At what point do we start to believe in this year's Twins?

[Doomtints]

I must admit, what they did in Baltimore has started to get me a bit excited. 

 

I'm still skeptical that they will finish .500.  At what point do we start to treat this bag of rugrats as serious contenders?

[Brock Beauchamp]

Unless the team goes something like 8-2 in their next ten, I'll start to believe some time near the end of June. They have a lot of games strung together with few days off in the next month. If their pitching staff is going to tire and implode, this is the stretch it will happen.

 

I'm quite confident in the offense. It won't be world-beating but I suspect it will continue to take small steps forward as the season goes along.

[Mill1634]

I'm reserving it until they get through the halfway point of June. If they continue to play the way they have there is no reason to think it isn't possible this team makes the playoffs.  

[Dozier's Glorious Hair]

I'm just enjoying the ride, brother. 

[gocgo]

I'm a believer now. This team has several game changers.  I'm not saying they will win it all, but they will be competitive enough to play meaningful games in September and that is a welcomed relief after last year.

[wsnydes]

I probably won't really believe until July.  There are lots of encouraging signs from improved fundamentals (resulting in fewer errors defensively and fewer missed opportunities on the bases), improved defense (better footwork and positioning - see fundamentals), and the younger guys carrying their weight on offense.  I'm still very concerned about the pitching overall.  The pitching, and Molitor's use of said pitching, is what will be their limiting factor.  I still think Buxton will be fine and when he starts to click, the offense will improve another notch.  

 

I just need to see more from them against teams outside of the division and improved play at home.  I think they're trending in the right direction though.  Many of the little things that I was hoping to see are occurring.

[amjgt]

 

 

They’re not going away,” Showalter said of the Twins, who have now spent more days in first place than any AL Central team, and more days than any year since their most recent division title in 2010. “If they continue to pitch, they’re going to be tough. That’s the team I thought they were going to be last year.”

 

“It’s a well-thought-out roster. You can see the way it fits, with the switch hitters and the defenders and the runners and the way they can move the parts around,” Showalter said.

 

Good enough for me.

[amjgt]

What are we being asked to believe in?

 

That this team will play meaningful games in September? I believe

That this team can make the playoffs? I'm close

That this team can win the division? Shakier

That this team can win the World Series? I'm not even close

[drivlikejehu]

At some point, they could have a realistic playoff shot just based on the number of games they've already won. That could happen with a hot streak in the immediate future, or a more drawn out time period of above .500 play, or it could never happen.

 

That's a slightly different question than whether the team is actually good. Their BaseRuns winning % is 12th in MLB, 23-20, which indicates that sequencing hasn't been the predominant factor in the team's record. The big data point that sticks out is the league average run prevention - I think that's unlikely to hold up over the course of the season. And of course the Twins schedule has been easier than average, though not to an extreme degree.

 

[gunnarthor]

I think we can stay competitive in the AL Central. We're not as good as the Yankees and Astros but we might be able to stay in the AL Central and/or wild card races.

 

Here's a fun stat. After starting 2 for 50 in his first 15 games, Buxton, in his last 25 games, has hit .260/.365/.384. His strike out rate in those games is still a bit high at 27% but his walk rate is a very solid 14%. The Twins are 17-8 since he started hitting.  I think the offense can carry the team for the most part. They probably aren't going to win 90 games but 85 seems doable.  That OF defense is great - there's no wonder Santana and Berrios aren't giving up many hits, if it stays in the yard, those guys are catching it. That's legit.  Pitching is the great concern of course but we'll see. There is reason for optimism.

[Vanimal46]

I'd be a bigger believer if they made some moves to help out the rotation.... The offense is legit. The pitching is not legit. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

After starting 2 for 50 in his first 15 games, Buxton,

Hey, he wasn't THAT bad.  (He was 4 for 49)

[USAFChief]

I felt in spring training the position player core of this team was ready to contend, and nothing has changed my mind.

 

Go get some pitching help.  It'd be a crime not to.  

[rghrbek]

It's ok to be excited.  I am excited, as the games are much more interesting to watch this year.

 

Am I a believer?  No.  Too many holes in the rotation.  Sano is coming back to earth with that .473 babip, but will still be our best hitter.  It would help if Dozier would start contributing more.  I am skeptical that Rosario, Castro (Gimenez), Buxton will ever contribute more than they take away at the plate...

 

Defense is real solid right now.

[gil4]

 

Showalter:  “If they continue to pitch, they’re going to be tough."

That is the question, isn't it. I don't see anything going on with the hitting that screams "unsustainable," and there are a couple of spots that I think could improve a bit. The pitching is more of a mixed bag. I don't expect them to keep it up, and the real question is how much will they regress? Will the starters continue to go deep enough into games to keep the bullpen from collapsing?

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

It's ok to be excited.  I am excited, as the games are much more interesting to watch this year.

