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Everything posted by Mill1634

  1. Ober clearly the winner here, with the limited sample of the healthy Kiriloff coming in a distant second.
  2. Hard for me to give the MIP award to a player who didn't even have the best season of his career. Polo was great, but we've seen (slightly) better version of this in 2019. Thielbar is the easy winner on my ballot.
  3. I don’t expect the twins to spend a ton of money on free agents for the 22 season. I think they’ll use it as an evaluation period for young players like Jose Miranda, Brent Rooker, Jeffers, Celestino on the bat side, and countless pitchers like Jordan, Strotman, Ryan, winder, Duran, etc. You may even see them give SWR, Martin, and Lewis a shot eventually. With that being said, I do expect them to bring in at least one more veteran starter to eat innings along with bringing back big Mike. A name I have my eye on is Alex Cobb, who much like ERod, has very good metrics.
  4. I understand wanting a veteran in the locker room, and while Maeda is that, English isn’t strong for him. It’s more difficult for a guy like that to mentor guys, so keeping Big Mike for a mentorship role is fine if there were truly not legit offers on the table. However, I find it difficult to believe that there were not offers on the table for him. At this point I think I’d give him whatever he’s making this year plus an 8M team option with a small buyout in 2023 to stick around as a MOR guy to stabilize the rotation. I do think it’s likely that we see Kenta moved this off-season, which makes me willing to do the extension even more. If we end up just holding Pineda for the year and letting him walk, I’m super disappointed and it’s an epic failure.
  5. Also, it's kind of weird that every talking head around the game was saying that the Twins held the keys to the deadline with all of the talent that they would have available, only for them to trade one good player at the deadline. Yes, Nelly was traded, but I don't count that "at the deadline." I really expected the FO to be more aggressive and was expecting one of Kepler/Buxton/Polanco/Maeda/JD to be moved today. It's quite possible that the Twins prices were too high, which make sense to a certain extent as they'll be able to move any of that group this off-season if they are motivated to do so.
  6. I think the likelihood of Cruz coming back next year after trading Berrios today is less than 1 percent, especially if the NL adds the DH. The Twins should use the DH spot for the next year and a half to get looks at guys like Rooker.
  7. I 100% agree on Arraez. You can't pencil him anywhere on defense, and you can't count on his knees either. Not a great recipe for a young guy. Maybe an NL team views him as a potential DH next year.
  8. Simmons was brought in a) assuming the team would be good and b) assuming Simmons would be good. Neither of those things are true so there is no point to play him any longer, or really even roster him, imo. The only reason the Twins should continue to give Simmons opportunity is if they are going to extend him, which I hope to god is not the case. Also, FWIW, I don't think Nick Gordon is any good, but I think the Twins should use these next 60 games to find that out for certainty. Start him 25 games at SS and 20 games in the OF, see how he hits and how he fields around the diamond. There is no point in showcasing Simmons for a potential trade anymore.
  9. Similar to Happ, getting something more than cash for Robles is a W. This guy looks like he might have a chance as a reliever, and even if he doesn't, who cares. No reason to keep Robles around. Let Stashak/Cano/Hamilton/Moran get his innings.
  10. I am really, really hoping we announce that Simmons has been DFA'd before the game tonight, although I don't expect it. Doogie made it sound as if there were no offers on the table, which isn't all that surprising. DFA him and let Gordon play at SS 5 days a week. I don't care if he ends up being bad there, lets find out so we can make sure he is bad there. Call up Miranda and play him all over the infield.
  11. Getting anything for Robles is a good thing, similar to Happ. Still upset that we didn't trade Pineda.
  12. As good as the Berrios trade was, not moving Pineda is an epic failure. I don't care if the offers are below what you deem necessary, get SOMETHING for him. An absolute failure by the front office
  13. As good as the Berrios trade was, not moving Pineda is an epic failure. I don't care if the offers are below what you deem necessary, get SOMETHING for him. An absolute failure by the front office.
