Is Zebby Matthews's Future in the Rotation?

[Cody Pirkl]

Image courtesy of © Matt Marton-Imagn Images

Zebby Matthews has been a win for the Twins' pitching development, even if his stock has dropped since his debut. After speeding through the minors on his way to his big-league debut in 2024, he's struggled with consistency. The Twins don't have other options in the rotation for the rest of 2026, but where will he be in 2027 and beyond?

An 8th-round pick in 2022, Zebby Matthews is already a successful pick from that draft. He added velocity after the Twins took him, which he paired with impeccable control to dominate the minor leagues. His overall results at the big-league level so far leave plenty to be desired, with an ERA over 5.50 in just under 200 innings. There's always a chance he can improve, but there are signs that his best role long-term isn’t in the rotation.

Matthews has a diverse arsenal, throwing five pitches at least 10% of the time in 2026. His best two offerings, by far, are his two breaking balls, an 89-MPH slider and an 87-MPH curveball. His fastball remains his most-used pitch and has been hit hard, with a .366 wOBA allowed while not drawing nearly enough swings and misses. His heater is also down to 95 MPH, from 96.2 last season. He throws a changeup and cutter as well, though neither has been particularly successful.

Depending on the rotation depth the Twins have in 2027, they may have to ask themselves some difficult questions regarding Matthews. Can he improve enough to be a consistent starting pitcher? Can he transition to a relief role and become an impact reliever? As the sample size of innings in the rotation grows, these questions are starting to get louder.

Matthews looked like a master of control and command in the minor leagues, but this hasn’t played out at the MLB level. His walk rate in the big leagues is still good, but it’s a far cry from the control he showed in the minors, where filling the strike zone didn’t lead to nearly as much punishment. 

What we’ve seen with Matthews is that while he’s capable of throwing plenty of strikes, he lacks the command to locate his pitches where they won’t be crushed. This is on full display when watching him while ahead in the count. Instead of putting hitters away by leveraging advantage counts, he far too often throws a hittable pitch, allowing opposing hitters to bail themselves out.

He's flashed high-level stuff at points in his young career, but saw a slight decline in 2025 and then again in 2026, particularly with his fastball. It’s possible he lacks the command to be a consistently successful MLB pitcher with this diminished level of stuff. If it’s not going to come back in a starting role, it may be worth seeing if he can harness it out of the bullpen.

The most recent example of a fringe starting pitcher turned impact reliever is Andrew Morris this season, but we've seen the Twins utilize this route plenty in recent years. A move to the bullpen would allow Matthews to trim his arsenal and utilize his best pitches more often in shorter stints. He shouldn't need to rely on his fastball as often as a reliever, but history tells us that there's a chance that he could reclaim the velocity he once flashed that approached triple digits. While starting pitchers of any type are valuable, Matthews reestablishing the stuff he flashed a few years ago could make him an impact reliever.

While it would be great for Matthews to become even a back-end starting pitcher, there are other paths to him being an impact arm for the Minnesota Twins. Perhaps we need to see a bit more before committing to Zebby Matthews in the bullpen, but if he continues to struggle for the rest of 2026, the question may have to be asked. Is Zebby Matthews’ future in the Twins’ rotation?

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[Road trip]

Well, he's a starter the rest of the year due to rotation attrition.

I suspect, assuming he is healthy, that he will still be a starter in 2027 due to rotation attrition.  Such is the nature of MLB pitching...guys get hurt, and every MLB team needs about 8 or 9 possible starters.  I think he will be out of option years though, which may complicate a decision about his place in the rotation in April.

In his favor, he has some length.  He has shown an ability to go 6 or even 7 innings in a start (9 out of 12 starts this year).  Compared to many of the starting pitchers the Twins have used this year he is a real innings-eater.  This helps take some load of an always-overworked bullpen.  That's actually really valuable for a #4 or #5 starter, which might be his ceiling.  This length is also a dramatic improvement over last year, where he hit the 6 inning mark only 5 times in 16 starts.  That's encouraging.

Would he perform better as a reliever?  Probably.  You could also say that about almost every MLB starting pitcher.  It's simply an easier job.  

[Dman]

I'm still a believer.  Not ready to give up on him as a starter just yet.  He does seems to have some of the same issues Varland had.  So I get that a pen move makes sense, His biggest issues are getting into long counts and then gets homer prone.  Still he is just a put away pitch from being a mid rotation arm.  They just need to find him another weapon or improved pitch and he could be really good IMO. I'd give it more time.

[LA Vikes Fan]

Matthews should go into the bullpen. I've think we've seen enough to know both that he is not ready for a full-time rotation spot and that he has a good enough arsenal to compete at the MLB level in the bullpen. He looks more and more like the classic failed starter turned reliever type. Also, these moves don't have to be permanent. If he goes to the bullpen and improves his command, he can always come back to the rotation. He's only just turned 26.