 

Am I a believer?  No.  Too many holes in the rotation.  Sano is coming back to earth with that .473 babip, but will still be our best hitter.  It would help if Dozier would start contributing more.  I am skeptical that Rosario, Castro (Gimenez), Buxton will ever contribute more than they take away at the plate...

 

Defense is real solid right now.

I'm with you except for the Buxton part. If gunnarthor's stats (comment #10) are correct, a .749 OPS (with a .365 OBP!) is plenty to keep his elite defense in the lineup.

It's not the OPS we had hoped for from Buck, but a guy with a .365 OBP stays in almost any team's lineup, even if the defense is not elite.

Now, will he be that guy going forward?

[spanman2]

 

I'm just enjoying the ride, brother. 

For me it is the 4th of July timeframe.  Like you I am enjoying the ride.  Fantastic season thus far.

[gocgo]

 

I think we can stay competitive in the AL Central. We're not as good as the Yankees and Astros but we might be able to stay in the AL Central and/or wild card races.

 

Here's a fun stat. After starting 2 for 50 in his first 15 games, Buxton, in his last 25 games, has hit .260/.365/.384. His strike out rate in those games is still a bit high at 27% but his walk rate is a very solid 14%. The Twins are 17-8 since he started hitting.  I think the offense can carry the team for the most part. They probably aren't going to win 90 games but 85 seems doable.  That OF defense is great - there's no wonder Santana and Berrios aren't giving up many hits, if it stays in the yard, those guys are catching it. That's legit.  Pitching is the great concern of course but we'll see. There is reason for optimism.

The defense is also the reason that Santana & company are able to go deeper into games and save the bullpen.  Making the plays that they should make along with a few that they shouldn't makes for shorter innings.  It has a domino effect.

[Ebby Calvin Laloosh]

They have to play a stretch of like 45 games in 45 days coming up. That stretch is going to show us a lot. They are going to need a #5 starter consistently for the first time this year. I'm not worried too much about the offense or the defense, stop me if you've heard this before, it's the pitching I'm concerned about. I'm also curious to see how Molitor does managing over a long stretch with few to no off days. If they can stay near .500 for the next month and a half, I think I will officially "believe."

[Han Joelo]

I believed in March. Of 2015.

[gil4]

 

I'm just enjoying the ride, brother. 

I accidentally let my MLB TV subscription auto-renew.  I have probably already watched more games this year than last. 

[bighat]

 

I'm just enjoying the ride, brother. 

 

Me too.  I don't know how they're doing it, I know they've got some issues....right now I'm just surfing the wave!

[Mr. Brooks]

I haven't looked today, but as of a couple days ago, the Twins were leading baseball in DRS.

Of the last 10 teams to lead baseball in DRS, 9 of them won 90+ games - and the one that didn't won 85.

Three of those teams also won the WS.

This defense is legit, and defense is a legit formula for winning. I'm sold on this being an 85+ win team, which is shocking to me. I had them at 73 coming into the year.

[amjgt]

 

That is the question, isn't it. I don't see anything going on with the hitting that screams "unsustainable," and there are a couple of spots that I think could improve a bit. The pitching is more of a mixed bag. I don't expect them to keep it up, and the real question is how much will they regress? Will the starters continue to go deep enough into games to keep the bullpen from collapsing?

 

Absolutely. That's the question. 

 

Not many people would say that they expect our pitching to keep this up. HOWEVER. We don't need it to. If our pitching kept this up we'd win 95 games. And actually, if anything, I expect our hitting to improve. Sano and to a much lesser extent, Vargas and Grossman are the only three that most people would say have outperformed expectations. 

 

Our pitching can regress some and we could legitimately still expect to be a strong contender for a playoff spot.

[jimbo92107]

Quick impressions of expectation / reality so far this season:

Pitching

expected/reality so far

 

Santana: worse/better - who expected Erv to be this good, even after a great second half?

Hughes: better/worse - trying to hold on with less and less velocity, more arm troubles

Gibson: better/worse - needs to assert himself on the inside half. Bullpen?

Santiago better/same - outcomes seem random, an enigma

Berrios: better/much better - not a fluke, this is a star emerging

Mejia: better/better - various experts predict he will become a horse, eventually. Looks legit.

 

Duffey: better/better - found a better angle to pitch righties, now the best in the pen. Starter?

Rogers: better/better - gradually stronger, improving his repertoire. At some point a starter candidate.

Belisle: same/same - known quantity, average quality.

Breslow: same/slightly better - lower arm angle and pivot stride makes movement, but control issues.

Haley: na/better - rule 5 guy has good zap, down plane. 

Kintzler: same/better - no big heater, but razor command of outside corner with his 2-seam.

Pressly: better/same - still inconsistent, but the stuff is still electric.

Wilk: bad/bad - we see flashes of dominance, but then he'll throw a cookie. Boom.

