Twins' Spring Training Roster Projection, Two Weeks In

[John Bonnes]

Here’s the thing about being a sports reporter: you’re looking for some drama. So spring training is a trap.

Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

It encourages us to give into our inherent bias and forget the things that really matter. There isn’t a lot of drama in “this guy is on the 40-man roster” and “this guy doesn’t have options.” But those are the things that matter, not giving up a grand slam on March third. (We’ll get back to that.)

So your best bet for deciphering a roster battle is to start with your assumptions before spring training started, when you were soberly and objectively evaluating the probable 26-man roster. And when I did that (call it version 0.0), here’s what it looked like.

(Green means pretty much locked in. Yellow means I think I know? Red means I don’t know.)

C	Vazquez		SP	Gray
1B	Kirilloff		SP	P Lopez
2B	Polanco		SP	Mahle
3B	Miranda		SP	Maeda
SS	Correa		SP	Ryan
LF	Gallo
CF	Buxton		CL	Duran
RF	Kepler		RP	J Lopez
DH	Larnach		RP	Jax
			RP	Thielbar
Bench C	Jeffers		RP	Pagan
Bench OF	Taylor		RP	Alcala
Bench IF	Farmer		RP	Moran
Bench	Gordon		RP	Megill

Let’s walk through the changes that are and are not happening, in order of greatest impact.

Donovan Solano is knocking out one of the position players.
When the Twins signed Donovan Solano a major league contract two weeks ago, it likely meant one of the position players who has options was doomed. There aren’t that many: Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, and Ryan Jeffers. Jeffers is a catcher, so he’s safe. We haven’t seen Kirilloff in a game yet, but he’s supposedly on track to return early.

Trevor Larnach was scratched from the lineup with a lower body injury last week but is supposed to play left field on Tuesday. But if everyone is healthy he would probably be the odd man out. So we’ll leave him off the roster, and put Kirilloff in yellow to reflect the dual challenges of getting healthy and beating out both Larnach for the last spot.

Long relief appears to be a priority.
It’s one thing for Twins manager Rocco Baldelli to say he wants to have a long reliever available for most games this season. It’s another to see the organization align to make that wish a reality. We’re seeing the latter.

Both Baldelli and Derek Falvey have discussed a group of pitcher that could be available in long relief. This is different than designating a long reliever, like the Twins tried to do with Randy Dobnak two years ago. This means having a pool of arms available so if the long reliever  throws 50-70 pitches – or maybe even 30-50 - they can be swapped out with a different option from St Paul for the next game.

This gets around a couple of challenges to the strategy. It allows a long reliever to pitch in back-to-back games if necessary. And it limits the impact of last year’s new MLB rule limiting each pitcher to just five back-and-forths to the minors. With more arms you have more options.

And the Twins have more arms. Cole Sands and Brent Headrick probably have the inside track because they are on the 40-man roster. Old friends Randy Dobnak and Aaron Sanchez might also be options, though that would require a further roster move. Josh Winder and Ronny Henriquez have also been mentioned by Falvey as options, though both are dealing with potential arm health issues in camp.

So we’ll adjust the roster by giving one spot to a long reliever, which crowds the other three guys into two spots. I’m also going to break my rule about overreacting to game performances, and add Emilio Pagan to that group, just because the grand slam he gave up on Thursday gave me a little PTSD.

Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but there might be some injuries
It’s early in camp, so I’m not going to adjust the any of the statuses, but we’re all keeping an eye on when we next see Kirilloff, Jorge Polanco, Byron Buxton, and Nick Gordon in a game. There is no indication that they won’t all be ready by Opening Day, so, again, no changes to the chart. But baseball is a “show me” game, and the color on those spots could change in a couple more weeks if we’re not shown something soon. If any of them don’t happen, Larnach might be back on the roster.

So here’s the new chart.

