Should the Twins Have Cashed In on Joe Ryan and Pablo López?

[Sam Caulder]

Image courtesy of Rick Scuteri-Imagn Images

With the odds of the Twins making the postseason shrinking by the day, we’re left with plenty of opportunities to reflect on the season that was and, more importantly, what could have been.

Yet another season without playoff baseball makes it easy to look back at all of the things the Twins should’ve done differently. There are plenty of decisions that can be debated, from roster construction to the trade deadline, but in the Twins’ case specifically, I think there’s a pretty compelling argument that Derek Falvey missed an opportunity to reshape the organization.

And two names immediately come to mind: Joe Ryan and Pablo López.

Let’s go back to this past offseason. There was plenty of buzz that Falvey and the Twins could be forced into dealing one or both of their veteran starters as the organization looked to reshape the roster and potentially cut payroll. As it turns out, neither one was moved. Hindsight is always 20/20, of course, but I think Falvey missed out by not moving on from at least one of them before the season started.

And that’s especially easy for me to say because I was of that belief at the time as well. I thought Ryan, in particular, was a pitcher the Twins should seriously consider moving while his value was at its highest. López was a little more complicated, but there was still a window to make something happen. Now, that window looks considerably smaller.

The Pablo López Problem

López’s situation is obviously a little different because he suffered a season-ending elbow injury in February, just before the season began. There’s no way the Twins could have known that was coming.

But they still had November, December, and January to explore a potential trade. López was healthy at the time, and while his contract certainly limited the number of teams that could have been interested, he was still a proven starting pitcher who had been one of the better members of the Twins’ rotation. Instead, Falvey and the Twins held onto him, and now his trade value has taken a massive hit. López is coming off elbow surgery, missed the entire 2026 season and is entering a contract year in 2027. Even if he returns healthy and pitches well next season, there’s no guarantee he gets back to where he was pre-injury. That puts the organization in a somewhat awkward position.

If the Twins genuinely believe they can make a run at the postseason next year, then you probably want López in your rotation. A healthy version of him could be a major part of a competitive pitching staff. But if the Twins don’t win with him in 2027, that’s going to be a pretty bad look.

Falvey had an opportunity to move López when his value was much higher, chose not to, and now Jeremy Zoll’s front office could potentially be stuck with the consequences of that decision. There’s still a chance López comes back and proves to be an important piece, but the opportunity to maximize his value has almost certainly passed.

Ryan Was Different

I think the same general argument can be made for Joe Ryan, only with even more conviction.

I was of the belief that the Twins should’ve traded Ryan before the season, and I felt even more strongly about it when the trade deadline rolled around. Unlike López, there would have been a very active market for Ryan. He was healthy, he was pitching at a high level, and, like López, he was under team control for multiple seasons. That combination is incredibly valuable in today’s game. Contenders are constantly searching for starting pitching, but controllable frontline starters are especially difficult to find. A team acquiring Ryan wouldn’t have just been getting a rental for the stretch run. They would have been getting a quality starter who could remain in the rotation for years. That should have put the Twins in an excellent position to demand a significant return. Instead, Falvey kept him.

And again, hindsight is always 20/20. The Twins probably believed they could still make a postseason push. Maybe they believed Ryan was too important to the future of the organization to move. Maybe the offers simply weren’t good enough. But looking at where things stand now, it’s fair to ask what exactly the Twins gained by keeping him.

They aren’t a playoff team WITH Ryan. If the goal was to compete this season, that plan clearly didn’t work. And if the goal was to build toward the future, it’s difficult to argue that keeping Ryan was the best way to maximize the organization’s long-term return. That’s ultimately what makes the decision, to me, extra frustrating. Ryan was the most valuable trade chip on the entire roster, and Falvey had multiple opportunities to cash in on him. He chose not to.

The Pressure Is On

There’s still a path where all of this works out for the Twins. If they believe they can make a serious run in the American League next season, having both Ryan and López in the rotation would obviously be a good thing. Quality starting pitching is difficult to find, and there’s no reason to pretend otherwise. But that puts an awful lot of pressure on 2027.

Both pitchers are entering contract years, and both now have less trade value than they did when the Twins had the opportunity to move them. If the Twins make the playoffs next season and Ryan and López help lead the rotation there, nobody will care about the trades that weren’t made. If they fall short again, however, those decisions are going to be scrutinized heavily. And that’s where this ultimately becomes less about Ryan and López and more about Falvey.

