Max Kepler: Trade or Keep?

[Vanimal46]

Kepler was a popular trade piece in our hypothetical offers to acquire better talent over the last year or so. People in the industry like KLaw are still bullish about his potential to grow.

 

He's maintained his value from a WAR perspective every season so far 2-2.5 bWAR. Overall, a solid player.

 

However, from an offensive standpoint he's been stagnant. No real improvements in BA, OBP or SLG from his first full season until now.

 

With Kiriloff on the way, is Kepler worth keeping? Would the Twins be better off trading him for help at other positions of need?

[jimmer]

Keep

[Jacksson]

Not until Kiriloff is at AAA and is pushing Kepler out of future plans.

[Puckett34]

Personally, I'd keep him.   I think he has enough versatility in the OF, 1B, DH to have value on the team.   Kiriloff is no sure thing, not that Kepler is.  But I'd keep him around.

[Battle ur tail off]

Keep. What are you going to get for him? More lottery tickets? A bird in hand is worth 2 in the bush. Crap return I'd rather keep him. Unless you can use him to get major league talent that is controllable. I don't want to move him for minor league turds. 

[SF Twins Fan]

I would say keep him unless he's a big piece for a true ace. I'm not sold on Rooker with his strikeout rate, so you could always move Kirilloff to 1B and keep Kepler in RF. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

He's still got 4 years of team control, but he should be arbitration eligible this winter as a super 2. Plouffe got close to $20 mil total through 4 years of arbitration.

[jkcarew]

Probably not yet.  I'm confident his game will not regress...not a FA until 2023, and we don't have good alternative options for 2019.  Maybe after next season?  In the meantime, we get another season to see if he can take that next step.

[Vanimal46]

I ask the question for a couple of reasons...

 

1. Corner OFs are a dime a dozen and historically in Target Field you don't need a player with a ton of range at RF.

 

2. I'm not sure Kepler's WAR value translates to 1B. As we see with Mauer, you can be one of the best defensive 1B in all of baseball, but if you're a .730 OPS player you're average or below average in the MLB.

 

Still, with his years of control left and ability to be a good MLB player, he could be valuable in a trade for pitching, or a premium position like SS or CF.

[RatherBeGolfing]

Depends on the package, which I know is a total cop out but to me, he's truly a guy that I would like to keep but also wouldn't be heartbroken if he were dealt too, it would depend on what we got back.

[Mike Sixel]

Him and Garver and a medium SP for JT.....who says no? I think that's not enough for JT.....throw in one of the lottery ticket types? Still probably not enough.....

 

Kiriloff, Wade, Rooker, Baddoo, random FA.....all are options next year or the year after......

 

I doubt his value is HIGH right now, but if you can package him for a legit SS or C that is around for 3+ years, I do that. Lewis or that SS can always move to OF or 3B.......or even 2B......

[TheLeviathan]

Keep.  His value is weak and there is still upside.  Those aren't the kind of guys I'm keen on dealing unless someone really likes him.

[Franz]

Keep.

 

The focus of this thread has been hitting. Regardless of what he has done at the plate, Kepler is a plus right fielder and even a slightly-plus center fielder (source: baseball-reference.com, "fielding runs above average"). Sooner or later we must face the fact that right now the Twins are a poor fielding team, and there isn't enough hitting or nearly enough pitching to make up for that shortcoming.

 

I firmly believe that Kepler also has upside in hitting that, combined with his fielding and durability, make him a cornerstone of any future Twins roster.

 

If Kiriloff brings a plus bat and glove to the majors (not just AAA), great...but in that event why not just use Kepler as a left-side platoon for Buxton in CF and (dare we hope) Rooker at 1B?

[Doomtints]

I don't think he currently has much trade value, and the Twins could do a hell of a lot worse. Keep him for now.

[ChrisKnutson]

How about “Jake Cave: Trade or Keep???”

[Battle ur tail off]

 

How about “Jake Cave: Trade or Keep???”

 

Doesn't matter. PTBNL is all he is worth. Keep or demote to minor leagues is all you have for options with him. You guys want to trade people, you have to bring something of value if you want anything worthwhile back. Otherwise, it is just a exercise in futility.

