Mill1634

Brooks LeeWalker JenkinsEmmanuel RodriguezMarco RayaDavid FestaCharlee SotoJose RodriguezCory LewisAustin MartinYunior SeverinoYasser MercedesBrandon WinokurTanner SchobelBrent HeadrickConnor PrielippLuke KeaschallKala'i RosarioBen RossBryan AcunaJose Salas

Leon re-signed with the Rangers on a MiLB deal

Would be shocked if lesko isn’t slid down to the Braves

Darren said twins will not take Berry

My 3 names I think they’ll be deciding between Lee Cross Neto praying for Lee, fine with Neto, don’t want cross

Oops, overlooked that one. yeah, I agree on the values but I put all of these through the trade value website making sure the twins were also giving a surplus. Obviously this isn’t the end all he all, and the twins are likely going to have to give up arms at the deadline but the issue is so many of the high end arms are so far away, and Balazovic/Canterino are injured and struggling so I had a hard time judging their values.

Welcome back to another Mill1634 blog entry. I've been away for a while as I just finished up my degree and started out my first job, but I've still been hanging around in the game threads. Like many Twins'' fans, I am thrilled with the way things have gone so far but am also realistic that this team is not in a position to threaten the true top teams in the league. However, I do not believe that they are all that far away. It's no secret that the bullpen has been horrendous outside of Griffin Jax and Jhoan Duran, and the rotation has been surprisingly productive despite being with Bailey Ober, Chris Paddack, and Kenta Maeda for a large portion of the year while also getting poor performance from Dylan Bundy and losing Sonny Gray to the IL twice. Part of the reason that the starting pitcher's have performed so well is because of the leash Rocco has had on his pitchers. However, this isn't as effective when the bullpen is terrible. Today, I'll attempt to fix both the rotation and the bullpen. I believe that it is realistic for the Twins to trade for two relievers and one starter, but today I'm going to be aggressive and add two starters and three relievers. I'll also add a surprising bat that would have many Twins fans excited. Identifying the Sellers The first thing to do as the fake front office is to identify the sellers. I've put these teams into three separate categories: Will sell, should sell, and could sell. The first category is the true bottom teams in the league that I would be shocked if they don't have a selloff. The middle category are teams that are sticking around but don't have enough talent to really go for it. The final category, could sell, features a small set of teams that are either near or above .500 but are either over performing or play in a great division. Will Sell Orioles Tigers Royals A's Nats Cubs Pirates Reds Rockies I don't think that any of this list is shocking or controversial at all. None of these teams have a shot at the playoffs, and a fair amount of them are at least another year from competing. The one team on here who will maybe hold onto some pieces is the Orioles, who have been playing good baseball as of late and are nearing a contention window. For that reason, I would be uber shocked if they trade someone with team control like reliever Felix Bautista. However, I think players that are expiring can be had. Should sell Marlins DBacks Rangers Again, this is a small set of teams that I think should sell, and probably will end up selling. The Marlins feature a great rotation and are near .500 for the first time in forever, but are in 4th place in the NLE, and really have no path to the playoffs. The DBacks are another team similar to the Orioles, where they are playing better baseball than they have in a long time, but have some pieces that can be sold off to future on 2023 and beyond. The final team, the Rangers, spent a ton of money this off-season but still aren't in a position to push for the playoffs. Could sell White Sox Guardians Angels Two AL central foes here in the final section in the White Sox and Guardians. I do not expect either of these teams to sell, but could see it. The White Sox have been playing poorly all year and certainly have some pieces that would get a haul at the deadline like Liam Hendricks or Lucas Giolito. The Guardians, who got insanely hot last month, have settled back to earth and aren't really a true thread in my mind. Their owner refuses to spend money which is the main reason that I have them in this section, but I think it would take a run of poor play leading up to the trade deadline to truly see a sell off. The Angels, who have been terrible despite having two of the best players on the planet, are a prime team that should sell but I don't think they will. The Goal The goal of this trade deadline is to make the team a true contender. This is going to be tough for some fans as I am going to trade some prospects that are highly thought of, including by myself. However, I believe that this may be the best team the Twins will have with Byron Buxton on it, as Carlos Correa is unlikely to stick around. The goal is to add one starter that is better than both Joe Ryan and Sonny Gray, and another starter that I am comfortable starting in game 4 of the divisional series. As far as the bullpen, I want to add an arm that I am comfortable throwing in the 8th or 9th inning, and arm that is in the Griffin Jax/Caleb Thielbar tier, and a left handed pitcher, as I'm not uber high on Jovani Moran's control issues playing out well in the playoffs. Acquire RH SP Tyler Mahle from Cincinnati for IF Austin Martin, IF Keoni Cavaco, and IF Yunior Severino This is clearly the biggest acquisition I'll be making as the GM of the Twins, acquiring Tyler Mahle from the Reds. Mahle has great stuff and another year of team control remaining. He's certainly better than Joe Ryan, and is probably a half-step up from Sonny Gray. Mahle is likely to be one of the more sought after pitchers at the deadline, but isn't even the best starter the Reds will trade this deadline, as that title belongs to Luis Castillo. However, I prefer Mahle as I believe the cost will be a lot less. In the deal, we give up Austin Martin, who has struggled this year but still has all the talent in the world. The Reds may not view Martin as a centerpiece, but there is a chance that they do. Keoni Cavaco was a first round pick a few years ago and has finally started to come around for Fort Myers this year. Severino is a young middle infield prospect who is thrown is a lottery ticket. Predicting these types of guys is nearly impossible as all organizations value different things. Acquire RH SP Merrill Kelly and LH RP Joe Mantiply from Arizona for SP Blayne Enlow, OF Matt Wallner, IF/OF Edouard