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2022 Off-Season Moves by terrydactyls


terrydactyls

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Welcome to the terrydactyls 2022 off-season moves.  My decisions had a couple of assumptions.

1. Buxton is extended at a base of $15M a year plus incentives.

2. A trade is made with the Miami Marlins.  The Twins trade Kepler, Arraez, Garver, and Wood Richardson in exchange for Sandy Alcantera and Richard Bleier (LHRP).  This seemingly lopsided trade was necessary to balance the trade on baseballtradesimulator.com.  If the trade can be completed with less assets moving to Miami, that's even better.

3. The front office made its final decision based on the New Home Buyer methodology (explained below).

 

My first step was to fill the holes left by the trade.  So Jeffers takes over for Garver, Celestino replaces Kepler,  and Gordon is the new Utility Guy instead of Arraez.  Yes it is a loss of offensive punch but I believe the farm had plenty of substitutes.  Miranda is now the full time DH.  Larnach, Astudillo and Rortvedt complete the bench.  To cover the SS hole, I sign free agent Iglesias to a 1-year deal.

 

Next, I turned to the pitching side.  Alcantera is now at the top of the rotation.  I retain Ober and Ryan as starters.  In the bullpen, I retain Rogers, Duffey, Thielbar, Alcala, and Moran plus the addition of Bleier from the trade.  I then sign free agents McHugh and Knebe to complete the bullpen.  At this point, my salary total is at $96.4M leaving me $34.4M for two starting pitchers.  Next up is to get Robbie Ray at $25M, leaving only $9.4M for the last remaining roster spot.  This is where the New Home Buyer methodology comes into play.  When buying a house, you always have a list of desired features and a budget within to work.  The decision you have to make is between most of your features and staying within budget, or stretching your budget and get some additional features that you really want.  I can add Pineda for $10M and come in just slightly over my $130M budget.  But that doesn't give me the dream house I would really like.  So do I stretch my budget a little and get what I want or live with the less than ideal situation.  I decide to stretch the budget and sign Stroman for $20M.  That brings my new salary total to $140.6M.  That might necessitate reducing the number of three martini lunches for the front office, but it will give me a World Series caliber starting rotation, a very solid bullpen, and enough offensive to win a lot of games.  Comments?

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Sounds good. Would love for all of that to happen. Two free agent bullpen arms and two free agent pitchers. You have to jettison three guys from the current 40-,am roster. A fourth if you do sign a shortstop.

 

Starting the season with Celestino and Kirilloff in the outfield, Jeffers catching. Is Rooker still on the team? I would be even more pleased if could move Donaldson and get some of that payroll back!

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I'm liking the pitching but wondering how much Stroman will sign for in the real world. I know the board had him at $20 million and that seems about right but it also seems like he might get more money.

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I really like what you did!

You stretched the payroll the same way I did, mine was to 142.1 M.

I like your full time promotion of Miranda! - I did the same thing.

You saw the necessity of innovating in the OF, which is a key for next year. If Celestino is ready, that could be a real nice OF.  We agree that Kirilloff is needed to strengthen a perilously fragile OF.

Getting McHugh and Knebe is a really great strike. I wanted McHugh but used 8M to get Canha in LF, moving Kirilloff to RF.

Our rotations are similar. You were very clever the way you got that big 3. I had Ray, Danny Duffy and Pineda with the same 4 and 5 as you in Ober and Ryan.

If we could get that roster that you compiled for 140.6, I would be thrilled! Take a look at my roster, if you like.

The main point is that I really want Levine and Falvey to go aggressively after it like you did and like I did! Do they read Twins Daily??? Greg Allen

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Terry,  thanks for reemphasizing need for signing 3 pitchers who can really move the needle for this team.  You've shown how a $130MM budget is inadequate for acquiring such talent.  $140MM is a floor for contention in 2022.