C	Vazquez		SP	Gray
1B	Kirilloff		SP	P Lopez
2B	Polanco		SP	Mahle
3B	Miranda		SP	Maeda
SS	Correa		SP	Ryan
LF	Gallo
CF	Buxton		CL	Duran
RF	Kepler		RP	J Lopez
DH	Solano		RP	Jax
			RP	Thielbar
Bench C	Jeffers		RP	Pagan/Moran
Bench OF	Taylor		RP	Moran/Alcala
Bench IF	Farmer		RP	Alcala/Megill
Bench	Gordon		LR	Sands/Headrick

We'll have plenty more chances to overreact before I attack this again. Any new injury is that much closer to Opening Day, as is every game in which one of the regulars doesn't appear. We'll may see some big or clutch performances by Twins players playing in the World Baseball Classis, and their absence will absolutely create opportunities for other players trying to wedge their way onto the roster. 

So if you're disappointed that there isn't more change, stay tuned. The temptation to overreact and embrace drama only gets more heated going forward. 

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[miracleb]

Injury or earning it...Ober will be one of the top 5 starters......

[jjswol]

1 hour ago, miracleb said:

Injury or earning it...Ober will be one of the top 5 starters......

Assuming of course he himself can stay off the injured list.

[Dave The Dastardly]

No Twins Pipeline Pitchers among the starters? Say it ain't so!

[stringer bell]

While it is fun to predict the roster, the reality is that composition of the roster will change through the season. 
 

I’m pretty sure Polanco and Buxton will be on the roster and in the Opening Day lineup. I’m not so sure that Kirilloff will be ready. I think about three of the bullpen spots could be classified at TBD. 

[tony&rodney]

Spring training is for the players to build towards Opening Day. The lists are pretty much the team with the last spots decided in the final week of March. Only injuries will cause any surprises on the roster that is announced in Kansas City and it is a long season where there will be plenty of opportunities for individual players to push for MLB positions. No worries.

[nicksaviking]

It's certainly a reasonable roster, but I'm still pretty disappointed in all the spots given to lackluster vets instead of the hungry, more talented young players. Solano, Taylor, Farmer and Kepler? Ugh, it should have been two of those guys tops with the higher ceiling young guys fighting each other for the last two spots.

[JD-TWINS]

Agreed - your New Chart looks about as close as one could come!

Larnach needs to play & hit .500 this spring to even get a thought for opening day - still don’t see it w/o an injury to an outfielder.

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, Dave The Dastardly said:

No Twins Pipeline Pitchers among the starters? Say it ain't so!

Which veteran should not start?

[MABB1959]

I know it has been a couple of years, but I am still angry about letting Berrios go.  We knew he didn't want to stay and last year wasn't his best, although he did pitch a good number of innings.  They did not want him to just walk away so they decided to trade (makes sense).  BUT did they get anything for him.  Starting to look like a bust.   Austin Martin already on the 60 day and SWR hasn't had a good start in spring training.  I know the spring training is not really something you can base much on but SWR has a 9.00 ERA so far.  It is only 3 innings but still!

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

33 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

It's certainly a reasonable roster, but I'm still pretty disappointed in all the spots given to lackluster vets instead of the hungry, more talented young players. Solano, Taylor, Farmer and Kepler? Ugh, it should have been two of those guys tops with the higher ceiling young guys fighting each other for the last two spots.

Depth and injury protection. ... They either over reacted to last year, or are right in thinking kids of injury will occur again. If they use the youth, they have no backups. That's my theory.

[Schmoeman5]

I'm not sure how Kiriloff CAN be on the opening day roster. He is progressing as spring training rolls along getting more reps. But are the Twins going to put him at 1st base to start the season despite the fact he hasn't faced live pitching in a game scenario since last summer? Idk, maybe. But I would bet he'll start at SP. They pushed him last year and we all saw how that worked

[aberamsey]

43 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

It's certainly a reasonable roster, but I'm still pretty disappointed in all the spots given to lackluster vets instead of the hungry, more talented young players. Solano, Taylor, Farmer and Kepler? Ugh, it should have been two of those guys tops with the higher ceiling young guys fighting each other for the last two spots.