Julien, and OF Mark Contreras Kelly, who dominated the Twins earlier this year, is one of the least talked about names at the deadline. He doesn't have elite stuff and he probably isn't going to dominate a playoff caliber lineup, but he's a veteran that knows how to pitch similar to Sonny Gray. He's signed through 2024, although that may not be a great negotiation tool for the DBacks as he's likely not going to age all that well. He has an ERA in the mid-3's with the FIP numbers to back that up. Mantiply is another pitcher that isn't talked about nearly enough, and is the left hander that I would be seeking out if I was in an MLB front office. Mantiply has an ERA below 2 and isn't arb eligible until 2027. However, he's already 31 years old and with the volatility of relievers I would expect the DBacks to strike while the iron is hot. The headliner in this deal is Matt Wallner, who's been crushing the baseball at Wichita and is likely MLB ready. Blayne Enlow and Mark Contreras are both included to clear space off the 40 man, but both does have a small amount of value. Enlow is working his way back from injury, and Contreras is probably a 4th OF. Edouard Julien has an OPS of .876 for Wichita and has an OBP in the .420s. Acquire RH RP Daniel Bard from Colorado for RHP Ronny Henriquez Daniel Bard is one of the better stories in baseball. He left the game for quite some time but returned last season and is now a fireballing reliever who has found success in Colorado, which is not something to take for granted. The main reason the return on Bard is so light is because he is already 37 years old and is expiring after this season is over. He's struck out 38 hitters in just 30.2 innings of work, and has 16 saves with an ERA of 2.35. Bard would immediately slot in as the teams 2nd best reliever behind Jhoan Duran, and could slide everyone down in the pecking order. Henqiuez was acquired in the Mitch Garver trade and has had an up and down season for St Paul. I believe that he is destined for the bullpen, and could maybe even help the Twins, but I'd rather acquire someone who I know can help the Twins in the year we're "going for it." Acquire RH RP David Robertson from Chicago for OF Yesser Mercedes Similar to Bard, Robertson is a 37 year old reliever on a bad team that was out of baseball for a year and came back as a lights out bullpen weapon. He too becomes a free agent after this season. This is your classic lottery ticker prospect in Yesser Mercedes, who was an IAFA signing a few years ago and not much is known about him, although he is a top 30 prospect in the Twins system. Robertson too would become one of the better arms in the Twins bullpen, although I would have him 4th in the hierarchy behind Duran, Bard, and Jax. Acquire 1B/DH S Josh Bell from Washington for IF Spencer Steer, 1B Aaron Sabato, and RHP Drew Strotman This would easily be the 2nd biggest trade pulled off with myself in the GM chair, adding a game changing bat in Josh Bell. Bell boast in OPS+ of 158 this season in his expiring contract year, and will be one of the most sought after bats on the market. He hits for average and power and would provide power from both sides of the plate and would hit in the middle of the order. Of course, this requires us to give up rising prospect Spencer Steer, who I think should've been included on the top 100 prospects list at mid-season update. We also include former first rounder Aaron Sabato, who has huge power and draws walks, but also has a ton of swing and miss stuff. We also send back Drew Strotman who is a lottery type of guy in this deal as the Nats may believe he can still start, or be a weapon out of a terrible Nationals bullpen. The Results Now let's take a look at where the pitching staff as a whole stands assuming we are in the playoffs. I'll assume we're only going to use 4 starters in the playoffs, as most teams do. I will also assume that everyone is healthy, but I am assuming that Jorge Alcala does not make a comeback this year. I am also assuming that Kenta Maeda does not show enough to make an impact on the staff so he will be left off of this hypothetical playoff pitching staff, as well as what the lineup would look like with Josh Bell in the middle of it. Starting Rotation 1. Tyler Mahle 2. Sonny Gray 3. Joe Ryan 4. Merrill Kelly Bullpen CL - RH Jhoan Duran SU - RH Daniel Bard SU - RH Griffin Jax MR - LH Joe Mantiply MR - LH Caleb Thielbar MR - RH Emilio Pagan MR - RH David Roberson LR - RH Josh Winder LR/Spot Starter - RH Chris Archer Left off: RH Dylan Bundy, LH Jovani Moran, RH Bailey Ober, RH Kenta Maeda, RH Trevor Megill, RH Jharrel Cotton, RH Jorge Alcala, RH Tyler Duffey This gives us a 9 man bullpen and a 13 man pitching staff with a great mix of right handed relievers that can blow hitters away. It also features two crafty lefties in Joe Mantiply and Caleb Thielbar, both of whom are deadly against left handed hitters. It also slides Emilio Pagan way down in the pecking order where I think he's best suited, and allows Tyler Duffey to throw mop up duty. Josh Winder can come in in the playoffs and give you multiple innings of effective relief. Chris Archer is a guy who can do similar things to Winder. I left off Bundy because he isn't playoff quality, Moran because I don't see the club carrying 3 lefties, Ober because he isn't good enough for the rotation and don't think his stuff plays up out of the bullpen, and Kenta because I don't know how his rehab will shake out so we won't count on him, as well as Jorge Alcala for similar reason. Megill and Cotton are both left off as I do not see them remaining on the 40 man roster if all these moves were to come to fruition. The Lineup DH Luis Arraez CF Byron Buxton SS Carlos Correa 1B Josh Bell LF Alex Kirilloff 2B Jorge Polanco 3B Jose Miranda RF Max Kepler C Ryan Jeffers Bench: C Gary Sanchez, 3B Gio Urshella, IF/OF Nick Gordon, OF Kyle Garlick Left off: 1B Miguel Sano, OF Gilberto Celestino, OF Trevor Larnach This gives the Twins a potent lineup with that adds depth in Josh Bell pushing Jorge Polanco to the 6 spot with Alex Kirilloff being the lefty that hits in the middle of the order, and Jose Miranda getting the start at 3rd over Urshella because he is such a better hitter than Gio. Jeffers gets the start at catcher as he's much better defensively, but both would play in the playoffs. Nick Gordon is taken on the playoff roster over Trevor Larnach as he provides speed off the bench and also the ability to play CF without Gilberto Celestino on the roster, whos off because of Josh Bell's arrival. Kyle Garlick is obviously kept on the roster to start against left handed pitchers. How would you grade this deadline? Drop a comment below! Thanks for reading, and Go Twins!

