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A 21-22 Offseason Idea


TheLeviathan

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Full transparency: This is not a team intending to compete in 2022.  This team is loading up for 2023.

Trades and Extensions:

Sign Byron Buxton to a 7 year, 119M contract with incentives

Trade with Florida Marlins - Mitch Garver for SP Sixto Sanchez 

Trade with New York Mets - Josh Donaldson (plus 14M spread over two years) for RP Jose Butto

Let Colome walk.  Release Austidillo, Refsnyder, Minaya, and Cave.

Free Agency: 

Sign Corey Seager a 5 year 27M contract to play shortstop

Sign Michael Pineda back to a 2 year 24M contract with incentives

Sign Jon Gray to a 3 year 45M contract

Sign Sandy Leon to a 1 year, 2M contract

Sign Leury Garcia to a 1 year 5M contract

Sign Corey Knebel to a 3 year 24M contract

Sign Ehire Adrianza to a 2 year, 3M contract

Lineup/Defense

C - Jeffers  500k

1B - Kiriloff  500k

2B - Polanco 5.5M

SS - Seager 27M

3B - Arraez 2M

LF - Rooker 500k

CF - Buxton 17M

RF - Kepler 6.75M

DH - Sano 9.25M

Bench - Gordon 500k

Bench - Sandy Leon 2M

Bench - Leury Garcia 5M

Bench - Garlick or Larnach 500k

Bench - Adrianza 1.5M

Regular Lineup - Arraez-Buxton-Seager-Polanco-Kiriloff-Sano-Kepler-Rooker-Jeffers

Rotation/Bullpen

SP - Gray 15M

SP - Ryan 500k 

SP - Ober 500k

SP - Pineda 12M

SP - Sixto Sanchez 500k

CL - Rogers 6.7M

BP - Alcala 500k

BP - Duffey 3.7M

BP - Theilbar 1.2M

BP - Knebel 8M

BP - Dobnak 800k

BP - Gant 3.7

Total Salary: 138.6M  (Including the 7M deferred)

Rotation Depth: Gant, Dobnak, Smeltzer, Balazovic, Winder, Duran, SWR 

Bullpen Depth: Butto, Thorpe, Moran, Stashak, Strotman? Other assorted AA and AAA guys

OF Depth: Larnach needs to hit himself into a job. Marten should be a guy looking to get the job in LF.  As soon as mid-summer.  Almost the entire bench, plus Kiriloff and Arraez can also play in the OF.  

IF Depth - Adrianza is a jack of all trades, Gordon as well.  Being a lefty and a switch hitter gives some options for lineups.  Royce Lewis and Jose Miranda should be in this conversation mid-summer as well.

Catching depth: Leon exists to give Ben Rotrevedt time to be the long-term backup.  

 

The idea here is that 2022 is a transition year.  So, let Rooker/Larnach and Jeffers and Arraez play. Martin is going to take 2B or LF eventually.  Lewis and Miranda are going to be up to take over other positions eventually.  The team is strong up the middle, depth is better, and the team is primed for a 2023 coming out party.  Ditto the rotation - Gallen, Sanchez, Ryan, Ober, and the fleet of young arms gives this team options and upside.  Bullpen is stabilized.

 

By September 1 I’d love to see this group:  Seager-Buxton-Polanco-Kiriloff--Marten-Larnach-Miranda-Kepler-Jeffers  with a rotation of Gray-Ryan-Ober-Sanchez-Duran/Balazovic  That group is an upgrade here or there in 2023 from being a real force if we develop our talented youngsters.

 

 

 

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It's a good plan.  Well thought out and well laid out.  I have a couple suggestions of what I would do instead:

I keep Donaldson and trade Arraez to the A's in a package for Frankie Montas.  I keep Garver, and trade Jeffers and Larnach to the Marlins for Sandy Alcantara.  I would still be interested in signing Jon Gray/Mike Pineda to the above mentioned contracts.  I'd also consider Eduardo Rodriguez as a FA.  But I add one of those three guys.  I prefer Rodriguez first, Gray second and Pineda third.  Maybe I sign someone like Andrew Heaney cheap.  because of the dependence on two young pitchers in Ryan and Ober, the Twins will need to bring in "several" arms and consider a 6-man rotation to limit the innings of Ryan and Ober.

Rotation:  Alcantara, Montas, (Gray/Pineda, Eduardo Rodriguez), Ryan, Ober.  (Depth:  Dobnak, Balazovic, Winder).  

I love the idea of signing Knebel.  he and Rogers are my Co-Closers.  

I trade Lewis Thorpe .8 trade value to the Cardinals for SS Paul DeJong 1.0 value (Baseball trade Values).

