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sthpstm

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Everything posted by sthpstm

  1. I have supported this front office and I’m certain I haven’t blasted them here, but that changes now… Josh Winder is not a bullpen pitcher, having Chris Archer (some may substitute Dylan Bundy) start over him is ridiculous. And now, sending Royce Lewis to AAA (while having stubbornly continued to bat him at the bottom of the lineup) is ridiculous. These 2 young guys are clearly a part of the future and clear upgrades over whomever they would displace. I refuse to believe that a guy who is as determined and focused as Lewis is going to be ruined by playing him out of position, off SS, this year. I call BS. I have to think this is not sitting well with the best players in the clubhouse either, or his agent. Worst move(s) of the year right here. This is a shame on the FO and manager.
  2. The law may say she didn’t die and it was consensual so we have no box to check for prosecution. Can the MLB not take that more into consideration than the law can? They can’t be expected to put in writing the depraved acts someone might perform, consensual or not. What he and she did is insanity, and could have resulted in death, and he’s being punished by his employer for it. End of story as far as I can see.
  3. Oh good, someone pushing the “cheap Pohlads” agenda. Too bad the Twins are sending cash to the Padres.
  4. I think I might love this trade. The loss of Rogers really hurts. BUT I love the swagger and pitches of Paddack. I wouldn’t be surprised if the thought process is to use a Paddack or a Ryan or Winder in the BP late in the season if the games matter. Pagan…the way relievers can go from stud to bust and vice versa, he may be better than many expect. Do the Twins think they’ve figured out something on home run suppression? Between Bundy and Pagan and others, I hope so!
  5. I guess I think Winder is more likely than some others think he is. Will Archer go 2 innings in his first start, and Gray maybe 3? If Winder is up to 5 innings I think may need those.
  6. Garver will be missed but I do like this trade. I thought we were already deep in pitching at the high Minor levels and now we get deeper. Does this show that we definitely are going to see what that pitching can do with the majors early and often? And while he is not quite at the level of Arraez offensively, does this make a trade of him more likely?
  7. Would you trade Arraez for Cole Sands, Randy Dobnak, and Chris Vallimont? That seems like pretty similar return if it was reversed. No way I would trade Arraez for that.
  8. And in the next year or 2 he absolutely could have as bad a year as Simmons did. Look at his last 3 years. He’s heading that direction.
  9. His option (potential player option) is too complicated. The first year isn’t the issue, it’s the second year that is and I’m not sure you can accurately value that.
  10. I don’t see Arraez as redundant and admit I like a player with lead off skills. Yes, on the defensive side he is redundant but not on the offensive side. He brings skills that most of our players and prospects don’t. Trade someone with power who strikes out a lot (Sano, cough cough). We seem to have a surplus of those players and prospects. Yes, he would bring back more in return but I continue to think a trade for a SP is going to be someone less established than a Castillo or Montas.
  11. Have to be impressed with the season Celestino had at AAA after his MLB struggles and very little AA and A+ experience. Despite his struggles, it was good to see him keep his strikeout rate in check. Has he also shown the reverse splits that he did in the Majors or was that just SSS?
  12. Rordtvedt has shown good improvement in his numbers the last few years compared to the first couple. Butera never showed that kind of average hitting consistently. I think you should review their numbers a bit instead of lumping a whole minors career into 1 number.
  13. How many pitchers did Cleveland sign to this type of deal before their run of success. How about Tampa? Whether people here like it or not, this is what they’re trying to build - a pipeline like Cleveland and Tampa had. They’re not going to blow a bunch of money or trade off a bunch of prospects to block that pipeline. I’m not saying they won’t acquire one, and maybe sign or trade for another cheap reclamation project but people here need to realize and accept what they’re trying to do, or just keep complaining.
  14. The world has enough arrogance, close-mindedness, and unwillingness to compromise. I hope the two sides involved don’t share those traits. “I first want to ask you why you don’t support the great game of baseball” If this is how you start your letter it’s hard to imagine the remainder constructive and worth reading. The idea that he doesn’t support baseball is ludicrous. He works for people running businesses. We won’t always agree with him because of that, but wow man. Growing tired of this attitude from too many people.
  15. I think a lot of people need to prepare to be disappointed when the Twins don’t “win” or coming anywhere close to “winning” the off-season. The FO was brought in to develop pitching, not spend a bunch of money signing it. The pipeline is close to producing and I think we should be prepared to see that begin in 2022 and so they probably won’t sign a bunch of guys just to block it.
  16. I don’t understand all this angst and negativity against the FO for Baddoo. The Tigers just cut him loose and no one else wanted him, right? Shouldn’t that tell you something if you hold him against them?
  17. Yes, they were older. They also had generally decent health and continue to, at least compared to Buxton. I wanted(ed) the Twins to sign Buxton. My main point was the writer uses these examples of contracts but then doesn’t analyze them!? So I looked at all those players myself to see how they worked out. Turns out he didn’t analyze them Because a lot of them sucked afterwards. And the 2 that didn’t suck afterwards had healthy histories. And also, can someone give an example of a player with an extensive injury history who turned things around in the 30’s. I’m sure they exist I just can’t think of any. But what’s concerning is that Buxton early on had a lot of fluke injuries. That is still somewhat true but now he has nagging hip, nagging hamstring, shoulder surgery, etc. I don’t think these are good signs of future health, but who knows.
  18. Wow, the information you provided kind of changed my mind and is convincing me the Twins SHOULDN’T sign Buxton. All of those players have falling apart or begun to fall apart. Blackmon and Cain were originally worth their contracts but not anymore and the others have been largely disasters. Considering his already extensive injury history, and the fact that you can’t depend on him for many games per year, maybe moving on is acceptable.
