Twins Trade Deadline Buying Guide: Dream Scenarios

[Lucas Seehafer PT]

Image courtesy of © Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

The 2026 MLB trade deadline is fast approaching, and the Minnesota Twins remain (surprisingly) locked firmly in the playoff race. Jim Pohlad has suggested that the Twins want to be buyers, and the team has four areas where an upgrade would be warranted: the starting rotation, the bullpen, first base, and shortstop. 

Below are three dream scenario example trades that would address each of these needs. By definition, these moves are very unlikely to happen, but they should provide the reader with context of what it would take to get something so big done, based on recent historical examples.  I encourage the reader not to get too hung up on the specific names included within these trades, but rather to consider the bigger picture; if the Twins want to get a number-two or -three starting pitcher, it would take this caliber of prospect(s), for example. 

Without further ado, let's get to dreaming.

Trade 1: Both the Rotation and the Bullpen Get a Big Boost

• Twins Get: RHP Freddy Peralta (expiring contract, $8 mil AAV), RHP Luke Weaver (1.5 years of control, $11 mil AAV)
• Mets Get: RHP Riley Quick, INF Royce Lewis, OF Brandon Winokur

Historical Comparison:

• Mets Get: RHP Freddy Peralta, RHP Tobias Myers
• Brewers Get: RHP Brandon Sproat (top-100 prospect), SS Jett Williams (borderline top 100 prospect)

To say that the Mets have underachieved this summer would be an extreme understatement. As of this writing, they sit above only the lowly Colorado Rockies in the National League standings and figure to be a seller come the trade deadline.

Starting pitcher Freddy Peralta figures to be one of the more attractive names on the block. His contract is set to expire at the end of the season, and any team acquiring his services will owe him less than $3 million for the remainder of the season. His 4.66 ERA isn’t all that impressive, but his xFIP is a more respectable 4.25. However, his K-BB% is a meager 12.9%, by far the worst of his career. Getting out of New York and connecting with Pete Maki, who has helped turn ok pitchers into good pitchers (see Taj Bradley, for example) would probably do him well.

Reliever Luke Weaver may secretly be the jewel of this trade. He currently ranks third in win probability added (2.45) among qualified relievers and is under team control through 2027. His four-seamer has elite rise (19.2 inches IVB), playing well at the top of the zone and holding opponents to a .242 slugging average. His changeup, while having below-average movement, plays well at the bottom of the zone and has held opponents to a .237 SLG. Weaver is nails against both sides of the platoon (.587 OPS against lefties and .345 OPS against righties) and would instantly be the best reliever in the Twins pen.

Losing pitching prospect Riley Quick would hurt, but the Twins would be betting on the borderline top-100 prospect not being able to figure out his control issues (13.8% walk rate). Outfielder Brandon Winokur has some interesting power potential, but has been right at average offensively according to wRC+ at High-A (like OPS+ and other similar metrics, 100 is average; Winokur posted a 98 in 122 games in 2025 and a 105 in 74 games in 2026). Royce Lewis would provide name recognition for Mets fans and would get a nice early-career reset. Lewis has been pretty good since his mid-May demotion, hitting .258 with seven home runs, but his numbers have started to drop again in July; he slashed .279/.330/.512 in 22 June games and .214/.298/.429 in 11 July games, entering Monday. Moving on sooner, rather than later, would probably be in both parties’ best interests. 

Interestingly, the best comparison for a Peralta-centered trade is the one the Mets pulled off over the winter to acquire Peralta. They sent out two highly-regarded prospects and also got back a valuable bullpen arm. It’s possible that the Twins would have to surrender a Marek Houston or Eduardo Tait rather than Quick (or include another mid-level prospect) to get this deal done. It’s also probable that Peralta and Weaver will be highly sought after, so the Twins would probably have to give up more than they would like to beat other teams' offers. Would they do that for an impending free agent and good but not elite bullpen arm? It's hard to say. To be sure, though, Peralta's acquisition cost has come down since the winter. Dealt now, he would no longer net an acquiring team a draft pick if he leaves via free agency, and his rough half-season has taken some sheen off him as a potential playoff starter, too.

Trade 2: The Twins Get Their Shortstop of the Future...But At What Cost?