I don't get this mindset at all and last season is the prime example. Those "hungry, more talented players" all got hurt and the team had zero depth to finish the season as a result. The Twins have a centerfielder that plays 100-110 games tops. They can't have another season with a Celestino-type replacing him. Taylor gives them gold club caliber defense. Solano and Farmer are proven major leaguers that can play multiple positions. In the case of Solano, he absolutely mashes left-handers, something the Twins need badly. Who if the "hungry and more talented" young players mashes lefties? Lee, eventually. Julien? Maybe. I get the sentiment on Kepler, but he's an outstanding defender and with the new shift rules he at least warrants a look. 

[Giles Ferrell]

Quote

But those are the things that matter, not giving up a grand slam on March third.

I feel attacked. 🤣

[Dave The Dastardly]

34 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Which veteran should not start?

My point being the Twins FO, which proclaimed it was going to establish a pipeline of team-produced talent, has apparently been unable to do so. Unless I'm mistaken, all the SPs listed were acquired via trade. Ipso facto; the pipeline is either plugged, or it leaks like a sieve.

[Fatbat]

2 hours ago, Dave The Dastardly said:

No Twins Pipeline Pitchers among the starters? Say it ain't so!

…and no 10year vet retreads trying to imitate Lazarus.

[nicksaviking]

53 minutes ago, aberamsey said:

I don't get this mindset at all and last season is the prime example. Those "hungry, more talented players" all got hurt and the team had zero depth to finish the season as a result. The Twins have a centerfielder that plays 100-110 games tops. They can't have another season with a Celestino-type replacing him. Taylor gives them gold club caliber defense. Solano and Farmer are proven major leaguers that can play multiple positions. In the case of Solano, he absolutely mashes left-handers, something the Twins need badly. Who if the "hungry and more talented" young players mashes lefties? Lee, eventually. Julien? Maybe. I get the sentiment on Kepler, but he's an outstanding defender and with the new shift rules he at least warrants a look. 

Taylor and Kepler are just such bad offensive players. Defense wasn't an issue last year, yet they really seemed to emphasize it more this off season despite the fact that the offense WAS a problem last year. Free agency wasn't good for bats, so there was little to do about it on that front, instead they should have gone for the upside in the young players they already had. They won't all work out, but there are enough of them to cycle through until you find the right ones. In any case we have a long enough track record to see that Taylor and Kepler almost certainly don't have MLB caliber bats. Why even trade for Taylor? Why not trade for an outfielder who could actually hit, that was way more important.

I like Farmer, and I wouldn't dislike Solano, it's just that this roster really should have demanded more than one spot for the young upside players. It shouldn't JUST be Miranda. There's just too many average to below-average players on the roster.

[TwinsAce]

Good to know that we already have complaints of having too deep of a bench and too deep of a rotation.  Can you imagine a scenario instead where Celestino was our planned backup CF and Gordon was our only main INF and OF backup with the hopes that Martin would be up soon?

Taylor, Farmer, and Solano all raise the floor substantially.  Same for Lopez in the rotation.  I'd much rather have Lopez pushing out a stud prospect instead of having Archer or Bundy in the rotation.  I'm also excited knowing that Ober, SWR, Varland, etc. are all ready to fill in WHEN injuries happen.  A lot better than relying on 10 year minor league veterans too as our second wave of reinforcements.

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

Depth and injury protection. ... They either over reacted to last year, or are right in thinking kids of injury will occur again. If they use the youth, they have no backups. That's my theory.

I understand the thinking, but the problem is that there is always depth. Nobody wants to scrape the bottom of the barrel for Ryan LaMarre or Jake Cave to be the depth, but seriously, it's not nearly the drop off people make it out to be when compared to Kepler and Taylor.

From my perspective, rostering the young guys and being forced to go with guys like Cave and LaMarre as depth is much better than rostering Kepler and Taylor and making the young guys the depth and not contributing anything until someone gets injured or traded.

