The 7 Biggest Decisions for the Twins’ Offseason: Tender, Trade or Let Bailey Ober Walk?

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of © Daniel Kucin Jr.-Imagn Images

The Minnesota Twins have a lot of questions to answer this offseason. The starting rotation is one of them. There is plenty of uncertainty surrounding the group heading into 2027. Pablo López is working his way back from elbow surgery. Joe Ryan could be a trade candidate. Younger pitchers like Connor Prielipp and Zebby Matthews are trying to establish themselves as long-term rotation pieces.

Then there is Bailey Ober. Ober entered the 2026 season looking to rebound from the worst season of his career. He struggled through velocity concerns and inconsistency in 2025, posting a 5.10 ERA across 146 1/3 innings. His 2026 campaign was better, but it still didn't resemble the version of Ober who looked like a dependable mid-rotation starter in previous seasons. Ober finished 2026 with a 4.47 ERA over 25 games and 131 innings. He struck out 96 hitters while posting a 1.30 WHIP. 

Now the Twins have to determine whether to tender Ober a contract for 2027. Technically, this is a non-tender decision rather than simply "offering arbitration." Ober remains under team control and is entering his third and final year of arbitration eligibility. He made $5.2 million in 2026 and would become a free agent after the 2027 season. That makes this a fascinating decision for Jeremy Zoll and the Twins.

The Pros of Tendering Bailey Ober

The biggest reason to keep Ober is simple: He has already demonstrated that he can be a quality major-league starter even with his diminished velocity. The 2026 season wasn't great, but it was an improvement over 2025. More importantly, Ober's track record includes a 2024 season in which he made 31 starts, threw 178 2/3 innings and struck out 191 hitters. He posted a 3.98 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP that season.

Ober also finished 2026 healthy enough to make 25 appearances, despite missing time earlier in the year with right elbow inflammation. The Twins shut him down in May, but an MRI showed that the UCL graft from his previous Tommy John surgery remained intact.

There is also the matter of the current rotation depth. Even with López expected back and several young arms in the major league mix, the Twins can't assume every pitcher will remain healthy or take the expected developmental step. Ober gives Minnesota another experienced option.

His 2027 salary is likely to be higher than the $5.2 million he made this season, but the organization should have a pretty good idea of the range before making its decision. MLB Trade Rumors estimates he will receive around $6.9M. That's far from exact - last year they estimated he would make $4.6M and he ended up making $5.2M - but it's in the ballpark. That makes the potential cost increase worth considering, especially for a pitcher who has already provided nearly 750 major-league innings in his career.

The Cons of Tendering Bailey Ober

There is a legitimate argument for moving on. Ober has now experienced two consecutive seasons that fell well short of his early career performance. His 5.10 ERA in 2025 was a career high, and his 4.47 ERA in 2026 still left him well above the level he established from 2022 through 2024. The underlying concern goes beyond his ERA.

Ober's strikeout rate dropped considerably as his velocity declined. His fastball averaged 91.7 mph in 2024 and had greater deception due to his elite arm extension (97th percentile). His fastball only averaged 88.0 mph this year, and that isn’t sustainable for a big-league pitcher. He went from 26.9 K% in 2024 to 19.2 K% in 2025, and only 17.1 K% in 2026. His strikeout rate fell to 6.60 per nine innings this year, compared with 9.62 in 2024.

That is a significant change. Then there is the way the Twins used him late in the season. After returning from the injured list, Ober made 11 starts, but six came with at least six days of rest. He also made the first relief appearance of his career and was placed on relatively short leashes during his final stretch of starts. This unusual usage could indicate that his future with Minnesota is uncertain.

The financial side matters, too. Ober is entering his final arbitration year, meaning Minnesota would be paying a raise for a pitcher who could leave as a free agent after 2027. The Twins could decide that the money is better spent elsewhere, particularly if they believe their younger pitchers can fill Ober's innings. That doesn't mean Ober has no value. It means the Twins have to determine how much that value is worth in a season where every dollar may matter.

What Would the Timeline Look Like?