• Twins Get: SS Gunnar Henderson (2.5 years of control, arbitration)
• Orioles Get: OF Emmanuel Rodriguez, SS Marek Houston, LHP Dasan Hill

Historical Comparison:

• Dodgers Get: SS Trea Turner, RHP Max Scherzer
• Nationals Get: RHP Josiah Gray (top-100 prospect), C Keibert Ruiz (top-50 prospect), RHP Gerardo Carrillo (mid-level prospect), OF Donovan Casey (low-level prospect)

Gunnar Henderson was in the conversation for best shortstop in the game a mere two seasons ago. Since then, Bobby Witt Jr. has continued to ascend, while Henderson’s career has somewhat stagnated. His 37-home run, 7.9-fWAR 2024 season was among the best for a shortstop in recent memory, but his 2025 was “only” above average (120 OPS+, 17 home runs, 4.8 fWAR) and his 2026 is shaping up to be the least productive of his young career (90 OPS+, 1.7 fWAR).

Still, the Twins would have to absolutely blow the Orioles away to obtain Henderson’s services. Realistically, the Orioles would ask for outfielder Walker Jenkins—and the Twins would obviously say no. But Rodriguez, Houston, and Hill all rank among the top 50-150 prospects in the game and possess enticing skills and high upsides that may be attractive for the begrudgingly rebuilding Orioles. Rodriguez reaches base at an elite clip and provides both thump at the plate and the ability to play center field; Houston might be one of the best defensive prospects in the game; and Hill could be a solid No. 2 or 3 starter. 

However, all three also have their warts. Rodriguez has struggled to stay on the field for various orthopedic reasons; Houston still needs to prove that he can be an offensive threat in the high minors; and Hill’s K-BB% is a paltry 15.8 because of an atmospherically high 18.4% walk rate. It’s highly unlikely that Baltimore would part with Henderson, and if they do, a fervent bidding war would quickly commence. It’s doubtful that the Twins would be able to come out on top without offering Jenkins, Rodriguez, and more. 

What may give teams pause, however, is Henderson’s significant drop in bat speed—from 76.3 mph in 2024 to 75.3 mph in 2025 to 74.4 mph in 2026—and average exit velocity–92.8 mph to 92.1 mph to 89.5 mph. Correspondingly, he’s also seemingly lost all ability to hit fastballs, producing a paltry .276 SLG and -8 run value in 2026. Are these trends reversible or the sign of an early decline? That's something teams around the league, and the Orioles themselves, must wrestle with. Add in that Henderson has never really graded out well defensively according to Outs Above Average, and it's safe to wonder if the juice would be worth the squeeze.

Trea Turner had 1.5 years of team control remaining when the Nationals packaged him with Max Scherzer, who was an impending free agent, and sent him to the Dodgers. While Washington’s return has largely flopped at the major-league level, the return was viewed as appropriate at the time. It also serves as a good example of why teams such as the Twins should be more willing to part with even their high-level prospects.

Trade 3: Hey! A Legit First Baseman!

• Twins Get: 1B Luis Garcia Jr. (1.5 years of control, arbitration)
• Nationals Get: OF Gabriel Gonzalez, RHP Ryan Gallagher

Historical Comparison:

• Nationals Get: SS Kevin Made (team top 20-30 prospect), LHP DJ Herz (1.7 fWAR in 2024; team top 15-20 prospect)
• Cubs Get: INF Jeimer Candelario (pending free agent, 126 OPS+ when traded, 16 home runs)

Luis Garcia Jr. is having a breakout age-26 season. His 132 OPS+ is a career-best, as are his 20 home runs, and he ranks 17th in the National League among qualified hitters in overall production. He rarely strikes out (15.7%) and has a propensity to hit the ball very hard (91.9 mph average exit velocity; 46.9% hard-hit rate; both well above average) despite a 40.5% chase rate, one of the league's worst. Defensively, he is average, registering 0 Outs Above Average, which would actually be a pretty solid upgrade over Lewis, Victor Caratini, and Josh Bell.

While Garcia seems like an attainable target on the surface, many dominoes would have to fall in the Twins’ favor for them to gain his services. First, the Nationals would have to decide to sell; they’re currently only two games out of the third Wild Card spot in the NL. Second, Minnesota would have to decide that they actually want to upgrade at first base. As mentioned above, Lewis has been… fine… since getting recalled. If the team was to move on from him, it might make more sense to do so during the offseason, as he would have more time to show that his turnaround is legit. Third, Garcia will be one of the more attractive first base options for contending teams, so the Twins would have to hope a bidding war doesn’t price them out. 

