Twins 2023 Position Analysis: Designated Hitter

[Nick Nelson]

The Twins don't seem to have anything approximating a primary designated hitter on their roster. That is very much by design.

Image courtesy of Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Projected Starter: Trevor Larnach
Likely Backup: Donovan Solano
Depth: Nick Gordon, José Miranda, Byron Buxton
Prospects: Edouard Julien, Aaron Sabato 

THE GOOD
As the Twins' roster began to crystallize in late January, I presented a question with no obvious answer: who starts on Opening Day at DH? Granted, that's only one game, but the decision hints at a larger question about Rocco Baldelli's generally preferred option versus right-handed pitchers in the absence of Luis Arraez.

The best answer I could come up with at the time was Larnach (if on the roster). He was a proven major-league bat and 26-year-old with no path to starting at any position on the field. He still kind of seems like the top candidate, thus his tentative listing as the projected "starter," but much has changed since then.

For one thing, Alex Kirilloff's status for the start of the season has grown more uncertain, if not doubtful. No Kirilloff at first base probably means Joey Gallo is spending a lot of time there against righties. That could open left field for Larnach, although he's still got to vie with Gordon and Michael A. Taylor.

The other development is Solano's signing at the outset of spring training. He's a 35-year-old known for his bat, and he mostly split time between first base and DH last year. Donnie Barrels is a natural fit for the job, and it wouldn't surprise me if he was the closest thing to a regular, should things go swimmingly elsewhere on the roster.

To some extent, talking about best fits and ideal options for the Twins at DH feels pointless. The reality is that the starter in the lineup will be dictated by the day and its circumstances. 

With the club signaling a very conservative and measured approach under new head trainer Nick Paparesta, it stands to reason we'll see plenty of Buxton, Carlos Correa and Jorge Polanco at designated hitter, even if if they're relatively healthy. Miranda might have been in line for a large share of starts here before spring shoulder issues set back his throwing.

Ironically, the healthier the Twins roster is, the MORE I would expect to see veteran mainstays appearing at DH. The front office didn't trade for Kyle Farmer and Taylor – both everyday players over the past couple years – to have them sit on the bench. Baldelli would be thrilled to take advantage of the DH spot by getting his best players off their feet routinely while keeping the top of his lineup intact and his defense sound. 

That's Plan A. We've learned better than to count on Plan A. Once the Twins start inevitably delving into their depth, we start to see the potential downside at this position.

THE BAD
The bar for offense at designated hitter is high, as you might expect given the title. Placing a mediocre bat there is an easy path to competitive disadvantage. That was never much of a concern when the Twins were trotting out Arraez or Nelson Cruz regularly, and it won't be a concern if they're rotating their best hitters most days as a matter of maintenance.

If those guys are unavailable, or playing in the field? Suddenly we're short on clear-cut premium bats. None of Solano, Larnach or Gordon are safe bets to be above-average hitters, much less Taylor or Farmer. That said, the balance of this bench does offer plenty of opportunity for platooning and optimization.

THE BOTTOM LINE
In 2022, the first post-Cruz season, Minnesota saw 10 different players make starts at designated hitter, and no one made more than 34. I would expect a similar distribution this year.  

If there's a dark horse candidate to lead the team in DH starts, it's Julien. His bat is way ahead of his glove at this point, but will be difficult to keep down in Triple-A should he keep raking the way he has at every single stop lately.

The lurking presence of Julien, along with a current stable of rotating quality bats that can provide a platoon advantage almost daily, should ensure DH is at least a moderate strength for the Twins.

Catch Up On Our Position Preview Series:

• Position Analysis: Catcher
• Position Analysis: First Base
• Position Analysis: Second Base
• Position Analysis: Third Base
• Position Analysis: Shortstop
• Position Analysis: Left Field
• Position Analysis: Center Field
• Position Analysis: Right Field

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[roger]

Wasn't going to comment, but seeing no one has wanted to get the conversation started.  Good recap, Nick.

My only question is:  What is the over/under for how many DH's the Twins will play during the 2023 season?  Will throw my guess into the ring, 11.

 

 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

20 minutes ago, roger said:

Wasn't going to comment, but seeing no one has wanted to get the conversation started.  Good recap, Nick.

My only question is:  What is the over/under for how many DH's the Twins will play during the 2023 season?  Will throw my guess into the ring, 11.

 

 

I guess 10 different players used at DH in 2023 by the Twinkies in major league games. 

[Datwinsdude]

If he does not end up playing a lot in left field I would like to see Larnach get two thirds of the DH at bats.  I think if we can keep his bat in the lineup this year he will put up some better than league average DH numbers.   