C  Garver

1B  Kiriloff

2B  Polanco

3B  Donaldson

SS  DeJong

LF  Austin Martin/Jose Miranda

CF  Buxton

RF  Kepler

DH  Sano

I save the Cory Seager money (I think he resigns with the Dodgers).  Keeping Donaldson still allows me to sign Knebel.

I think a team constituted like this can compete for another division title and maybe even win a darn playoff game.  But I still like what you put together as well.  

 

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I wouldn't trade Garver yet. Jeffers hasn't proven he can hit big league pitching yet and Garver has. I would be looking for trading partner for Arraez and Kepler. I think Seager stays put.

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6 hours ago, Andrew Mahlke said:

I don't think the Marlins do Sanchez for Garver straight up. Sanchez has the potential to be a top 10-20 pitcher in the league so we would most likely have to give up a top 5 prospect.

I do agree that Sanchez has real upside, but catching is a market with a real scarcity and Florida has openly stated their interest in improving there.  I can see the argument that there would need to be more with Garver, but I disagree it would be that imbalanced.

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6 hours ago, Karbo said:

I wouldn't trade Garver yet. Jeffers hasn't proven he can hit big league pitching yet and Garver has. I would be looking for trading partner for Arraez and Kepler. I think Seager stays put.

All fair.  If Seager stays I go after Story next.  The Twins have the money to pull this off.

I think Arraez and Kepler have such low trade value relative to their contracts that trading them would be poor asset management.

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Nice work - you have some interesting ideas, particularly picking up Corey Knebel as a potential closer.  Add Ryan Tepera to the pen and you've markedly improved a glaring weakness.

And you're on the right track in trading Garver to Miami for rotation help, but there's no reason to shoot so low(not that Sanchez is not a top prospect, but we have enough prospects).  We need top-of-the rotation starters, like Alcantara or Lopez, while the Marlins need OF help in addition to catching.   What about Garver(or Jeffers who I think would garner more interest from a young team on the rise) and Kepler(or Arraez).  Throw in one of our top 10 prospects or Larnach, and I think the fish would bite.

Can't get too excited about Gray as our top FA signing.   Instead of a pricey FA SS like Seager, spend the money on a Rodon or Ray or Stroman or Gausman.  We can fill the shortstop hole with a good fielding SS for a fraction of the price Seager would cost, leaving $25MM/yr for one of the four listed above.  Either Thor, Gray or Pineda(in that order) would slot in  as a solid #3, giving us one of the stronger rotations in the league.

Of course, if the FO has no intention of contending in 2022, then your plan is more likely(sans Seager)  but do you really think the 2023 Twins would contend for the playoffs?  I just don't have enough faith in this org's prospect development program to count on at least 3 of our young pitchers to all be positive contributors in a 2023 playoff push.  You have to remember that our lineup for the next 2-3 years is competitive with Bux, JD, Sano, Polanco, Kirillof forming a pretty solid core.   Why waste this core in another rebuild?

 

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Love it. I’m pretty much in alignment with you with this plan. We need to sign one of the premiere SS free agents long term and let the chips fall later with Martin and Lewis. 

I think you’re selling this roster short to be honest. Looks like a competitive roster that can compete for at least a wild card to me…Massive upgrade at SS, 3 pitchers who can slot ahead of Ober and Ryan. I give up predicting what relievers are going to do. For all I know that cobbled together group is a top 10 or bottom 10 unit. I’m not a huge fan of Arraez at 3B and Rooker in LF, but we have reinforcements who can end up playing at those positions. And there’s room in the budget to acquire help at the trade deadline if we’re above .500. 

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2 hours ago, mike8791 said:

Nice work - you have some interesting ideas, particularly picking up Corey Knebel as a potential closer.  Add Ryan Tepera to the pen and you've markedly improved a glaring weakness.

And you're on the right track in trading Garver to Miami for rotation help, but there's no reason to shoot so low(not that Sanchez is not a top prospect, but we have enough prospects).  We need top-of-the rotation starters, like Alcantara or Lopez, while the Marlins need OF help in addition to catching.   What about Garver(or Jeffers who I think would garner more interest from a young team on the rise) and Kepler(or Arraez).  Throw in one of our top 10 prospects or Larnach, and I think the fish would bite.

Can't get too excited about Gray as our top FA signing.   Instead of a pricey FA SS like Seager, spend the money on a Rodon or Ray or Stroman or Gausman.  We can fill the shortstop hole with a good fielding SS for a fraction of the price Seager would cost, leaving $25MM/yr for one of the four listed above.  Either Thor, Gray or Pineda(in that order) would slot in  as a solid #3, giving us one of the stronger rotations in the league.