Rogers is the only one that moves the needle at all, and that’s IF he gets back to what he was his first season. The other two are no better than what we have, and even Rogers isn’t as good as Gray or Ryan. Getting one of these options is fine, but they can’t be the best starter you acquire before the deadline if you want to be serious about winning.

I expect a cherry picked article about last nights blunder now.

Looks like the weather forecast is not ideal for tomorrow right around first pitch. I know Chicago got a game moved up earlier in the year for the same thing, but I doubt it happens here. Hopefully they can get it in, or they'll probably be playing two Thursday.

Bullpen management was interesting, but not “bad.” Duran is the best RP and was treated as such. Smith is this years Duffey where Rocco hands him the ball to get out of a situation and then let’s him have the night off. Nothing wrong with that. He’s been great. Jax over Duffey was surprising but needed. Jax has been good and Duffey has not. Think tomorrows late innings go with Duffey, Thielbar, and Smith if the games close.

My prediction: C (3): Jeffers Sanchez Godoy IF (6) Sano Arraez Poloanco Correa Gio Gordon OF (4) Kepler Buxton AK Garlick SP (5) Gray Ober Ryan Bundy Archer RP (9) Rogers Duffey Thielbar Alcala Smith Cotton Winder Duran Jax//Thorpe/Smeltzer

They mentioned on the radio broadcast today that Toby said Royce will be the Saints starting SS and Palacios will move around the diamond.

I too am upset about Larnach being sent down. I didn't expect him to come North with the team, but there is no reason to send him down already. He was crushing the ball and Jake Cave is still with the team. Zero reason for that.

Strongly encourage anyone on the fence about starting a game thread to jump in.

Meh. I think if Niko wasn't a former Twin he would be on zero peoples radars. Am I completely opposed to it? No. But is this a move that moves the needle? Not one bit. He's probably an upgrade over Gordon, so if it's a straight swap I am fine with it.

I personally think Cobb is better than Pineda, don't really think it's close. Both have an injury history and a reason to worry going forward, and neither is an ace, but I would much rather have a healthy Cobb than a healthy Pineda.

Oh yeah, I know you're not taking it as gospel, but just wanted to put that out there for those that don't play the game that it isn't the end all be all like you said. It relies a lot on the settings you have, and the game values some players super weirdly. It's very possible the Twins would have to add on a better prospect than Strotman, but it's hard to come up with hypothetical trades in any sport, especially baseball with every front office valuing certain prospects differently. If the Twins are fans of Pablo Lopez, I have no doubt that they could put a package together to land him.

