Walker Jenkins vs Emmanuel Rodriguez: Which Twins Prospect Gets the Call First?

[Sam Caulder]

Image courtesy of Rob Thompson, St. Paul Saints; Peyton Vogel/Peyton Pics

As we’ve already seen this year, the Twins are taking their time when it comes to calling up their top young players. For most of the season, Twins fans have been clamoring to see some of the organization’s best prospects get their chance in the majors. On Friday, we finally got the opportunity to see one of them.

The Twins promoted their No. 3 prospect, shortstop Kaelen Culpepper, and he wasted no time getting acclimated to the big leagues. Culpepper homered in his second major league at-bat against Brewers left-hander Shane Drohan, then reached base three times in his second career game. It was an impressive start to what the Twins hope will be a long and productive MLB career. But even after Culpepper's promotion, there are still two names Twins fans have been waiting all year to see.

Twins No. 1 prospect Walker Jenkins and No. 6 prospect Emmanuel Rodriguez are both seemingly right on the verge of a major league call-up, and there are a lot of similarities between the two. They’re both outfielders, and both left-handed outfielders (shocker). They can both play all over the outfield, and both have more than held their own at Triple-A. So, with that in mind, who will we see in the majors first?

I think you can make a very compelling case for both players, but if I had to make the bet right now, I’d take Rodriguez. There are a couple of different things working in his favor. For one, he’s two years older than Jenkins and has significantly more experience at the professional level. His career Triple-A OPS is 62 points higher than Jenkins’, giving him another advantage when it comes to evaluating which player is more prepared for the majors right now. He's also out of minor league options, meaning this season is his last chance to get major league reps before the Twins' hand is forced. Assuming they plan on keeping him around beyond this year, it would be wise to let him get his feet wet before he's thrust into a more impactful role.

 

There’s also the fact that Rodriguez is already on the Twins’ 40-man roster. The Twins wouldn’t have to make a corresponding move to add Rodriguez to the active roster; they could select his contract and bring him up whenever they feel he’s ready. And considering how well he’s performed at Triple-A, it’s becoming increasingly difficult to argue that he isn’t.

Rodriguez is sporting an outrageous .423 on-base percentage across 84 games with the St. Paul Saints. There are still some legitimate concerns about his ability to consistently make contact, but he draws enough walks to (at least partially) offset those concerns. And there’s no questioning the power. Rodriguez recorded the hardest-hit ball ever by a Twins player when he launched a 117.1 mph home run back in April. Ten days later, he broke his own record by hitting a home run at 118.3 mph. That type of raw power is extremely difficult to find.

The biggest question with Rodriguez has always been his ability to stay healthy. He’s dealt with more than his fair share of injuries throughout his career, and he’s actually just returning to St. Paul’s lineup after suffering a UCL tear in his thumb. But he’s healthy now, and if he can stay on the field, his major-league call-up could come very soon.

Then there’s Jenkins, who is making an increasingly strong case that he deserves to be in the majors, too. In fact, his recent performance is making it difficult to justify keeping him in St. Paul much longer. Since returning from his AC joint sprain on June 13, Jenkins has been outstanding. Across 158 plate appearances, he’s hitting .326 with a .380 on-base percentage, 20 extra-base hits and six stolen bases in seven attempts. And he’s doing all of that at just 21 years old. At times, Jenkins has looked like a man amongst boys in Triple-A. That’s the type of performance you want to see from a prospect ranked as highly as he is, and when your organization’s No. 1 prospect is performing at that level, there’s only so long you can justify keeping him in the minors.

 

But there are a couple of things working against Jenkins when looking at the bigger picture, and those are ultimately the reasons I’d take Rodriguez to get called up first. For one, Jenkins is not currently on the Twins’ 40-man roster. He doesn’t have to be added until after next season, meaning the Twins would have to create a spot for him if they wanted to bring him up now. That could certainly happen; the Twins could move someone to the 60-day injured list, or they could decide that another player is expendable and remove him from the 40-man roster. But it’s still an additional hurdle that doesn’t exist with Rodriguez.

There’s also an interesting wrinkle when it comes to the upcoming CBA negotiations. With uncertainty surrounding the next collective bargaining agreement, there’s at least a chance that the 2027 season could be delayed. That makes the Twins’ decision with Jenkins a little more complicated. If they add him to the 40-man roster this year and there’s a lockout next spring, there’s a possibility that Jenkins could lose valuable development time while sitting on the roster instead of continuing to develop in the minor leagues. That by itself probably isn’t enough to keep him in St. Paul if the Twins believe he’s ready for the majors, but it’s another factor the organization has to consider.

In an ideal world, both Rodriguez and Jenkins get called up at some point this season, and the 2027 season plays out normally. That would be the best-case scenario for everyone involved. The Twins would get two of their best young talents into the major league lineup, while Jenkins and Rodriguez would get valuable experience heading into what could be a very important offseason for the organization. But if I had to make the bet on which one we see in Minnesota first, I’m taking Rodriguez.

It’s not necessarily because he’s more talented than Jenkins, or even because he’s more deserving of a call-up at this exact moment. It’s because the circumstances surrounding Rodriguez make his path to the majors significantly easier. He’s older, more experienced, already on the 40-man roster and producing at an elite level in Triple-A. Jenkins may very well be the Twins’ top prospect for a reason, and if he keeps hitting like this, it’s going to be awfully difficult to keep him down for much longer. But for now, I think Rodriguez has the clearer path.

View full article

[Cris E]

Hmm. If they wait three days one can still be eligible for Rookie awards next year, plus he's hitting well and feels ready to go. OTOH the other has hit 0-3 with 2K in the past three months at AAA. 

Hey here's an idea: wait 72 hours before running this so that Walter can come up with a clean slate next year, plus let Emma see some decent pitching, and maybe figure out where Buxton's recovery is at. 

[PuckettPond]

Where will Erod be this time next year?

[bean5302]

Emma should get the call. He's been better than Jenkins in AAA, he's out of options and the Twins need to see how he looks in MLB so they can have an offseason strategy.