The Twins don't have to make this decision immediately. Ober's contract decision will come during the early portion of the offseason, when Minnesota has a chance to evaluate its entire pitching situation. The club can look at the health of López, the potential for a Ryan trade, the development of its younger starters and the rest of the free-agent pitching market before making its final determination.

The key deadline is the non-tender date. Under the current collective bargaining agreement, clubs must tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players by the last Friday before Thanksgiving, which is November 20th. A player who isn't tendered becomes a free agent.

This offseason comes with an additional wrinkle. The current collective bargaining agreement expires on December 1, 2026, which could affect the offseason calendar. That makes the period leading up to the tender deadline even more important.

The Twins could also explore a trade before deciding to non-tender Ober. An arbitration-eligible starting pitcher with a history of major-league success could have more value on the trade market than he would simply being released. Minnesota could find a club willing to take on Ober's arbitration salary while getting something back. That would give the Twins another option besides keeping him or cutting him loose.

Ober's situation isn't nearly as straightforward as it appeared a couple seasons ago. At one point, Ober looked like one of the safest starters in the Twins' rotation. His 2022-24 seasons provided plenty of evidence that he could handle a substantial workload while missing bats and limiting baserunners.

The last two seasons have changed the conversation. Ober struggled badly in 2025, improved in 2026 and still finished the year with questions surrounding his role. The elbow inflammation adds another consideration, though the Twins received encouraging news when his UCL graft was found intact.

Now Minnesota has to put a price tag on the next chapter. Tender Ober, and the Twins get another opportunity to see whether he can rediscover the pitcher he was as recently as 2024. Non-tender him, and the organization creates another opening in a rotation that already has plenty of uncertainty. 

There is also a third path: tender Ober and explore the trade market. That might be particularly interesting if another organization believes it can get more out of him than Minnesota did during the past two seasons. 

The Twins don't need to decide whether Ober is the pitcher he was in 2024 or the pitcher he has been over the last two seasons. They need to decide whether they believe the pitcher capable of producing those 2024 results is still worth paying for one more season. That will be one of the more interesting calls of the Twins' offseason.

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Should the Twins non-tender Ober? Can he help the rotation in 2027? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

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[D.C Twins]

At 6.9 million for only a 1 year commitment for rotational depth that is ALWAYS needed, I say tender. 

I completely understand why others may want to let him walk, but I have a suspicion that he will be helpful overall next year.  

[tony&rodney]

The Twins can keep Bailey Ober or use him in a transaction. Ober has value. Arizona would like a top of the rotation arm but could easily roster a back end starter/ bullpen arm like Ober. See what a conversation yields with the Diamondbacks. The Twins might find Jordan Lawlar and/or Justin Martinez as useful depth pieces and Arizona could use some combination of Ober, Royce Lewis, and Trevor Larnach. The Twins need to be proactive from now to December.

[MeleMouth]

All of these questions remind me of Let's Make a Deal, when you have to make a decision about whether to keep something or trade it for what's behind Door Number Two, without knowing what that is.

[HerbieFan]

With what pitching costs, if you knew you'd get 130 innings at a 4.50 ERA again I think you'd tender him.  But man that 88mph "heater" terrifies me.  He is relying solely on extension and deception...not a great recipe.  If I had to choose a guess, I'd say they non-tender him.

[Mike Sixel]

You playing to win, or having a mediocre floor? Because if he's on the roster, then a better younger pitcher isn't. Unless you think he's a RP....

[Andy MacPhail]

IMO. no doubt, tender him if you can't find a trade. 

[Muppet]

The twins would be crazy to let him go. Teams that had the ability to compete would be crazy to keep him. 

[Mike Sixel]

12 minutes ago, Andy MacPhail said:

IMO. no doubt, tender him if you can't find a trade. 

So which pitcher isn't on the roster, if Lopez, Ryan, Ober and Kremer are? Preilipp? Matthews? Abel? Bradley? Because all four of those have higher upside than Ober. At some point, you have to play to win. 

[MeleMouth]

17 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

You playing to win, or having a mediocre floor? Because if he's on the roster, then a better younger pitcher isn't. Unless you think he's a RP....