As to your selections,  Ray would be a clear ace on this team, but likely to get a QO.  With a #8 first round draft pick, just can't see FO pulling the trigger.  Ditto with Rodon and probably Gausman.  Stroman looks like best bet but it would take out-bidding some big market teams to land him.  Alcantara would be a fine addition but Twins could not afford to give up 3 starting offensive players.   They must be prepared to give up Garver or Jeffers(I would think the fish would be more interested in the younger Jeffers) and either Arraez(better) or Kepler plus one of our top pitching prospects.  Too many questions in the OF(even if Bux resigned) to trade Kepler,  Celestino better as reserve OF, not a starter.  Lopez might be more attainable.  And finally, Pineda would be a solid #3, at least for a year, but would prefer a trade for someone like Gallen or Manaea with higher upside.  Thor would be a great fallback signing, but again, question of QO.

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I love it Terry.  It aligns with mine belief that "just a couple of arms" won't do it for the Twins in 2022.  I have substituted Larnach for Kepler and Jeffers for Garver in my Miami trade suggestions.  I realize this would ADD to the already $10 million over budget total, but I think the Marlins would be more interested in Jeffers as a long term solution at catcher and Larnach who has the potential to be a better hitter than Kepler and would also be more affordable.  

I did not realize the "Cost" for Ray would be so high (I'm referring to losing the #8 overall pick).  This really changes my view on acquiring a #1 arm via F.A.  Here's how I would attack this problem in your roster building scenario:

I've trade Jeffers and Larnach instead of Garver and Kepler.  I'm not spending $25 million on Ray or $20 on Stroman.  I sign Eduardo Rodriguez for 4-years and $12 million per year.  I include some incentives each season as well.  Jon Gray would also require a Q.O. and I'm not sure what the compensation for signing him would be.  So to save a little more, Pineda for 2-years $8-$10 million per year).  I sign Andrew Heaney to a one-year $5 million dollar contract.  Heaney is my "Lottery Ticket."  Danny Duffey does NOT require a Q.O. so I'd make a run at him at $10 million per year.

Starting Rotation:  Alcantara, Ed. Rod, Danny Duffey or Pineda, Ryan, Ober and Heaney.  I'm listing 6 because Ryan and Ober will be on pitch/innings limits and we KNOW we will need depth.  Dobnak, Balazovic, Duran, Winder, and Gant, can provide some depth. (I'm keeping Gant as his ability as an adequate "swing man" will be valuable and I'm saving the $6 million that McHugh would cost).  That's a starting rotation that can compete.  

I don't know if I'm "missing something" but is Knebe really Knebel who pitched for the Dodgers this year ???  I'm hoping it is.  I would love to add him to the bullpen and make him our closer.  Is $5 million per year realistic for him ?  I think it's low.  But someone please tell me if I'm misunderstanding this.  If it's Cory Knebel, we've got a pretty good bullpen.  

The lineup is slightly different then with Garver at catcher backed up by Rortvedt or a Jason Castro type of cheap backup while Rortvedt spends a little more time refining his skills at St. Paul and Kepler is in RF.  If I had any money to play with, I might go for a guy like Mark Canha to play LF and move Kiriloff fulltime to 1B making Sano the primary DH.  This way, I can use Miranda like Arraez and play him semi-consistently at 3B, LF, 2B and 1B.

I would sign a guy like Iglesias but also check in with the Royals and see what it would take to trade for Mondesi.  Mondesi would be another "Lottery Ticket."  If he stays healthy and wins the SS position we've hit a JACKPOT and Iglesias provides a steady glove and infield depth.  If he gets hurt (which the odds favor) and misses a lot of time, Iglesias is there to steady the infield.  

That's a rough outline of what my plan would be.  But I think Terry did a great job of shoring up our pitching deficiencies as well as keeping the lineup relatively intact.  

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I have stared at the roster you laid out for a while now (actually, quite a while), and while I like what I see vs. the '21 roster, it is contingent on some very unlikely scenarios.  Miami, having depth at pitching and lacking some other components, would probably go for the trade as laid out, but it does leave some holes you are patching up with unproven commodities.  And it assumes Buxton will sign for that price, which personally I don't think he will, but it is nice to hope for.  And getting any of the FA pitchers you are talking about is highly unlikely for all the reasons listed by others and then some.  