I don't think we have to wait until next year to do this. One of my fantasies is that we trade a quality prospect a few years out for a quality rental starter like Robbie Ray or Kevin Gausman, and then move Matthews to the bullpen in a late inning role. Essentially, try to till two birds with one stone. My real fantasy is that we trade said prospect for Freddy Peralta, but I know that's not happening. The price tag on him will be too high to be justified for team like this one.

[DataNerd]

I don't think the fastball command is an issue, its more of that it's not a great pitch anywhere he throws it.  Changeup has been a horrible pitch, getting hit in the zone and not missing bats.  The fastball has to be a strikeout threat to make the breaking pitches really work, and if he moves to the pen it might become enough of a threat

[Parfigliano]

0-2 count and 1.053 OPS is brutal.  Doubly brutal when it seems like many of his 0-2 counts contain 5 foul balls.

[Mike Sixel]

I'm not giving up on a guy with this limited experience just yet, but I'm not overly confident..... He should 100 percent start the rest of this year. 

[amjgt]

54 minutes ago, Road trip said:

I suspect, assuming he is healthy, that he will still be a starter in 2027 due to rotation attrition.  Such is the nature of MLB pitching...guys get hurt, and every MLB team needs about 8 or 9 possible starters. 

Unless you're the 2026 Cleveland Guardians and you've only used 5 SP all year, which is truly insane. 

[bean5302]

Zebby seems to profile very similarly to Louie Varland, IMHO. His overall profile seems to suggest a bullpen conversion is in his best interest. Adding a little velo gives hitters less time to identify mistakes and can open the door to dropping his worst pitches or developing a plus pitch to use as a weapon.

Doesn't miss enough bats as a starter
Works in the zone too much because of a mediocre chase rate
Too much hard contact
Largely below average stuff across the board
No plus pitches
Mediocre command

I'd disagree with the original article's assertion that Zebby was ever considered a master of command. I recall scouting reports saying he was more control than command.

[BillyBallLives]

15 minutes ago, amjgt said:

Unless you're the 2026 Cleveland Guardians and you've only used 5 SP all year, which is truly insane. 

wow....had to see it to believe it....Looks like there was one bullpen starter game.

[BillyBallLives]

Only reason Logan started a game was to fill in for a Double Header....

The left-hander served as the 27th man for Saturday's doubleheader against the Pirates and started the nightcap, taking a no-decision after giving up three runs (two earned) on six hits with three strikeouts and three walks over 3.1 innings. Allen will rejoin Columbus' rotation but could get another look in the majors when Cleveland needs some length.

This stat is truly insane.....99% of Cleveland starts this year  have been by the same 5 guys....average starts by main rotation is 65-75% expectancy.

Twins have used 10 different starter this year.....so, roughly 80%

[Czelgert]

Whether Zebby is in the BP or the rotation, he needs to develop an out pitch.  He fills up the zone which is commendable but way too many long counts and solid contact even when ahead.  Let’s work on that out pitch first.  

[nicksaviking]

I wish the front office would stop sweating the rotation/bullpen decisions so long. These types of starters have a tendency to turn into the team's best relievers. And the teams best relievers tend to be more valuable than the team's #4-5 starters. 

Moving to the bullpen should not be the soul crushing stigma people have historically viewed it as. Just move him now, and see if it pays dividends in 2027. I don't get the harm, this team isn't going to be winning many games with the way he's pitching in the rotation. I know the team is short starters, but what's the difference if it's Matthews or one of the stop-gap AAA guys? Or somebody from the waiver wire?

[rdehring]

Great question, Cody. 

Before spring training when we all thought the Twins had too many starters, I was of the opinion that one of the young starters needed to move to the pen.  Always thought Zebby was the best option as he seems, at least to me, to be very similar to Varland.  Up his velo on the fastball a couple ticks and work on perfecting two of the other pitches and he could be special.  Kind of like Louie is.  Question remains, will he?

[HarmonK03]

4 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I wish the front office would stop sweating the rotation/bullpen decisions so long. These types of starters have a tendency to turn into the team's best relievers. And the teams best relievers tend to be more valuable than the team's #4-5 starters. 

Moving to the bullpen should not be the soul crushing stigma people have historically viewed it as. Just move him now, and see if it pays dividends in 2027. I don't get the harm, this team isn't going to be winning many games with the way he's pitching in the rotation. I know the team is short starters, but what's the difference if it's Matthews or one of the stop-gap AAA guys? Or somebody from the waiver wire?

Because there are no stop-gap AAA guys currently.  Only two guys are averaging near 4 innings per start, they are not prepared to step into a starting role.  