[stringer bell]

2 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

It's certainly a reasonable roster, but I'm still pretty disappointed in all the spots given to lackluster vets instead of the hungry, more talented young players. Solano, Taylor, Farmer and Kepler? Ugh, it should have been two of those guys tops with the higher ceiling young guys fighting each other for the last two spots.

I think Farmer and Taylor are excellent pickups. Farmer kills left handed pitching and is a versatile three-position infielder. He probably isn't a full-time starter on a contender, but he's solid and a real asset as a short-side platoon option. Buxton's history and Celestino's struggles necessitate getting a capable center fielder. While I have my qualms about WAR, his 3.2 BWar would have been exceeded by only Buxton, Arraez and Correa on the 2022 Twins and he only played in three quarters of the Royals' games.

I agree that having both Gallo and Kepler on the team seems unwise, but given all of the outfield injuries last year it might make sense to keep major leaguers rather than entrusting regular at bats to unproven players. Solano has had a good run as a hitter in his 30s. He's also versatile and hits righty giving the Twins another weapon against left handed starters. 

[nicksaviking]

9 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

I think Farmer and Taylor are excellent pickups. Farmer kills left handed pitching and is a versatile three-position infielder. He probably isn't a full-time starter on a contender, but he's solid and a real asset as a short-side platoon option. Buxton's history and Celestino's struggles necessitate getting a capable center fielder. While I have my qualms about WAR, his 3.2 BWar would have been exceeded by only Buxton, Arraez and Correa on the 2022 Twins and he only played in three quarters of the Royals' games.

I agree that having both Gallo and Kepler on the team seems unwise, but given all of the outfield injuries last year it might make sense to keep major leaguers rather than entrusting regular at bats to unproven players. Solano has had a good run as a hitter in his 30s. He's also versatile and hits righty giving the Twins another weapon against left handed starters. 

I know I got a bit hyperbolic, but really, I'm just disappointed in the offensive ceiling of this club overall. It was constructed safely, and I do understand the benefits, but it's so absent of firepower. They signed Correa and extended Buxton, but still, this feels like a super vanilla offense, and that might be a generous characterization. In particular, I really, dislike the outfield situation because of this. Gallo OR Kepler should be the FOURTH outfielder, not two of the three starters. And I don't like the team's outlook any better if Buxton goes down and a no-bat guy like Taylor is manning CF instead of Gallo or Gordon or Celestino. Those are still bathroom-break at bats.

[stringer bell]

1 hour ago, Schmoeman5 said:

I'm not sure how Kiriloff CAN be on the opening day roster. He is progressing as spring training rolls along getting more reps. But are the Twins going to put him at 1st base to start the season despite the fact he hasn't faced live pitching in a game scenario since last summer? Idk, maybe. But I would bet he'll start at SP. They pushed him last year and we all saw how that worked

Cody Christie article today says that Kirilloff is taking live BP and feeling no pain. That is an improvement from a week ago when he was facing pitching machines and still had "discomfort". If he has no setbacks and can get ten days to a week of games in, I think he can make the club. 

I don't think the Twins really pushed him last year. He started out hurting and was on the IL in April and then when recalled, he raked until the wrist dogged him again. I'm convinced he can hit if healthy. 

I want Larnach on the team from the start as well. He has a higher ceiling than Kepler and Gordon and showed last year, before injury, that he can both hit and field. The word is he's playing tomorrow. I hope he rakes and forces his way on to the Opening Day roster. BTW, there are already three injury questions (beyond Trevor) that need to be answered (Kirilloff, Gordon, Miranda) and if any of them don't make it by Opening Day, there is a clear path for Larnach to make the team.

[Schmoeman5]

2 hours ago, stringer bell said:

Cody Christie article today says that Kirilloff is taking live BP and feeling no pain. That is an improvement from a week ago when he was facing pitching machines and still had "discomfort". If he has no setbacks and can get ten days to a week of games in, I think he can make the club. 

I don't think the Twins really pushed him last year. He started out hurting and was on the IL in April and then when recalled, he raked until the wrist dogged him again. I'm convinced he can hit if healthy. 