I used baseball trade values to run this through. As far as OOTP..lol. Depends so much on your settings. Not a good way to judge if trades will go through in reality. of course the twins would potentially have to add more. I think Kepler still has some value, and we know Miami has wanted him before. Jeffers is a wildcard. I think some teams would value him a lot, and some not at all.

Thanks for the feedback Mike. I'm pretty over Kepler has he's had near a thousand at-bats with the same issues and has either refused to adjust, or has adjusted and it hasn't worked. He is a very underrated defender in right field, so there is some value in him even if he's only a league average hitter, but I would much rather have a #2 starter than Kepler. I don't think the Marlins are moving Rogers or Sandy like you said. Sixto Sanchez is maybe a guy they'd trade, as is Eliser Hernandez, but he is more of a MOR starter. I am not a fan of Rodon. Sox didn't give him a QO, which means something, and he has years worth of injury history. Someone is going to pay up for him, but I don't think it'll be the Twins. Stroman would be a very good fit, but I don't see him wanting to play in Minnesota and will likely have many suitors, and I wanted to keep this as realistic as a hypothetical off-season can be. I think the lineup is similar to last yaer, but you have to remember it was still an above average offense last year. Have the 2020 or 2019 pitching staff and they are in the postseason again. You're always going to be betting on health with some of the main contributors, but that's true of any team. If your best players get hurt, you aren't going to have a chance whether you are the Twins, the Dodgers, or the Orioles. I would love to see the Twins add Knebel. I think there is a chance. I am probably higher on Ottavino than most, and the fit makes a ton of sense. He relies on primarily sliders, and we know how the Twins love a good slider. I wouldn't be opposed to Ryan Tepera either, he was actually somebody that I considered. The Twins were in on Yates last year, but then he was out for the entire year once again. I'd either stay away from him if you're only adding two real relievers in free agency (meaning actual money being given out, not waiver claims, R5 picks, or MiLB deals), or add him as a third arm if the money is right.

