The 7 Biggest Decisions for the Twins' Offseason: Should They Try to Bring Ryan Jeffers Back?

[Sam Caulder]

Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images

Postseason baseball is in full swing, and the Twins are not a participant. That means it’s time to shift the focus to this offseason and beyond, and the Twins will have some important decisions to make this winter. One of those decisions is what to do — or what not to do — with catcher Ryan Jeffers.

Jeffers had a career year offensively in 2026, slashing .256/.353/.461 for an impressive .814 OPS. After a few seasons of inconsistent production at the plate, he finally put everything together offensively and established himself as one of the more productive catchers in the league. And while he’s not known for his elite blocking and receiving, or his ability to gun down runners trying to steal a base, the Twins had the most successful ABS challenges of any team this year. A lot of that is because of Jeffers.

He’s developed into one of the better catchers in the league, but there’s one pretty significant problem: He’s no longer under contract. Which brings us to the question of whether the Twins should make an attempt at bringing him back. The general consensus around this situation is that Jeffers is probably gone this winter, and I don’t disagree that that’s the likeliest outcome. But if I’m the Twins, I’m doing what I can to bring him back for next year, and potentially even longer than that.

With league-wide spending likely looking radically different next season due to the negotiations around the new Collective Bargaining Agreement, the Twins will be one of the many teams that need to increase their budget. In the MLB owners’ initial proposal back in July, there was a proposed salary cap and salary floor, with the salary floor set at $171.2 million. For context, the Twins’ payroll in 2026 was around $115 million. They’re going to have to spend some money anyway, and I think there’s a strong case to be made for Jeffers to get some of that money.

If Jeffers is out the door, Minnesota’s starting catcher for next year would likely be Victor Caratini. He posted a .627 OPS this year. His glove behind the dish is much better than his bat, but a low-.600s OPS hitter just isn’t startable, even at catcher, which isn’t exactly known for being a strong offensive position. Unless the Twins want Caratini starting 100 games next year, they’re going to need someone else until someone like Vahn Lackey or Eduardo Tait is ready for the majors. I’d argue spending more to bring Jeffers back makes more sense than signing or trading for someone else. He’s already familiar with the pitching staff, and has proven he can provide legitimate offensive production at a position where that’s especially valuable.

 

The first and biggest decision the Twins will have to make is whether to offer Jeffers the qualifying offer. The qualifying offer is expected to be worth roughly $24 million this offseason, which is a heck of a lot of money for a catcher. According to Dan Hayes of The Athletic, Jeffers would be unlikely to accept it. But if the Twins offer it to him and he signs elsewhere this winter, they’d receive a draft pick following the first round. The problem might be what happens if Jeffers actually accepts.

The Twins’ baseline payroll is expected to be around $110 million for next season, so a $24 million qualifying offer would immediately push that number upward of $130 million. That would leave a pretty significant chunk of the Twins’ payroll already spoken for, and just how can we expect the Pohlads to increase the payroll? It’s easy to say they should bring him back after the season he just had, but $24 million for one year is a massive commitment for a team with a limited budget. There’s a very real possibility the Twins decide that number is simply too high and let Jeffers walk rather than risk having that much money tied up in one player for one season.

The other option is a multi-year deal. This would obviously be tougher to pull off, since Jeffers is coming off a career year and the catcher market continues to evolve. Caratini just signed a two-year, $14 million deal this past offseason, and Jeffers would certainly be worth a lot more than that after his 2026 season.

Across the league, the top four catcher contracts in terms of annual average value are Cal Raleigh at $17.5 million, J.T. Realmuto at $15 million, Will Smith at $14 million and Salvador Perez at $12.5 million. However, not all of those contracts are the same. Realmuto and Perez are older catchers on shorter deals, whereas Raleigh and Smith are on longer-term deals, and both are around the same age as Jeffers.

Given his production this year, Jeffers is going to be looking for as big of a contract as he can get. He’s 29 years old, coming off the best offensive season of his career and entering free agency as easily the best catcher available. And with Scott Boras representing him, I don’t think the Twins should expect to get him on a short two- or three-year deal at a discount. A four-year, $60 million contract would probably be closer to the floor than the ceiling, and something in the neighborhood of $80 million might be more realistic. 

