Is Zebby Matthews's Future in the Rotation?

[Cody Pirkl]

Image courtesy of © Matt Marton-Imagn Images

Zebby Matthews has been a win for the Twins' pitching development, even if his stock has dropped since his debut. After speeding through the minors on his way to his big-league debut in 2024, he's struggled with consistency. The Twins don't have other options in the rotation for the rest of 2026, but where will he be in 2027 and beyond?

An 8th-round pick in 2022, Zebby Matthews is already a successful pick from that draft. He added velocity after the Twins took him, which he paired with impeccable control to dominate the minor leagues. His overall results at the big-league level so far leave plenty to be desired, with an ERA over 5.50 in just under 200 innings. There's always a chance he can improve, but there are signs that his best role long-term isn’t in the rotation.

Matthews has a diverse arsenal, throwing five pitches at least 10% of the time in 2026. His best two offerings, by far, are his two breaking balls, an 89-MPH slider and an 87-MPH curveball. His fastball remains his most-used pitch and has been hit hard, with a .366 wOBA allowed while not drawing nearly enough swings and misses. His heater is also down to 95 MPH, from 96.2 last season. He throws a changeup and cutter as well, though neither has been particularly successful.

Depending on the rotation depth the Twins have in 2027, they may have to ask themselves some difficult questions regarding Matthews. Can he improve enough to be a consistent starting pitcher? Can he transition to a relief role and become an impact reliever? As the sample size of innings in the rotation grows, these questions are starting to get louder.

Matthews looked like a master of control and command in the minor leagues, but this hasn’t played out at the MLB level. His walk rate in the big leagues is still good, but it’s a far cry from the control he showed in the minors, where filling the strike zone didn’t lead to nearly as much punishment. 

What we’ve seen with Matthews is that while he’s capable of throwing plenty of strikes, he lacks the command to locate his pitches where they won’t be crushed. This is on full display when watching him while ahead in the count. Instead of putting hitters away by leveraging advantage counts, he far too often throws a hittable pitch, allowing opposing hitters to bail themselves out.

He's flashed high-level stuff at points in his young career, but saw a slight decline in 2025 and then again in 2026, particularly with his fastball. It’s possible he lacks the command to be a consistently successful MLB pitcher with this diminished level of stuff. If it’s not going to come back in a starting role, it may be worth seeing if he can harness it out of the bullpen.

The most recent example of a fringe starting pitcher turned impact reliever is Andrew Morris this season, but we've seen the Twins utilize this route plenty in recent years. A move to the bullpen would allow Matthews to trim his arsenal and utilize his best pitches more often in shorter stints. He shouldn't need to rely on his fastball as often as a reliever, but history tells us that there's a chance that he could reclaim the velocity he once flashed that approached triple digits. While starting pitchers of any type are valuable, Matthews reestablishing the stuff he flashed a few years ago could make him an impact reliever.

While it would be great for Matthews to become even a back-end starting pitcher, there are other paths to him being an impact arm for the Minnesota Twins. Perhaps we need to see a bit more before committing to Zebby Matthews in the bullpen, but if he continues to struggle for the rest of 2026, the question may have to be asked. Is Zebby Matthews’ future in the Twins’ rotation?

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[Road trip]

Well, he's a starter the rest of the year due to rotation attrition.

I suspect, assuming he is healthy, that he will still be a starter in 2027 due to rotation attrition.  Such is the nature of MLB pitching...guys get hurt, and every MLB team needs about 8 or 9 possible starters.  I think he will be out of option years though, which may complicate a decision about his place in the rotation in April.

In his favor, he has some length.  He has shown an ability to go 6 or even 7 innings in a start (9 out of 12 starts this year).  Compared to many of the starting pitchers the Twins have used this year he is a real innings-eater.  This helps take some load of an always-overworked bullpen.  That's actually really valuable for a #4 or #5 starter, which might be his ceiling.  This length is also a dramatic improvement over last year, where he hit the 6 inning mark only 5 times in 16 starts.  That's encouraging.

Would he perform better as a reliever?  Probably.  You could also say that about almost every MLB starting pitcher.  It's simply an easier job.  

[Dman]

I'm still a believer.  Not ready to give up on him as a starter just yet.  He does seems to have some of the same issues Varland had.  So I get that a pen move makes sense, His biggest issues are getting into long counts and then gets homer prone.  Still he is just a put away pitch from being a mid rotation arm.  They just need to find him another weapon or improved pitch and he could be really good IMO. I'd give it more time.

[LA Vikes Fan]

Matthews should go into the bullpen. I've think we've seen enough to know both that he is not ready for a full-time rotation spot and that he has a good enough arsenal to compete at the MLB level in the bullpen. He looks more and more like the classic failed starter turned reliever type. Also, these moves don't have to be permanent. If he goes to the bullpen and improves his command, he can always come back to the rotation. He's only just turned 26.