Maybe Ryan and López will ultimately prove that decision was the right one. But if the Twins fall short again in 2027, it’s going to be awfully difficult to look back at these past two seasons and say Falvey maximized the opportunities in front of him. Sometimes building for the future means knowing when to move on from the players who can bring the biggest return. The Twins had that opportunity, and they might not get another one.

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[DJL44]

They have one more chance to trade Joe Ryan this offseason. He will bring back less than he would have earlier, but it is still the right move for this franchise.

[Vanimal46]

Anything and everything should be on the table after missing the playoffs in 5 out of the last 6 seasons. 

[chpettit19]

Without reading the article, the answer to the question in the title is "Yes." Unequivocally, YES!

[PuckettPond]

A fire sale is needed. Trade anyone of value bringing back youth, enthusiasm, talent, hope & change. Give the fans something to believe in. This year's trade deadline moves were Awful getting players in trades where we could get in free agency this winter. They helped get us losses not wins.

[TNtwins85]

Half measures have been the story of the Minnesota Twins since the early 2000’s when I started my fandom.
Not adding a legitimate starter to pair with Radke. Not adding another “Ace” level pitcher to pair with Johan to win a playoff series. Not adding star level RH bat to split up Mauer and Morneau. Not adding another star level bat rental when Morneau went down in 2010. Not trading star level players when it all fell apart in 2011 to speed up the rebuild. Not adding a star level starter in 2019. Not getting anyone else to help in 2023. Then not building on 2023 and instead scaling back. All while the next star level prospect fell short that you could have used to get these guys.

Half measures are the story of the “new millennium” Twins. Hamstringing a championship in the name of “being competitive.” A story as old as time. At least my time as an in depth Twins fan. Unless Tom Pohlad succeeds in “No half measures”, I assume it will be the same.

[Nashvilletwin]

To answer the question in the headline:

[Patzky]

I'm not sure that dumping your top two starters in the off-season would have been accepted any better than dumping your top three relievers during the regular season.

"Cheap Pohlads". I can hear it already

 

[Mike Sixel]

30 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Without reading the article, the answer to the question in the title is "Yes." Unequivocally, YES!

Same. This ownership group and FO set this team back two years or more this last two seasons. 

[TheLeviathan]

I mean, this is the question put less abstractly:

31 year old, coming off an entire missed season (Lopez) and Ryan (last year of team control, another dud second half)

vs.

Franklin Arias (consensus top 10 prospect in all of baseball), Payton Tolle (and his top tier stache), and whatever you could've gotten from Lopez.

This is about as "duh" as it gets.  I'll brace myself for the downvotes from the senile and deeply delusional members of our board now.

[IndianaTwin]

25 minutes ago, Patzky said:

I'm not sure that dumping your top two starters in the off-season would have been accepted any better than dumping your top three relievers during the regular season.

"Cheap Pohlads". I can hear it already

 

So you’re saying you don’t think folks on TD would have received well the idea of an $85M payroll? 🤣

 

[Mike Sixel]

3 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

So you’re saying you don’t think folks on TD would have received well the idea of an $85M payroll? 🤣

 

They could have them signed two legit players.....

About two thirdd of the people here would have approved off the trades, at least amount the regulars. 

[thelanges5]

Oh hindsight…

Can they recoup any value now on their missed opportunities?

-Jeffers, I’d offer the QO, either they get another year or they pick up a draft pick. 
-Ryan, hopefully he pitches well in his last couple games here this season. I’m listening to any and all offers.                            
-Pablo, this will be an unpopular take, but I would try to get an extension done for him. Otherwise, he is a trade deadline candidate.

Edited 6 hours ago by thelanges5

[bean5302]

100% the Twins should have dealt Lopez. They were handed a tight budget and Lopez ate up $22MM of it and he had surplus value while his peripherals were declining. Dealing Lopez would have allowed for flexibility to address holes in the roster before the season started.

Ryan would have brought back more prospect capital for sure, but if the Twins were going to try to compete in 2026, it would have been difficult without both Ryan and Lopez.

Either way, the Twins needed to trade one of the two for sure. Standard procedure was followed though. Stand pat, roll the same team back out and see what happens.

[Mike Sixel]

12 minutes ago, thelanges5 said:

Oh hindsight…

Can they recoup any value now on their missed opportunities?

-Jeffers, I’d offer the QO, either they get another year or they pick up a draft pick. 
-Ryan, hopefully he pitches well in his last couple games here this season. I’m listening to any and all offers.                            
-Pablo, this will be an unpopular take, but I would try to get an extension done for him. Otherwise, he is a trade deadline candidate.