[weitz41]

I'm not there yet but am leaning that way as well. To many hits on pitchers counts and homer issues same as Varland. He just needs a little more of something. 🤷‍♂️ More ride or rise on his FB? More deception in his delivery? Just middle middle and way too often. 🤷‍♂️ BP may be the answer, may also make him a what could have been. 

[PuckettProtector]

No.

He belongs in the bullpen. I've been screaming this for years. 

[Sjoski]

1 hour ago, weitz41 said:

BP may be the answer,

Batting Practice? Zebby is better than that!   😀

 

[thelanges5]

4 hours ago, amjgt said:

Unless you're the 2026 Cleveland Guardians and you've only used 5 SP all year, which is truly insane. 

Guardos got that Devil Magic 👹

[HerbieFan]

I don't feel like his issue is stuff.  It's more about location.  98 center cut gets killed in mlb.  He'll make pitches that make you go wow...and then make a pitch that makes you go wow, what the heck was that?  But, at some point he is who he is.  I do think he'd make an excellent reliever whenever that time comes...

[DocBauer]

I was also going to reference Varland, but as sort of an opposite comparison. Varland always seemed to be good 1 time through a lineup, maybe 1 1/2 times or so. But then after 4 innings, either the control would slip, or they would just time his pitches.

At least this season, Matthews almost cruises for about 3 games and goes a full 6 or 7 innings, and then 4th game he just "doesn't have it" and gets beat up. I mean, he's something like 9 out of 13 starts are quality starts. That means there is something in him that WORKS most of the time. 

His biggest problem does seem to be the inability to put away batters 0-2 and 1-2. I have no idea how to fix that, but it would seem a change in his arsenal might be in order. Does he need a sweepee or cutter to replace a certain % of his fastballs? He's a big guy, so I'd suspect large hands, is he a good candidate for a splitter. Maybe add 2 pitches and just drop the change and lower the FB usage?

He HAS shown some real improvement this season, IMO. And I'm just not ready to give up on him yet as a SP. Depending on how the offseason goes...any possible additions for example...I think he's still a starter for 2027. But he DOES need some tweeks to his offerings or mechanics, or both, to be able to get over the proverbial "hump" to put more batters away when he has a favorable count.

Unfortunately, adding to to the OP's question, Festa's career is somewhat in doubt depending on how his next exam goes. I really think he could be a dominate late game arm. But if he's out of the equation, then it's all the more tempting to move Matthews in to a pen role. But I'm still reluctant to move a 27yo SP pitcher to the pen...his age next May...when he's actually shown improvement this season. Does he have another level to climb to in 2027 if they can mix and match his repertoire a bit?

[Sampson5]

Feels like a future reliever at some point in the future but could just

[Western SD Fan]

13 hours ago, Road trip said:

Well, he's a starter the rest of the year due to rotation attrition.

I suspect, assuming he is healthy, that he will still be a starter in 2027 due to rotation attrition.  Such is the nature of MLB pitching...guys get hurt, and every MLB team needs about 8 or 9 possible starters.  I think he will be out of option years though, which may complicate a decision about his place in the rotation in April.

This is the correct answer whether we are willing to accept it or not.  Our current rotation is Ryan, Ober, Bradley, Matthews, and TBD.  Even though that TBD guy is a versatile as that Cash Considerations guy, I'm not excited about building a rotation around him.  When Prielipp comes back, he still will only fill the TDB role and possibly need relievers giving long relief, so we don't burn our bullpen every 5th day.  Of course, this gets even worse if Ryan is traded at the deadline.  Right now, a 2027 rotation is based on hopes and prayers that everyone comes back healthy and is effective.  I'm a fan of a backup plan just in case our hopes and prayers don't materialize.  That likely means that Matthews stays in the rotation either at the ML level or in St Paul depending on his options available.  

At best for 2027, we are looking at a rotation of Lopez, Ryan, Bradley, Ober and one of Abel, Prielipp, or Matthews.  Whomever doesn't make it to the rotation will have to be in St Paul with jet packs on to come on over if someone goes down.  Ultimately, we cannot afford to have Matthews switch to a reliever at this point.  

[TL]

17 hours ago, HarmonK03 said:

Because there are no stop-gap AAA guys currently.  Only two guys are averaging near 4 innings per start, they are not prepared to step into a starting role.  

It’s also that he has shown potential to be more than a 4/5 so I think you have to give that time to play out with a young pitcher. But, it does seem to be getting close to decision time with. If the Twins have a good home stand maybe the trade is for a mid-rotation starter and Zebby makes the bullpen move then.

[JD-TWINS]

20 hours ago, Road trip said:

Well, he's a starter the rest of the year due to rotation attrition.

