Community Blueprints: What Do Twins Fans Want to See This Offseason?

[Nick Nelson]

Fans in our community have been coming up with their own ideas, suggestions, and plans for the Minnesota Twins this offseason. We reviewed a bunch of them, and here we'll highlight some common threads, intriguing notions, and outside-the-box proposals.

We created our Roster & Payroll Creator tool with the hopes that fans would dive in and devise their own blueprints illustrating different approaches to this crucial Twins offseason. I shared my own to kick things off.

We're thrilled to see that in just a couple weeks since we officially launched the tool alongside the Offseason Handbook, several of you have taken us up on the challenge. In fact, we're kind of blown away. I went through the forums and blogs over the weekend and came across about a dozen submissions, most of them with thoughtful explanations of the decisions and motivations.

You can click through to view any of them below. Each one has its own comment thread so you can share your thoughts:

• Andrew Mahlke blueprint
• Cory Engelhardt blueprint 
• terrydactyls blueprint
• Greglw3 blueprint 
• Sconnie blueprint 
• TheLeviathan blueprint
• DocBauer blueprint
• mk blueprint
• mitcho8 blueprint 
• sthpstm blueprint 
• Ian23 blueprint 
• wildtwinsfan045 blueprint 

As I perused these various perspectives on what a successful Twins offseason would look like, here are a few trends and specifics that caught my attention.

Everyone Wants a Buxton Extension

Almost every single blueprint submitted includes a contract extension for Byron Buxton, and it was usually the top priority accounted for. I was legitimately impressed by how many people took a stab at laying out their version of a reasonable framework. The particulars varied, but most conceptual deals called for about $15M in annual base salary plus incentives over 5-7 seasons. 

I don't think I saw a single blueprint proposing a Buxton trade – a little surprising, given the likelihood of such an outcome in real life. (For what it's worth, I tried hypothesizing one in this piece.)

Basically everyone seems to be reaching the same conclusion. If reports in July were true – that Buxton's camp was comfortable with a deal built largely on incentives – it simply makes no sense for the Twins not to find a way to get it done.

The Most Popular High-End SP Target Is...

Blueprinters erred toward the side of realism, as I didn't see any write-ups that suggested signing Max Scherzer, or Clayton Kershaw, or Noah Syndergaard. The most common Tier 1 SP free agent to appear in these plans was Marcus Stroman, which doesn't surprise me because he looks like a fairly natural Twins fit. In the Handbook we noted how similarly he profiles to José Berríos as a fringe #1/2 type in the rotation. As @DocBauer put it succinctly in their blueprint: "He's quality and proven."

Robbie Ray was the prime choice of those who wanted to dream big, such as @Greglw3 and @Sconnie, and Carlos Rodón showed up in the blueprints from @Andrew Mahlke and @mk. I was a little surprised by the lack of love for Kevin Gausman, who didn't appear in a single one of these blueprints. 

We Like Big Mike

The most common free agent signing across all of these different plans was easily Michael Pineda. More than half of the blueprint submissions call for a Big Mike reunion. It's just too logical a fit. He has a known affinity for playing in Minnesota and should come with a reasonable mid-rotation price tag. In the Handbook we project him for an $8M salary – it may wind up coming in a little higher or lower, but that should be in the ballpark. If you have any faith in him staying healthy and keeping his fastball in the 93-MPH range, that's a good value and a rotation spot taken care of.

What to Do at Shortstop?

Opinions were very split on how to approach the Twins' biggest positional need. A few users called for going big – @mitcho8 proposed a Trevor Story signing, while @TheLeviathan and @wildtwinsfan045 made Corey Seager their centerpieces –  but many relented to a stopgap like Jose Iglesias or Freddy Galvis. (Notably, Andrelton Simmons was absent from all blueprints.)

Who Should Close for the Twins?

It's a key question. Most blueprints advise the Twins to stick with Taylor Rogers in his final year of arbitration. Some call for adding a co-closer to offset some of the injury risk. User @Doctor Gast decided to crowdsource the question in the forums, which created some good discussion.

Aside from Rogers, the most popular name seems to be Raisel Iglesias. Ryan Tepera and Kirby Yates (on an incentive-laden deal) were also tossed around. @Rosterman wondered if perhaps Jorge Alcalá could become a closer option as soon as 2022. (There may be something to that.) 

Kenley Jansen and Craig Kimbrel are pretty clearly out of the question, but one name that conspicuously didn't seem to come up was Mark Melancon. The fact that no one seems to be looking at him almost makes me wonder if the Twins will. Rounding out that top tier with Jansen, Kimbrel and Iglesias, Melancon seems to be the unsexy choice given his age (36) and his unspectacular strikeout rate (8.2 K/9 this year, and in his career). But the guy's track record in the closer role is pretty incredible, and he was an All-Star in 2021.