I want Larnach on the team from the start as well. He has a higher ceiling than Kepler and Gordon and showed last year, before injury, that he can both hit and field. The word is he's playing tomorrow. I hope he rakes and forces his way on to the Opening Day roster. BTW, there are already three injury questions (beyond Trevor) that need to be answered (Kirilloff, Gordon, Miranda) and if any of them don't make it by Opening Day, there is a clear path for Larnach to make the team.

I was only referring to Kiriloff in the case that he doesn't get in any spring training games at all. If he is able to play in live games before the season starts, then he'll be fine. But I will dispute you on the matter of the Twins not pushing him last year. I remember them acknowledging his pain, but following that up with " he has to get used to playing with pain." And that there was nothing else that could be done. I'm rooting for him. And as for raking when he came back, he was hitting but there was no power due to the pain. The wrist injuries are hitters worst nightmare.

[roger]

5 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

I know I got a bit hyperbolic, but really, I'm just disappointed in the offensive ceiling of this club overall. It was constructed safely, and I do understand the benefits, but it's so absent of firepower. They signed Correa and extended Buxton, but still, this feels like a super vanilla offense, and that might be a generous characterization. In particular, I really, dislike the outfield situation because of this. Gallo OR Kepler should be the FOURTH outfielder, not two of the three starters. And I don't like the team's outlook any better if Buxton goes down and a no-bat guy like Taylor is manning CF instead of Gallo or Gordon or Celestino. Those are still bathroom-break at bats.

Have said it often over the winter that Kepler just might have a big year in 2023.  Believe that the shift flat out messed with his head.  It’s only a few games, but he looks like a totally different player to me.

[jkcarew]

I'm with Nick...and it continues to surprise me on the number who have drank the cool-aid on Solano and his ability to "mash" left-handed pitching.

Solano's carrer OPS against lefties is 711.  711.  It's higher in small samples in the past couple of years...hitting in the bandbox that is Great American and with an unsustainably high BABiP. Farmer is significantly better than Solano against lefties...but for context, he's slightly below Kyle Garlick in career OPS against lefties...and again having played basically half his career in Great American. Useful, but I don't know if I'd call it 'mashing' or 'killing' left-handed pitching. Farmer was the choice, love the defensive flexibility, but still don't get both he and Solano. I'd so rather have Lee brought up the instance there's a long-term injury on the infield to play every day. Meanwhile, I assume some of these middling veterans are gone the instant this team is out of the race (hoping that doesn't happen, but if/when it does).

[jkcarew]

Also, tip-of-the-hat to Pagan who seems like one of the only guys this spring that showed up already in mid-season form. Remains a lock as long as those photos of Rocco are in a safe place.

[Doctor Gast]

Love the idea of long relief. Hope Baldelli can figure how to use them. Because he sure was lost in how to use Dobnak. We have some pretty good candidates that can come into a game and keep us it. If we have to have Pagan, we can use him for any mop ups innings.

[nicksaviking]

13 hours ago, roger said:

Have said it often over the winter that Kepler just might have a big year in 2023.  Believe that the shift flat out messed with his head.  It’s only a few games, but he looks like a totally different player to me.

But he only hits singles. I just don't see how the new rules will give him XBH power again.

[roger]

54 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

But he only hits singles. I just don't see how the new rules will give him XBH power again.

Have you watched him in spring training?  Couple days ago he had a hard hit double and home run.  Few agree with me, but I believe his problems were mostly psychological as the shift really affected his psyche.  I look for him to be a totally different player in 2023.  Understand I may be in the minority with that view, tiny minority.

[Mike Sixel]

3 hours ago, roger said:

Have you watched him in spring training?  Couple days ago he had a hard hit double and home run.  Few agree with me, but I believe his problems were mostly psychological as the shift really affected his psyche.  I look for him to be a totally different player in 2023.  Understand I may be in the minority with that view, tiny minority.

Spring training tells us more than the last three years?