The 7 Biggest Decisions for the Twins’ Offseason: Tender, Trade or Let Bailey Ober Walk?

[Dawgzilla]

People, let's get real here:

1). There will be a loooonnnnggg strike to start next year; players won't give up the right to earn as much as they can, let alone rights to free agency clauses!!!!!!

2). Ober's arm is gassed, er um, shot...tops out at 88....no thanks, especially for 7 mil., or more!!!

3). Twins keep Ryan, Lopez, Bradley, Preilliep, and an acquired mid level starter next year (remember Pohlad said they would up the payroll..significantly 😉😉, but also remember..payrolls will be more balanced once the strike is finished, so he...Pohlad won't have a choice😉😉).

 

MLB wants to have more salary balance between teams; right now just hand trophy to the Dodgers annually, with Yankees, Phillies, Cubs, Braves, Red Sox always filling in occasionally as next runnerup annually, meaning always filling playoff spots do to high payrolls (and, I know, having high payrolls doesn't guarantee anything, but I would take my odds to Vegas though)!  😎. I will say Tampa and Cleveland have done exceptionally well with low payrolls annually though... touche'! 

Keep young position player studs, outside Royce (trade), in addition to finding a couple multi-position players (not scrap heap either) to fill in when others need a rest.

Next year, I would want to be ultra aggressive on base paths, putting more pressure on other teams pitchers, catchers and outfielders with base gambling...I like my odds there!!!  Better odds of winning %-wise, plus, makes games more interesting and exciting.

Lastly, more in-game sound effects/music, like Yankee Stadium; we don't go to funerals and cemeteries to watch games!!!!!!!  We need an "experience", especially when you need to take out a loan just to see a game with a family!!!!

 

Your welcome!  Go Wild 🏒 

 

 

 

[Jeff K]

16 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

I mean, if you are moving him to the bullpen, that's fine. But as a starter? There are at least three young guys that would be in AAA, instead of the majors. 

I don't think the Twins should keep Ober as a starting pitcher; however, he has value as a 5th starter and ought to be tradeable or kept as a relief pitcher.

[DJL44]

15 hours ago, bean5302 said:

You want to spend $7MM on Ober as a reliever next year?

Sure. His numbers the first time through the order are better than Yoendrys Gomez pitched in 2026. That’s without the  2mph boost he’s likely to get pitching as a reliever. You are unlikely to find a better free agent reliever for 1 year, $7M. Would you rather have Ober or 39-year old Kenley Jansen?

[sampleSizeOfOne]

I was all poised to give the obligatory (in game threads at least) answer of "yes" until i noticed you omitted an option.

We could sign him to a long term contract.

 

Granted, he may be too expensive already to "Dobnak", but it merits at least a brief consideration.

[TL]

When you look at one year starting pitcher free agent contracts from last year you would do well to get what Ober can provide at 7mm. The problem is the twins have internal options that have higher upside at much less cost, and will anybody trade something of value for the privilege of paying that price?
 

My lien is to not let him walk for nothing, but maybe there is a trade where he can be a piece of it as opposed to just getting back a C level prospect. 

[DJL44]

It's not that easy to find comps for Ober as a reliever because anyone worth more than $6M a season is getting a 2-year deal.

Relievers who signed for 1 year, $5-7M last season and their 2026 results

Phil Maton (got a 2 year, $14.5M deal) 27.2 IP, 6.18 ERA, 5.49 FIP

Pierce Johnson $6.5M 48.2 IP, 4.62 ERA, 4.68 FIP

Evan Phillips $6.5M 26 IP, 3.46 ERA, 3.87 FIP

Hunter Harvey $6M 4IP, 6.75 ERA, 8.35 FIP

Shawn Armstrong $5.5M 35.1 IP, 4.58 ERA, 4.43 FIP

Kirby Yates $4.5M 42.1 IP, 3.19 ERA, 3.20 FIP

Do people here doubt Ober could provide 50 innings of 4.50 ERA pitching out of the bullpen after doing it for 130 innings in 2026? That's what you get for $6M on the free agent market.

Ober's 2026 stats the first time through the lineup are a .613 OPS against (.210/.276/.337) with 18 runs allowed in 225 plate appearances. For reference, Jeff Hoffman had a .671 OPS against with 33 runs allowed in 292 PA. AJ Minter had a .697 OPS against with 16 runs allowed in 186 PA.

Raisel Iglesias had a .620 OPS with 21 runs allowed in 239 PA (60 IP). He made $16M last season. That's your comp for what Bailey Ober did the first time through the lineup this year. Ober has elite closer numbers the first time he faces batters.