The first two parts of this series have seen the Twins clear room on the 40 man for an active off-season in hopes of bouncing back to challenge the Chicago White Sox for a division title, and even farther if the Twins were to make it there. In part 2, we signed Eduardo Rodriguez from the Boston Red Sox, former Angel Alex Cobb, and journeymen Michael Wacha to varying sorts of deals. However, I promised that I was not happy with this rotation and that more would be done to finish it out. As promised, that's how we will kick off part 3 to the off-season blueprint. Trade OF Max Kepler, C Ryan Jeffers, and RHP Drew Strotman to Miami for RHP Pablo Lopez We still need another top of the rotation starter for this squad, and that is exactly what we add in Pablo Lopez from the Marlins. The Marlins are looking for outfield help, and they get a guy in Max Kepler who many Twins fans have soured on over the past few seasons. Kepler took off in 2019, but since then has struggled with super low batting averages in part because he pulls the ball on the ground much too frequently. However, with a move to Miami, Kepler has a chance to reconnect with former hitting coach James Rowson and can attempt to rekindle that magic. The Marlins are also reportedly looking for a catcher for the future as we've seen in talks with the Blue Jays, and we provide them that in Ryan Jeffers. This allows Mitch Garver to take a lions share of the catching duties behind the plate, but he can still split time with Ben Rortvedt against right handed pitchers. Drew Strotman, a DFA canidate for the Twins, is a lottery ticket for the Marlins who may be a decent reliever. Lopez, 26 years old next year, has steadily improved under Miami, and is coming off a year where he was worth 2.7 WAR in 102 innings. Lopez has steadily improved in his career, and struck out over 10 batters per 9 in 2021. Lopez features 5 pitches, with his changeup being the most effective. He also works a curveball off of his cutter/sinker/4-seam combination. Lopez may not be an ace, but he is a surefire #2 starter who I am comfortable starting in the playoffs. Lopez is under team control for a few more years, and becomes a free agent in 2025. This move sets us up for both the present and future, which is why I am comfortable trading both Kepler and Jeffers. Following this move we have around 20-25 million to spend on the lineup. Re-Sign SS Andrelton Simmons to a 1 year, 5M deal Listen, I don't love this much more than anyone else. Simmons did absolutely nothing with his bat, had some controversial opinions about things off the field, and was a disappointing signing. However, Simmons still played very good shortstop defense which is exactly what we're paying him to do. Anything that he provides us at the plate is just a plus. I do think that there is more in the bat than we saw last year, but he isn't going to be a great hitter. Also, as much as some fans didn't like Simmons, he seemed to be held in high regard by both players and coaches in the clubhouse. That accounts for something. Sign OF Mark Canha to a 1 year, 10M deal I was all aboard the Michael Brantley train last year, and this year the outfielder that I would like to see the Twins target is former A Mark Canha. Canha isn't a great defender, so there will be a step back in right field with the loss of Kepler, but Canha is very, very underrated at the plate. In the past 3 seasons, Canha has had OBP's of .396, .387, and .358. We all know that the Twins lineup is filled with players who will crush the baseball, but outside of Luis Arraez, who I don't think you can rely as an everyday player, they don't have a prototypical leadoff hitter. Canha fits that bill. He can also swipe bags if you give him a chance. Canha is also capable of playing first base if Sano finds himself injured or just not playing well, and is a fine candidate to rotate through DH. Sign OF Odubel Herrera to a 1 year, 5M deal Herrera, once a top prospect, hasn't quite lived up to the hype in Philadelphia, but he is still a quality outfielder, and is an overqualified 4th outfielder. Herrera isn't the defensive wizard that he was when he first came up, but he is still capable of playing centerfield a few times a week, or weeks at a time if there is an unfortunate injury to Byron Buxton. Herrera has a lifetime OPS+ of 101, which is 1% better than league average, but paired with the defense is a perfect fit for our 4th outfielder. Yes, I would prefer to have a right hander in this role, but the lower tier of the CF market