  14. As painful as it is to see the Twins in a position where trading Jose is even a possibility, it was the right move. I had my doubts on him signing an extension, and his value will never be higher. The Twins did fantastic on this trade. Martin needs to develop his power in order to live up to his prospect pedigree, but he's as good as the Twins are going to do. SWR is a wildcard, as he's so young for his level but has struggled and doesn't have fantastic stuff. All in all, I am happy with the trade. Also, I'll be updating the prospect list all day today 1. Royce Lewis 2. Austin Martin 3. Jordan Balazovic 4. Simeon Woods-Richardson 5. Josh Winder 6. Chase Petty 7. Jhoan Duran 8. Joe ryan 9. Jose Miranda 10. Matt Canterino 11. Aaron Sabato 12. Keoni Cavaco 13. Gilberto Celestino 14. Matt Walner 15. Noah Miller 16. Masial Urbina 17. Drew Strotman 18. Bailey Ober 19. Brent Rooker 20.. Steve Hajjar
  15. Yep. I’m completely fine trading Rooker. He’s a 1B/DH type that likely isn’t anything more than league average. Unfortunately, I think his value is lower than it was 2 years, or even a year ago. Now that we’re in this position, there’s no reason not to give him DH at bats everyday until the end of the season. If he shows promise, great, you can trade him and another prospect for an arm this offseason. I don’t foresee rooker having a long term role in minnesota, especially if Sano is still around next year.
  16. Gonna miss seeing nelly in the twins lineup. When we brought him in we were a team on the rise but still needed a legit star, and Nelson Cruz was that despite being a Dh only. He was great in the clubhouse and in the city. One of the easiest twins to root for in my lifetime. I hope he gets a ring in Tampa. As far as the trade goes, I’m very pleased with the return for an expiring 41 year old DH. here is my updated prospect list 1. Royce Lewis 2. Jordan Balazovic 3. Josh Winder 4. Chase Petty 5. Jhoan Duran 6. Joe ryan 7. Jose Miranda 8. Matt Canterino 9. Aaron Sabato 10. Keoni Cavaco 11. Gilberto Celestino 12. Matt Walner 13. Noah Miller 14. Masial Urbina 15. Drew Strotman 16. Bailey Ober 17. Edward Julien 18. Steve Hajjar 19. Spencer Steer 20. Brent Rooker
  17. Now that the draft is over...my top 20 prospects. 1. Royce Lewis 2. Jordan Balazovic 3. Josh Winder 4. Chase Petty 5. Jhoan Duran 6. Jose Miranda 7. Matt Canterino 8. Aaron Sabato 9. Keoni Cavaco 10. Gilberto Celestino 11. Matt Walner 12. Noah Miller 13. Masial Urbina 14. Bailey Ober 15. Edward Julien 16. Steve Hajjar 17. Spencer Steer 18. Brent Rooker 19. Cole Sands 20. Blayne Enlow
  18. One guy I'm keeping my eye on today... OF Jud Fabian (20, Florida) - Great defensively, very young college guy. Also hit 20 homers at Florida, but has a lot of swing and miss in his game. With the defense and power, I'd take a risk if he falls to 61 (unlikely)
  19. Not a huge fan of the Davis pick. Jack going to a pitchers park in Taxas is awesome. Kid is going to be good.
  20. Well, he held down his end of the bargain. Now the FO just needs to trade him for the prediction to hit.
  21. The Pitchers: RHP Jose berrios (7-2, 3.52 ERA, 96K) vs LHP Carlos Rodon (6-3, 2.37 ERA, 122 K) This matchup features the best arms on both ball clubs, and while that isn’t shocking on the Twins side of things, it is for the white sox. Rodon has battled injuries and poor performance in the past, but has been lights out in his contract year. The lefty is throwing as hard as he ever has, and the slider is an absolute weapon. Berrios has been as consistent as we’ve seen him, but struggled last time out against the Sox. Are the trade rumors weighing on him? Lineups Twins 1. Luis Arraez 3B 2. Jorge Polanco 2B 3. Nelson Cruz DH 4. Alex Kirilloff LF 5. Ryan Jeffers C 6. Max Kepler RF 7. Miguel Sano 1B 8. Gilberto Celestino CF 9. Andrelton Simmons SS white Sox 1. Adam Eaton RF 2. Yoan Moncada 3B 3. Jose Abreu 1B 4. Brian Goodwin CF 5. Leury Garcia 2B 6. Gavin Sheets DH 7. Andrew Vaughn LF 8. Zack Collins C 9. Danny Mendick SS The biggest news in tonight’s lineup is that the White Sox are without backstop Yasmini Grandal after he exited last nights ballgame and was placed on the 10 Day IL list this afternoon. The sox are already dealing with a fair share of injuries, and losing one of their most productive hitters doesn’t help. The twins run out a similar lineup to what we’ve seen as of late, but no Trevor Larnach against the southpaw. Max Kepler is still on the card after homering 3 times in the past 2 days. pick to click: Berrios fires 7 innings of 2 hit ball in his final game as a member of the Twins Prediction: Twins 6, Sox 1