[Patzky]

18 hours ago, Andy MacPhail said:

IMO. no doubt, tender him if you can't find a trade. 

Implying that one exists.

[Patzky]

18 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

So which pitcher isn't on the roster, if Lopez, Ryan, Ober and Kremer are? Preilipp? Matthews? Abel? Bradley? Because all four of those have higher upside than Ober. At some point, you have to play to win. 

It will take a major stroke of luck for all of the pitchers you named to be heathy and effective simultaneously.

[MeleMouth]

1 hour ago, Dawgzilla said:

People, let's get real here:

1). There will be a loooonnnnggg strike to start next year; players won't give up the right to earn as much as they can, let alone rights to free agency clauses!!!!!!

2). Ober's arm is gassed, er um, shot...tops out at 88....no thanks, especially for 7 mil., or more!!!

3). Twins keep Ryan, Lopez, Bradley, Preilliep, and an acquired mid level starter next year (remember Pohlad said they would up the payroll..significantly 😉😉, but also remember..payrolls will be more balanced once the strike is finished, so he...Pohlad won't have a choice😉😉).

 

MLB wants to have more salary balance between teams; right now just hand trophy to the Dodgers annually, with Yankees, Phillies, Cubs, Braves, Red Sox always filling in occasionally as next runnerup annually, meaning always filling playoff spots do to high payrolls (and, I know, having high payrolls doesn't guarantee anything, but I would take my odds to Vegas though)!  😎. I will say Tampa and Cleveland have done exceptionally well with low payrolls annually though... touche'! 

Keep young position player studs, outside Royce (trade), in addition to finding a couple multi-position players (not scrap heap either) to fill in when others need a rest.

Next year, I would want to be ultra aggressive on base paths, putting more pressure on other teams pitchers, catchers and outfielders with base gambling...I like my odds there!!!  Better odds of winning %-wise, plus, makes games more interesting and exciting.

Lastly, more in-game sound effects/music, like Yankee Stadium; we don't go to funerals and cemeteries to watch games!!!!!!!  We need an "experience", especially when you need to take out a loan just to see a game with a family!!!!

 

Your welcome!  Go Wild 🏒 

 

 

 

Do you want more than "Everybody clap your hands!"

[David Maro]

They changed manager and coaches and had the same results. Time to change the roster or will again have the same results. Shelton has aloud SP to go 100 pitches time and time again and Ober can only get thru the order the first time. He is not Greg Maddux and even if he was that was then and this is now. He is only one of the many on the roster that should be moved. Coming back with the same roster next season is the definition of insanity.

[MeleMouth]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Sure. His numbers the first time through the order are better than Yoendrys Gomez pitched in 2026. That’s without the  2mph boost he’s likely to get pitching as a reliever. You are unlikely to find a better free agent reliever for 1 year, $7M. Would you rather have Ober or 39-year old Kenley Jansen?

Plus then he's there if you run out of starters.

[DJL44]

1 minute ago, David Maro said:

Coming back with the same roster next season is the definition of insanity.

But swapping out the bottom of the roster for more expensive free agents of the same level of talent would be idiocy.

They need to add a top free agent. To do that they need to keep the players they have who are worth more than their arbitration salaries.

[Mike Sixel]

27 minutes ago, Patzky said:

It will take a major stroke of luck for all of the pitchers you named to be heathy and effective simultaneously.

That's not the point at all. Three of those need to start the year in the minors. All of whom have higher upside than Ober. Are you trying to win or not?

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Sure. His numbers the first time through the order are better than Yoendrys Gomez pitched in 2026. That’s without the  2mph boost he’s likely to get pitching as a reliever. You are unlikely to find a better free agent reliever for 1 year, $7M. Would you rather have Ober or 39-year old Kenley Jansen?

Like I said, as a RP, I'm all in. 

[DannySD]

This is the biggest coin flip of the offseason I think. A team that wants to contend needs around nine starters to get through the season, and a few of them can be guys like Ober, but he'll have to be in long relief when all the other starters are healthy. 

[Major League Ready]

34 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

But swapping out the bottom of the roster for more expensive free agents of the same level of talent would be idiocy.

They need to add a top free agent. To do that they need to keep the players they have who are worth more than their arbitration salaries.

Why would they need to keep Larnach / Lewis / Ober?

They have Ryan / Lopez / Bradley / Kremer / Prielipp / Matthews / Rojas and possibly Festa.

They have Buxton / Jenkins / Keaschall / Rodriquez / Roden / Martin for OF.  If they sign a 1B or 2B FA, Clemmens could be used in the OF if needed.