People were begging them to sell last year and this off-season. There is no hindsight for most of us in this discussion. 

[HarmonK03]

13 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

100% the Twins should have dealt Lopez. They were handed a tight budget and Lopez ate up $22MM of it and he had surplus value while his peripherals were declining. Dealing Lopez would have allowed for flexibility to address holes in the roster before the season started.

Ryan would have brought back more prospect capital for sure, but if the Twins were going to try to compete in 2026, it would have been difficult without both Ryan and Lopez.

Either way, the Twins needed to trade one of the two for sure. Standard procedure was followed though. Stand pat, roll the same team back out and see what happens.

And if this front office stays intact, it will be more of the same this offseason.  They will pick up Bell's option and maybe sign a borderline RH hitting OF that will take AB's from Jenkins and ERod.  And they will keep Kremer and Ober in the rotation.  Another 85 loss season incoming if no changes are made.

[IndianaTwin]

42 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

They could have them signed two legit players.....

About two thirdd of the people here would have approved off the trades, at least amount the regulars. 

A) How many people who think they should have traded those two also believe that they would have spent the saved money on two legit players? 

B) Considering that it takes time to make trades, what legit players would have still been available for signing after the trades?

[Jacksson]

YES

[RpR]

The grass is always greener on the other side of the hill.☢️

[Patzky]

1 hour ago, IndianaTwin said:

So you’re saying you don’t think folks on TD would have received well the idea of an $85M payroll? 🤣

 

You know the monies would have been reinvested... 🤣

[jkcarew]

The Twins wanted to remain competitive while also building for the future.
 

It’s been done, but is way more often a recipe for accomplishing neither. But to seriously commit to one or the other takes….commitment…and seriousness. Things like courage, leadership, or resources probably need to come into play. Basically, a number of things that don’t seem to exist in this org.

[bean5302]

16 minutes ago, jkcarew said:

The Twins wanted to remain competitive while also building for the future.
 

It’s been done, but is way more often a recipe for accomplishing neither. But to seriously commit to one or the other takes….commitment…and seriousness. Things like courage, leadership, or resources probably need to come into play. Basically, a number of things that don’t seem to exist in this org.

I agree, re-building and trying to compete is typically a recipe for failure. It's the traditional recipe for this front office (and the Pohlads expectations).

However, this front office has accumulated a bunch of overlapping talent. Guys who are "good enough" to be on an MLB team, just not all of them on a single team since they fill the same role.

I think the Twins were in a unique position to deal from that role player strength, clear space on the roster and improve their ceiling for once, instead of improving their "floor" which didn't need any help. They had 20 1 WAR guys already. They didn't need 30 1 WAR guys. They needed two or three 2 or 3 WAR guys.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Maybe, but this is kind of Monday morning quarterbacking.  I know many were calling for them to be traded this past off season, but IF the two of them had remained healthy and had good years, this team would have likely been pretty competitive and probably a playoff team.  I object to the notion that our job for the league is to develop/refine players so that we can trade them for prospects/suspects and other teams can benefit.  We've messed that up too many times for me to get excited about trading the type of proven pitchers that we would desperately want to acquire -- not to mention the unlikelihood of ownership reinvesting the money saved into the team. "A bird in the hand. . . "

That didn't happen, so obviously the answer is that they should have been traded.  But again, hindsight is 20/20.  

[LyleCole]

3 hours ago, TNtwins85 said:

Half measures have been the story of the Minnesota Twins since the early 2000’s when I started my fandom.
Not adding a legitimate starter to pair with Radke. Not adding another “Ace” level pitcher to pair with Johan to win a playoff series. Not adding star level RH bat to split up Mauer and Morneau. Not adding another star level bat rental when Morneau went down in 2010. Not trading star level players when it all fell apart in 2011 to speed up the rebuild. Not adding a star level starter in 2019. Not getting anyone else to help in 2023. Then not building on 2023 and instead scaling back. All while the next star level prospect fell short that you could have used to get these guys.

Half measures are the story of the “new millennium” Twins. Hamstringing a championship in the name of “being competitive.” A story as old as time. At least my time as an in depth Twins fan. Unless Tom Pohlad succeeds in “No half measures”, I assume it will be the same.

During the Mauer-Mourneau-Santana-Liriano years if they just bring the payroll up, they are real contenders for the World Series and probably recoup all of their incremental investment.  They had good young stars and good supporting players, a high level closer.   They just had to rely too much on guys like Rondell White and Lew Ford and Nick Punto.   

