Can Edouard Julien Hit Enough to Stick at Second?

[Greggory Masterson]

Ben Franklin, a Founding Father of sabermetrics, once said, “A run saved is a run earned.” No disrespect meant to our greatest president, but a run earned is also a run earned.

Image courtesy of © Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

As we each race to be the first person to put the cart before the horse of 2023 Spring Training Flavor of the Week Edouard Julien, it’s worth taking a minute to consider where the lad will play. He’s not renowned for his defensive chops, but he may be able to hit well enough to stick at second base.

“Gregg, you lout!” you might be saying, “You messed up the phrase; it’s ‘defends well enough to stick at second base.’” Allow me to explain.

Many are familiar with the concept of the defensive spectrum. shortstop, catcher, and centerfield are the most demanding positions, whereas first base, left field, and designated hitter are the easiest. Most players are moved down the spectrum as they are proved incapable of being one of the best defenders in the world at each position. There’s no shame in it.

However, the further one moves down the spectrum, the more their value is derived from their ability to hit. Andrelton Simmons made an 11-year career out of a bat 13% below league average. He wouldn’t have even been drafted if all he could play was first base.

Teams will give players as many chances as possible before sliding them down the spectrum, so Julien played exclusively at second base in 2022 at AA Wichita. The Twins are in luck if his big bat can stick at second. Playing Julien at second (or third, for that matter) frees up playing time for even less gifted defenders who can only play first base or designated hitter.

You don’t have to believe in the value of WAR as a statistic to agree with a basic premise: a player should create more offensive runs than they give up defensively. If the bat is good enough, teams can deal with suboptimal defense.

Two prime examples of this working out are the cases of Gary Sheffield and Derek Jeter. Sheffield played shortstop, third base, left field, and right field during his career, and he was awful at each spot. Sheffield was an approximate 80 WAR hitter for his career but lost approximately 20 WAR because of his defense. Still, he hit well enough to have a strong Hall of Fame case.

Most people are also familiar with Derek Jeter’s defensive woes. The Captain—never moved off short—is regarded as a poor defender due to his lack of range, despite his Gold Gloves and propensity for highlight plays. It wasn’t the end of the world for either player because their bats more than made up for their defensive ineptitude.

Julien isn’t on a fast track to the Hall, but if he hits enough, he can make it work at second base despite his lack of range and arm. Scouting reports are not kind to the young Canadian, as FanGraphs and MLB rate his defense as a 30 and a 40 on the 20-80 rating scale, respectively.

The Twins themselves have dealt with bat-first infielders in recent years. Jorge Polanco certainly made it work. Despite his defensive struggles, he was named to the 2019 All-Star team as the starting shortstop.

He hit 20% higher than the league average that year, with a slash line of .295/.356/.485 and 22 home runs. Even after his move to second base, where he is still a slightly below-average fielder, he hits enough to be consistently rated in the top 10 second basemen in MLB.

Luis Arraez, often the first comparison drawn for Julien, given his positional “flexibility” and high on-base skills, was moved to first base out of necessity. Arraez has been an average-to-below-average second baseman, but he can be an option there because of his excellent on-base skills.

In 2022, he was named an All-Star with a .338 batting average at the break. Although he struggled down the stretch with nagging injuries, he still hit 30% above league average for 2022 and was an above-average big league regular throughout the year.

However, Julien’s defense appears worse than Polanco’s and Arraez’s. Although he shouldn’t at this time be expected to make an All-Star game in his career, he probably needs to hit somewhere in the same ballpark as Polanco and Arraez to overcome the additional runs he would give up as an everyday second baseman.

Two other fun examples are worth mentioning. Daniel Murphy could affectionately be called a first baseman playing second base. Through his first seven years in the league, he hit about 10% better than the league average, and although he gave up many runs with his poor defense, he was still a solid regular.

Then, in 2016, he hit a blistering .347/.390/.595 with 25 home runs and a league-leading 47 doubles. His defense was no longer a consideration. When you win the Silver Slugger, how you field doesn’t matter much. Eventually, he did move to first base, though Father Time was also catching up to him, and he couldn’t produce enough to be a Major League first baseman.

Alfonso Soriano, another slugging second baseman, won the Silver Slugger three times in his five years as an everyday second baseman. He also led the league in errors at second base all five years before being moved to left field.

All things considered, errors aren’t the most reliable statistic, but leading the league in them at your position is not a good thing. Still, Soriano was an All-Star four times during that stretch, hitting approximately 20% higher than the league average.

If Julien comes up and tears the cover off the ball as he has at every level of the Minor Leagues, playing poor defense might not be the end of the world. However, his defense probably can’t be horrible without him being a Silver Slugger candidate to justify sticking at second base.