 

 

 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Everyone is available for the right price. That being said, I’m not shopping him because he’s my fallback for Buxton in ‘19.

[Winston Smith]

Like all palyers you make the trade if it makes the team better long term. Of course, the catch 22 is will the front office recognize what and what won't make the team better?

[h2oface]

Of course the Twins should just get rid of him, and let him be a star for another team... like Ortiz and Gomez and Hicks and Garza and Loshe and ....... fill in the others. It's part of the plan to always stock prospects and wait until they almost make it and then do it all again. The endless loop.

[Lonestar]

 

1. Corner OFs are a dime a dozen ...
 

 

Why do you say that?

 

Left Fielders
Gregor Blanco (35), Michael Brantley (32), Melky Cabrera (34), Rajai Davis (38), Daniel Descalso (32), Brett Gardner (35), Craig Gentry, Marwin Gonzalez (30), Jon Jay (33), Cameron Maybin (32), Gerardo Parra (32)

Right Fielders
Jose Bautista (38), Lonnie Chisenhall (30), Carlos Gomez (33), Carlos Gonzalez (33), Curtis Granderson (38),
Brandon Guyer (33), Bryce Harper (26), Matt Joyce (34), Nick Markakis (35), Andrew McCutchen (32), Hunter Pence (36)

[Mike Sixel]

You know, as the backup for CF....he has some value...and I don't trust Buxton or Cave....

 

Plus, I think he should get time at 1B when Austin and Sano and Garver aren't there.

 

BTW, maybe they should move Garver now, before concussions rob all his health....

[h2oface]

Kirilloff.

 

One r, two l's and two f's.

 

May as learn to spell it right, right Maurer.........

[alarp33]

You don't improve a team by trading the young assets when their value is at its lowest

[Nine of twelve]

 

Depends on the package, which I know is a total cop out but to me, he's truly a guy that I would like to keep but also wouldn't be heartbroken if he were dealt too, it would depend on what we got back.

This summarizes it. Trade any player(s), ANY player(s), if the value received is greater than the value of the player(s).

[VATwinsFan]

Leaning toward trade if we can get a closer (Hildenberger ain't it IMHO) or a reasonably decent number 3/4 starter.

[Mike Sixel]

Heh, don't trade young guys that are down, they have no value. Don't trade young guys that are good, they are part of the future. don't trade minor leaguers for veterans, because then you can't sustain competitiveness. Don't sign SPs to long term deals, too risky.....Don't sign position players to long term deals, because they won't be good at the end......

 

How do people expect to get a good team here?

[Vanimal46]

Max Kepler and lowest value doesn't make sense. This season he's produced the highest fWAR and bWAR of his career.

[yarnivek1972]

This summarizes it. Trade any player(s), ANY player(s), if the value received is greater than the value of the player(s).

If your perceived value of the player(s) coming back is greater than that of those going out, you maybe need to step back and ask why the other team is making that trade.

[Mike Sixel]

 

If your perceived value of the player(s) coming back is greater than that of those going out, you maybe need to step back and ask why the other team is making that trade.

 

context....and present vs future value....and relative positional scarcity among the teams....

 

No trade is even in present value......well, not on purpose.

[Vanimal46]

Why do you say that?

 

Left Fielders

Gregor Blanco (35), Michael Brantley (32), Melky Cabrera (34), Rajai Davis (38), Daniel Descalso (32), Brett Gardner (35), Craig Gentry, Marwin Gonzalez (30), Jon Jay (33), Cameron Maybin (32), Gerardo Parra (32)

 

Right Fielders

Jose Bautista (38), Lonnie Chisenhall (30), Carlos Gomez (33), Carlos Gonzalez (33), Curtis Granderson (38),

Brandon Guyer (33), Bryce Harper (26), Matt Joyce (34), Nick Markakis (35), Andrew McCutchen (32), Hunter Pence (36)

There are people on this list that produce just as much if not more WAR than Kepler this season.

 

Corner OF is not a premium defensive position and lots of players are capable of playing the position on a given day. It's one of the few spots on the field where you can sacrifice defensive ability for a really good bat.