This is true as true gets and I'm a big proponent of playing the young guys instead of the expensive, low ceiling veterans, except in this case who could be that "better younger pitcher?" At this point, Rojas should get opportunities ahead of Ober, sink or swim, but the Twins have rarely given chances like that because it doesn't fit into their messaging of "competitive baseball."  Other than Rojas, there really isn't anyone at else at AA or AAA who is deserving of even a chance. Andrew Morris or Mike Paredes would be next?

As you say, a possibility could be Ober to the bullpen to see if he is better there and to be a failsafe for the rotation.

Maybe it depends on whether the Twins decide to trade any of their other starters and what they think they can get back. 

[sweetmusicviola16]

My take, I personally enjoy watching a guy that has learned the art of pitching. Not just ramping it up and throwing the ball as hard as he can. Bailey is doing this. As far as tendering or not it comes down to do you have confidence in who is already on the team or in the system to replace his IP? Or do you have a potential trading partner who will trade you someone who can fill another need? If the answers to the first are yes then non tender and keep the lines open to a potential FA signing at a lower price. As far as needing Bailey Ober to win in 2027 as this team stands right now that isn't an issue. This team isn't at the point of winning yet. imo. 

As far as what to do I would non tender. I like Ober but I'd rather see the youngsters have more oppurtunity to play since I don't see the Twins as competitive in 2027. 

[Mike Sixel]

8 minutes ago, MeleMouth said:

This is true as true gets and I'm a big proponent of playing the young guys instead of the expensive, low ceiling veterans, except in this case who could be that "better younger pitcher?" At this point, Rojas should get opportunities ahead of Ober, sink or swim, but the Twins have rarely given chances like that because it doesn't fit into their messaging of "competitive baseball."  Other than Rojas, there really isn't anyone at else at AA or AAA who is deserving of even a chance. Andrew Morris or Mike Paredes would be next?

As you say, a possibility could be Ober to the bullpen to see if he is better there and to be a failsafe for the rotation.

Maybe it depends on whether the Twins decide to trade any of their other starters and what they think they can get back. 

I mean, if you are moving him to the bullpen, that's fine. But as a starter? There are at least three young guys that would be in AAA, instead of the majors. 

[TJSweens]

No way would I tender Ober unless it was to trade him.

It's absurd to think he could ever return to anything close to his 2024 form. His year over year drop in velo and strike outs make it a long shot that he could even repeat 2026. 

Ober would just be in the way of a more deserving young arm. Right now the mix is Lopez, Ryan & Bradley with Able, Prielipp and Matthews competing for 2 slots. Beyond that, the Twins still project Rojas as a starter. Even if he starts the year in the pen, he can easily out to start if there are injuries. Ober, likely over $7M guarantees that 3 of those pitchers start the year in AAA or the bullpen and that makes no sense.

[MeleMouth]

49 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I mean, if you are moving him to the bullpen, that's fine. But as a starter? There are at least three young guys that would be in AAA, instead of the majors. 

Best for the long-term health of the team would be to have a 2027 rotation of Bradley, Abel, Prielipp, Matthews, Tolle, and Rojas, with money spent on other positions, and hopes of Dasan Hill, Riley Quick, and Charlee Soto making progress, but that isn't going to happen.

The retention or loss of Ober won't matter much, but considering the way the team is typically put together and the risk of injuries, having him in the bullpen and as an emergency starter could be an OK way to go.

You would be keeping him to have someone reliable in the pen and not have to pull a Dallas Keuchel off his porch.

[bean5302]

Ober and Kremer have no options so tendering them means they must be on the roster, and they're both questionably with a rotation spot on a playoff caliber team. If the Twins aren't aiming for the playoffs next year, it matters even less because the Twins can just take a full season to get to know the rest of their young starters. Neither pitcher will likely be worth their salary as a reliever by a long shot so that's not a good option if they pitch poorly, either.

Between the two, Kremer is probably better, and he'll be a little cheaper. If the Twins are going to keep one, it should be Kremer. 

Sign and trade doesn't make sense. At $7MM, Ober would be at market value so the only thing the Twins could potentially do is eat Ober's entire salary and trade him for a lower level prospect or two.

The Twins should probably non-tender Ober, though, again, I don't think this is a big question the Twins need to make.

