BREAKING: Twins Finalizing an Extension with Star Pitcher Pablo Lopez

[jmlease1]

Very exciting news! The numbers are very good for the twins, IMHO: Lopez is a quality starter and has already shown he's worth that kind of money. Whether you like fWAR or bWAR (I tend to like bWAR more for pitchers as showing what they actually did and their value, and fWAR for trying to get a feel for future value) Lopez has already been worth that kind of contract that last two seasons, and that's even with him missing substantial time in 2021.

I'm frankly amazed that it's only a 4 year deal at this money; I honestly would have expected 5-6 years as more likely, or higher money at fewer years. That's really good business for the team. At the same time it's life-changing, generational money for Lopez and his family, so I can understand his desire to get locked in and guaranteed. He'll still have an opportunity to test free agency at an age where guys can still command huge money if he performs anywhere near his capacity over this contract.

Locking in Lopez long-term feels like a great move.

The interesting comp is Berrios, who was a more accomplished and consistent pitcher when Toronto acquired him than Lopez was when the Twins acquired him. Lopez might have been seen as having a higher ceiling, but Berrios had been both consistent and healthy. Twins got an extra 1/2 season in control by acquiring Lopez in the off-season, but otherwise...lots of similarities. Berrios got a longer and higher AAV for his extension (which to date has been not so great), so this is interesting. the Rodon comp is interesting as well: Rodon had probably more significant health risks, but had also proven that ceiling after 2022. He also had more negotiating power as a free agent, but it's a huge difference in years and dollars. If that's the going rate for starting pitchers...this looks like good business indeed.

[ashbury]

2 hours ago, 2wins87 said:

 

Dang it, the site software tricked me into pressing Submit twice, again!

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, 2wins87 said:

somewhere between a solid bargain and a steal.

Closer to the former than the latter IMO.  Compared to a true free-agent scenario, the money commitment is a fraction.  But, and this is important, it's not a free-agent scenario.  From the player's perspective, he has to balance the brass ring that free-agency could represent, versus having to go nearly 2 full seasons until that moment, during which his performance could fall off to merely "average starter" or even suffer an injury.  The Twins could just go year to year, but instead are underwriting the player's risk to a significant degree. 

For the Twins it's a fair deal.  It has very high upside, but they are assuming what sounds like 4 years of risk by guaranteeing even 1 dollar beyond this year.  In effect some portion of the $73.5M is an insurance policy for him.  He's set for life now.

Win-win, but IMO not a steal, nor would I want it to be.

[Craig Arko]

This makes me very happy. Well, maybe could be a little happier if Pablo tossed a few bucks my way. :)

[Mike Sixel]

This is great news.

[Nine of twelve]

1 hour ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

And the entire offseason really hinged around that move that was half patience, half dumb luck.

Sometimes you make your own luck. In this case it turns out that the FO had Correa's value pegged pretty well and chose to let him go rather than to compromise on the contract. Turns out the Giants and Mets got carried away, offered him too much, and then tried to walk things back. Meanwhile the Twins never wavered and were ready when the opportunity presented itself.

[Nine of twelve]

1 hour ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

Nice move.  So it appears the starting pitching strategy is to not go for FA pitchers, rather trade prospects/MLB talent for starters that have at least 2-years of control (e.g. Maeda, Gray, Paddack, Mahle, Lopez), monitor them for awhile, then extend them or let the go for a sandwich pick.

Is it cheaper to trade assets and get a MLB starter for 20MM per season than pay no prospects and go the FA route at 30MM per season?  This FO obviously prefers the former strategy rather than the latter.

The more I think about this the more it makes sense. Free agents very often are past their peak performance and a poor value for the size of their contracts. At the other extreme, it is very difficult to project the eventual performance of a draftee who has never faced professional hitters. A player at least two years into his professional career is going to be much easier for scouts and player development people to evaluate. So once again this reinforces that scouting and player development are the keys to success, especially for small-to-mid market teams.