Lewis is easily replaced by a free agent.  Clemmens and Keaschall could also contribute at 1B.   

They would be a better team if the used the money from Larnach / Ober and Lewis to sign louis Arraez or Brandon Lowe at 2B.  I could even see filing 1B with France and putting Clemmens at 2B until Houston makes his way up and Culpepper goes to 2B.  At that point, Clemmens moves to a super utility role.

These combinations are definitely better than having Lewis at 1B and Larnach in the OF, especially defensively.  I will take my chances with Preilipp or Matthews outperforming Ober as a SP.  Could he up the velocity out of the pen and be good for a couple innings in relief.  Maybe.  That's a reasonable question.

[David Maro]

When I say coming back with the same roster is the definition of insanity I'm saying that I believe they have 10 if not more players on the 40 man that should be moved. By doing so would put a fire under some of the players remaining to improve their performance.

[DJL44]

7 minutes ago, David Maro said:

put a fire under some of the players remaining to improve their performance.

That’s not a thing. Players are well aware of the performance required to make it to MLB and stay there. If they lacked that motivation they would never make it in the first place.

[D.C Twins]

19 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

So which pitcher isn't on the roster, if Lopez, Ryan, Ober and Kremer are? Preilipp? Matthews? Abel? Bradley? Because all four of those have higher upside than Ober. At some point, you have to play to win. 

Totally get this, but what if Ryan is traded? What if Kremer regresses to the mean? What if Matthews and/or Preilipp have sophomore struggles? What if Abel doesn't progress as we anticipate? 

I feel like SP depth is important and 6.9mil shouldn't disrupt the Twins overall budget. If some of the young ones have to 'prove it' for a month or two in AAA, not a big deal. If they most prove it AND there are no injuries, they come up and Ober goes to the bullpen. Is the bullpen an ideal use of 6.9mil... NO... but again, you are paying for experience and depth and flexibility... for one year

[awmonahan]

Tender. Pitching is not easy to find. He's been an asset to the team, and this team is lacking in depth and quality everywhere. Maybe he's valuable as a starter or a reliever or a trade chip. I'd expect one of those to work out. I wouldn't move into the off-season planning for blue skies with this team, its lack of investment and injury history. 

[tony&rodney]

3 hours ago, Bangkok Twins Fan said:

I always enjoy your posts, and I respect your opinion so I'm asking this question out of sheer curiosity. Why will December be the timeline for the Twins to make any transactions? I realize the upcoming labor agreement and potential lockout is a factor, but I'm fuzzy about what sort of strategy the Twins will or won't have in regards to moves during this odd off-season. Do you think they will truly be active?

My suggestions/thought are merely hopes. Any specific names are not gold but giving ideas, which may or not work. The criticisms of my suggestions (not from you) are never followed up with other specific guesses. 

The owners will almost certainly lock out the players on December 1. November will be busy. Thus, I am guessing, there will be moves made between now and then by many clubs across baseball. Most free agents will want to know where they and their families are going next as well. Teams that sit out this period of time will be left to scrounge from the lesser free agents later. Trades will be available after the lockout closes for all teams. However, I am guessing that window could be tight if an agreement occurs in March or early April. MLB is in serious financial trouble if the lockout goes beyond 60 days due to media contracts. The public backlash will not be something that MLB cannot recover from in less than 5-10 years. American businesses don't do long range thinking so it is self immolation if the owners decide to destroy their own cash cow. These are merely my guesses. 

I have no idea how the Twins will proceed but it seems like Derek Shelton (perhaps Zoll too) has pushed a more athletic, defensively skilled version of baseball. The Twins opened 2026 with Jeffers, Bell, Keaschall, Lewis, Lee, Larnach, Buxton, and Wallner in the field. Only one of those players is even close to adequate at the position they played and that player (Buxton) scored as average to slightly below average via the eye and the metrics tests. Shelton moved players around, which did improve the defense, but clearly more work is needed. If the Twins are going to continue on that path a few transactions would help. The obvious needs are bullpen, catcher, first base, second base, and as always for every team in baseball ... starting pitching. Teams that act quickly may have to pay a little more in trade value or in money for free agents but the choices are wide open. Waiting to make all moves in a 1-3 week window when the CBA is signed will be hectic, more competitive, and likely result in more costs for less quality. 