The Nationals were in a vaguely similar position at the 2023 deadline with Jeimer Candelario. However, he was an impending free agent, and Washington was bad. Candelario was performing similarly to how Garcia is, and split time between first and third base with the Cubs. Chicago gave up two mid-level prospects to acquire fewer than 50 games of Candelario’s services. With an extra full year of team control, the Twins would likely have to surrender multiple prospects in the 10-20 range on their own list.

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None of these players would be full-fledged instant fixes for a flawed Twins roster. They would, however, represent the kind of big swing fans seem to crave, and could put the Twins on the right side of the dividing line between the want-tos and the doers in 2026. They'd each also offer some kind of help to the 2027 team, which is an important consideration for a team ready to contend but not ready to go all-in. Let's dream a little.

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[thelanges5]

Thanks for providing trade scenarios and not just a wish list!

[Mike Sixel]

Thankfully you aren't the GM yikes. 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Ummm - absolutely no.  Trading multiple really good assets for 2 months - seriously what are they trying to achieve.  

[Wedman13]

Biggest Marek Houston fan around but I'm 💯 in on #2

fun article!

[mickster]

2 minutes ago, Wedman13 said:

Biggest Marek Houston fan around but I'm 💯 in on #2

fun article!

I would be solidly behind this as well.......

[LA Vikes Fan]

Thanks for this these, much more fun talk about real possible trades rather than generalities. I like scenarios 2 and 3. I would strongly consider doing them if they were possible. Scenario 1 seems like paying too much for 1/2 season from Freddy Peralta unless there is some concept that we would have an inside track to re-signing him. I like Weaver, but would rather talk about a straight trade just for him, may be for an 8-12 prospect like Henry Mendez or Kendry Rojas. 

[TwinkieFan4life]

42 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Thankfully you aren't the GM yikes. 

Great job going straight to personal insult while adding no substantive take of your own.  Really added to the conversation.

The option of trading for a talented young shortstop with a track record of past success interests me.  It would sure up the infield while raising the offensive ceiling for the team (immediately).

[Rufus]

Even if the Twins make the play-offs this year, they most certainly would be knocked out in an early round.  Now is the time for them to stock up. on prospects.  Not the time to be trading away top prospects.  Trade Larnach, Jeffers, Kreidler, Bell,  maybe Ryan (next year is probably a wash out and in '28 these guys will be 2 years older,. The same for any of the veterans proposed in your scenarios) for more prospects.  Bring up the guys knocking at the door in St Paul to see what they can do. If the minimum salary floor is raised.  Then the Twins will have seen what the newbies can do and have money to extend those that look promising.

[Chad93]

Twins need to trade veterans and build for future and create a young core they aren't close to being a championship roster 

[Linus]

I like the Weaver idea as he’s not a rental and the bullpen problem is going to need some outside solutions. I am not willing to trade any upper level prospects for this club with two exceptions. G Gonzalez and Mendez would be available for good relievers. I’m done with slow guys that can’t field 

[1985Fan]

Not enamored with any of these scenarios. The way the Twins have played recently, they’re going to be in sell mode. If that does happen, I hope it’s trading away short term veterans (Jeffers, Bell, Gray, maybe Larnach)for prospects. Judging by last few games debacle, it doesn’t look like a win now team. 

[Dman]

Why trade for short term assets especially since we don't know how much baseball there will be in 2027?  There's too many holes to fill and they will need prospects to hopefully fill them.  They have several core pieces ready to come up in Roden, Culpepper, Rodriguez, Jenkins, and hopefully Houston next year. Along with Gonzalez and Mendez as bat first guys

I'd be more inclined to trade for prospects than trade them away. Unless it is the defensively flawed Gonzalez and Mendez.

I especially hate trade number 2.  Why trade three potential top 100 prospects for a guy who currently has a .695 OPS?  Kreidler is currently hitting better than that and we have Culpepper on the way to play short.  I think these are the types of moves that leaves a team bad for along time.

If you trade for Garcia who is having a good year what are you doing with Lewis?  Since Lewis came back from AAA he's been close to an .800 OPS bat so how much are you really gaining here?  Trading Gonzalez doesn't bother me too much, but I just don't see the overall value for the team.

If you really want to push the chips in on this year I can get behind trade #1, but giving up a possible ace arm, and 5 tool player along with Lewis seems steep to me.  Still at least this trade is for arms which is the weakness of this team. If I had to choose one deal that would begrudgingly be it.