[jimbo92107]

Huge plus for the Twins. That video clip is a revelation: Pablo was worth Arraez BEFORE adding his new wipeout sweeper. See what that monster does? You're the batter, you see him release the ball middle-middle, it stays middle-middle until it's half way to the plate, THEN it bends 16 inches glove side, winding up literally half a foot beyond the end of your bat. We see why this works so well based on hitters swinging at a spot they predict at or just after the pitcher's release. 

If Pablo does a good job masking his delivery, he will get hundreds of strikeouts with his new sweeper. The only defense against that pitch is not to swing. But how can you not swing at a pitch that looks middle-middle out of the pitcher's hand? Oh, the deception! Oh, the cruelty! Pablo Lopez, you naughty boy, I'm telling mom!

[Trov]

35 minutes ago, Nine of twelve said:

The more I think about this the more it makes sense. Free agents very often are past their peak performance and a poor value for the size of their contracts. At the other extreme, it is very difficult to project the eventual performance of a draftee who has never faced professional hitters. A player at least two years into his professional career is going to be much easier for scouts and player development people to evaluate. So once again this reinforces that scouting and player development are the keys to success, especially for small-to-mid market teams.

I fully agree.  If you look at most FA contracts for pitchers, a small percentage of top contract do pitchers live up to.  Most end up being very over paid for poor performance, if any performance due to injury.  For a mid-market team, signing poor contracts for long term guys will hamper you.  Also, always hoping drafted guys to develop will not always work out either.  

Although it would seem to make sense to only spend on FA pitching, as then you can always keep who you think is the best players for your team, but people forget you can only have 40 guys on roster at a time, and after so long they get exposed to other teams taking them anyways.  

[roger]

No one is talking about the one change to the Twins front office this past winter.  This change, Joe Pohlad taking over for his uncle Jim, may be the reason we are seeing front office decisions that are much different than what they are known for.

Joe Pohlad is a baseball man.  Has worked in baseball every day since walking off the campus at Boston College.  His experience will have him looking at situations much different than Jim.  It is this different view, the view from a baseball man, that may be why we are seeing a different front office in 2023.

[James]

1 hour ago, jmlease1 said:

I'm frankly amazed that it's only a 4 year deal at this money; I honestly would have expected 5-6 years as more likely, or higher money at fewer years. 

I'm not surprised it's only 4 years. The Twins are buying his prime athletic years and nothing more. They always have the chance to add another extension if he still is pitching great near the end of that contract.

On the Lopez side, he gets good money and becomes a FA with another chance to cash in big if he wants.  

This is a big win for both sides. Lopez probably get about $8M more than he'd get in arbitration, plus a decent rate for the next 3 years after.  They Twins get a controllable pitcher with high upside at a reasonable price.  

Needless to say that I'm excited about this deal.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Not an overpay, getting a potential #1 in his prime, not overly long.

How can you not like this signing?

[Franchise Adams]

Love it. Spending money on the right player is great, like it was for Correa. I'd also like it if they found a way to keep Sonny Gray. 

[Jocko87]

15 minutes ago, roger said:

No one is talking about the one change to the Twins front office this past winter.  This change, Joe Pohlad taking over for his uncle Jim, may be the reason we are seeing front office decisions that are much different than what they are known for.

Joe Pohlad is a baseball man.  Has worked in baseball every day since walking off the campus at Boston College.  His experience will have him looking at situations much different than Jim.  It is this different view, the view from a baseball man, that may be why we are seeing a different front office in 2023.

I was just wondering the same thing. There has been a noticeable difference over the past year that could be partly attributed to the Correa/Boras effect but this move seems like all owner. Makes me think Joe has been pretty involved behind the scenes and willing to do what it takes to maximize this window.

[Doctor Gast]

29 minutes ago, roger said:

No one is talking about the one change to the Twins front office this past winter.  This change, Joe Pohlad taking over for his uncle Jim, may be the reason we are seeing front office decisions that are much different than what they are known for.