 

Position players

expected/reality so far

 

Castro: same/better - so much better than Suzuki. I forgot what a league average catcher looked like.

GiMENez: same/same - classic backup catcher, good glove, not much bat. Garver might do better.

Adrianza: na/better - unknown coming off injury, has been playing like a good starter. Great D.

Dozier: worse/worse - bat's been relatively cold so far. He sure got hot second half last year...

Escobar: same/worse - tough read, he's still a super-sub, but Granite might be better, cheaper.

Mauer: same/better - Mauer has made himself a gold glove 1B, and his hitting is better than last year.

Polanco: better/much better - start him, leave him. Makes plays in all aspects of the game. 

Sano: better/much better - leave him at 3rd, please! Learning to dominate the league. Fun to watch.

 

Buxton: better/better - don't expect sudden leaps in improvement. Great D, slowly improving offense.

Kepler: better/better - better and better every year, every month. Awesome to watch a star emerge.

Rosario: better/same - such talent, so little plate discipline. Eddie, walks are a good thing!!

 

Grossman: same/much better - was a 1st rounder. Finally looking like one?

Vargas: better/better - Vargas 2.0 has a short, compact swing, good glove at 1st. Mini Papi.

 

The team I just described (badly) is not a bad team, it's a team with potential to kick some butt. The starters are still dubious, but not at the top. Santana and Berrios should stay good. If Mejia continues to improve, that could give the Twins 3 horses in the starting 5. According to LaTroy Hawkins and Eddie Guardado, it's just a matter of time and learning to relax out there. 

 

Surprisingly good defense, surprisingly good offense, and just enough good pitching to keep them in games is what we've been seeing so far. Pretty soon the offense and defense won't be surprising. This is a team on the rise. 

[DaveW]

I believe.

The defense is elite.
The offense is solid

We have 3 solid SP, Mejia should be an OK #4. But 4 days out of the 5 we should be very competitive. Santana and Berrios thus far have been pretty much unbeatable.
Bullpen- This is what worries me the most.

But at the end of the day:

Other than Cleveland the AL Central is WEAK.
The AL east are juggernauts, and the west has the Stros and not much else IMO.

I believe they can stay in the hunt. At this point, I'd say anything less than 83 wins will be very disappointing.


My odds:

To win at least 75: 90%

To win at least 81: 65%
To win division: 20% 

To make the playoffs (WC or Division) 50%

To win pennant: 12.5%

To win world series: 5%
 

[Monkeypaws]

 

I felt in spring training the position player core of this team was ready to contend, and nothing has changed my mind.

 

Go get some pitching help.  It'd be a crime not to.  

 

Why not give AAA guys like Slegers and Wheeler a try?

 

What's the point of having a farm system if you never give guys a chance?

 

How bad would Slegers be? Gibson bad? Hughes bad? Meija-like? Never know until you give them a try.

 

Hildenberger has a sub 2 ERA for his entire minor league career, 6 teams, 3+ years. 

 

I'd like to see these guys get a shot before making trades.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I believe.

The defense is elite.

The offense is solid

We have 3 solid SP, Mejia should be an OK #4. But 4 days out of the 5 we should be very competitive. Santana and Berrios thus far have been pretty much unbeatable.

Bullpen- This is what worries me the most.

 

But at the end of the day:

Other than Cleveland the AL Central is WEAK.

The AL east are juggernauts, and the west has the Stros and not much else IMO.

I believe they can stay in the hunt. At this point, I'd say anything less than 83 wins will be very disappointing.

My odds:

To win at least 75: 90%

To win at least 81: 65%

To win division: 20% 

To make the playoffs (WC or Division) 50%

To win pennant: 12.5%

To win world series: 5%

 

the stain of 2016 aside, a 50/50 chance to get a wildcard/postseason berth this season sounds about right at this point!

[Craig Arko]

No later than Halloween.

[jokin]

 

 According to LaTroy Hawkins and Eddie Guardado, it's just a matter of time and learning to relax out there. 

 

Surprisingly good defense, surprisingly good offense, and just enough good pitching to keep them in games is what we've been seeing so far. Pretty soon the offense and defense won't be surprising. This is a team on the rise. 

 

Don't sell yourself short, great analysis. Think back to most of the last 6 seasons and all of the dirty looks, scowls, glares, grimaces & facepalms that a multitude of Twins pitchers, good and bad, made towards their defense,

 

gaffe after gaffe,

game after game.

 

You can see Twins pitchers relaxing more and more, with Santana showing the way in trusting the defense. Remember Duffey's last outing- when 15 out of 16 pitches he threw were strikes? How about yesterday vs. the Orioles, when Rogers, and then Kintzler, threw strike after strike, even in hitter's counts, with the game on the line?

 

Shoring up the pen and acquiring one more reliable veteran SP- and this team can compete all the way to game 162.