I don't think we have to wait until next year to do this. One of my fantasies is that we trade a quality prospect a few years out for a quality rental starter like Robbie Ray or Kevin Gausman, and then move Matthews to the bullpen in a late inning role. Essentially, try to till two birds with one stone. My real fantasy is that we trade said prospect for Freddy Peralta, but I know that's not happening. The price tag on him will be too high to be justified for team like this one.

[DataNerd]

I don't think the fastball command is an issue, its more of that it's not a great pitch anywhere he throws it.  Changeup has been a horrible pitch, getting hit in the zone and not missing bats.  The fastball has to be a strikeout threat to make the breaking pitches really work, and if he moves to the pen it might become enough of a threat

[Parfigliano]

0-2 count and 1.053 OPS is brutal.  Doubly brutal when it seems like many of his 0-2 counts contain 5 foul balls.

[Mike Sixel]

I'm not giving up on a guy with this limited experience just yet, but I'm not overly confident..... He should 100 percent start the rest of this year. 

[amjgt]

54 minutes ago, Road trip said:

I suspect, assuming he is healthy, that he will still be a starter in 2027 due to rotation attrition.  Such is the nature of MLB pitching...guys get hurt, and every MLB team needs about 8 or 9 possible starters. 

Unless you're the 2026 Cleveland Guardians and you've only used 5 SP all year, which is truly insane. 

[bean5302]

Zebby seems to profile very similarly to Louie Varland, IMHO. His overall profile seems to suggest a bullpen conversion is in his best interest. Adding a little velo gives hitters less time to identify mistakes and can open the door to dropping his worst pitches or developing a plus pitch to use as a weapon.

Doesn't miss enough bats as a starter
Works in the zone too much because of a mediocre chase rate
Too much hard contact
Largely below average stuff across the board
No plus pitches
Mediocre command

I'd disagree with the original article's assertion that Zebby was ever considered a master of command. I recall scouting reports saying he was more control than command.

[BillyBallLives]

15 minutes ago, amjgt said:

Unless you're the 2026 Cleveland Guardians and you've only used 5 SP all year, which is truly insane. 

wow....had to see it to believe it....Looks like there was one bullpen starter game.

[BillyBallLives]

Only reason Logan started a game was to fill in for a Double Header....

The left-hander served as the 27th man for Saturday's doubleheader against the Pirates and started the nightcap, taking a no-decision after giving up three runs (two earned) on six hits with three strikeouts and three walks over 3.1 innings. Allen will rejoin Columbus' rotation but could get another look in the majors when Cleveland needs some length.

This stat is truly insane.....99% of Cleveland starts this year  have been by the same 5 guys....average starts by main rotation is 65-75% expectancy.

Twins have used 10 different starter this year.....so, roughly 80%

[Czelgert]

Whether Zebby is in the BP or the rotation, he needs to develop an out pitch.  He fills up the zone which is commendable but way too many long counts and solid contact even when ahead.  Let’s work on that out pitch first.  

[nicksaviking]

I wish the front office would stop sweating the rotation/bullpen decisions so long. These types of starters have a tendency to turn into the team's best relievers. And the teams best relievers tend to be more valuable than the team's #4-5 starters. 

Moving to the bullpen should not be the soul crushing stigma people have historically viewed it as. Just move him now, and see if it pays dividends in 2027. I don't get the harm, this team isn't going to be winning many games with the way he's pitching in the rotation. I know the team is short starters, but what's the difference if it's Matthews or one of the stop-gap AAA guys? Or somebody from the waiver wire?

[rdehring]

Great question, Cody. 

Before spring training when we all thought the Twins had too many starters, I was of the opinion that one of the young starters needed to move to the pen.  Always thought Zebby was the best option as he seems, at least to me, to be very similar to Varland.  Up his velo on the fastball a couple ticks and work on perfecting two of the other pitches and he could be special.  Kind of like Louie is.  Question remains, will he?

[HarmonK03]

4 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I wish the front office would stop sweating the rotation/bullpen decisions so long. These types of starters have a tendency to turn into the team's best relievers. And the teams best relievers tend to be more valuable than the team's #4-5 starters. 

Moving to the bullpen should not be the soul crushing stigma people have historically viewed it as. Just move him now, and see if it pays dividends in 2027. I don't get the harm, this team isn't going to be winning many games with the way he's pitching in the rotation. I know the team is short starters, but what's the difference if it's Matthews or one of the stop-gap AAA guys? Or somebody from the waiver wire?

Because there are no stop-gap AAA guys currently.  Only two guys are averaging near 4 innings per start, they are not prepared to step into a starting role.