[terrydactyls]

7 minutes ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

I guess 10 different players used at DH in 2023 by the Twinkies in major league games. 

Major league games only?  So you aren't including games with Detroit or Kansas City?? ☹️

[Byrdman]

Buxton will be the primary DH at the start of the season.  He is not ready for everyday CF duties and will be eased in over the course of the year.  This is what the Athletic article said today. 

[specialiststeve]

Amazing that guys keep writing articles and continue to not discuss the obvious. Stop me if you have heard me say this but the smartest choice here is Polanco. Switch hitter with continual health issues. Keep a quality bat in the lineup on an everyday basis or get 90 games... this isn't rocket science. Polanco NEEDS to be plugged in and left there. Occasional game at 2B in case of an emergency but otherwise... plant his A** on the bench and let him DH. His bat is TO valuable. 

[chpettit19]

2 minutes ago, specialiststeve said:

Amazing that guys keep writing articles and continue to not discuss the obvious. Stop me if you have heard me say this but the smartest choice here is Polanco. Switch hitter with continual health issues. Keep a quality bat in the lineup on an everyday basis or get 90 games... this isn't rocket science. Polanco NEEDS to be plugged in and left there. Occasional game at 2B in case of an emergency but otherwise... plant is A** on the bench and let him DH. His bat is TO valuable. 

The problem is the same thing can be said about their center fielder. You can't DH both Polanco and Buxton and only play them in the field in the occasional emergency case. 

[tony&rodney]

Jorge Polanco is a definite concern. He has been the single most important bat for the Twins, especially from the left side. I wouldn't think that hitting would be so damaging to his knees. It sure isn't clear what the issue is with the current injury. Having had multiple knee surgeries myself, the full strength returns after the rehab. I can see that athletic movements at MLB speed are different but there has to be a way to keep Polanco's bat in the lineup. DH works.

One thing should be clear - the Twins need to score more runs this year and using the best bats available is key, whether through platooning or rotating players through the DH.

While I know Julien has zero at bats above AA and lacks experience or a clear position of expertise in the field, count me as one who wonders if he is that guy who just hits and hits wherever he suits up. I would rather see Julien against right handed pitchers than Solano. Depending on the injuries, I see Julien as an option for DH and 2B, but the Twins don't yet.

[JD-TWINS]

Interesting to see how this DH spot will be managed in ‘23 - my slant here….details below.

Seems IF Polanco & Kiriloff are both OK to go Opening Day, Larnach will be off the roster.

Taylor - Farmer - Solano - are all platoon options/starters v. LH pitching that add emergency depth, if absolutely necessary, v. RH pitching. Solano isn’t an everyday DH on this club.

If Larnach isn’t on the roster due to good health with other expected everyday starters, v. RH pitching, Kiriloff is at 1B - Gallo - Buxton - Kepler in OF - Gordon at DH………Larnach is the LH hitting DH if on the roster………I do see Buxton at DH for 50 games (30 plus in ‘22). When Buxton DH’s v. RH pitching Gordon plays CF. When Buxton rests v. RH pitching, Gordon plays CF.

Not sure why Miranda would have had a role at DH and you say his arm issues may reduce that opportunity? Seems maybe the opposite would be true.

Taylor & Buxton being in OF at same time doesn’t make sense since they are both all-star defenders in CF. Taylor starts in CF 40 games v. LH starters & Buxton is DH in those games. ……..(Gallo-Gordon-Kepler) OF v. RH starters for 40 games while Buxton DH’s 10 or so & rests the other 30 games.

v. LH starter Gallo-Taylor-Kepler in OF - Infield is Jeffers C - Farmer 3B - CC SS - Solano 2B - Miranda 1B - Buxton DH

Buxton - 50 games at DH

Gordon/Larnach combo - 50 games at DH

Miranda - 10 games at DH

Gallo - 20 games at DH

Polanco/Correa combo - 20 games

Solano - 10 games

That’s no AB’s at DH for Walner, Lewis, or Julien………gotta assume there will be an injury or three & things will change.

[JD-TWINS]

15 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Jorge Polanco is a definite concern. He has been the single most important bat for the Twins, especially from the left side. I wouldn't think that hitting would be so damaging to his knees. It sure isn't clear what the issue is with the current injury. Having had multiple knee surgeries myself, the full strength returns after the rehab. I can see that athletic movements at MLB speed are different but there has to be a way to keep Polanco's bat in the lineup. DH works.

One thing should be clear - the Twins need to score more runs this year and using the best bats available is key, whether through platooning or rotating players through the DH.

