Blueprint Closer?

[Doctor Gast]

This year I see a gaping hole at closer. Even if you want to bring back Colume, I'd wouldn't trust him at closing until he could prove to me that he can. Thinking about what my blueprint might look like. I have to admit that I don't really know who my closer would be. So I'm here again to ask for help from my TD family. Who do you think should be our closer? Should we go in-house? or which pitchers are available via FA or trade with a willing team? Maybe he has a track record or one that is ready to take the next step? 

Please give your suggestions and why.

[bean5302]

Taylor Rogers because he's been consistently one of the best closers in baseball over the past few years.

[tony&rodney]

I wonder if Yates might be a good complement to Rogers or if the Twins might be able to sign Iglesias for 3/$33 and Yates for $2 to use with a healthy Rogers? I have a fair amount of confidence in the maturation process of Alcala, Thielbar, and Minaya and see a couple of rookies providing sound relief. Closer is tough if Rogers is hurt and the Twins cannot sign someone like Iglesias or Knebel. We are seeing the importance of a deep bullpen in the playoffs.

[Doctor Gast]

26 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Taylor Rogers because he's been consistently one of the best closers in baseball over the past few years.

Totally agree w/ you but when will he come back? and what shape will he be in? and do we need a RH closer to compliment him?

[Richie the Rally Goat]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

Totally agree w/ you but when will he come back? and what shape will he be in? and do we need a RH closer to compliment him?

And can you allocate 7m to a reliever who is a big question mark when (I predict) the budget will be the same or lower than 2021 due to COVID financial gaps while filling 3 holes in your rotation?

[Brock Beauchamp]

I’m not sure who I’d target but I’d definitely target a good right-handed reliever to close in case Rogers stumbles when he returns from rehabbing the finger. 

[Doctor Gast]

I don't want to get off target because I really want to get some names & reasons for closer. But I wanted to express that I think Alcala is ready for the transition to starter now that he has a 3rd pitch and the ability to get lefties out. Put him in long relief and eventually spot starting. That being said I'd bring up Duran as a RP until he develop his 3rd pitch. Although I'd start him in AAA so he can focus on his 3rd pitch. I'd really like him eventually get a taste of the MLB. It'd be exciting.

[nicksaviking]

Unless it's some surprisingly big name who is a year-in year-out reliable stud, I don't want to hand over the closer gig to any free agent.

Relievers rarely have similar years back to back. Their small sample sizes, transient nature and lack of a third pitch tend to make them more unpredictable than other baseball players. In 2022 the high leverage relievers should = whomever is currently the hottest pitchers RIGHT NOW; not last year, or whomever is paid the most.

[Brock Beauchamp]

29 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Unless it's some surprisingly big name who is a year-in year-out reliable stud, I don't want to hand over the closer gig to any free agent.

Relievers rarely have similar years back to back. Their small sample sizes, transient nature and lack of a third pitch tend to make them more unpredictable than other baseball players. In 2022 the high leverage relievers should = whomever is currently the hottest pitchers RIGHT NOW; not last year, or whomever is paid the most.

I think handing the closer job to anyone is kinda dumb given the fact Rogers is left-handed. Go find a good/great right-hander and do a time share based on matchup.

[Andrew Mahlke]

I would split it between Rogers and Ryan Tepera based on matchup

[Rosterman]

Fact: The Twins have decent set-up candidates.

 

Dream: Could Alcala develop into the clser role...as early as 2022?

 

Fact: You don't need an expensive, lights-out closer if you aren't going to play .500 ball or better. If the closer will get you to that level and keep you there, spend the money.

 

Question: Are closers good long-term deals? Do they flame out? Do most closers have a 3-5 year lifespan, at best?

 

Wondering: Is Joe Ryan really a top of the rotation arm, or can he get read and be better suited to the closer role with his mix of pitches.

 

Knowledge: I'm sure the Twins are watching closely the situation with Rogers, The pain is, if the Twins don't offer arbitrration, they basically can't resign him, correct...for the lowly amount another team might.

[Doctor Gast]

3 hours ago, Andrew Mahlke said:

I would split it between Rogers and Ryan Tepera based on matchup

Why do you pick Tepera? Just curious

 

[Andrew Mahlke]

4 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Why do you pick Tepera? Just curious

 

In 2021 he had an ERA of 2.79, which is already considered elite. Even at this elite level, Tepera got unlucky. His xERA was 2.50 and his xwOBA was .248. These are both in the 96th percentile of all pitchers. Of relief pitchers with at least 60 innings pitched in 2021, there were only 6 with a lower xERA than Tepera.

Another thing Tepera excels at is getting swings and misses. His whiff rate was in the 96th percentile, and his K% was just over 30%, good enough to be in the 88th percentile of all pitchers. When I first looked at his pitch profile, his fastball velocity, spin rate, and his curveball spin rate are all about league average. So I wondered, what makes him so special?

Tepera has a very good slider, throwing it nearly 45% of the time in 2021, up from just over 5% in 2020. His whiff rate on his slider was nearly 51%, meaning that over half of the time batters would swing at it they would swing and miss. This is extremely good. Another thing that jumps out at me about Tepera’s slider is that since 2019, he is getting roughly 0.7 feet more of extension on his slider, and since then his xwOBA on that pitch has gone way down.

 

This is from a forum I posted a couple weeks ago. Hope this helps

[Sousy]

If Taylor Rogers is available, I’m on board just for the gimmick.