Offseason Plan: Trade for Edward Cabrera, Jesus Luzardo

[sthpstm]

Admittedly, I think there will be a lot of negative views towards this type of plan, but I've decided to work with a couple of beliefs and assumptions.

1. I think "competetive" in 2022 means a team that can reasonably hover around .500 with a chance for more if things break right. 2. I think the Twins lineup lacks consistency and has too many all or nothing hitters. Some of those (ie. Rosario) are good but too many and your lineup can tank quickly. 3. If you want good things you have to pay for them, or trade good things for them. Sano, Donaldson, or Kepler trades won't bring back those pieces. 4. Not getting Zach Wheeler or Madison Bumgartner hurt and I personally don't see those two in this years free agent market. 5. When hired to fix a "total system failure," Falvine should have had a 5-7 year period to build a pitching pipeline. We're now getting into that period and I'm going to trust their work, to some degree. 6. The Twins will HAVE to overpay for free agents. 7. Our defense needs to be prioritized, especially the outfield since a lot of pitching seems geared away from ground ball pitchers.

I'm making a risky trade. Garver (this one is particularly painful), Larnach, Sano, Canterino (or similar), and $4M to Miami for Edward Cabrera, Jesus Luzardo, and Nick Fortes. Both Cabrera and Luzardo come with significant risk and significant upside. I like the options the Twins have in the high minors but I see a lot of solid contributors but little potential for an Ace. These two bring this. They, along with Ryan, Ober and Dobnack will compete for 2 spots in the rotation. My initial choices would be Ryan, Cabrera, and Ober. Fortes will compete with Rordtvedt for back up catcher.

Sign Jon Gray, 4 years, $60M

Sign Michael Pineda, 2 years, $16M 

Bullpen: John Gant has been a very good reliever. That's what he's going to be for me. I'm also signing Archie Bradley and moving Jax to the bullpen; he has always looked like a reliever to me.  

Batters/Lineup: Jeffers gets the bulk of the catching duties. He struggled some but I'm a big believer. Kirilloff moves to 1B. Andrelton Simmons is brought back. I still think Lewis is the SS of the future and of the other options available, I'll bet on Simmons returning to higher contact in such a way that he will at least being a positive contributor with his defense included. I'm signing Chris Taylor for 3 years, $42M. He'll primarily be LF if things go well, but can fill in at SS, CF, and other spots as needed. Arraez will be the "DH" but will get plenty of time in the field. I'm signing Brad Miller to back up 1B, DH, PH and fill in where needed on occasion. Rooker, Gordon and Fortes/Rordtvedt get the other 3 bench spots, with Miranda, Celestino, Martin, and Lewis, etc, getting ready in AAA

Using reasonable projections, and early Steamer Projections, this would put our lineup, bullpen and rotation in the top 10-15 for 2021.

Twins 2022 Roster & Payroll Creator (SHARED).xlsx

[Major League Ready]

I agree the odds of field a contender in 2022 are slim.  What I don't agree with is ... If you are going to accept a 500 or slightly above team in 2022, then take 2022 to develop pitching.  Invest in the future if you are not contending.  This roster punts a year and fills the rotation so that you can't give our prospects time.  Yes, I realize injuries will probably present opportunities but either put a contender on the field or make the investment in roster spots to develop a staff internally.  Also, we have a lot of guys who can play corner OF.  If you get Chris Taylor, play him at SS until you come up with a better option.

If you are successful and develop a couple more starters, all that payroll and prospect capital you invested in 2022 can be directed toward final pieces, whatever they might be.  Should we want to follow a plan to be a respectable in 2022 and a fringe contender in 2023 or do we want to follow a path in 2022 that provides the best chance of producing a contender in 2023?  

Maybe I have a flawed assumption in that I believe playing time at the ML level is important in developing pitchers.  I see plan after plan filling the rotation with established SPs that will probably give us a good team in 2022 but little realistic chance of being a true contender.