A few questions if I may:  If you are going to go with an unproven player who has never had a major league at bat in Miranda, why at DH?  We know Donaldson is going to have to go there more and more often in his last years here, and Sano is a prototype in that position as well, with his well below average defense.  And Kiriloff has graded out positive at first base, and not as well in the outfield; why not put him in a better defensive position manned now by a well below average fielder?  And what is it about Jeffers and Rortvedt offensively that makes you comfortable with them for a whole season?  And Ryan and Ober looked good for a few months, but what is plan B if one or both slide?  And last, but certainly not least, what if JP says no to a budget beginning with the numbers 14? (I can't find a season yet that he has)  What positions need to be changed on the chart?   After 2 years of pretty heavy financial losses, I have to wonder about JP.  

I can't argue with the roster as you laid it out as a whole; good pitching will hold up the lack of offense if the defense holds up as well.  But there are so many pitfalls in the compilation of the final package that I would have a plan B, C, and D in my back pocket.  

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Here is my vision for the future with only one trade (Jax and Rooker for Sonny Gray), only going through free agency.

Step 1 is exending Buxton for a base of $15M a year.  Incentives are not included because they are an unknown.  The only new position player is Jose Iglesias to play SS.  I added two new starters, Sonny Gray and Anthony Disclafani, and three new relievers (Collin McHugh, Corey Knebel,  and Raisel Iglesias).  I did end up $2M over the $130M budget but that's budget dust in the big picture.  Comments, complaints, and revisions are always welcome (but usually ignored).

All Dollars Shown in Millions
Pos Player $$$   Pos Player $$$   DEAD MONEY
C Garver $3.50   SP1 Gray $10.00   Position Player $$$
1B Sano $9.25   SP2 DeSclafani  $15.00   Maeda - SP (injured) $3.00
2B Polanco $5.50   SP3 Moran $0.60   Colome - RP (buyout) $1.25
3B Donaldson $21.00   SP4 Ober $0.60        
SS Iglesias  $3.00   SP5 Ryan $0.60        
LF Kirilloff $0.60                
CF Buxton $15.00   RP Rogers $7.00        
RF Kepler $6.75   RP Duffey $3.50        
DH Miranda $0.60   RP Thielbar $1.50   TOTAL $132.15  
        RP Alcala $0.60   BUDGET $130.00  
4th OF Larnach $0.60   RP McHugh  $6.00   AVAILABLE -$2.15  
Utility Arraez $1.50   RP Knebel $5.00        
Utility Gordon $0.60   RP Minaya $1.00        
2nd C Jeffers $0.60   RP Iglesias  $8.00        
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On 10/29/2021 at 9:36 AM, mike8791 said:

Terry,  thanks for reemphasizing need for signing 3 pitchers who can really move the needle for this team.  You've shown how a $130MM budget is inadequate for acquiring such talent.  $140MM is a floor for contention in 2022.

As to your selections,  Ray would be a clear ace on this team, but likely to get a QO.  With a #8 first round draft pick, just can't see FO pulling the trigger.  Ditto with Rodon and probably Gausman.  Stroman looks like best bet but it would take out-bidding some big market teams to land him.  Alcantara would be a fine addition but Twins could not afford to give up 3 starting offensive players.   They must be prepared to give up Garver or Jeffers(I would think the fish would be more interested in the younger Jeffers) and either Arraez(better) or Kepler plus one of our top pitching prospects.  Too many questions in the OF(even if Bux resigned) to trade Kepler,  Celestino better as reserve OF, not a starter.  Lopez might be more attainable.  And finally, Pineda would be a solid #3, at least for a year, but would prefer a trade for someone like Gallen or Manaea with higher upside.  Thor would be a great fallback signing, but again, question of QO.

There will new rules in place regarding the QO starting December 1st.  When the current CBA expires at the end of November, a team's highest draft pick becomes protected.  I am willing to give up my 2nd round pick if I can get Robbie Ray.  And if that happens, then it would cost a 3rd round pick for Thor.  That seems reasonable.

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The Twins only lose their Round 2 pick by signing a top pick. Any changes to the CBA will likely not be immediate in regards to free agency. For example, if a decision is made to change the years necessary to become a free agent from six to five, those players at five will not suddenly become free agents. 

