes we can cut him too.

So what is the hard decision - is it which one goes first?  

There is room for Kiriloff, Lewis, Lee, Julien without any trouble at all. 

Posted
4 hours ago, USAFChief said:

We're worried Gordon would be claimed if waived? Why?

 

This isnt a tough call. I have trouble understanding how anyone would prefer Nick Gordon to Trevor Larnach. Nick Gordon wasn't, isn't and never will be someone who holds down a MLB position. He doesn't hit well enough.

Larnach has a chance to be an impact bat.

 

Nick Gordon 2021 OPS+ 2022 OPS+ 113 [443 PA] 2023 OPS+ -24

Max Kepler 2021 OPS+ 98 2022 OPS+ 93 2023 OPS+ 81

Trevor Larnach 2021 OPS+ 88 2022 OPS+ 104 2023 OPS+ 100

Joey Gallo 2021 OPS+ 93 2022 OPS+ 79  2023 OPS+ 193

One statement is true: Of all the full seasons listed above, the highest OPS+ of all was Nick Gordon.

Another truth is that OOTP had Nick Gordon rated as a 70 in LF using the 20-80.

I’d go with an outfield of Gordon, Taylor and Gallo and give Lewis and Martin and Wallner their chance to break in as warranted.

Posted
3 hours ago, bighat said:

This type of statement has been said about Larnach for the past 3 years. He's been hurt a LOT, and the only times he's been given the opportunity to play for long stretches, he's been very bad. Anyone can cherry pick a couple good weeks - just look at the final stats he's put up any year he's played. It's not pretty!  

We are fans, sure. But we have to be adults and remember that just because you want him to be good, doesn't mean he is good or will be good. Let's all stop pretending that 27 year-old guys who have been in the league for 3 years are "prospects". 

If you put Larnach's numbers next to some unfamiliar name in the Pittsburgh Pirates system, and you wouldn't think twice about him. Look up Larnach's name in the similarity index on statcast, and you'll see: Kyle Garlic, Nelson Velazquez, and Kerry Carpenter as the most similar matches. Are we still excited? Why? Because he mashed college pitching at Oregon State 6 years ago?

We've been saying "Wait and see" on Larnach forever. Dude, we've waited. And we've seen. And I don't think we're going to get much out of this guy and the sooner we all realize it, the better off we'll be. 

Forever! When it’s not even the start of his third year of major league action.  Had he not had some injuries we would know a lot more about him but forever is a long time. 

I’m fine with sending him down to solve a short term crunch but I don’t think he’s going to prove he can hit breaking balls at AAA. Hit straight ball very much!

Posted
3 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

Not so tough - Gordon's composite for three years is 

250 .295 .384 .679

 

Trevor Larnach for the same period 

227 .318 .371

.689

 

We can cut both at this stage.

And Kepler - for those same three years has been 

.222 .312 .353 .664

We can cut him too.

Willi Castro for that three year period is

.229 .278 .359 .637

Yes we can cut him too.

So what is the hard decision - is it which one goes first?  

There is room for Kiriloff, Lewis, Lee, Julien without any trouble at all. 

Marcus Semien was traded away after his first 927 Pas.  At the time his stat line was .251 / .304 / .396.  There are many other similar stories.  Many players need a few hundred or a thousand PAs to get going at the MLB level.  Obviously, history has some predictive value but there are far too many success stories after a slow start to conclude a player will never be good because of a stat line.  Talk about making decisions based on a spreadsheet.

Posted
3 hours ago, farmerguychris said:

Simply meaning that because of so many left handed corner outfielders in our system - Larnach may indeed get traded.  But - I also feel that when all is said and done, Larnach will have a better MLB career than Gordon - maybe just not with the Twins.

Thanks for clarifying.

Posted
5 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Could we get a halfway decent A ball prospect for Gordon or a 17-18 year old DSL player?  That would be a more dignified option than cutting him.

Yeah, I don't understand why this idea isn't a lot more common. I mean, if a couple months of Nelson Cruz can fetch Joe Ryan, Gordon might be able to get a couple of lottery tickets in return.

I'b be a lousy GM, because I'd pretty much ignore where we are in the standings and look to trade players with marginal utility whenever a more promising replacement was surfacing in AAA. So, yeah, at the deadline, I'm dangling Gordon, Kepler, Pagan, Gallo, Solano, and maybe even Miranda, none of whom are likely difference-makers and all of whom can probably be adequately replaced by Lewis, Julien, Wallner, Garlick (for now), some combo of Sands, Henriquez, Headrick et al in relief, maybe Lee and Austin Lee when rosters expand... I say trade trade trade and hope for another Joe Ryan, Jhoan Duran or three. Ignore the standings. Polanco goes over the winter if Lee looks ready to stick.

Posted
21 minutes ago, bird said:

Yeah, I don't understand why this idea isn't a lot more common. I mean, if a couple months of Nelson Cruz can fetch Joe Ryan, Gordon might be able to get a couple of lottery tickets in return.

I'b be a lousy GM, because I'd pretty much ignore where we are in the standings and look to trade players with marginal utility whenever a more promising replacement was surfacing in AAA. So, yeah, at the deadline, I'm dangling Gordon, Kepler, Pagan, Gallo, Solano, and maybe even Miranda, none of whom are likely difference-makers and all of whom can probably be adequately replaced by Lewis, Julien, Wallner, Garlick (for now), some combo of Sands, Henriquez, Headrick et al in relief, maybe Lee and Austin Lee when rosters expand... I say trade trade trade and hope for another Joe Ryan, Jhoan Duran or three. Ignore the standings. Polanco goes over the winter if Lee looks ready to stick.

I would take your brand of  GM.  Continuously producing long-term value makes for sustainable success.  Pretty much what the Rays do.  Anyone can trade the future for the present.  That does not take great skill.   Balancing the two .... Not so easy.

Posted (edited)

Larnach leads the team in RBI's. He leads the team in walks. He is third in OBP among players with over 50 plate appearances. And he is hitting 411 with runners in scoring position. The  team is having trouble scoring. AND SOME OF YOU ARE SAYING WE SHOULD GET RID OF HIM. What exactly are you looking at?

Edited by gman
missing word
Posted

It’s mind blowing to me that some are still clinging onto to Gordon.  Most have come around.

He can’t hit.  Never has been able to, aside from the outlier last year.  If you were able to get that from him consistently, he may pass as a platoon, replacement level guy.  We have 4-5-6 of those guys in AAA right now at their floor.  He has no defensive value whatsoever, don’t know why his “ability” to take up space at multiple positions matters.

Great guy by all accounts.  But, there’s a lot of great people out there that don’t get free rides in the MLB.

Wallner is a much better player right now.  Larnach is a much better player right now.  Julien is a much better player right now.  Kirilloff is a much better player right now.  It’s absurd to have a list of guys like that stuck in AAA for Gordon.

If he catches in and succeeds somewhere else, good for him.  I hope he does.  But, he’ll probably go unclaimed.  Nobody is banging down the door for a nearly 30 year old with no high end tool or upside.  40 man spots are too valuable.

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