  22. As we all know, the Twins season has been a disaster almost immediately from the get go. The first seven games went as expected, and the Twins saw themselves with a 5-2 record through a weeks worth of games. However, they are now 2 months into the season, and through the entirety of last seasons total games played, and find themselves sitting 13 games below .500 at 24-37. I don't think anybody, even models that predict the bottoming out of a team, saw them playing at this pace. There are many different reasons for the Twins poor start, including the bullpen, injuries to key hitters when they are needed the most, and bounce-back candidates simply not rebounding like many had hoped. Another issue that has set the Twins back is the offseason acquisitions. On paper, the class of Alex Colome, Hansel Robles, J.A. Happ, and Matt Shoemaker on the pitching side appeared to do a sufficient job. However, only Robles of this group has even returned moderate value, and Colome and Shoemaker should likely be DFA'd in the upcoming days. The hitting side didn't see the signings that the pitching side did, with only Andrelton Simmons being brought in to bolster the infield defense, and Kyle Garlick, who was claimed on the waiver wire, and may actually be the best move they made all winter. With that said, let me go down the alternate rode of myself being the GM, and taking a look at how things may be going if they made the moves I mapped out in my offseason blueprint. Arbitration SP Jose Berrios - 5.3M (Tender) CF Byron Buxton - 4.4M (Tender) RP Tyler Duffey - 1.7M (Tender) C Mitch Garver - 1.8M (Tender) RP Taylor Rogers - 5.5M (Tender) LF Eddie Rosario - 10M (Non-Tender) RP Matt Wisler - 1.4M (Tender) The real life Twins' front office made very similar choices to myself, which all seemed pretty obvious. There was no world where any of the top 4 names on the list were going to become free agents, and although there was some questioning around Taylor Rogers, I never believed the Twins would let him walk. The first real decision came on fan favorite Eddie Rosario, who like the Thad Levine and Derek Falvey, I let walk away. I had no issues with it at the time, and in retrospect still have no issues with the move. Rosario is slashing .244/..294/.356 for an OPS+ of 79. The batting average and on base percentage are near career norms, but the slugging percentage is at a career low, and it isn't close. One bright spot to Eddie is that he's been aggressive on the base paths with Cleveland, totaling 7 steals in 56 games. The first differing decision I made was the decision to tender Matt Wisler, who was just waived by the San Fransisco Giants after signing a one year deal. Wisler was very, very bad this year, so that was a swing and a miss in this hypothetical offseason, but at just a projected 1.4 million dollars, it was a risk I was willing to take. Following arbitration and the guaranteed salaries that we all knew were going to be on the book, I gave myself around 40 million dollars to spend to fill out the rest of the roster. So, how did I spend it? Let's take a look. Free Agency Robbie Ray - 1 year, 6M dollars In the real universe of the MLB, Robbie Ray signed a 1 year, 8 million dollar deal with the Toronto Blue Jays. Ray was an intriguing bounce back candidate who at the minimum could fill the back end of the rotation with higher upside. Even at 8 million dollars that he got in real life, it would be a risk that I would take. Ray was one of the first players to sign this winter, and it has paid off huge for the Toronto Blue Jays. Ray has made 11 starts and compiled 2 WAR on 81 strikeouts in only 64.1 innings pitched, and has an ERA of 3.36, a number he hasn't posted since he was an all-star with Arizona in 2017. Ray does have a FIP of nearly 4.40, and negative regression will likely come at some point, but Ray would've been a huge success for the 2021 Minnesota Twins. Tyler Clippard - 1 year, 2.5M dollars The Twins chose not to bring back Tyler Clippard in 2021, and it turns out that it was the correct move. Clippard pitched 26 innings of 2.77 ERA baseball for the Twins in the shortened 2020 season, and I thought he was perfect as the first or second guy out of the bullpen in the 5th or 6th inning. However, he's been dealing with an injury that will likely keep him out for the rest of the year. Obviously he isn't to worthwhile to a bullpen when he's on the IL. Joakim Soria - 1 year, 6.25M dollars Soria only got half of the money I was willing to give him in my offseason blueprint, signing with the Oakland Athletics on a one year, 3.25 million dollar contract. Soria was an arm who I believed in as he's always posted great numbers, and has experience closing ball games. Things haven't gone as planned for Soria in Oakland, throwing 13 