I suspect, assuming he is healthy, that he will still be a starter in 2027 due to rotation attrition.  Such is the nature of MLB pitching...guys get hurt, and every MLB team needs about 8 or 9 possible starters.  I think he will be out of option years though, which may complicate a decision about his place in the rotation in April.

In his favor, he has some length.  He has shown an ability to go 6 or even 7 innings in a start (9 out of 12 starts this year).  Compared to many of the starting pitchers the Twins have used this year he is a real innings-eater.  This helps take some load of an always-overworked bullpen.  That's actually really valuable for a #4 or #5 starter, which might be his ceiling.  This length is also a dramatic improvement over last year, where he hit the 6 inning mark only 5 times in 16 starts.  That's encouraging.

Would he perform better as a reliever?  Probably.  You could also say that about almost every MLB starting pitcher.  It's simply an easier job.  

His mentality, from just watching him maybe 50% of the time, is he loses focus. His command in the zone can often be brutal (middle - middle). Short stints in relief may relieve him of multiple inning mental burden?

His stamina is good - he’s similar to Varland in that regard. 3-4 one inning stints/week from the PEN while leaning on slider, Curve, occasional change, & reduced use of fastball…. that would probably tick back up to 96+. On paper, he seems like a potentially solid 7th inning guy.

[laloesch]

Let him stay in the rotation the rest of the season barring a complete collapse.  He's still doing wayyyy better than Sim was before they released him.  If Mick Abel was still healthy and pitching well it might make sense to consider shifting him to the bullpen, but until Lopez and Abel are back, and depending on what happens with Joe Ryan and Ober I think the Twins should keep their options open with Matthews.  For all we know 2027 might be a very strike shortened season and Ryan might get traded too.  We also don't know what Lopez will be like once he returns along with Abel.  Matthews is a viable rotation option right now so keep him there.

[MesaTwinsFan]

Everyone on here will think im crazy but at the deadline the Twins need starting pitching rsther than relief pitching. Zebby Connor and Peredes all have Varland potential. None of the above are able to get past the 5th intern we overwork our waiver wire bullpen. Make the bold move to insert Jenkins and Culpepper into the everyday lineup and add  a innings eater with the ability to go 7 innings. What good has it done to let these pitchers start and know we have to replace them in the fiftĥinning please Twins let's finally cut the TK and Garden strings try something different maybe that might bring some excitement to Target Field

Tol

[Mike Sixel]

5 hours ago, MesaTwinsFan said:

Everyone on here will think im crazy but at the deadline the Twins need starting pitching rsther than relief pitching. Zebby Connor and Peredes all have Varland potential. None of the above are able to get past the 5th intern we overwork our waiver wire bullpen. Make the bold move to insert Jenkins and Culpepper into the everyday lineup and add  a innings eater with the ability to go 7 innings. What good has it done to let these pitchers start and know we have to replace them in the fiftĥinning please Twins let's finally cut the TK and Garden strings try something different maybe that might bring some excitement to Target Field

Tol

Connor is averaging just over five innings a start. Zebby just under six. 

So, um, wut?

[DocBauer]

Just to make sure I understand after tonight, Friday, Ryan remains a STUD #1 SP after a career worst game coming out of the break. Bradley had a horrible game and then had a great performance against Cleveland even though he didn't get the win.

And even though the offense was putrid tonight, Friday, Matthews threw 6 quality innings allowing only 2 Runs, 3 Hits, 3 BB, and 1K, and ate inning that were so needed after the Cleveland series. 

What is that now, 10 quality starts in 15 appearances? My math might be off slightly. So he's really good about 75% of the time? That's a hell of a good #4-5 SP who also eats IP. 

I'll say again, he's getting better. He's learning and growing. But I still think his repertoire needs tweaking. I just don't think he's ready for the bullpen yet. I think there's another level of improvement going forward if the coaches can work in a few changes. 

[Linus]

8 hours ago, DocBauer said:

Just to make sure I understand after tonight, Friday, Ryan remains a STUD #1 SP after a career worst game coming out of the break. Bradley had a horrible game and then had a great performance against Cleveland even though he didn't get the win.

And even though the offense was putrid tonight, Friday, Matthews threw 6 quality innings allowing only 2 Runs, 3 Hits, 3 BB, and 1K, and ate inning that were so needed after the Cleveland series. 

What is that now, 10 quality starts in 15 appearances? My math might be off slightly. So he's really good about 75% of the time? That's a hell of a good #4-5 SP who also eats IP. 

I'll say again, he's getting better. He's learning and growing. But I still think his repertoire needs tweaking. I just don't think he's ready for the bullpen yet. I think there's another level of improvement going forward if the coaches can work in a few changes. 

I agree (except that is 66.6%). 😀