Joe Pohlad is a baseball man.  Has worked in baseball every day since walking off the campus at Boston College.  His experience will have him looking at situations much different than Jim.  It is this different view, the view from a baseball man, that may be why we are seeing a different front office in 2023.

I was thinking the same thing, that's why I put FO & Co.. I think Joe has some imput and also I think Correa has FO's ears. Because this move isn't in character of this FO.

[James]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

I was thinking the same thing, that's why I put FO & Co.. I think Joe has some imput and also I think Correa has FO's ears. Because this move isn't in character of this FO.

Or is this the type of move that the FO has been trying to make for a while and the now they have an owner that is on board?

[spanman2]

Not sure how any fan cant approve of this deal?  Good all the way around.

[Nine of twelve]

1 hour ago, roger said:

No one is talking about the one change to the Twins front office this past winter.  This change, Joe Pohlad taking over for his uncle Jim, may be the reason we are seeing front office decisions that are much different than what they are known for.

Joe Pohlad is a baseball man.  Has worked in baseball every day since walking off the campus at Boston College.  His experience will have him looking at situations much different than Jim.  It is this different view, the view from a baseball man, that may be why we are seeing a different front office in 2023.

Really excellent point and post. When Joe took over some people said that he had "been groomed" for his position. To me that's borderline insulting. Joe realized at some point, possibly as early as when he was in high school, that he was the one best suited to assume control of the team when it was time for Jim to step back. (I have to believe that there have been numerous family discussions over the years that have reinforced this.) But my take is that once he knew this was what his future held he set about working hard to get the knowledge and experience needed to do the job as well as he could. His grandfather and uncle seem to have been highly skilled business people, but neither had a strong baseball background like Joe now has. This bodes well for the team's future.

[cHawk]

If Lopez amasses 9.2 total WAR over the next four years, or an average of 2.3 WAR per year, this contract will be worth it. He had 2.8 WAR last year and will only improve, as he is 27 years old.

Never thought I would see the day. Not only did the Twins sign a starting pitcher to a major multi-year deal, but the deal itself was a hell of a good one.

[bird]

2 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

I was just wondering the same thing. There has been a noticeable difference over the past year that could be partly attributed to the Correa/Boras effect but this move seems like all owner. Makes me think Joe has been pretty involved behind the scenes and willing to do what it takes to maximize this window.

I believe you and Roger are reading things into this decision that simply aren't there. First of all, Joe has been under Uncle Jim's mentorship for a long time. Probably still is, to a small extent. Secondly, I don't know what's so different about THIS decision versus many others that were made pre-Joe. I don't see any evidence at all that there's been a change in philosophy, strategy, tactics, financial circumstance, etc. Third, like when Jim was in Joe's place, Falvey and Levine, relying on their own baseball people in analytics, development, scouting, and medical, are operating with a great deal more authority and leeway than a lot of people think. Joe Pohlad may not even been called into a meeting on this, but yeah, they probably gave him a courtesy heads up lol.

[MMMordabito]

Good deal! Now lock up Ryan too!

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

8 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

As much as I've railed on the front office over the past couple of years, they've been doing a hell of a lot right for the past six months, even if the way they get there is... unexpected.

Quite the change from you were done with this front office 😂  As stated then you have to take the emotion out of a singular signing, lack of signing ect.  They have a template and follow it.  They continue to gain value on the margins,  and the decisions generally always seem to have a positive impact to the organization.  The cumulative value is starting to show up.  Now can the higher salary players continue to perform.   We will see.    Here is the thing,  they keep taking big swings.  The contracts they do are friendly to the team.  They keep plugging away.   We need to rebuild the minors again and this draft will help,  but the front office has done a good job of having immediate success,  using trades to continue to be competitive and continue to draft well to keep the pipeline fairly well stocked.  We went from a weaker team with a stronger minor league last year, to the opposite this year.   The entire organization is light years ahead where it was 5-6 years ago.  