[LA Vikes Fan]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

I mean, if you are moving him to the bullpen, that's fine. But as a starter? There are at least three young guys that would be in AAA, instead of the majors. 

I agree and think moving Ober to the bullpen is exactly the right move. We will need a long man/piggyback for guys like Prielipp and Kremer. There was a game late in the season where Kremer went six innings, Ober three, both pitched well and the Twins got a win. That’s how I’d like to see Ober used next year and roughly $7 million is a reasonable price to pay for that guy.besides, Ober was only a five inning starter last year so this isn’t a huge change in his role, just a recognition of what he can do well at this stage in his career.

I think they’re planning to trade Ryan personally. I see the rotation next year as Lopez, Bradley, Preilipp, Kremer, and one of Zebby, Abel or Rojas, with the other two heading the AAA rotation as starting depth. Having Ober as a Long man in the bullpen who can be ramped up to a five inning starter, helps with the depth and is worth the money. 

[bean5302]

1 minute ago, LA Vikes Fan said:

I agree and think moving Ober to the bullpen is exactly the right move. We will need a long man/piggyback for guys like Prielipp and Kremer. There was a game late in the season where Kremer went six innings, Ober three, both pitched well and the Twins got a win. That’s how I’d like to see Ober used next year and roughly $7 million is a reasonable price to pay for that guy.besides, Ober was only a five inning starter last year so this isn’t a huge change in his role, just a recognition of what he can do well at this stage in his career.

I think they’re planning to trade Ryan personally. I see the rotation next year as Lopez, Bradley, Preilipp, Kremer, and one of Zebby, Abel or Rojas, with the other two heading the AAA rotation as starting depth. Having Ober as a Long man in the bullpen who can be ramped up to a five inning starter, helps with the depth and is worth the money. 

You want to spend $7MM on Ober as a reliever next year?

[sweetmusicviola16]

47 minutes ago, MeleMouth said:

Best for the long-term health of the team would be to have a 2027 rotation of Bradley, Abel, Prielipp, Matthews, Tolle, and Rojas, with money spent on other positions, and hopes of Dasan Hill, Riley Quick, and Charlee Soto making progress, but that isn't going to happen.

The retention or loss of Ober won't matter much, but considering the way the team is typically put together and the risk of injuries, having him in the bullpen and as an emergency starter could be an OK way to go.

You would be keeping him to have someone reliable in the pen and not have to pull a Dallas Keuchel off his porch.

You probably made a typo or something, but Hill is a Jay. Taking 3.75 mil from a team when you trade for a guy at the deadline causes you to have to up the anty to a Hill type. Ahem Tom.

[MeleMouth]

1 hour ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

You probably made a typo or something, but Hill is a Jay. Taking 3.75 mil from a team when you trade for a guy at the deadline causes you to have to up the anty to a Hill type. Ahem Tom.

Thanks. And Tolle is on the Red Sox.

[Brandon]

To Ober or not to Ober? That is the question.  I think it would be easy to find a trade partner for him.  I. Say we Ober.  Worst case is he starts the season in the rotation and is traded when another team has a need.  Someone will have a need.  It's a good way to buy/ get more prospects.  

[sweetmusicviola16]

I'm an Ober fan. When he was quite dominant and even now when he's not. But it is time to see more of Matthews, Prielipp, Festa, Abel and Rojas. Even if they fail or get injured. So imo it is time to move on from Bailey. I could care less what he would get paid. Tom's got lots of money. It's about getting these younger guys into pitch. What was the point of trading Duran and Varland if you don't use what they brought us?

[nicksaviking]

5 hours ago, D.C Twins said:

At 6.9 million for only a 1 year commitment for rotational depth that is ALWAYS needed, I say tender. 

I completely understand why others may want to let him walk, but I have a suspicion that he will be helpful overall next year.  

But he's not depth, because if you tender him, they will 100% be stuck starting him. He can't go to AAA. And throwing 85 MPH fastballs is absolutely not acceptable for the bullpen.

The Twins are constantly doing this; deciding between 'depth' and rostering the best team. And it always backfires. Roster your best players, because these vet 'depth' players can almost always be just a easily replicated off of the waiver wire.