is pretty bleak. Extend OF Byron Buxton to a 5 year, 90M deal + incentives This deal would not kick in until the following year, but a decision needs to be made this off-season, because if Buxton isn't re-signing, he's getting traded. However, we aren't letting the most talented player to ever put on a Twins uniform to walk away. We give him 18 million dollars a year in base salary starting in the 2023 season, and we apply the incentives like this: 50 games played: 500K 75 games played: 750K 100 games played: 2.5M 130 games played: 6M These incentives of course stack on each other, so if Buxton were to find himself playing 130 or more games in a year, the total year salary for Buxton would be 27.75M dollars. That may seem like a lot, but if Buxton is playing 130 games in a season, he's probably finishing top 5 in the MVP voting and is surely worth more money than that. However, if he is injured in a season, Buxton is still taking home a solid chunk of change, but it isn't absolutely breaking the bank on the Twins. If Buxton were to hit these incentives every year, the deal could be worth 138M dollars. The Verdict Pitchers 1. RHP Pablo Lopez 2. LHP Eduardo Rodreguiez 3. RHP Joe Ryan 4. RHP Alex Cobb 5. RHP Bailey Ober Closer - RHP Corey Knebel SU - LHP Taylor Rogers SU - RHP Tyler Duffey MR - RHP Adam Ottavino MR - LHP Caleb Thielbar MR - RHP Jorge Alcala MR - RHP Jovani Moran LR - RHP Michael Wacha The rotation is vastly improved on last year with the additions of Pablo Lopez, Eduardo Rodreguiez, and Alex Cobb. All 3 arms are quality arms who I would feel comfortable starting in the playoffs. This also gives the ability for Bailey Ober and Joe Ryan to go through a little bit of a sophomore slump if it were to happen. Michael Wacha shifts to the bullpen with the addition of Pablo Lopez, but he's the 6th starter when it is inevitably needed. After that, you have various arms like Randy Dobnak, Griffin Jax, Jordan Balazovic, Cole Sands, and a handful of others signed to MiLB deals The bullpen features new additions of right handers Corey Knebel and Adam Ottavino, which supplised more right handed power to a bullpen featuring 3 good lefties. Thielbar, Alcala, Moran, and Wacha are all capable of going multiple innings which is the way baseball is going, and the other 4 provide electric stuff to shut a game down. If the Twins are in it at the hunt, I would expect another reliever to be added at the deadline. Lineup vs RHP 1. RF Mark Canha 2. CF Byron Buxton 3. 2B Jorge Polanco (S) 4. 3B Josh Donaldson 5. LF Alex Kiriloff (L) 6. C Mitch Garver 7. 1B Miguel Sano 8. SS Andrelton Simmons 9. DH Luis Arraez (L) Bench: C Ben Rortvedt (L), IF Jose Miranda, OF/1B Trevor Larnach (L), OF Odubel Herrera (L) The lineup features new addition Mark Canha leading off, with Buxton, Polanco, and Donaldson following them. I believe that this top of the lineup could be as good as any in baseball. The middle of the order features Alex Kiriloff, who we are relying on bouncing back after an inspiring few weeks before needing wrist surgery. Garver and Sano provide thump, but we know they have their warts. It doesn't matter in the bottom portion of the lineup. Simmons is easily the weak spot, but Arraez rounds out the order to potentially set up the table with 2 back to back .370+ OBP batters. Rortvedt is the backup catcher, with Miranda being the backup infielder. Larnach can fill in as a pinch hitter, and Herrera is a late inning pinch running or defensive replacement. LHP 1. RF Mark Canha 2. CF Byron Buxton 3. 3B Josh Donaldson 4. C Mitch Garver 5. 1B Miguel Sano 6. SS Jorge Polanco 7. LF Alex Kiriloff (L) 8. 2B Jose Miranda 9. DH Luis Arraez (L) Bench: C Ben Rortvedt (L), SS Andrelton Simmons, OF/1B Trevor Larnach (L), OF Odubel Herrera (L) There are a few changes in this lineup in regards to who bats where, but the players are basially the same. The only change I made to this lineup was inserting Jose Miranda at 2nd base, sending Andrelton Simmons to the bench, and sliding Jorge Polanco over to shortstop. Donaldson, Garver, and Sano all slide up in the lineup as we shift Jorge Polanco down a few spots as he is not nearly as good against left handed pitchers as he is against righties, while the hitters we slid up thrive against left handers. Miranda is intriguing at the bottom of the lineup, splitting to two lefties to make sure they can't bring in a lefty reliever to face exclusively left handed hitters. Well Twins fans, this has been Mill1634's off-season blueprint. What do you think?

