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  • Twins 2023 Position Analysis: Shortstop


    Nick Nelson

    Two big-market teams stopped short of signing the superstar shortstop during the offseason, so Carlos Correa landed back with the Twins. 

    His unexpected return instantly flips Minnesota back into one of the league's strongest teams at one of the game's most important positions.

    Image courtesy of Jonah Hinebaugh/Naples Daily News / USA TODAY NETWORK

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    Projected Starter: Carlos Correa
    Likely Backup: Kyle Farmer
    Depth: Nick Gordon, Willi Castro
    Prospects: Brooks Lee, Royce Lewis, Noah Miller

    THE GOOD
    Every projected starter in the Twins infield has been saddled with limitations this spring. All of them, that is, except for the guy whose injury concerns cost him $150 million during the offseason. 

    Correa, currently away from the team for the birth of his new baby boy Kenzo, has looked healthy and unhindered in Twins camp. The ankle issue that cratered contract agreements with the Giants and Mets was always considered more of a long-term concern, but nonetheless it's good to see Correa out running around in games after all the hoopla. 

    Even aside from the health thing, whatever weight you want to assign it, we should objectively expect the 2023 season to be the best of any in Correa's new long-term contract – merely because he's as young as he'll ever be. At 28, the shortstop is still in his physical prime, and hasn't shown many signs of slowing down on the field.

    The Twins would be perfectly content with a repeat of his '22 campaign, in which Correa slashed .291/.366/.467 with 22 homers and was worth 4.4 fWAR. But we know he's got another gear, and saw it truly emerge in the second half, when Correa found his groove and posted an .866 OPS, mixing in many clutch moments that were amiss in the early months.

    Fast forward to this year: Correa is familiar and comfortable with his new surroundings, settled in for the long haul. If we see the late-season version of C4 from Day 1, he'll be an MVP contender, as he was in 2021. 

    The organizational depth chart behind Correa is quite loaded. I hesitate to call it an embarrassment of riches, but the Twins boast a lot of shortstop talent, and that's a very good place to be. Correa's backup, Farmer, has started more than 200 MLB games at short over the past two seasons. The utilityman Gordon came up as a shortstop, and has played 31 games there for the Twins.

    Beyond those two, four of the system's top 20 prospects – Lee, Lewis, Austin Martin, Miller – have played shortstop exclusively in the minors. The Twins are obviously hoping Correa sticks at the six-spot for quite a while, but there's no shortage of current or future replacements in the wings.

    THE BAD
    There are a few things to note regarding Correa and his future at shortstop. The first is that his defensive metrics dropped off a cliff last year, following a long and very stable run of excellence. It's difficult to know what to make of this, but the stark contrast against all previous seasons is too much to ignore.

    Even if you think his nosedive in Outs Above Average, Defensive Runs Saved, and other fielding stats last year was noise, there's reason to believe Correa's biggest strength (his arm) could be neutralized by rule changes that prevent infielders from touching the outfield grass. Playing deep was a big part of the cannon-armed shortstop's edge.

    The other thing to keep in mind is that the Mets were ready to sign Correa as a third baseman and he was ready to accept the assignment. The idea of life at a new position has already been implanted.

    He's staying at shortstop with the Twins, but it now feels like an ephemeral arrangement. If the ankle starts barking at some point, or last year's defensive stat trend presages things to come, Correa will likely move off short. That eventuality seems implied in the structure of a contract with steeply declining salaries in the latter years. 

    THE BOTTOM LINE
    The Twins have one of the premier shortstops in the game, and he's locked in for the long haul. There are a few different factors that make it reasonable to wonder just how long Correa will stick at short, despite his being only 28 years old and one season removed from a Platinum Glove, but that eventual scenario doesn't instill much dread at the moment.

    This is the strongest position in the Twins organization, featuring arguably their best player and inarguably their biggest concentration of top prospects. Not all of those young talents will stick, of course, but several have a real chance. 

    If Correa puts together a season that convinces the Minnesota brass his tenure at shortstop is nowhere near done, those prospects could easily become the club's most valuable trading collateral for buy moves at the deadline.