Of course, if the FO has no intention of contending in 2022, then your plan is more likely(sans Seager)  but do you really think the 2023 Twins would contend for the playoffs?  I just don't have enough faith in this org's prospect development program to count on at least 3 of our young pitchers to all be positive contributors in a 2023 playoff push.  You have to remember that our lineup for the next 2-3 years is competitive with Bux, JD, Sano, Polanco, Kirillof forming a pretty solid core.   Why waste this core in another rebuild?

 

I wouldn't fault anyone for their desire to spend more on pitching.  I do like Thor as well but I could see that getting dicey.  My idea is to float in under the top tier and snipe guys early so you aren't in bidding wars.  And, personally speaking, I'd rather put 27M into an every day player.  For 42M I have Seager and Gray, but the alternative of Rodon and (insert 10M SS here) doesn't sound nearly as good to me.  Especially since I have some confidence a few of these young guys are going to stick.

If I thought the Twins could get Alcantera with Garver, I'd be all over that.  I think Sixto Sanchez is a swing for the fences kind of addition.

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On 10/21/2021 at 10:25 AM, Andrew Mahlke said:

I don't think the Marlins do Sanchez for Garver straight up. Sanchez has the potential to be a top 10-20 pitcher in the league so we would most likely have to give up a top 5 prospect.

Sixto Sanchez underwent capsule repair shoulder surgery with additional cleanup. There is no timetable on him and the chances he returns at his pre-surgery performance levels are poor if he ever returns to MLB caliber at all. This isn't UCL surgery, this is shoulder surgery which often ruins pitching careers.

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6 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Definitely a lot of work put into stuff like this and I can appreciate it, I just don't think it's realistic for the Twins to spend $140MM in a season they don't expect to compete (by your words).

I think it's a reasonable price range relative to past seasons.  A bump for sure.

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Levi, this is extremely well thought out and practical! Bless you and your hard work to put this together and being more in touch with some prosoects and lesser known players that I'm just not in touch with, Jose Butto from the Mets as an example. And I agree with Vanimal tbat what you've presented may be better than an "also ran" roster. But I'd like to offer a critique, but not a criticism. Just a few thoughts and questions.

1] I think you are just about spot-on with Buxton.

2] Maybe it's just me, but I think Garver, BIG bat, decent defense, experienced, great team control, might be worth more than Sanchez. And then I read where Sanchez is coming off surgery. So with my belief in Garver, even without surgery for Sanchez, I'm thinking a sweetener for someone better and more proven. 

And while I don't want to move him as I think he bas a great future, if I'm Miami, and building, might I be more interested in Jeffers? Or Jeffers and a sweetener for one of my more proven arms? I'm just thinking being more aggressive for Alcacantara or Lopez, etc, for Garver/Jeffers and a sweetener. Miami may be looking more for youth and potential.

3] Donaldson to the Mets makes so much sense it's scary. I think you nailed it. I really hate to lose him for 2022, and what he could add to the lineup, but your proposal makes a lot of sense for both teams. Especially if a catcher and other to Miami works out.

4] Doesn't Seager re-sign with the Dogers? Speculation. Is Story the best 2nd choice? I worry about the Colorado factor. What about Baez? I know there  is some negatives around him, but nothing really bad. He might come a little cheaper.

5] Cool with Gray. But would Stoman for a few $M be out of reach? It still wouldn't blow your final numbers out of the water and makes sense to me.

6] LF is kind of a potential wasteland with Rooker and others and I get that! You're looking forward. Larnach could settle that spot, and Rooker could adapt and surprise. Hell, could be be any worse than Young or Willingham if he hits? But work with me here brother, you listed MARTEN as an option by mid-season. I'm ASSUMING you are speaking about Martin and not FA Marte, right? Just want to be clear.

7]  Love your pen, but head and heart says protect Minaya if you can afford to 40 man wise. 

Again, just a few questions and a critique. Great job!

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9 hours ago, Tim said:

5/135 for Seager, might need to add 3 years and 100 million to that

Maybe.  Projections are difficult but but what you're proposing is not a common contract given out anymore.  

I think people should really look back over the last 5 years of free agents.  Seager isn't Machado or Harper or Cheatin' Gerrit Cole.  He's a tier lower and my contract reflects that tier.

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13 hours ago, DocBauer said:

Levi, this is extremely well thought out and practical! Bless you and your hard work to put this together and being more in touch with some prosoects and lesser known players that I'm just not in touch with, Jose Butto from the Mets as an example. And I agree with Vanimal tbat what you've presented may be better than an "also ran" roster. But I'd like to offer a critique, but not a criticism. Just a few thoughts and questions.

1] I think you are just about spot-on with Buxton.