It would be too ironic if the Twins followed their past behavior of winter's past, which was to sit and watch the rest of the league make decisions until the calendar turned. I guess I'm hoping there are changes made. Only the front offices can know what works for each team. Every year we see trades that seem unbelievable. Players are moved for more value than was anticipated and for far less than what people believed. So we cannot know. Arizona wants some LH bats. Would Larnach, Wallner, or Roden fit? We don't know. They have not been enamored with the talented yet frustrating Jordan Lawlar. Will they move him? We don't know. BaseballTradeValues was often cited in the past but is now private. They have had numbers all over the place which would make something possible between ARI-MIN. So I hope the Twins are active and think that the 2027 club will fail if the Twins run back the same group, but see promise for the club with as few as 3-5 transactions. Money is not an issue.

Fans across this site all have their own thoughts on the issues, plans, ideas, and next year. Many people have favorite players too which complicates things. My favorite player list starts and stops with four players: Willie Mays, Sandy Koufax, Tony Oliva, and Rod Carew. Beyond that I just like the Twins and good baseball. I don't root against the Yankees or Dodgers or for the underdog clubs. I like to watch Tampa Bay and Milwaukee because they play great baseball. I enjoy watching George Lombard Jr. because he plays hard and fundamentally sound along with being athletic. I can enjoy Schwarber as a DH but don't want to watch his type play in the field or run the bases. This is way, way, way too much of a response. The Twins missed the window of moving valued players for much better baseball players in 2023, 2024, and 2025. They were delusional at the 2026 trading deadline. Will they make the moves needed now? I hope so.

[bean5302]

@DJL44 Plenty of relievers out there at under $5MM that can give you 4.50 ERA. I don't want any 4.50 ERA relievers on the team, but accept some people will be. If Ober were a reliever with the kind of runs allowed metrics he has right now, he'd get a MiLB or $1MM contract.

Not all starters gain 2mph from the 'pen. Not all starters turn into great relievers or even get better. In 2026, as a starter, Ober's first time through the order came with a 4.23 FIP and 4.99 xFIP. He's the same guy throwing the same stuff. His ceiling is middle reliever if the 2mph adds something to his game, and he can manage to stay healthy throwing harder.

[strumdatjag]

Slow-ball pitchers are not usually very successful.  I don’t believe Ober is the second-coming of Jamie Moyer or even Bruce Chen (skiw-ballers whom we saw in our division).   Let Bailey go.    
Maybe he doesn’t get a decent offer elsewhere and then the Twins can explore whether Ober is a good possibility in the bullpen and a start in a pinch. 

[Patzky]

1 hour ago, DannySD said:

This is the biggest coin flip of the offseason I think. A team that wants to contend needs around nine starters to get through the season, and a few of them can be guys like Ober, but he'll have to be in long relief when all the other starters are healthy. 

So be it.

[SaintPaulRocks]

Non Tender for sure. I think we already have better starters on the roster. Lopez,Ryan, Bradley, Kremer, and Prielipp as opening day starters. These 5 guys are all better I think. Ober has value, just not enough. I don't think he will work from the bullpen, his pitches are to slow. 

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

@DJL44 Plenty of relievers out there at under $5MM that can give you 4.50 ERA. I don't want any 4.50 ERA relievers on the team, but accept some people will be. If Ober were a reliever with the kind of runs allowed metrics he has right now, he'd get a MiLB or $1MM contract.

Based on the actual free agent signings last season that’s not true. The free agents you get for less than $5M are guys like Taylor Rogers who’ll give you an ERA just below 5 if you put him in the most favorable situations and have a quick hook. If you want someone like Hoffman or Minter the going rate is 2 years, $22M.

[Riverbrian]

The front office will need to make some phone calls and I'm sure they have made them to gauge his remaining value. While his value has to be certainly diminished. I can't help believing that Ober would retain some trade value for the simple reason that all major league teams need 8 to 11 starting pitchers just to get through the season and there are some teams that have question marks just finding 5. Somebody would plug him into the back end. Kremer had a distressed ERA when we traded for him. The Orioles go their current 17th ranked prospect in the deal. 

The Twins are one of the few teams that have the necessary depth as they stand today. 

The Twins currently have 4 arms in their final year. Ryan, Lopez, Kremer and Ober. Taj is the only projected starting 5 arm that will remain with the club after 2027. Prielipp, Matthews, Abel, Festa, plus Quick is coming quick and this Bohorquez kid is making some noise. 

However, there is a wall coming when 2027 concludes. You can't just watch 4 arms depart without a wall on the other side of it. Those 4 arms are a wall. No matter how average (below average) Ober and Kremer have been.

The Twins have to decide if they are going to run full speed into that wall and that means take those 4 arms plus Bradley plus the stockpile of arms in St. Paul and see how far they can take you in 2027... or... do they mitigate the crash by replacing one or two of those final year arms via trade. 