[jimmyc]

#1.  The Mets would gladly trade both of those pitchers.  But they probably want more MLB ready players.  I go back and forth about it but probably too much to give up for .5 yrs. of a starter and 1.5 of a reliever.

 #2.  Gunnar is going nowhere and SS is the one spot that is in good shape in the Twins system.  Not trading him at a low point.

#3.  For 1 1/2 years of a 1B.  Another lefty bat, really?  Will take more to get Garcia and clogs the roster even further.  1b is not currently a big problem.

[HarmonK03]

57 minutes ago, Rufus said:

Even if the Twins make the play-offs this year, they most certainly would be knocked out in an early round.  Now is the time for them to stock up. on prospects.  Not the time to be trading away top prospects.  Trade Larnach, Jeffers, Kreidler, Bell,  maybe Ryan (next year is probably a wash out and in '28 these guys will be 2 years older,. The same for any of the veterans proposed in your scenarios) for more prospects.  Bring up the guys knocking at the door in St Paul to see what they can do. If the minimum salary floor is raised.  Then the Twins will have seen what the newbies can do and have money to extend those that look promising.

Do you really believe there is a market for Kreidler, maybe a rookie ball prospect at best.

[HarmonK03]

26 minutes ago, Dman said:

They have several core pieces ready to come up in Roden, Culpepper, Rodriguez, Jenkins, and hopefully Houston next year.

How is Roden a core piece, what has he done that says he is someone to build around, what is the fascination with him.  He may be a fourth outfielder, but a core piece, I don't think so.

[bjorks]

Rather keep Clemens and his versatility than trade away those guys. If they want Wallner/Lewis/etc. so be it. 

[howeda7]

Trade Jeffers for whatever you can get. If we are in it on July 30th add a couple mid level bullpen arms. If we are out of it, trade Bell and Rogers for lottery tickets. 

There's no reason to go full sell mode or trade top 10 prospects for a likely pipe dream this year.

[Dman]

10 minutes ago, HarmonK03 said:

How is Roden a core piece, what has he done that says he is someone to build around, what is the fascination with him.  He may be a fourth outfielder, but a core piece, I don't think so.

He might not be. We just don't know yet. I don't love his profile but he has been very successful at AAA and he is better defensively than some players we have.  Given Keaschal is playing outfield now along with likely Rodriguez and Jenkins he likely is the 4th outfielder if not traded.  Still he is young and controllable and part of the future core until he isn't.  That goes for every player I named.  They have to succeed once they get to MLB and that is very hard to do. If they do they form the core if not then next man up.

[Andy MacPhail]

I love Houston's glove & his bat has been impressive. IMO, Houston is untouchable.  I'd like the Peralta/ Weaver trade possibility but don't like what we give up. I'm willing to give up a Gonzalez & Tait though. They have enough hype to get something back & they are expendable.

If Twins sells again, please no more distant prospects.

[Colbeh]

The Astros were rumored earlier in the year in trading Hunter Brown, I believe there is a rift with Brown and their GM (Also Brown). 

He had a shoulder injury earlier in the year and hasnt pitched like his former Cy Young self since coming back, could be some risk there but if the price is right he'd be an interesting pitcher to go after. Controllable through 2028.

I think a package built around Roriguez + Tait could kick things off, they'd probably atleast want a pitcher back or two from the lower levels.

Only downside besides the injury risk is that his agent is Boras. 

[ashbury]

8 minutes ago, Andy MacPhail said:

If Twins sells again, please no more distant prospects.

If a contender wants guys to help them with a pennant push, why would they give us useful major league players in return?  The only guys in their mid-twenties they will be willing to part with are the ones they want an upgrade to - likely these will be downgrades versus what we already have, too.  

If a team's not a contender, they won't want two months of Jeffers for example.

Prospects are the coin of the realm at the deadline.  You're either collecting them, or disbursing them, or standing pat.

IMO the Twins should pivot to wheeler-dealer mode.  Accept high-level prospects in return for the active major leaguers they want (or are willing) to cut ties with.  In conjunction, trade prospects to bottom feeder teams who have major league ready talent that they aren't in a position to make use of yet.  These prospects going out could be guys we already have (with new ones replacing them), or guys we flip soon after we obtain them.