Some believe the Twins are better off keeping closer as a backburner priority, such as @nicksaviking, who made this comment that's (at least for me) hard to argue with:

"Unless it's some surprisingly big name who is a year-in year-out reliable stud, I don't want to hand over the closer gig to any free agent. Relievers rarely have similar years back to back. Their small sample sizes, transient nature and lack of a third pitch tend to make them more unpredictable than other baseball players. In 2022 the high leverage relievers should = whomever is currently the hottest pitchers RIGHT NOW; not last year, or whomever is paid the most."

Manaea Mania!

There were several different creative trade scenarios outlined in these blueprints. The most frequent player targeted was Oakland's Sean Manaea. Packages used to acquire the lefty starter differed greatly, and illustrated the difficulty of predicting trades – @Cory Engelhardt pitched a return of Matt Canterino, Matt Wallner and Blayne Enlow (a bit much, IMO), while @Ian23 drew up an exchange of Drew Strotman, Keoni Cavaco and Jermaine Palacios for Manaea and shortstop Elvis Andrus (a bit light, although I like the two-birds-with-one-stone execution here).

The bottom line is that Manaea looks like a very plausible trade candidate as a starter getting expensive in his final year of arbitration for the low-spending A's. (He's projected to make about $10M in 2021.) He's an excellent fit for the Twins and their needs.  

Mingling with Miami

Aside from the Manaea trades, there were a few other interesting ideas offered up. 

For example, @terrydactyls mapped out a blockbuster that involves Minnesota sending Max Kepler, Luis Arraez, Mitch Garver, and Simeon Woods Richardson to Miami in exchange for Sandy Alcantera and Richard Bleier, with Alcantara serving as a young ace-type centerpiece.

A blueprint from @sthpstm gives another take on a Twins/Marlins trade, proposing the following: Garver, Trevor Larnach, Miguel Sanó, Canterino (or similar), and $4M to Miami for Edward Cabrera, Jesus Luzardo, and Nick Fortes. Another high-scale concept that brings in high-end young pitching talent, this time with a top prospect as the prize rather than an established MLB starter like Alcantara.

@TheLeviathan's blueprint included a straight swap of Garver for Sixto Sanchez.

Clearly, people are zeroing in on the Marlins as a trade partner for Minnesota, and that makes plenty of sense: they have a wealth of young pitching and need bats. As Nash Walker wrote in his feature for the Handbook, "No team is a better trade partner for Minnesota than the Miami Marlins."

Let's See Your Plan

We've seen a lot of different ideas laid out above, but there are still endless combinations and permutations of what this Twins offseason could look like. We'd love to see yours, so if you haven't put one together yet, we invite you to grab a copy of the Offseason Handbook, pull up the Roster & Payroll tool, and show us what you've got. 

MORE FROM TWINS DAILY
— Order the Offseason Handbook
— Latest Twins coverage from our writers
— Recent Twins discussion in our forums
— Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email

View full article

[Doctor Gast]

I believe Tom Froemming suggested also Knebel as a closer option.

[Brandon]

I wrote a plan but do not see it above.  I did mine early on.

[rv78]

I too would like to see the Twins push Alcala to the closer role. Too bad they have a Manager who doesn't think outside the box and tried him the last month of the 2021 season to see how he handled it instead of sending Colome, who has been released already, out to finish those games. It would be one less question mark to answer had Baldelli done that and Alcala thrived there. Poor managing IMO.

[Nick Nelson]

1 hour ago, Brandon said:

I wrote a plan but do not see it above.  I did mine early on.

Share a link and I'll add it to the list in the article! My searching process was by no means comprehensive

[Nick Nelson]

2 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

I believe Tom Froemming suggested also Knebel as a closer option.

Knebel was an extremely popular FA relief option in these blueprints. Probably the most popular. I definitely get the appeal. 

[Brandon]

13 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

Share a link and I'll add it to the list in the article! My searching process was by no means comprehensive

Here is my first stab at this, I just did another updated one with updated info.  

  

[Einheri]

Sign Buxton and I'll be pretty happy.  Pick up at least one reasonably high-tier starting pitcher in free agency (and also Big Mike as your #3), then trade for the best higher-tier young pitcher you can, a #2 guy.  Solve everything else in-house unless a sweet trade deal or free agent appears in your lap.