innings of 4.85 ERA baseball. The surface numbers are ugly, but Soria appears to being unlucky with a HR/9 innings of 2.5, a number which sits at 0.8 throughout his career. The strikeouts are in line with where they've always been for the 37 year old, and he still rarely gives up the free pass. Would Soria have been a late inning weapon for the Twins in his current form? Probably not. Would he have been better than Alexander Colome? Absolutely. Ehire Adrianza - 1 year, 1.5M dollars The second re-signing that I mapped out for the Twins was bringing back utility infielder Ehire Adrianza. In this universe, Jorge Polanco was given the ability to stay as the shortstop because I believed the bounceback year was coming at the dish, and I simply didn't care as much about the defense as the real life Twins front office did. Adrianza would serve as the 6th infielder and fill in once a week, and provide late inning defense. The real life Adrianza signed a minor league deal with the Atlanta Braves, but has been on the major league ballclub the entire year. He still isn't hitting with an OPS+ of 78, which is just a few points lower than his career norms, but that isn't what I resigned him to do. We know he can field wherever you put him, and that is where the value is. The Twins chose to bring in Andrelton Simmons, and that was a fine move too. This role was never filled for the Twins by Falvey and Levine. Jonathan Schoop - 1 year, 6M dollars I already signed one backup infielder for my hypothetical squad, but still felt like I needed another as I wasn't a huge believer of Luis Arraez defense at second base, and knew that the Twins needed a right handed bat to face off with southpaws. Schoop got a 1 year, 4.5 million dollar deal with the Detroit Tigers. Our old friend has had a solid year manning second and first for the Tigers, with an OPS+ of 104, which is 4 percent higher than league average, and has also batted 9 balls over the wall in a stadium where it isn't easy to do so. On my 2021 Twins team, Schoop would primarily hit against left handed pitchers only, but also have the ability to fill in with injuries to Luis Arraez, Miguel Sano, or Josh Donaldson. Schoop has 59 at bats against left handed pitchers, and has 7 extra base hits including 3 homers for an OPS of .840. This would give him an OPS+ of 130 if he were to only hit against lefties, while filling the role that Willians Astudillo currently finds himself in. I think this is an easy upgrade that the Twins executives missed out on. Kevin Pillar - 2 year, 12.5M dollars The last signing in my hypothetical offseason was outfielder Kevin Pillar, who was the only player I was willing to give 2 years to. However, I went way higher on the money than was really needed, as he signed a 2 year deal totaling 6M dollars with the New York Mets, but that doesn't really matter here in La-La Land. Pillar wore a fastball off the face earlier this season, but with that non-withstanding, has been about as advertised for the Mets. Pillar plays good outfield defense, although he is a bit stretched in center field, and is a league average hitting with an OPS+ of 101. On my Twins team, Pillar would split time with Jake Cave in left field in a platoon until Trevor Larnach was ready to be called up, and then would be the fourth outfielder on the team. In real life, the Twins opted to claim Kyle Garlick for a similar role, and he has certainly worked out just fine. However, Garlick is nowhere near the defender that Pillar is, so we'll call this one a wash. Pitchers SP - Kenta Maeda SP - Jose Berrios SP - Michael Pineda SP - Robbie Ray SP - Randy Robnak RP - Taylor Rodgers (L) RP - Tyler Duffey RP - Matt Wisler RP - Jorge Alcala RP - Cody Stashak RP- Tyler Cippard RP - Joakim Soria RP - Caleb Thielbar (L) Much like the real life Twins, I was counting on Kenta Maeda having a similar season that he had in 2020. Obviously I wasn't expecting a cy young season, but I thought he was a #2 starter, much like Berrios. We know Kenta has struggled, but Berrios has been about as advertised. Pineda has continued to stay consistent, and the presence of Robbie Ray in this rotation is gamechanging. The Twins are currently handing the ball to JA Happ every 5th day, who has been mediocre, when in this universe they're using a potential all-star. I also gave the 5th rotation spot to Randy Dobnak instead of signing a Matt Shoemaker type, which is an easy upgrade no matter who you give the ball to. The bullpen would face similar struggles that they've seen in 2021, as the only real change here is Joakim Soria. We know that Matt Wisler has been bad, and Tyler Clippard hasn't even thrown a pitch. Much like the Twins brass, I was counting on