If he can improve defensively to merely below average, a solid bat might be enough for him to play there. He could also hit enough to justify bouncing between second, third, left, and first based on need, similar to early-career Arraez.

Also, Chuck Knoblauch.

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[stringer bell]

There are a lot of infield prospects due to break through, along with Miranda and Correa. Is there room for Julien if Lee and Lewis establish themselves as players, with Salas not far behind? I'd prefer to have players that can help win games on offense and defense and having Miranda and Julien at two infield spots doesn't sound like a good defensive infield. That said, there aren't any guarantees. We can't be sure the prospects deliver and we can't be totally sure that Julien will continue to be an outstanding offensive player. First base and DH may be manned by either or both of Miranda and Julien in coming years.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

As fans we almost always get excessively excited by prospects who show promise in the minors.  Sometimes, we get lucky and it all works out, but just as often, we are left to wonder about what might have been if something had just worked out a little bit differently.  Being a prospect is an uncertain thing!

In Julien’s case, he had a good year and a tremendous AFL season, so we are all assuming that he could just show up at Target Field and rake.  I really hope that is true, but I recall a couple of years ago we were all chomping at the bit for Kiriloff and Larnach to become big league power guys and fixtures in the lineup for years. . . still waiting on that.  It might still happen, but I think our expectations have been tempered a great deal.  

All this is to say, relax about projecting the minor league guys into the majors and stop asking where we are going to put Lewis, Lee, Julien, et al,  worrying that there won’t be enough spots for all of the star power.  Give them more time to develop and we’ll see what it looks like then.  Maybe they force their way into the lineup and never leave like Justin Morneau (although his second year wasn’t that great).  Maybe something derails their path along the way, like has happened to Lewis (twice!),  Balazovic (he could still make it), Kubel, and so many others.  Let’s just hope they continue to develop and show up when they are ready to stay on the big club.

Let’s get this season started!

 

[CRF]

If he can hit the way everyone seems to think he can...they're gonna have to find a spot for him. Who's to say his defense won't improve, if he works at it. 

[roger]

It is not a given that he will be bad defensively.  The kid is young with what, two years pro experience?  With experience his D will improve.  We will have to wait to see how much.

[specialiststeve]

Put him at 2B and 1B in AAA .... see  if he can hold his own.. There will be opportunities. He has to show he has a spot.... and he can hit AAA pitching... we shall see. 

[JD-TWINS]

Can’t imagine him playing 2B …….we have Lee/Lewis/Martin……….team options on Polanco through ‘25. If Jorge can’t stay healthy or if his power is gone I could see them letting him go. However, if the guy is a Top 10 - 2B in the game with offense/defense combined, I’m not in a hurry to move a $10 million contract ………switch hitting veteran with 25 HR power!

Still, we try to find a spot for Julien!

Larnach - Walner - Rodriquez - Julien - Martin - Lewis - Lee - Kiriloff - Miranda - Gordon …….sorry to say, we can’t play all these guys because they aren’t all going to pan out due to health or ability to hit. If they do all hit we have 4 possible 3B…….6 possible OF……..4 possible 2B……4 possible 1B……good problems!!

Buxton - CC - Vázquez - Jeffers are all on the roster for 3 years minimum, that leaves 9 other spots in ‘24 & ‘25.

If they all become good to better MLB hitters then we have the best Farm System ever! Ever!!

I think they should all have success in their careers but that’s not very realistic.

Let’s see Julien & Lee have some success at AAA before worrying about where they’ll have a spot on big club. Lewis still has to get healthy. 1 or 2 steps at a time!

[DocBauer]

Just a couple leadoff comments. And yes, pun mostly intended. 

1] No disrespect to Canadian baseball, or the really good baseball talent that actually has thrived at the ML level, but I think that it's fair to speculate facilities, coaching, and general interest is probably behind hockey, hockey, football, and perhaps on equal footing with curling. Nevertheless, baseball talent has come out of Canada, though I dare so it's not a hotbed of opportunity.

2] Julien came to the US to play for Auburn. He played two years of college baseball before being drafted. He signed too late to see any action in 2019. Oh, and then he couldn't play at all in 2020. So after 2 years is college, then a missed year, he debuted in 2021 and looked really good. He looked even better in 2022 before being the best player in the AFL, being cheated out of the MVP award.

There is a pattern here that says this kid is very talented, and only getting better.

He's young enough, seemingly athletic enough...and with 2 good knees I'd suspect, (for those Arraez comps)...that with time, coaching and work, why can't he be at least a solid, average 2B? I mean, it's up to him to put the work in. But I find it somewhat baffling that it seems to be so easily accepted that he'll just be awful to below average at this point considering his experience, or lack thereof. 