[bean5302]

I definitely want the Twins to trade Buxton, I haven't used the tool, though. Been short on time.

[dxpavelka]

$15 million a year is NOT going to get the job done on the Buxton front.

[roger]

Interesting.  All the proposed trades always seem to me to have the Twins giving up too much, way too much, for some glitzy name.  Add me to the keep Buxton here camp.

[mike8791]

Now that QO list is complete, it is notable that 3 very good pitchers were not on it:  Jon Gray, Carlos Rodon, and Anthony DeSclafani( and Stroman was ineligible for QO).   Consideration of relinquishing their #3 draft pick might play a role in FO decisions on SP selection.  While Stroman might have been the #1 choice in the TD universe, he certainly would be highest price, probably over $25MM/yr for minimum of 5-6 years.  Any one of the other 3 pitchers might be a better choice, with Rodon at the top of my list.  He returned in September throwing 99MPH, though SSS.  While higher risk perhaps, he is only one who has ace potential.

[DJL44]

8 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

$15 million a year is NOT going to get the job done on the Buxton front.

They've got to top Lorenzo Cain's 5 year $80M deal. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Not that I “want” the FO to blow it up, but that does seem like a logical direction to take.

I tried to put my thoughts to spreadsheet but struggled to get my head wrapped around it.

I haven’t reviewed all of the blueprints out there, but the ones I did either met, or exceeded the budget.

Did anyone work that scenario out? How did it look?

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, Sconnie said:

I haven’t reviewed all of the blueprints out there, but the ones I did either met, or exceeded the budget.

Did anyone work that scenario out? How did it look?

You can quickly throw ideas together:

[tony&rodney]

Another ... and put Galvis or someone inexpensive in place of Lewis ....

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, Sconnie said:

Not that I “want” the FO to blow it up, but that does seem like a logical direction to take.

 

Falvey works for Pohlad and they will do whatever - we just goof around, thus our logic is scattered. Fans in every market do the same and you can see some proposed trades that take Buxton (kind of them) for someone like Urshela (NYY). That's crazy and maybe we are too.

[dex8425]

11 hours ago, Einheri said:

Sign Buxton and I'll be pretty happy.  Pick up at least one reasonably high-tier starting pitcher in free agency (and also Big Mike as your #3), then trade for the best higher-tier young pitcher you can, a #2 guy.  Solve everything else in-house unless a sweet trade deal or free agent appears in your lap.

Who plays shortstop then? 

[dex8425]

Here's mine. (Edited to reflect higher price for Gausman) Gray gets 4/60. Stroman gets 5/100. Buxton extended- 6 years, 120m, backloaded and incentive driven. He gets 10 this year. I'm bringing back Simmons because he played well while the team was near the division lead and he's a good bounce back candidate. Happy with this bullpen and rotation. Dobnak, when healthy and not jerked around by team plans, has been more effective than Pineda. 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-XChUZHAKmTFWms2MjhZ31d9L8Mqrm1UQhDUQbCglhs/edit?usp=sharing

[Einheri]

40 minutes ago, dex8425 said:

Who plays shortstop then? 

An interesting question but not one that concerns much me until Twins sign Buxton and sign/trade for three quality starting pitchers with the floor for a #3 being Big Mike (hopefully better).  If they solve Buxton and pitching, even Andrelton Simmons on a cheap SS contract would win you games.

[DocBauer]

Going to, unfortunately, repeat previous comments/opinions. 

As simplistic as it may sound, signing a guy to front the rotation is not the issue, IMO. Stoman remains my first choice because it just makes the most sense. Though there are obviously other options i couldn't disagree with. And Pineda as the #3 also re-signed for the same reason.

In my plan, I went the FA route for the #2 spot because trades are just so hard to speculate. Plus, if you have the payroll to add without subtracting, then why wouldn't you do so? I still maintain finding the #2 guy for the rotation is the hardest part of projecting the  2022 rotation. I sti) think it's 50/50, maybe 60/40 we add a quality rotation piece for next season vs a FA. But, IMO, it has to come from the prospect side. I just can't see trading from the ML side of things and weakening a spot. 

Again, think a Odorizzi or Maeda type of trade.

[TopGunn#22]

I should probably get this so I can offer something "intelligent" instead of "wildly speculative."  Noticed in the link provided by dex8425 that Gausman is listed as a $25 million per year SP but somehow we signed him for $17 million.  Gotta fix that.

[dxpavelka]

On 11/8/2021 at 7:43 AM, DJL44 said:

They've got to top Lorenzo Cain's 5 year $80M deal. 

The 5 years sounds right but the total price is more likely gonna be $125 million.