Rogers, Duffey, and Soria to close out games with the rest of the guys being able to get me through the middle innings. I think the Twins addition of Hansel Robles puts their bullpen on par with the one I drew up here, which isn't good news for either of us. Lineup C - Mitch Garver, Ryan Jeffers 1B - Miguel Sano 2B - Luis Arraez (L), Jonathan Schoop SS - Jorge Polanco (S), Ehire Adrianza (S) 3B - Josh Donaldson LF - Jake Cave (L) CF - Byron Buxton, Kevin Pillar RF - Max Kepler (L) DH: Alex Kiriloff (L) I opted to split catching time behind the dish much like the Twins planned on doing before Ryan Jeffers stumbled out of the gate and sent him down. We have seen Jeffers bounceback as he's been getting every day starts. The infield is the biggest difference on this team, with Jorge Polanco staying at shortstop, and Jonathan Schoop and Ehire Adrianza coming off the bench. Schoop fills in for Willians Astudillo, which I would consider an upgrade, and I think many others would as well. The Adrianza role wasn't filled in real life, and that's fine because they signed a defensive wizard in Andrelton Simmons and had the luxury of Jorge Polanco being the second string shortstop. Kevin Pillar fills the role of Kyle Garlick, which is a wash. The biggest change I made was not re-signing Nelson Cruz, as I had questions about him after seeing him struggle to end the 60 game season. Through nearly the same amount of games in 2021, Cruz has slowed down from his early years in Minnesota, and is potentially playing in his "swan song" season. I would've given the role to Alex Kiriloff from day one, and I think that would've been a potential upgrade over the 40 year old slugger if the wrist injury never came for AK. Obviously it is hard to grade my offseason because there is no way of telling which players do or don't get hurt, but on paper I think that with the addition of Robbie Ray, the starting rotation is a lot deeper and a lot better. The lineup is largely the same with Alex Kiriloff instead of Nelson Cruz, and in retrospect the bullpen would face many of the same issues here that we've seen on the field in 2021. Grades Rotation: A- Bullpen: C- Lineup: B Bench: B+ Overall: B
  23. Since my last game thread intro, nothing about the state of the Minnesota Twins has changed. They are still playing poor baseball despite having a talented roster on paper, they are playing sloppy, and a player gets hurt nearly every game. This seems to be how things will be remembered for this 2021 Minnesota team, which is sad, but expected as a Minnesota sports fan. With that said, the Yankees come to town for the first time this season, and we know the Twins do not like facing the Yankees. They turn into a shell of themselves and play horrible. With the way this year has gone, I fully expect a sweep because it simply would not make a difference, and of course we would play well against them in a lost year. The Pitchers RHP Michael Pineda (3-3, 3.40 ERA, 48 K's, 47.2 IP) vs LHP Jordan Montgomery (3-1, 3.92 ERA, 59 K's, 59.2 IP) Michael Pineda gets the ball once again after returning from a brief injury stint ,and will go up against his former team. Pineda has thrown the ball like we've come to expect in Minnesota under his tenure, which will give you 5 or 6 innings of 2 or 3 run baseball, while not giving up a big inning or allowing much by the base on balls. Pineda doesn't have electric stuff, nor will he get a ton of swings and misses, but he is a pitcher, not a thrower. On the other side, Jordan Montgomery gets the ball, who similar to Pineda, won't give up a ton of free passes, and isn't going to rack up a ton of strikeouts. He's going to go out for the Yankees, throw the ball in the strikezone, and likely limit the big inning. The southpaw relies on a curveball which has a whiff rate of over 40%, and pairs it with three fastballs, a sinker, cutter, and traditional four seam. None of the pitches are great swing and miss pitches, but he has to show them in order to be effective. He also throws a changeup to right handed batters which has a whiff rate of 35 percent, and is the putaway pitch over a fifth of the time. Lineups: Twins Not available Yankees Not available This day in History - 2005: Going yard twice in his 4-for-4 day, Alex Rodriguez becomes the 40th and youngest big leaguer to hit 400 career home runs. On the 316th day of the 29th year of his life, the Yankee superstar third baseman, who surpasses Ken Griffey Jr. for the honor, connects for a solo shot off Brewers' southpaw Jorge De La Rosa in the eighth inning for the milestone marker. Pick to Click: Kyle Garlick bomb Prediction: Twins 4, Yankees 6 Go Twins!!!
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