If Tom Pohlad wants to spend some cash. They could dive into free agency and get a 2 or 3 year contract arm like Trevor Rogers for example at (just guessing... I have no idea) 20 million a year. This would soften the collision with the upcoming wall. Bradley and Rogers (For Example purposes only) can go down on a spreadsheet as potential 2028 arms. That softens the blow. You can all insert your favorite FA starter and replace Rogers if you'd like. It's for example purposes.

A rotation of Ryan, Lopez, Bradley and Rogers in the first 4 slots would be a pretty decent top 4.

Starting depth is maintained.

2027 rotation upgraded.

2028 wall blow softer. 

That would leave Ober or Kremer available to trade. You could package an outfielder with Ober to try and increase value (Not Jenkins or Erod) and maybe land a really decent young bullpen arm or a desperately needed infielder. I think it was Tony/Rodney somewhere suggesting Lawlar. Let's go with that... If Lawler can still play SS and other infield spots. What will it take to land him. Ober plus? 

 

[Mike Sixel]

49 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

The front office will need to make some phone calls and I'm sure they have made them to gauge his remaining value. While his value has to be certainly diminished. I can't help believing that Ober would retain some trade value for the simple reason that all major league teams need 8 to 11 starting pitchers just to get through the season and there are some teams that have question marks just finding 5. Somebody would plug him into the back end. Kremer had a distressed ERA when we traded for him. The Orioles go their current 17th ranked prospect in the deal. 

The Twins are one of the few teams that have the necessary depth as they stand today. 

The Twins currently have 4 arms in their final year. Ryan, Lopez, Kremer and Ober. Taj is the only projected starting 5 arm that will remain with the club after 2027. Prielipp, Matthews, Abel, Festa, plus Quick is coming quick and this Bohorquez kid is making some noise. 

However, there is a wall coming when 2027 concludes. You can't just watch 4 arms depart without a wall on the other side of it. Those 4 arms are a wall. No matter how average (below average) Ober and Kremer have been.

The Twins have to decide if they are going to run full speed into that wall and that means take those 4 arms plus Bradley plus the stockpile of arms in St. Paul and see how far they can take you in 2027... or... do they mitigate the crash by replacing one or two of those final year arms via trade. 

If Tom Pohlad wants to spend some cash. They could dive into free agency and get a 2 or 3 year contract arm like Trevor Rogers for example at (just guessing... I have no idea) 20 million a year. This would soften the collision with the upcoming wall. Bradley and Rogers (For Example purposes only) can go down on a spreadsheet as potential 2028 arms. That softens the blow. You can all insert your favorite FA starter and replace Rogers if you'd like. It's for example purposes.

A rotation of Ryan, Lopez, Bradley and Rogers in the first 4 slots would be a pretty decent top 4.

Starting depth is maintained.

2027 rotation upgraded.

2028 wall blow softer. 

That would leave Ober or Kremer available to trade. You could package an outfielder with Ober to try and increase value (Not Jenkins or Erod) and maybe land a really decent young bullpen arm or a desperately needed infielder. I think it was Tony/Rodney somewhere suggesting Lawlar. Let's go with that... If Lawler can still play SS and other infield spots. What will it take to land him. Ober plus? 

 

Lawler is terrible at short according to fangraphs. 

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Based on the actual free agent signings last season that’s not true. The free agents you get for less than $5M are guys like Taylor Rogers who’ll give you an ERA just below 5 if you put him in the most favorable situations and have a quick hook. If you want someone like Hoffman or Minter the going rate is 2 years, $22M.

I should probably just bow out, but there are are only 63 relievers last year with an ERA (stupid metric for relievers) over 4.50 out of 253 that had more than 20 innings.

30 of 127 of those guys were 30+ (likely free agents)

Now, if we look at the difference between your just under 5.00 ERA reliever over 50 innings and compare to a 4.50 ERA reliever with 50 innings, that's 2-3 runs per year, plenty of cheap free agents who put up 4.50 ERA or better over 30+ innings under $2MM or less contracts. Starting at 4.50 ERA and working better, here are a few  of the 46 guys who qualified.

Craig Kimbrel - 4.50 at $588k
Taylor Rogers - 4.33 at $2.0MM
Jose Urquidy - 4.05 at $1.5MM

 

 

[Riverbrian]

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Lawler is terrible at short according to fangraphs. 

I haven't checked the numbers but I really wouldn't check the numbers. His sample size has to be less than 100 innings.