This is a fun idea in theory, but you’re going to run into an overtaxed bullpen at some point when Pineda only gives you three innings and now you’re having to use those guys who you were going to use in the 3 inning games that day to cover for him. I do not think we see the end to the “bulk” pitcher for a long while, especially with the talent many young pitchers have shown.

Adding a bunch of low to below average pitchers and hoping it works because you ask them to pitch < 5 innings (more like 2-3 as suggested, and sometimes 4 if things are going smoothly) isn’t a good strategy over 162 in my opinion. When you throw out 2 or 3 Lewis thorpe types in a game, odds are one of them is going to get lit up. I like to think outside the box as anyone, but I think as far as I’m willing to go with this is the bulk pitcher type we’ve seen many teams use. A good team still needs 3 really good pitchers who you feel good about when they take the mound, and another handful that you feel like you have a shot if you only ask them to throw 4 or 5 innings.

In part one of my off-season blueprint, I took a look at the 40 man roster and made some changes. The headliners were waiving players such as Lewis Thorpe and Brent Rooker, while adding on prospects like Royce Lewis and Jose Miranda. These things aren't exciting, but they are necessary steps to go through to create a true off-season blueprint. Now we're on to the fun stuff. Adding on to our hypothetical Twins roster. The current payroll sits at 76.85M dollars after arbitration, which were pulled from MLB Trade Rumors. I have given myself the same budget as last year, 130M dollars. This means we have around 53M to spend either via trade or free agency. Of course, we could trade someone off the major league roster to clear up even more space. But for now, lets add on. Team Needs - Pitching As of now, our current rotation features Bailey Ober and Joe Ryan. These names aren't bad, and both guys performed well in 2021, but they aren't going to be able to be our best pitchers to have a real shot to contend. Having them in the rotation is fine, but we're going to need to add at least 3 starters via trade or free agency, and likely a few more on MiLB deals. The bullpen, while not good, does have a base to work with. Rogers, Thielbar, and Moran are more than enough from the left side, so we won't be targeting any left handed relievers. However, we need to add at least 2 right handed relievers are our current options are Jorge Alcala, Tyler Duffey, and Juan Minaya. Sign LHP Eduardo Rodriguez to a 4 year, 60M deal Eduardo Rodriguez has spent his entire MLB career with the Boston Red Sox, and is coming off of a weird year. He was given a qualifying offer by Boston, so signing him would cost us our third highest draft pick, but that's something I am okay with. Of course, I would much rather sign a front line starter like Kevin Gausman or Max Scherzer, but I simply don't see the Twins being able to swing that in reality, so we're going to keep it realistic here as well. Eduardo gets less than the QO, but gets long term stability with the Twins making 15M AAV. Eduardo has had a FIP under 4 for the past 4 seasons, including a career best 3.32 this past season. He strikes out 10 batter per 9 innings, and provides a lefty arm in the rotation. He does have some injury history, but did pitch 157 innings after opting out of the 2020 season. He features a 5 pitch mix which can keep hitters off-balance, and I'm comfortable starting him in a playoff series. Do I want him to start game one? Probably not. But do I feel better about him starting game one than Joe Ryan or Bailey Ober? Absolutely. Sign RHP Alex Cobb to a 2 year, 18M deal Alex Cobb isn't the most healthy pitcher on the market, but when he pitches he's been as good as anyone. Cobb has never thrown more than 200 innings in his career, and pitched only 93.1 in 2020, but he was worth 1.7 WAR, and had his highest K/9 in his career at 9.5. If he didn't have health concerns, he's a guy who is getting similar money to Eduardo, but he is not. This keeps him as a good option for the Twins because he can provide mid-rotation stability, and again, I am comfortable starting him in a playoff series. Cobb features a 4 pitch mix with his best put-away pitch being his split-finger which ties him closely to former Twins starter Jake Odorizzi. We know the current FO targeted Jake, so targeting Cobb would not be a surprise. Sign RHP Michael Wacha to a 1 year, 3M deal This is the exact deal that Wacha took with the Rays in 2021, and the performance was mixed. Wacha showed the he could still strike batters out at a decent clip, which he has done throughout his career, but still found himself being bit by the gopher ball. Wacha fits the bill of last years Matt Shoemaker addition, who is a potential upside starter for cheap, and at minimum will provide stability to the backend of the rotation. You aren't going to want to start him in a playoff series, but I have no issue giving him the ball once every 5 days during the regular season. Wacha, like Eduardo, features a 5 pitch mix that relies heavily on a changeup that had a whiff rate of 34% in 2021. He also features a seldom used curveball which had a whiff rate of 44%. This is something the Twins could look to get more out of, and more frequently. That's it for the starters, at least on the free agency front. However, I promise you that I'm not happy with this rotation yet. A trade is coming...but not until the final part of this series, part 4. After signing three starters, we currently have 26 million dollars to work with for the bullpen and hitting side of things, and we'll be sure to spend it all. Sign RHP Corey Knebel to a 2 year, 14M deal This hypothetical deal isn't an actual 2 year deal, but instead a 1+1 deal with the second year being a team option with a buyout. Knebel is coming off an injured year, so we can get him for cheaper than if he was healthy, and is another reason to add the team option in case we run into a similar situation in 2022. Knebel is a two pitch pitcher, who throws extremely hard, something that is currently lacking in the Twins bullpen sans Jorge Alcala. Knebel would immediately be the best right hander out of the Twins bullpen, and sets them up much better and much more balanced. Sign Adam Ottavino to a 1 year, 3.5M deal If there was ever a signing to predict, I think this is it. Ottavino is coming off of a very bad September for the Boston Red Sox, but was still a weapon throughout the regular season with a 4.21 ERA, which was inflated by his 8+ ERA in September. Ottavino features a wipeout slider, which as we know, is something that the Twins have targeted around the edges of their staff. His slider put away 25 hitters in 2021, but did surrender 5 home runs. He also works a cutter off the slider, which is his other main pitch. Ottavino likely won't be a late inning option, but I would be super comfortable going to him in the mid innings. This sets up the current staff and rotation to look like this Starting Rotation 1. LHP Eduardo Rodriguez 2. RHP Alex Cobb 3. RHP Joe Ryan 4. RHP Bailey Ober 5. RHP Michael Wacha As I said earlier, the rotation isn't complete yet as there is one more move that's coming, but it won't be until the final part of this series where I put the finishing touches on things with some trades. However, the current state of the rotation is much improved to what we saw last year. Eduardo may not be a household name, but he's a very good arm. Cobb has an injury history, but is coming off of a successful year. Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober are both in house names that every Twins fan knows at this point. Wacha rounds out the rotation with a veteran arm. Bullpen Closer - RHP Corey Knebel Set-up - LHP Taylor Rogers Set-up - RHP Tyler Duffey MR - RHP Adam Ottavino MR - LHP Caleb Thielbar MR - LHP Jovani Moran MR - RHP Jorge Alcala LR - RHP Juan Minaya The bullpen features some familiar names, but we added a real back end weapon this year in free agency with Corey Knebel. I don't actually believe in having a true closer, but for the purposes of acting as the GM, we have listed Knebel there. You can mix and match Knebel, Rogers, Duffey, and Ottavino however you want in the late innings and I would feel good about it. Thielbar and Moran are both really good lefties, and Jorge Alcala is a wildcard. Minaya takes the first stab at the front end of the bullpen, but he will be cycled through like we've seen every year. And with that, the pitching portion of free agency is done. We have roughly 15 million dollars left on the table, but there may be more room to add with some trades off of the roster. Stay tuned, and let me know your thoughts below!