2] Maybe it's just me, but I think Garver, BIG bat, decent defense, experienced, great team control, might be worth more than Sanchez. And then I read where Sanchez is coming off surgery. So with my belief in Garver, even without surgery for Sanchez, I'm thinking a sweetener for someone better and more proven. 

And while I don't want to move him as I think he bas a great future, if I'm Miami, and building, might I be more interested in Jeffers? Or Jeffers and a sweetener for one of my more proven arms? I'm just thinking being more aggressive for Alcacantara or Lopez, etc, for Garver/Jeffers and a sweetener. Miami may be looking more for youth and potential.

3] Donaldson to the Mets makes so much sense it's scary. I think you nailed it. I really hate to lose him for 2022, and what he could add to the lineup, but your proposal makes a lot of sense for both teams. Especially if a catcher and other to Miami works out.

4] Doesn't Seager re-sign with the Dogers? Speculation. Is Story the best 2nd choice? I worry about the Colorado factor. What about Baez? I know there  is some negatives around him, but nothing really bad. He might come a little cheaper.

5] Cool with Gray. But would Stoman for a few $M be out of reach? It still wouldn't blow your final numbers out of the water and makes sense to me.

6] LF is kind of a potential wasteland with Rooker and others and I get that! You're looking forward. Larnach could settle that spot, and Rooker could adapt and surprise. Hell, could be be any worse than Young or Willingham if he hits? But work with me here brother, you listed MARTEN as an option by mid-season. I'm ASSUMING you are speaking about Martin and not FA Marte, right? Just want to be clear.

7]  Love your pen, but head and heart says protect Minaya if you can afford to 40 man wise. 

Again, just a few questions and a critique. Great job!

On each point:

2) I think the conversation with Miami starts with feeling out who they like and who they are prepared to offer.  They clearly want catching and we have it.  They clearly have pitching and we want it.  So the framework is there, how it hashes out from there is pretty hard to predict.  Sixto's injury is worrisome, but what he showed when he first came up was brilliant.  It's a risky move to be sure.

4) Maybe he does.  If I'm the Dodgers I could see them keeping Turner and Taylor and rolling with those two instead.  But yes, the possibility definitely exists that he is retained by LAD.  I like Story and then Simien in that order.  I like Correa, of course, but this entire plan is based on going under where the heavy bidding starts and sniping guys who won't be number 1 on all the shopping lists.  I see Stroman the same way even though I really like him.

6) My brain has this weird thing about Austin Martin.  Every time I want to say something about him my brain says "His name isn't spelled how you think!" and then I just make some stupid thing up and confuse myself and others, clearly.  I meant the kid we got for Berrios.  I think he's a future LFer for this team and that is the dude I want there down the stretch.

 

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16 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

I think the conversation with Miami starts with feeling out who they like and who they are prepared to offer.  They clearly want catching and we have it.  They clearly have pitching and we want it.  So the framework is there, how it hashes out from there is pretty hard to predict. 

So true. Since this time a year ago, I have been pushing for an overpay (according to some) for Sandy Alcantara. Why? Alcantara pitches a ton of innings and is consistently a decent pitcher, which is somewhat similar to Jose Berrios. I have no idea what Miami would do but I'm offering Jeffers, Larnach, Celestino, Sands, Dobnak, and Canterino for Alcantara and Meyer. This may be totally bogus but I'm open to whatever brings pitching. Along the same line, Oakland needs a call as well. I'm wondering if Arraez, Rooker, Duffey, and Cavaco could pry away Montas or is that laughed off? The trading front could bring two really stable pitchers for around $10-11 million, which is a good thing for the budget.

I love how steady Seager is at shortstop and at the plate, but he will get at least 6 years and probably $30 million per year. The Twins might want to go simple at shortstop, like Galvis, but their strategy at SS will clarify if Buxton is signed. 

Count me in on Adrianza - steady and predictable production with class. Knebel or Graveman are solid adds to the bullpen worth a shot at around the price used in the post.

The offseason strategy still depends on the budget but most of us expect around $130 million, even if we want around $150 million.

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On 10/22/2021 at 6:14 PM, TheLeviathan said:

I think it's a reasonable price range relative to past seasons.  A bump for sure.

I think your price is totally reasonable if the Twins are expecting to compete. If they're not expecting to compete, that's a different story. The Pohlad family runs the Twins very much like a typical business and as business owners, they seem quite conservative. A poor peforming team at $140MM is going to operate in the red and the Pohlad family seems unwilling to operate that way.

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If the Twins decide that their 2022 team cannot be competitive, then I would expect a budget closer to $100 million or even lower. Any budget under $130 million sends a message to a degree, unless the Twins trade Donaldson without including any money.

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