    Catch Up On Our Position Preview Series:

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    While I'm fine with banning the shift (it's a little silly IMHO, but if it increases offense while reducing the whining then whatever) but I don't care for the "infielders must have their feet on the dirt" bit. Trading bloop hits to the OF for slow rollers in the infield seems like a wash to me. Let guys stand where they want if they're on the correct side of the base.

    It's really nice to not have to worry about SS in the near term. We've churned so many guys through at the spot in the last 20 years that it's great to have Correa locked in as the guy for a while.

    I expect the Twins will continue to draft "shortstops" every year and keep the flow of middle infielders flowing in the system. Hopefully one or more of them will be legit options defensively if and when Correa needs to slide down the defensive spectrum (with his arm, he'll be a fine 3B if it becomes necessary). I'm interested to see if Noah Miller will hit enough to make it, because so far he seems to be a legit defender there.

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    C4 is an amazing SS and an encouraging mentor and co-team leader with Buck.  The FO had a successfully productive off season, which I would rank as the best ever off season for the Twins. I understand the defensive improvements that most of the acquisitions bring, including Gallo. C4, Farmer, Vazquez, and Taylor. These defensive improvements will help the pitchers.  Now if Coach Popkins can help Gallo and others like he helped Correa last season, the Twins will have a strong hitting team. Buck, Correa, Miranda, Gallo, Polo, and hopefully Kirilloff are all capable of carrying a team offensively. Even though there were only a few additions to the pitching staff, trading for Lopez and getting Maeda back, are huge improvements. As far as the BP goes, Duran, Jax, Lopez, Duran, Theilbar, Moran and Duran appear to be solid. I look for Ryan to shine. The pitching is as good overall, from 1 to 13, as I have seen for the Twins.  It's going to be a long season, but day by day, game by game, the Twins will build a successful season in 2023.  Play ball! 

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    I'm in favor of the shift ban where the SS & 2B stays on their side of the field. Where they play on their side should not matter. Yet IMO the shift ban will give Correa an opportunity to showcase his talents where the shift had handcuffed him.

    I hope if Correa sticks at SS, it won't jeopardize our other valuable SS candidates to become trade bait. I don't consider Gordon or Martin as SS depth but Lewis & Lee; I do. SS depth is so important so I wouldn't trade any of them because they can excel at 3B & 2B (but not that's not to say we have other high valued players that we can) permitting their stock to rise . Miller is a ways away so we can cross that bridge when we come to it, not before.

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    I'm not worried about Correa's defense at this time. Even if he does slip a little, I'll take very good to great but not platinum level. And we all know the bat is excellent, as are all the other intangibles he brings. 

    I like the limited shifts for various reasons. But I do think forcing the 2B and SS to keep their heels on the dirt ridiculous. That's not going "old school", that's over compensating where it's not necessary.

    I liked the trade for Farmer when it was made, and like it just as much now, as a backup SS as well as a really nice utility player. Gordon as a rostered #3 is fine. How often would he ever need to play the spot? I suppose Solano should be considered as an "emergency" option along with Gordon.

    IMO, Lewis and Lee aren't going anywhere. They are a combination of the near future at 3B/2B, and even OF in the case of Lewis. But they can also be the backup SS as early as 2024. Second half of 2023 in Lewis's case, potentially. But I like having control of Farmer through 2024.

    Personally, I dismiss Martin at SS. I understand playing there as much as he has in order to use his time there to help keep him in the mix at 2B/3B, which he did a ton in college. I mean, if you can play SS at all, it only adds experience at playing the other 2 spots. But his future is in the OF, with the ability to help cover some in the INF.

    But there is a TON of talent at SS that should be the envy of most all teams, even though some will be moving to other positions on a full time basis.

    I don't have a ton of faith that Castro's ST hitting performance is some new and improved version. But he's talented, athletic,  switch hitter, speedy, and only 26yo. If he sees a lot of action for the Twins...perhaps any action...it means he really has developed with his new team, or a rash of injuries have decimated the team again. But he MIGHT be a late bloomer who could figure in a potential bench role in 2024.