[ashbury]

47 minutes ago, MMMordabito said:

Good deal! Now lock up Ryan too!

Ryan currently is locked up for 5 years counting the current one.  The FO has been averse to pitcher contracts longer than that, and I'm not sure the potential reward is high enough to counter the financial risk of guaranteeing salary for years that the team can still go year-to-year with, on Ryan.

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 hour ago, IA Bean Counter said:

Quite the change from you were done with this front office 😂  As stated then you have to take the emotion out of a singular signing, lack of signing ect.

I was done with them because they had missed on every significant free agent at the time. Not most of them, all of them. Only through the completely unexpected absurdity of the Correa signing were they able to get back on track. It wasn't an emotional response, it was a response to "you have $50m to spend and literally no one worth spending it on".

They get, at best, partial credit for Correa. Most of their other moves were good.

And let's not pretend that this was the first offseason that looked dire. The offseason before that was... less than spectacular if I'm being generous. Some might have even called it "absolutely awful". They went out and got Correa and were sunk once again by bad pitching signings, a recurring theme of their administration.

I wasn't looking at any single move, I was looking at their entire body of work. Which, at best, has been mixed.

[DocBauer]

Why do all the big moves seem to keep happening lately early in the day and I have to work and come in to the discussion late? LOL

This is tremendous news! I'm only partially surprised as I thought this might happen, and was their intent, but I thought it would happen during the offseason. I always felt was this was their intent when the trade took place. To be fair, I also think was their intent with the trade for Mahle, but things didn't go the way hoped for after the trade was made. Time will tell.

Despite the new sweeper and a great start to this season, and definite potential still available to grow, it's too early to state he's going to be a true ACE caliber #1 SP. But I would say he's shown enough with Miami, and now, to show a floor as an excellent #2 at worst. But if he remains healthy, which is always true of any arm, and he has had some mild shoulder issues, he is just now approaching the perfect age where STUFF and EXPERIENCE, can lead to  prime years as a #1, and possible ACE status. 

Berrios has been mentioned. And it's not a bad comparison for obvious reasons. The Twins didn't want to do anything close to 7yrs. But even though they lost out on FA like Darvish and Wheeler, they were initially in on 5yr deals for both. So the FO is not adverse to longer contracts, they just don't want deals beyond that. And I can understand that logic. I felt Lopez would need an extension of about $20M per year. Maybe a little more if his 2023 is great. Still manageable. Signing him NOW, slightly lowers what I expected. But it also guarantees him and his family life changing money vs a mitigated risk that always exists for any pitcher who could face injury risk. So this is really a very fair contract for both parties involved. And if he remains healthy, there's a real chance for another deal in his future going in to his age 32yo season.

This works well and fair for both sides.

Beyond this signing being a good deal, and helping stabilize the future rotation, the Twins are in a very interesting position. Ober is a legitimate mid rotation SP, a #4 at worst. How many teams, including past Twins teams, would have Varland waiting in the wings as a current #7 SP option? Varland is ready now. Who knows about the future of Paddack, but that's to be determined in 2024. There is too much season to play out before anything else happens. 

But there are very realistic chances that Gray and Mahle might receive offers. I'm not dismissing Maeda, but he's in a weird place where we can't realistically talk about him until later in the season. There's a chance that Gray and Mahle could both receive qualifying offers for $19-20M. Accepting said offer adds another quality SP to 2024 to increase depth. It's also possible one of them pitches well enough to earn an extension vs the QO. But by age, they are in different places. 

If Gray, a great leader amongst the pitchers, would take a 2yr deal for $30M...maybe a 3rd year option for less with a buyout...he would just about match his best contract to this point. He might jump on that. And Mahle could raise his game, be healthy, and raise his game, and be in the discussion for an extension as well. Again, either might be worthy of a QO to either agree or move on and provide the Twins with an additional draft pick.

What the Lopez signing does is provide STABILITY and options.