But then, maybe I've been playing the OOTP game for too many years. 

[HarmonK03]

6 minutes ago, Dman said:

He might not be. We just don't know yet. I don't love his profile but he has been very successful at AAA and he is better defensively than some players we have.  Given Keaschal is playing outfield now along with likely Rodriguez and Jenkins he likely is the 4th outfielder if not traded.  Still he is young and controllable and part of the future core until he isn't.  That goes for every player I named.  They have to succeed once they get to MLB and that is very hard to do. If they do they form the core if not then next man up.

Your comment made it sound like someone that was on the way and would be a core piece, so we might have a different definition of core.  He is someone to me that if he fights his way into the picture and can produce fine, but he hasn't that to date unlike the others you mentioned.  And he is not really young anymore, he will be 27 before next season begins, that is starting to creep past prospect stage at that age.

[Dman]

Just now, HarmonK03 said:

Your comment made it sound like someone that was on the way and would be a core piece, so we might have a different definition of core.  He is someone to me that if he fights his way into the picture and can produce fine, but he hasn't that to date unlike the others you mentioned.  And he is not really young anymore, he will be 27 before next season begins, that is starting to creep past prospect stage at that age.

I only include him as core as he has several years of control left, but you are correct at 27 next year not young.  So if you don't want to include him I am fine with that definition.   

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, TwinkieFan4life said:

Great job going straight to personal insult while adding no substantive take of your own.  Really added to the conversation.

The option of trading for a talented young shortstop with a track record of past success interests me.  It would sure up the infield while raising the offensive ceiling for the team (immediately).

He's trading for 1.5 years of a starting pitcher and first baseman when this team is not so that good. That's short sighted and bad strategy. 

There was nothing personal in that post, it was clearly about the content, not the person. 

Look, this team isn't close to great. It should be building for 28 and beyond, not this year or likely next year. Not if the goal is championships. 

Are we sure Henderson will be better than the internal options when the current prospects are in their prime? 

This post completely gives up on the future, for the next 1.5 years. I didn't see anyway that's a good idea. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

This scenario playing out would be fun. If they made the Peralta trade I would hope Tom would ok an extension.

I don’t see Gunnar coming here without Jenkins going out. So that would be a non starter for me.

What do you think of Isaac Paredes as a 1b target instead? The twins were listed as an option in the athletic trade rankings and his pull power at target field would be really beneficial in my opinion. 
 

Thanks!

[Cory Engelhardt]

5 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

He's trading for 1.5 years of a starting pitcher and first baseman when this team is not so that good. That's short sighted and bad strategy. 

There was nothing personal in that post, it was clearly about the content, not the person. 

Look, this team isn't close to great. It should be building for 28 and beyond, not this year or likely next year. Not if the goal is championships. 

Are we sure Henderson will be better than the internal options when the current prospects are in their prime? 

This post completely gives up on the future, for the next 1.5 years. I didn't see anyway that's a good idea. 

It’s not giving up Jenkins or Lackey. 

[chpettit19]

Yeah, sorry, no interest in giving up so many possible future pieces for a shot in 2026 and 2027. None whatsoever. The only buying the Twins should do this year is trading guys like DeBarge for reliever help. Guys with near 0% chances of being real MLB pieces. 

Gunnar Henderson is an interesting buy low piece, but the Orioles have no reason to move him. No interest in any of the other guys here.

I have very real concerns that Pohlad may push the FO into something resembling this kind of plan, but I'm very much hoping they stay away from selling any of the future for trying to make a run at .500 this year. Trade Ryan and Jeffers and build for 2027 and beyond.

[Mike Sixel]

10 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

It’s not giving up Jenkins or Lackey. 

It depletes the depth, for what? They have no realistic chance this year. Could it happen? Sure. Should they bet it will happen? No imo. 

Why are the Orioles making this trade? They have the same record as Minnesota. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

5 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

It depletes the depth, for what? They have no realistic chance this year. Could it happen? Sure. Should they bet it will happen? No imo. 

Why are the Orioles making this trade? They have the same record as Minnesota. 

I’d argue it doesn’t really deplete the depth. They still have Jenkins and Lackey and Keaschall and Lee and Culpepper and Buxton and countless others. Plus I have a hard time banking on Rodriguez truly ever staying healthy, and Tait’s 90th percentile is still a long ways away.

I don’t know that I see Gunnar being traded either. But it is a fun thought experiment