    I like that there are a handful of interesting SS options in A and rookie ball that could figure in to the future a few years from now. That might be where a potential replacement for Correa might be found.

    The Twins are in a great position at SS!

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    Should the twins draft a SS in this June's draft, if the Twins feel he is the best available player? Or should the Twins  draft the best pitcher available? The reason I am putting this question in this set of posts is because many of us have posted here about the wealth of SS's and SS prospects which the Twins have.

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    40 minutes ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

    Should the twins draft a SS in this June's draft, if the Twins feel he is the best available player? Or should the Twins  draft the best pitcher available? The reason I am putting this question in this set of posts is because many of us have posted here about the wealth of SS's and SS prospects which the Twins have.

    Still very early but it doesn’t look like a shortstop profiles at the #5 pick and I’d prefer taking a swing at one of the potential aces in that spot anyway. Lots of mocks have the outfielder from Florida which would be fine, just make sure it’s an impact player. 
     

    After that pick, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them take a few more college shortstop types in the top 10 rounds. They seem to be stocking up on trade chips and everyone wants up the middle talent. Try to coach them up and keep the best ones for us. Simple, right? 

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    1 hour ago, DocBauer said:

    But I do think forcing the 2B and SS to keep their heels on the dirt ridiculous. That's not going "old school", that's over compensating where it's not necessary.

    Couldn’t agree more. It’s a clown show of panic and desperation.

    The logic…let’s reward a league full of players who hit 220 because of their complete and total commitment to swings optimized for power…let’s let them continue with that one tool in the toolbox approach, but artificially lift their batting averages to 230, in the name of a couple of extra baserunners 95% of whom won’t even think of attempting to run.

    It’s interesting to note that all these rule changes go in this year, and what does Nick Gordon show up talking about for 2023? Thin, fast, slap-hitting Nick Gordon…does he show up taking about putting more balls in play or being more aggressive on the base baths? No. He shows up announcing to the world that he’s stronger and going to hit more home runs. These shift and base running rules are not going to change anything…in fact they’ll be counterproductive…as long as number 9 hitters are developed to, and capable of, hitting 20+ homeruns a year. They’re just not.

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    28 minutes ago, jkcarew said:

    Couldn’t agree more. It’s a clown show of panic and desperation.

    The logic…let’s reward a league full of players who hit 220 because of their complete and total commitment to swings optimized for power…let’s let them continue with that one tool in the toolbox approach, but artificially lift their batting averages to 230, in the name of a couple of extra baserunners 95% of whom won’t even think of attempting to run.

    It’s interesting to note that all these rule changes go in this year, and what does Nick Gordon show up talking about for 2023? Thin, fast, slap-hitting Nick Gordon…does he show up taking about putting more balls in play or being more aggressive on the base baths? No. He shows up announcing to the world that he’s stronger and going to hit more home runs. These shift and base running rules are not going to change anything…in fact they’ll be counterproductive…as long as number 9 hitters are developed to, and capable of, hitting 20+ homeruns a year. They’re just not.

    Until teams come to the conclusion that a recent Joey Gallo year is preferable to a typical year from, say Greg Gagne, we will  get more Gallo types as opposed to well-rounded players.

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    The eyeball test doesn't match up with the advanced metrics for Correa.  Elite defense?  Maybe not, but far better than average.

    The new shift rules will tell us if he's closer to the platinum glove or to what the metrics said about last year.  Almost positive that it will be the former not the latter.

    I worry MUCH more about 2B defense being exposed, especially if Polanco isn't 100% physically...

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    2 hours ago, Bodie said:

    The eyeball test doesn't match up with the advanced metrics for Correa.  Elite defense?  Maybe not, but far better than average.

    The new shift rules will tell us if he's closer to the platinum glove or to what the metrics said about last year.  Almost positive that it will be the former not the latter.

    I worry MUCH more about 2B defense being exposed, especially if Polanco isn't 100% physically...

    I agree wholeheartedly with this assessment. Defense metrics have been oddly misdirected by shifts, since the stats aren’t clear as to positioning both of the SS and other infielders.

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