Yes, it's very true he doesn't have to be great with the glove to be worthy of regular playing time with the potential of his bat. And he wouldn't be the first. And I have my doubt that he will ever be the Twins starting 2B. But why can't he be a solid 2B and/or 1B as well as a DH? Now, I would LOVE for him to also be able to play just an average, acceptable LF just to increase his versatility, but I'm more than willing to accept him as an average 2B/1B/DH with that bat. We don't need him to play SS or CF for goodness sake. 

The bat should play, and very soon. But 2 years of college, a missed year, and only 2 milb seasons, I'm just not dismissing his chance to be at least average with the glove going forward

[Tiantwindup]

President Franklin?

[Major League Ready]

The decision to concentrate on 2B last year would suggest the Twin's believe he can improve enough a 2B to hold down the position.  It will be very interesting to see if they stick with a 2B focus or start moving him around.

IDK if it will be Julien taking over for Polanco, but I would bet even money Polanco is traded by the deadline next year.  I really like Polanco but one of the prospects will offer equivalent value (net defense/offense) for a longer period of time for less money.  It's possible one of them will be even better than Polanco.  Equivalent player + $11M AAV (2024-25) to spend elsewhere and a good trade return is an equation to get better and stay that way longer.

[old nurse]

3 hours ago, Tiantwindup said:

President Franklin?

Greatest college president ever.  

[Fatbat]

There is always a place in MLB for a big bat. He seems like the type of guy that will stick and rake when he gets the call up. 

[Greggory Masterson]

3 hours ago, Tiantwindup said:

President Franklin?

Yes, and one of Bill James’s closest confidants

[miracleb]

First base and DH are the two easiest spots to fill.  They also are historically fill by bigger guys with bigger bats.  That is why trading Arraez was easy if the Twins felt he couldn't hold up at 2nd base but wanted to get his bat into the line-up.  His "numbers" as a 2nd baseman were awesome.......not so much at 1st base (compared to the production of other 1st basemen or DH's.)  Moving Julien, Arraez, etc., to 1st base or DH means sitting a "big bat."

(Of course....the Twins need to develop a big bat because Nelson Cruz(s) and Jim Thome(s) don't grow on trees either!)

[wabene]

12 hours ago, DocBauer said:

But I find it somewhat baffling that it seems to be so easily accepted that he'll just be awful to below average at this point considering his experience, or lack thereof

I agree with this wholeheartedly. The guy is 6'2" and fit. Looks like an athlete to me. I'm gonna let this play out. 

[Trov]

The whole article is much of what I have stated for years.  You can deal with poor defense if your offense is good, and you can deal with poor offense if your defense is good enough.  Rarely will you ever get elite at both, and the ones that are are very highly valued.  I am more of a fan of better defense and pitching and would prefer average hitting, over elite hitting and below average defense.  Mainly because great pitching and defense can stifle great hitting normally.  

However, I would agree if Julien can hit at high enough level we could live with him at 2nd, if he needed to.  However, will we need him to?  We have no set 1B in our system.  AK will most likely fill that roll, as long as his wrist can hold up, but I am at the point, I am assuming he will never reach his potential because of the wrist, I hope I am wrong.  If he cannot fill in 1B, then really that is wide open for whoever can hit at MLB level. 

I would also point, if you can upgrade the overall team by pushing Julien to 1B, because you can have similar hitter, but better defender at 2b you should do that.  

[MTV]

Lee/Correa/Lewis/Kirilloff (left to right) look to be the infield 4 for a while, Miranda looks best suited for DH while Julien might get shut down to the bench, which doesn’t sound all to bad: with injuries and an ability to play multiple positions, Julien can shift around 1B/2B/DH for a good portion of the year or if anyone goes down.
 

Another contingency with Julien: he can’t hit lefties. He had a .649 OPS against lefties last year in Wichita, which basically reduces him to a platoon-only role. Still, he provides necessary infield depth that’ll be vital to the twins for the future.

[jkcarew]

10 hours ago, Greggory Masterson said:

Yes, and one of Bill James’s closest confidants

I feel like you need to acknowledge that Franklin…while he may somehow have a cosmic connection to Bill James…was never the POTUS. 

[Greggory Masterson]

24 minutes ago, jkcarew said:

I feel like you need to acknowledge that Franklin…while he may somehow have a cosmic connection to Bill James…was never the POTUS. 

I refuse to do so

[tony&rodney]

Did everyone like the swing Julien put on the first pitch he saw? What a game for the young fella.

[jorgenswest]

This spring the better question might be “Can Edouard Julien hit enough to stick at DH?”

If the answer is yes he should make the roster. 

[nicksaviking]

Like everyone else, I'd like to try to put offensive + players at the most demanding position they can handle, which does sound like 2B.

But at the moment, the Twins biggest holes DO seem to be the least demanding positions, LF and 1B. If his bat has a shot to win an opening day spot, I wouldn't be opposed to moving him to one of those positions for the time being.