Add to the TOP of the roster, and push guys like Ober down or off of the roster. That's wat winning teams do.

And I like Ober, he's been an unexpectedly good Twin. He'll always have a special spot in Twins lore. 

[Vanimal46]

Thanks for the memories Bailey Ober. It’s time to move on. His margins are razor thin with his velocity. I’m not buying the deception/smoke and mirrors next year. 

[TheLeviathan]

I non-tender him unless we make some aggressive trades from our rotation.  Then I bring him back just to give Rojas and others time to develop.

But I don't see us trading Ryan and Lopez given the current direction ownership is pushing.

[SE23]

8 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

The Twins can keep Bailey Ober or use him in a transaction. Ober has value. Arizona would like a top of the rotation arm but could easily roster a back end starter/ bullpen arm like Ober. See what a conversation yields with the Diamondbacks. The Twins might find Jordan Lawlar and/or Justin Martinez as useful depth pieces and Arizona could use some combination of Ober, Royce Lewis, and Trevor Larnach. The Twins need to be proactive from now to December.

Ober, Larnach, Lewis and Martin for Ketel Marte.🤩

 

[TheLeviathan]

11 minutes ago, SE23 said:

Ober, Larnach, Lewis and Martin for Ketel Marte.🤩

 

I'm not sure if this or the post it replied to are being sarcastic?  

We don't want anything to do with Ketel Marte.  If you don't know why, the short version is he's a pretty bad teammate and not someone you want in your clubhouse.

And no...Justin Martinez and Jordan Lawler aren't coming here for the dregs of our 26 man roster either.  

[DocBauer]

I think what Ober did this season as an old school "crafty" SP was borderline amazing, and definitely fun to watch. But I am just not of the belief that he can do it again. 

If this was some of the Twins rotations we had in the teens, I'd probably keep him and cross my fingers. In many of those years, they had few good options. But currently, we have Lopez, Ryan,  Bradley, Abel, Prielipp, Matthews, and Kremer. 

And it's not like you can just "collect" arms and stash them on some mystery roster in case you need them. They have to be rostered. I don't like the idea of sending Abel, Prielipp, or Matthews down just because they have options and you can. And I don't see Ober and his 88mph FB in the bullpen, especially at $7M. I'd much rather that $7M be part of a resigning of Minter for the bullpen. (Betting $7-8M would get it done). 

Is there a team out there really short on SP options that could see taking a shot on Ober as a smart play for the back end of their rotation? I'm sure there are. Baltimore comes to mind. So maybe there is possible trade value for Bailey to someone. But with all due respect to him and how much he's meant to the Twins in the past, it's time to move on. 

[SE23]

23 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

I'm not sure if this or the post it replied to are being sarcastic?  

We don't want anything to do with Ketel Marte.  If you don't know why, the short version is he's a pretty bad teammate and not someone you want in your clubhouse.

And no...Justin Martinez and Jordan Lawler aren't coming here for the dregs of our 26 man roster either.  

My bad. I researched Marte and hereby rescind my suggested transaction. Dude is bad voodoo.

[Bangkok Twins Fan]

18 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

The Twins need to be proactive from now to December.

I always enjoy your posts, and I respect your opinion so I'm asking this question out of sheer curiosity. Why will December be the timeline for the Twins to make any transactions? I realize the upcoming labor agreement and potential lockout is a factor, but I'm fuzzy about what sort of strategy the Twins will or won't have in regards to moves during this odd off-season. Do you think they will truly be active?

[killercarewoliva]

I am not familiar with this arbitration situation. A pitcher has a losing record and a very high own run average yet he's eligible for an increase in pay. I do not understand that if you do your job better then arbitration can give you more money. but if you do your job poorly, they can change it to a lower figure. that's what I thought the way things would work but evidently not especially in the case with a player. I love to watch play baseball and his name is Bailey ober. it is very foolish to give somebody millions of dollars who are only going to get five wins for you the whole season. that's crazy. why would any baseball team do that? and why would the arbitrator do that? The determining factor seems to be the amount of years you've played rather than your production. keeping in mind here. once I tap that little bell, I can only read one message. then everything is gone. alrighty time to get to my worship event. it is Sunday..