While I know Julien has zero at bats above AA and lacks experience or a clear position of expertise in the field, count me as one who wonders if he is that guy who just hits and hits wherever he suits up. I would rather see Julien against right handed pitchers than Solano. Depending on the injuries, I see Julien as an option for DH and 2B, but the Twins don't yet.

Have other LH bats ahead of him….if a couple guys are hurt, then Julien may get a shot! Solano isn’t, as you said, a viable bat against RH pitching.

[jmlease1]

54 minutes ago, specialiststeve said:

Amazing that guys keep writing articles and continue to not discuss the obvious. Stop me if you have heard me say this but the smartest choice here is Polanco. Switch hitter with continual health issues. Keep a quality bat in the lineup on an everyday basis or get 90 games... this isn't rocket science. Polanco NEEDS to be plugged in and left there. Occasional game at 2B in case of an emergency but otherwise... plant is A** on the bench and let him DH. His bat is TO valuable. 

Continual health issues? He was injured last season, but healthy enough the previous 3 to play in 94%, 92%, and 94% of the Twins games. In 7 seasons he's missed significant time twice (I'm skipping his 2 "cup of coffee" seasons, but he was plenty healthy those years in the minors). i think you've got a little recency bias going on here.

I like the twins plan for the DH spot: unless you have a Nelson Cruz who is a dominant hitter and has no defensive position, there's little gain to be had in slotting someone in there every day, and better chances of maximizing your lineup and roster if you move guys through there based on matchups, injuries, and rest needs.

[mikelink45]

I was curious why Sabato was listed instead of Wallner.

I do like a consistent DH.  I think it takes a while to adjust to DH and it is nice to have a regular lineup where everyone knows their roles. 

[Mike Sixel]

The bar for DH is much lower than many think......

I predict Larnach is the DH when Buxton isn't. But I'd prefer Larnach get a 1B glove and learn that position also......given AK's health so far. I'm not sure why Wallner isn't listed as a prospect, Larnach is likely a better OFer than him.....

If the Twins implode, it will be Julien, Wallner, Larnach (whomever isn't in the field) by the break.

[Minny505]

It's unusual, but would the Twins option Julien back to the MLB camp?

With Polanco and Kiriloff both looking doubtful for the opening day roster, Julien is looking like the most option to fill the vacated positions of 1B, 2B, & DH. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

3 hours ago, roger said:

Wasn't going to comment, but seeing no one has wanted to get the conversation started.  Good recap, Nick.

My only question is:  What is the over/under for how many DH's the Twins will play during the 2023 season?  Will throw my guess into the ring, 11.

 

 

Odds makers use a half so you can’t guess it exactly. The first two guessses were 11 and 10, so set the line at 10.5

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Just now, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Odds makers use a half so you can’t guess it exactly. The first two guessses were 11 and 10, so set the line at 10.5

I’ll bet the over.

[Thebigalguy]

The Buckster wants to be in CF and will get his way more often than not, barring pain. I like the idea of a rotating DH, though I don't entirely trust Baldelli to pull the strings. We're going to miss Arraez, that much I know, who regularly forced a SP to show what he had and stretched out his at bats for the good of the team. Of course, a DH as leadoff was unusual; I doubt we'll see much if any of that this year. The position is a work in progress. Your mention of Julien is very interesting, though; my guess is not yet, but thanks for the stack up of info about the options.

[Doctor Gast]

The one thing we have are a lot of bats. In response to Rogers challenge, with the focus on rest, I'm going to wager a guess of 12 or even 13 at DH.

Buxton, Polanco & Kiriloff will see the most the most games to begin the season. If both Kiriloff & Polanco is missing then we'll see more of Larnach & Gordon at DH against RHPs.

[Tyler from Oregon]

Have to assume we see a lot of Larnach and Gordon against Righties. I have just been so unimpressed with Solano so far this Spring, but I'm trying to remind myself that his career numbers are very solid and that he's just ramping up. If he's able to stick around his career numbers, it makes sense that he's in the mix as well.

Also, it seems almost certain that Buxton, Polanco and Kirilloff will end up being the three with the most time at DH, throughout the season, in an effort to keep them as healthy as possible.

[D.C Twins]

"The bar for offense at designated hitter is high, as you might expect given the title. Placing a mediocre bat there is an easy path to competitive disadvantage."

This!

[miller761]

Very concerned about Polanco. Saw him in Fort Myers with a slight limp not taking part in infield practice. Does Royce Lewis play 2nd base? Is he the long term fallback option there?