[bjorks]

If you're trying to "win" - fans and games I'd say no. Hypothetically depending on what the next CBA looks like you have 2 chances to trade Ryan, albeit for a smaller package and 1 more chance for Pablo. If you go into 2027 with Lopez/Ryan/Bradley as your playoff Big 3, if they can hit there's a formidable group. 

If we're all in on a youth movement and a collection of prospects, sure they should've been traded or should be. IMHO we've solved one the hardest things to solve in baseball - 3 top of the rotation, WS caliber starters. Lopez should never be traded for what he is in the locker room and in the community, how many of us would trade Bradley back for Jax today. I love prospects as much as the next person, but whatever 2027 looks like we should be excited as this team could be in the mid 80s to low 90s in wins if they can hit. 

[Mike Sixel]

28 minutes ago, bjorks said:

If you're trying to "win" - fans and games I'd say no. Hypothetically depending on what the next CBA looks like you have 2 chances to trade Ryan, albeit for a smaller package and 1 more chance for Pablo. If you go into 2027 with Lopez/Ryan/Bradley as your playoff Big 3, if they can hit there's a formidable group. 

If we're all in on a youth movement and a collection of prospects, sure they should've been traded or should be. IMHO we've solved one the hardest things to solve in baseball - 3 top of the rotation, WS caliber starters. Lopez should never be traded for what he is in the locker room and in the community, how many of us would trade Bradley back for Jax today. I love prospects as much as the next person, but whatever 2027 looks like we should be excited as this team could be in the mid 80s to low 90s in wins if they can hit. 

With what hitters? What is the Bradley Jax question? The Brewers absolutely traded a guy like Lopez ...

People complain they don't have enough prospects, and also don't want them to trade veterans.. .

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Technically, they can still trade both of them this offseason and the next trade deadline, but yeah, they missed their opportunity. They either should have traded both of them last offseason and started the season with a $70m payroll or actually invest into the payroll and put together a real bullpen and sign an actual 1b, and not have rolled with Lee at SS.

[TheLeviathan]

56 minutes ago, bjorks said:

If you're trying to "win" - fans and games I'd say no. Hypothetically depending on what the next CBA looks like you have 2 chances to trade Ryan, albeit for a smaller package and 1 more chance for Pablo. If you go into 2027 with Lopez/Ryan/Bradley as your playoff Big 3, if they can hit there's a formidable group. 

If we're all in on a youth movement and a collection of prospects, sure they should've been traded or should be. IMHO we've solved one the hardest things to solve in baseball - 3 top of the rotation, WS caliber starters. Lopez should never be traded for what he is in the locker room and in the community, how many of us would trade Bradley back for Jax today. I love prospects as much as the next person, but whatever 2027 looks like we should be excited as this team could be in the mid 80s to low 90s in wins if they can hit. 

They don't have to be worried about being WS caliber starters since there isn't (and won't be) nearly enough talent around them to ever sniff the WS.

Also....are you suggesting you'd trade Bradley for Jax?  I'm confused by that remark since the opposite is true for virtually everyone and runs counter to your point.

[LastOnePicked]

I was begging for a complete fire sale last offseason. There had never been a better opportunity to refresh this farm system and gear up for a strong window of contention.

But that opportunity is gone now. You'd get nothing of value for Lopez or Ryan at this point. A-ball lottery tickets or a AAAA bust at best. Buxton is a massive question mark. Jeffers will walk for a compensation draft pick at best.

"But that puts an awful lot of pressure on 2027." Exactly, Sam. If we want a shot at the playoffs, 2027 is the last chance for a long time to come. There are no impact arms in this system. Tom Pohlad needs to open the coffers in a massive way this offseason, and then tell the GM to have a very quick hook if this team falters before the deadline. I mean, eat salary and trade the new free agents for the best possible prospects.

The margin of error is almost nonexistent. If 2027 is a bust, this team probably won't sniff a title until after Jenkins and Culpepper and this new rookie core are gone. 2026 was a risk, and failed risks are costly.

[LastOnePicked]

3 hours ago, thelanges5 said:

Oh hindsight…

That's the problem. It didn't take hindsight to see that at least one or more of the pillars of this team - Lopez, Ryan, Buxton, Jeffers - were going to go down with fatigue or injury. That was pretty much a given, and the team had no contingency plan whatsoever.

It just took an ability to take off the rose-colored glasses and see this roster for what it was: unsteady and unready for primetime. But no one in this organization has that ability.