The idea of trading for pitching remains important. Miami, Oakland, and Milwaukee are three teams to call, but there are others worth a text too. Miami is trying to sign Alcantara long term and increasingly unlikely to deal him. They want catchers and outfielders. They are set at 2B and 3B. The idea is correct however. Maybe a spin for Meyer would work. I had suggested a trade of Larnach, Jeffers, Sands, Celestino, and Lewis for Alcantara and Meyer. Miami says no, so try to pry away Meyer and Cabrera for TL, RJ, GC, Vallimont, and Cavaco. This may not work, but there should be trades available in time. Maybe the Reds are willing too.

I like the idea of Ray, Stroman, Gray, and Rodriguez. It may be very difficult to outbid other teams. I expect Stroman to get $22-25, and Rodriguez to get $15. Ray may get $27, and Gray $15. This will all be hard for budgets. We shall see.

The Braves (Liberty) published their Quarter 3 numbers and it is an interesting glance into baseball economics. 

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I agree that the Twins should have the budget to sign at least ONE decent SP.  Robbie Ray may be a tough signing at $27 million per year, but Rodriguez at $15 or Gray at $15 (or both) would really bolster our starting rotation.  Yes, we have young guys coming up through the pipeline, but every young pitcher is going to be coddled with innings and pitch limits.  We need to bring in FOUR starting pitchers.  Rather than have just one Robbie Ray, I'd spend the $30 million annually if I could add Gray and Ed Rod. and sign Pineda at $8 million.  But tony&rodney, you and I have been consistently advocating for TRADING for a SP or two.  And your targeting of Miami, Oakland and Milwaukee is hitting the top 3 "contenders."  From Oakland, Montas may be too costly but Bassitt and Manaea are great targets.  Someone like Kaprellian wouldn't be a bad throw in.  With Miami, Alcantara was just TOO GOOD last year.  The Marlins are going to build around him now, but they have young pitchers just coming out of their ears and big needs in corner OF and catcher.  Max Meyer, Luzardo, Cabrera are all good targets.  The Brewers have guys like Lauer and Houser that are gettable.  Heck, I'd look into the possibility of Josh Hader.  As a Twins fan, I'd LOVE the the idea of HIM coming in to save a game (rather than Colome or even Taylor Rogers).  If Hader pitches in 2022 the way he's pitched the last 3 years he will be worth whatever he costs in an extension.  With a SP rotation of Gray, Ed. Rod, TRADE acquisition or two, Pineda at $8 million per year and Ryan and Ober the Twins would have depth.  Depending on how Gray, Ed. Rod, the trade acquisitions and Ryan and Ober fare, and with Balazovic, Duran, Canterino, Sands, Winder and others coming thru the pipeline (and I realize one of two of those pitchers might be needed to pry Hader away from the Brewers) the Twins could see themselves actually trading pitching in 2023/2024 to fill other roster holes.  You can never have too much pitching.

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2 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

you and I have been consistently advocating for TRADING for a SP or two. 

Yes, we have been annoyingly consistent in proposing trades. My initial target, Alcantara, may have outgrown our resources unless Lewis is included in a deal and that doesn't seem likely. I follow and watch the minor leagues too much for my own good and do like the Twins farm system. Prospects are enticing but the reality is that only so many make a difference in MLB. Additionally, I am in favor of improving the athleticism of the roster. I was pumped that the Twins took Kirilloff and Larnach but believe Larnach could bring the Twins pitching which would be more favorable than his own potential  contributions. For the same reasons, I targeted Montas for Arraez, Duffey, and a couple more players. I have wondered about a Sano for Lauer trade. Milwaukee and readers may say Sano isn't worth it, but I backed off of that because I can see a real resurgence for Sano despite the frustrations of many Twins fans. Stroman and Ray are delicious ideas, but Rodriguez and Pineda along with two starters gained in trades may be more efficient and effective. So far, I haven't seen any good reasons to believe that some decent trades cannot work. Nevertheless, all of this is dependent on a budget above $115 million and that isn't clear either. This Winter has the potential for one of the most uplifting or deflating off seasons in recent memory because the Twins are at a crucial point between a core in place and a core on the way mixed with a starting pitching lineup that includes exactly zero pitchers with experience. The cherry on top of this enigmatic roster is Byron Buxton. What will happen? Falvey has scribbles on multiple sheets of paper.

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