I’d still be interested in bringing Jeffers back, but committing at least $60 million to him over four (or more) years is a much bigger decision than simply giving him the qualifying offer. Especially when the Twins have Lackey and Tait in the organization and presumably hope one or both of them can eventually take over behind the plate.

That doesn’t mean a long-term deal wouldn’t make sense. Jeffers has proven he can be a productive offensive catcher, and having him around for the next few years would give the Twins a legitimate answer at a position that has been somewhat difficult to figure out. But they’d have to be comfortable committing a significant amount of money to him while also knowing that their top catching prospects could eventually make that contract more difficult to justify.

Minnesota will have to decide on the qualifying offer for Jeffers within five days of the World Series ending, so we’ll have a lot more information then. It would obviously be great to have someone like Jeffers behind the plate, but the business side of things might make that a lot tougher for the Twins.

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[thelanges5]

C is a black hole position. I think they have to offer the QO but then be prepared for him to not accept it. They cannot roll into 2027 with Caratini as the starter. 

[bjorks]

I've been saying this since RJ returned from the broken hand, the QO is a no brainer simply for the comp pick. It's only a "bad" deal financially (hypothetically) for 1 year. My arguement is simply what's the alternative? Caratini is exactly who he's been his entire career - a streaky (usually 1x a year) hitter and capable defender who is nothing more than a backup catcher, who can play 1B in a pinch. The fact we're paying $7 next year is laughable.

Similar to 1B, unless it comes via a trade, there's not much of an upgrade/equivalent to RJ on the market either. Regardless I'd rather overpay for a one additional year of Jeffers than ANY alternative short of a trade bringing that Ohtani guy here.

I believe it was Rick Pitino who said it best "Butch Wynegar isn't coming through that door. Mark Salas isn't coming through that door and Sal Butera isn't coming through that door."

 

[ashbury]

There are various ways of paying the Failure Penalty, in this case the failure to develop a catcher since Jeffers himself, and no matter what form it takes it's always painful/contentious. Because, well, it's a penalty.

[Linus]

1 minute ago, ashbury said:

There are various ways of paying the Failure Penalty, in this case the failure to develop a catcher since Jeffers himself, and no matter what form it takes it's always painful/contentious. Because, well, it's a penalty.

I love the concept of a failure penalty. We might need Pythagoras to calculate the actual number if we go back to Mauer. 

[HerbieFan]

Tom Pohlad wants to "meaningfully invest" in the team.  Without Jeffers THE biggest hole will be at catcher.  They're going to have to bring in a catcher one way or another.  So....ummmm.....YES!!

[jmlease1]

I would certainly offer Jeffers the QO. To me, I think it's highly unlikely that he accepts it, but even if he does, the Twins could definitely work with that (presuming that Tom Pohlad is serious about payroll increasing; always a nervous bet with a Pohlad!). We have exciting catching prospects in the minors, but Caratini is less exciting as a bridge option to carry the bulk of the load than he might have seemed when the deal was done.

But I would go 1 step further and look to sign Jeffers to a longer deal. I suspect he'll get priced out of contention for what the Twins and the front office are willing to consider, but Jeffers RH bat is precisely what this lineup needs. Him holding up at catcher for the full 4 seasons he's almost certainly going to get is unlikely...but also not something the Twins need to fear at the same level as other teams might. His skill set translates well to transitioning out of "full-time" catching, whether that's more time at DH or playing some 1B and any concerns you might have over Jeffers being unhappy at playing less at catcher should be alleviated just fine by the big numbers in his paycheck. Much easier for him to accept a time-share when he's not playing for the biggest contract of his life.

I'd do 4 years and $60M in a heartbeat. Frankly, I'd go up to 4 years and $80M. (I think it's almost impossible to sign him for less than 4 years) Another real question is what if he wants 5 years? I highly doubt the Twins will do 5 for $100...and that's probably too rich for my blood too. But what if he'd do 5 for $80? I'd jump on that and worry about year 5 down the road.

My fear is he's going to get 5 for $100M+ from the Yankees. But I'd definitely make a run at keeping Jeffers and not just as a "wanna take a hometown discount"? Make the goddamn Yankees pay, and pay through the nose if they want him.