 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I’m sure it’s going to happen, but when does this go from ‘finalizing’ to ‘finalized’? 🙂

[wabene]

Dan Hayes said in the comments of his article on this signing that he's heard that Gray wants to test free agency. That could change with a great experience here this year, but my guess is the qualifying offer for him. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I’ll admit I don’t understand how qualifying offers work. Sonny Gray has been in the league 10+ years with multiple organizations. I thought these were only for guys after their last arbitration season and team control.

Either way I would like to have Gray back but at this point, better to cross that bridge only when it’s time. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

15 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

Why do all the big moves seem to keep happening lately early in the day and I have to work and come in to the discussion late? LOL

This is tremendous news! I'm only partially surprised as I thought this might happen, and was their intent, but I thought it would happen during the offseason. I always felt was this was their intent when the trade took place. To be fair, I also think was their intent with the trade for Mahle, but things didn't go the way hoped for after the trade was made. Time will tell.

Despite the new sweeper and a great start to this season, and definite potential still available to grow, it's too early to state he's going to be a true ACE caliber #1 SP. But I would say he's shown enough with Miami, and now, to show a floor as an excellent #2 at worst. But if he remains healthy, which is always true of any arm, and he has had some mild shoulder issues, he is just now approaching the perfect age where STUFF and EXPERIENCE, can lead to  prime years as a #1, and possible ACE status. 

Berrios has been mentioned. And it's not a bad comparison for obvious reasons. The Twins didn't want to do anything close to 7yrs. But even though they lost out on FA like Darvish and Wheeler, they were initially in on 5yr deals for both. So the FO is not adverse to longer contracts, they just don't want deals beyond that. And I can understand that logic. I felt Lopez would need an extension of about $20M per year. Maybe a little more if his 2023 is great. Still manageable. Signing him NOW, slightly lowers what I expected. But it also guarantees him and his family life changing money vs a mitigated risk that always exists for any pitcher who could face injury risk. So this is really a very fair contract for both parties involved. And if he remains healthy, there's a real chance for another deal in his future going in to his age 32yo season.

This works well and fair for both sides.

Beyond this signing being a good deal, and helping stabilize the future rotation, the Twins are in a very interesting position. Ober is a legitimate mid rotation SP, a #4 at worst. How many teams, including past Twins teams, would have Varland waiting in the wings as a current #7 SP option? Varland is ready now. Who knows about the future of Paddack, but that's to be determined in 2024. There is too much season to play out before anything else happens. 

But there are very realistic chances that Gray and Mahle might receive offers. I'm not dismissing Maeda, but he's in a weird place where we can't realistically talk about him until later in the season. There's a chance that Gray and Mahle could both receive qualifying offers for $19-20M. Accepting said offer adds another quality SP to 2024 to increase depth. It's also possible one of them pitches well enough to earn an extension vs the QO. But by age, they are in different places. 

If Gray, a great leader amongst the pitchers, would take a 2yr deal for $30M...maybe a 3rd year option for less with a buyout...he would just about match his best contract to this point. He might jump on that. And Mahle could raise his game, be healthy, and raise his game, and be in the discussion for an extension as well. Again, either might be worthy of a QO to either agree or move on and provide the Twins with an additional draft pick.

What the Lopez signing does is provide STABILITY and options.

 

I’m so glad you brought up Darvish and Wheeler 🙂 who cost only money, without having to factor in the value of Luis Arraez, both Arraez’s salary and his value at the plate over his replacement. And just overall value to the lineup. So there are hidden costs there. Either way, I think this Lopez deal will be a game changer!

[Jocko87]

4 hours ago, James said:

Or is this the type of move that the FO has been trying to make for a while and the now they have an owner that is on board?

Probably partially, as others mentioned Joe seems to be in it for the baseball rather than the business, and although he will still need to run a good business seeing the value of this move is probably much more obvious then to Jim as a busy billionaire doing other things.  The FO has been trying to do these type things but they were stuck in the dollar store. 

The change is palpable and while still working hard for good value they are now at least in the Dior outlet store.