The 2021 baseball season has come and gone, and thankfully the Dodgers, Yankees, Astros, or White Sox did not win the world series. Eddie Rosario lit the baseball world on fire, the Cardinals had 5 players win a gold glove, and the Twins yet again did not win a playoff series. However, myself, Mill1634, is going to change that with this off-season blueprint. Last season, my off-season blueprint was much better than the actual Twins off-season simply by one player -- Robbie Ray, who I brought in on a hypothetical 1 year, 6 million dollar deal. In reality, Ray re-signed with the Jays for 8 million dollars, and is potentially the AL Cy Young winner. We'll look to see if I can recreate that magic this year. 40 Man Removals The Twins have already taken care of the majority of the legwork for me, as there was a batch of removals at the start of the off-season. SP Michael Pineada, RP Alex Colome (option declined) and SS Andrelton Simmons had their contracts expire which made them free agents which obviously removes them from the 40 man roster. OF Kyle Garlick, OF Rob Refsnyder, and P John Gant were waived from the 40 man, went unclaimed, and elected free agency. They are no longer our worry, or taking up space on the 40 man. However, they claimed P Jharel Cotton off waivers from the Texas Rangers, so there is a spot taken again. They also activated P Lewis Thorpe, P Cody Stashak, P Kenta Maeda, OF Alex Kiriloff, P Devin Smeltzer, P Taylor Rogers, and P Randy Dobnak. As of writing this piece, the Twins have 37 names on the 40 man roster. This number needs to get a lot smaller, and that's exactly what we're going to do. Pitchers - Jharel Cotton - Danny Coulombe - Ralph Garza Jr. - Devin Smeltzer - Lewis Thorpe I do not think any of these names are particularly surprising, and there are two more names that are on the fence, for me at least. Those two names are Cody Stashak and Juan Minaya, but they'll stay for now, but if we find ourselves making a big trade, or with leftover money late in the spring, we'll have no problem cutting bait. Cotton was just claimed, but he likely isn't a stud reliever, and I'll risk passing him through waivers once again. Coulombe was okay as a lefty reliever, but we have 3 stud lefties -- Taylor Rogers, Caleb Thielbar, and Jovani Moran. We can sign 5 more Danny Coulombe's to MiLB deals following the R5 draft if we're really missing him. Garza, a mid-year waiver claim, pitched okay out of the bullpen, but only struck out 7 per 9 innings. We saw how pitch to contact relievers can bite you, didn't we Alex? Smeltzer and Thorpe are both often injured, and not very good. They will be sandwhiched by off-season signings, and the next wave of Twins pitching prospects. Hitters - Willians Astudillo - Jake Cave - Brent Rooker Look, I love La Tortuga as much as anyone does, but he simply isn't a very good baseball player. The Twins certainly don't trust him at catcher anymore, and he doesn't have a natural position in the field. His bat, while exciting and maybe even much watch, are not good at-bats most of the time. Jake Cave is as frustrating of a player as I can remember, and I don't think I need to say anything more. Rooker is probably a controversial waive, and I would be somewhat surprised if the actual Twins front office decides to make this move, but the former 1st rounder had a rough 60 game stretch, and he doesn't have a spot on the field. You could rotate him through the DH position, but there are other Twins players I'd much rather give those at-bats to. Of course I would try to trade him first, but I am not going through the work to find a random A- reliever that I really love! Much like the pitching side of things, there is one other player who I was on the fence about, but for now we'll keep him. That player is Nick Gordon, but he may not be here through the (hypothetical) winter. The 40 man roster now sits at 28 players. Arbitration - P Caleb Thielbar - 1.2M (Tender) - OF Byron Buxton - 7.3M (Tender, work on a long-term extension) - P Tyler Duffey - 3.7M (Tender) - P Juan Minaya - 1.1M (Tender) - P Taylor Rogers - 6.7M (Tender) - C Mitch Garver - 3.1M (Tender) - IF Luis Arraez - 2M (Tender) That is that. We tender every single player who is eligible that is still on my 40 man. Of course, you may see the Twins non-tender a player like Jake Cave or Willians Astudillo, but we already took care of that by waving them from the 40-man roster. At the end of the day, it's the same difference. Additions Here in Mill1634's world, we try to avoid Akil Baddoo situations, and I'll attempt to take care of that again right now. There are a handful of players who need to be added to the 40 man roster, or you risk losing them to the rule 5 draft. - SS Royce Lewis - P Josh Winder - IF Jose Miranda - P Cole Sands - P Blayne Enlow These 5 names bring us to 33 names on the 40 man roster, which gives us room for 7 additions through trade or free agency, which should be enough, but as I previously mentioned, there are still some names that can be removed from the 40 man if needed. Royce Lewis is a no brianer protection, as are Josh Winder and Jose Miranda. Cole Sands is not a top pitching prospect, but he just posted fantastic numbers in the minors, and we'll protect him for now. Blayne Enlow is injured, so a team could nab him and place him on the injured list when eligible next year, but we can do that ourselves, and there is no reason to lose him for nothing. Unprotected - IF Yunior Severino - P Chris Vallimont - P Jordan Gore - OF Mark Contreras None of these names are top prospects, but they've been mentioned plenty of times on Twins Daily. Severino is coming off an okay year, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see a claim him in the R5 draft, but I'm not overly worried about that possibility. Vallimont, acquired in the Sergio Romo trade a few years ago, has fantastic stuff but doesn't have the control needed to make a difference right now. If someone wants to give him a shot in a major league bullpen, fine. I'd expect him to be returned if his BB/9 is above 6 again. Gore, a former hitting prospect, is intriguing but is 27 years old and only has 70 innings pitched in the minors. I don't think too many teams will be interested. Contreras, an outfielder, is in a similar situation to Gore. He is a great outfielder, and finally broke out at the plate, but is already 27 years old. Again, I'm not too worried about losing him. And with that, part 1 of my off-season blueprint has come to an end. In the next few days, part 2 will come to fruition where we make some fun additions to the squad with the hope of competing in 2022.