  19. Admittedly, I think there will be a lot of negative views towards this type of plan, but I've decided to work with a couple of beliefs and assumptions. 1. I think "competetive" in 2022 means a team that can reasonably hover around .500 with a chance for more if things break right. 2. I think the Twins lineup lacks consistency and has too many all or nothing hitters. Some of those (ie. Rosario) are good but too many and your lineup can tank quickly. 3. If you want good things you have to pay for them, or trade good things for them. Sano, Donaldson, or Kepler trades won't bring back those pieces. 4. Not getting Zach Wheeler or Madison Bumgartner hurt and I personally don't see those two in this years free agent market. 5. When hired to fix a "total system failure," Falvine should have had a 5-7 year period to build a pitching pipeline. We're now getting into that period and I'm going to trust their work, to some degree. 6. The Twins will HAVE to overpay for free agents. 7. Our defense needs to be prioritized, especially the outfield since a lot of pitching seems geared away from ground ball pitchers. I'm making a risky trade. Garver (this one is particularly painful), Larnach, Sano, Canterino (or similar), and $4M to Miami for Edward Cabrera, Jesus Luzardo, and Nick Fortes. Both Cabrera and Luzardo come with significant risk and significant upside. I like the options the Twins have in the high minors but I see a lot of solid contributors but little potential for an Ace. These two bring this. They, along with Ryan, Ober and Dobnack will compete for 2 spots in the rotation. My initial choices would be Ryan, Cabrera, and Ober. Fortes will compete with Rordtvedt for back up catcher. Sign Jon Gray, 4 years, $60M Sign Michael Pineda, 2 years, $16M Bullpen: John Gant has been a very good reliever. That's what he's going to be for me. I'm also signing Archie Bradley and moving Jax to the bullpen; he has always looked like a reliever to me. Batters/Lineup: Jeffers gets the bulk of the catching duties. He struggled some but I'm a big believer. Kirilloff moves to 1B. Andrelton Simmons is brought back. I still think Lewis is the SS of the future and of the other options available, I'll bet on Simmons returning to higher contact in such a way that he will at least being a positive contributor with his defense included. I'm signing Chris Taylor for 3 years, $42M. He'll primarily be LF if things go well, but can fill in at SS, CF, and other spots as needed. Arraez will be the "DH" but will get plenty of time in the field. I'm signing Brad Miller to back up 1B, DH, PH and fill in where needed on occasion. Rooker, Gordon and Fortes/Rordtvedt get the other 3 bench spots, with Miranda, Celestino, Martin, and Lewis, etc, getting ready in AAA Using reasonable projections, and early Steamer Projections, this would put our lineup, bullpen and rotation in the top 10-15 for 2021. Twins 2022 Roster & Payroll Creator (SHARED).xlsx
  20. The trade of Brusdar Graterol has brought a lot of emotions and grand presumptions from fans and commentators. Unfortunately, most of the reactions, assumptions and presumptions of this trade are wrong. Stick with me here, but the Twins HAD to trade Graterol and in doing so this organization has FINALLY sold high on a prospect. All we have to do is look at the past to see what happened here. When Falvey and Levine were hired, they talked about research and development and opined that perhaps keeping players healthy and using research on available medical data might be the next market inefficiency. While this is likely what lead to the decisions to sign Pineda and Hill, it seems reasonable that not all of the results of this research would lead to signing players. It has also lead to pointing to data on what type of player to avoid. Approximately 2 years ago, 2 transactions occurred that I believe hint to what lead to the departure of Graterol. These transactions were befuddling to many of us - the Twins let two future stud relievers in JT Chargois and Nick Burdi leave for nothing. Burdi was left unprotected and was selected in the rule 5 draft by the Phillies before being traded to the Pirates. Chargois was claimed off waivers by the Dodgers. The bullpen was in desperate need of help from strikeout pitchers and yet the Twins let go of perhaps their two most likely young pitchers that could do that. And they have started to show that striking out batters is definitely what they can do! Oh, except they've not been able to do much of it because they can't stay on the field. Nick Burdi has barely pitched since heading to Pittsburgh. While JT Chargois has not been injured to the same extent, the results have not been there. He is now heading to Japan, having been released by the Dodgers. These two were well regarded prospects. Certainly the Twins could have gotten something for them at some point. But they didn't and instead had to let them go for nothing. Not so with Graterol who was another high-octane pitcher, and most likely a reliever, with a history of injury troubles. So rather than bemoan the fact that he was traded and won't be pitching 200 innings and winning a Cy Young, be thrilled that the Twins have finally shown that they have learned the lessons of the past. I certainly don't know what data the Twins have found to tell them to let these to go. But clearly they saw something that told them that having these two players on their 40 man roster was not worth it. It was better to let them go and protect other players who could serve as MLB players and as depth for the roster in 2018, 2019, and moving forward. For Graterol, rather than sitting through more years of injury-shortened seasons, and perhaps a second TJ surgery, the Twins cashed in for a solid starting pitcher in Kenta Maeda. One who, while having his own red flags should contribute through the season and into October. So don't be stressed, be thankful that you cheer for a team that has finally figured out what they're doing, even if we don't always immediately get it. On a final note, I've heard some prognosticators prognosticating that now that the Twins have traded a prospect for immediate help, they are going to start trading other top prospects for help at the trade deadline. I think this is wishful assumption making based on nothing concrete. All we know right now is that if the Twins have identified a high risk player, they'll be willing to cash in that chip rather than end up getting nothing.
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