Twins Trade Deadline Buying Guide: Dream Scenarios

[thelanges5]

Larnach + prospect outside the top 25 for Bradgley Rodriguez or Victor Vodnik

Jeffers to Rays for Ty Johnson and a pitcher in their top 25-50 

Keep Ryan for now you can always trade him in the off-season or at the next trade deadline. 

I’m listening on Bell. 

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I’d argue it doesn’t really deplete the depth. They still have Jenkins and Lackey and Keaschall and Lee and Culpepper and Buxton and countless others. Plus I have a hard time banking on Rodriguez truly ever staying healthy, and Tait’s 90th percentile is still a long ways away.

I don’t know that I see Gunnar being traded either. But it is a fun thought experiment

All fair. It's the other two trades I really didn't like 

Why are people trading for a first baseman? Lewis is league average there since moving over. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

1 minute ago, Mike Sixel said:

All fair. It's the other two trades I really didn't like 

Why are people trading for a first baseman? Lewis is league average there since moving over. 

I agree with you on this too. I don’t know if they think Lewis is a core guy or not. I’m not even certain if he is more a 2b or 1b. I don’t know that I’d pursue Garcia Jr over a number of other options (I like Isaac Paredes more as an example) but I think he did that because of the Peralta/Weaver trade needing Lewis apparently. 
All a fun thought experiment 

[Mike Sixel]

Btw, I'm a huge fan of the OP..... Just not this set of ideas. 

[Lucas Seehafer PT]

Perhaps I did a bad job explaining the purpose of this article/series. 

This is *not* me saying here are three moves I would make. It's saying, should the Twins decide they are buyers and should they decide they want to shoot for the moon, given the likely players available at the deadline, here is what they would likely have to give up based on past precedent.

I would 100% NOT do all three of these in conjunction. Also, as I said in the piece, don't focus as much on the specific names; focus more on the roles they represent: a recent high impact starter on an expiring deal and a good bullpen arm; a potential long-term fit at shortstop; a legitimate first baseman under some team control, etc.

[TheLeviathan]

So....the Orioles, with an equal record to ours, are giving up a young player who is having a down year after a star breakout and the Nationals, who are 3 games better than us, are dumping one of their better young players?

Twins Daily the last two weeks:

[Mike Sixel]

12 minutes ago, Lucas Seehafer PT said:

Perhaps I did a bad job explaining the purpose of this article/series. 

This is *not* me saying here are three moves I would make. It's saying, should the Twins decide they are buyers and should they decide they want to shoot for the moon, given the likely players available at the deadline, here is what they would likely have to give up based on past precedent.

I would 100% NOT do all three of these in conjunction. Also, as I said in the piece, don't focus as much on the specific names; focus more on the roles they represent: a recent high impact starter on an expiring deal and a good bullpen arm; a potential long-term fit at shortstop; a legitimate first baseman under some team control, etc.

Fair. If I'm dealing for player, he has to have 3+ years of control, though. It's why I don't hate the SS deal....not sure I do it, but it isn't an awful idea.

[Western SD Fan]

This was taken from the Skor North Twins Show on Friday when discussing untouchables in trades.  They did an analysis of the players taken at a snapshot in time that were the top 15 prospects.  A listener had challenged that we should not trade ANY of our current players in the top 15.  This snapshot was taken from the Twins top prospects (per MLB pipeline) for 2020:

#1 - Royce Lewis:  Not realized the hype but can still be a solid ML player.  Tough to swallow for a #1 overall draft pick.

#2 - Alex Kiriloff:  Out of baseball due to permanent injury.

#3 - Trevor Larnach: Finally realizing some potential.  Likely will never be a high-end contributor to a team.  Should be a solid platoon bat.

#4 - Jordan Balazovic: Out of baseball.  Never truly materialized in any role.

#5 - Jhoan Duran:  Will go down as one of the best closers we have ever had.

#6 - Ryan Jeffers: - Current catcher and one of the best in MLB

Others include:  Keoni Cavaco (Indy ball), Wander Javier, Blaine Enlow, Lewis Thorpe (out of baseball), Matt Canterino (only player hurt more than Buxton), Brent Rooker (A's), Akil Badoo (borderline ML), Matt Wallner (St. Paul), Gilberto Celestino (AAA-Texas)

Out of that list, 10 have actually received ML playing time and only 5 are currently on a ML roster.  This could be from drafting, development, or both.

The point is I believe the organization holds onto prospects too long or doesn't do adequate enough assessments of them to figure out if they truly can help the organization.  If you are truly going to go for it, you need to be willing to trade assets and prospects that other teams actually want.  Not doing this has led us to trade deadline deals that involve Sam Dyson or Trevor Richards, if we were lucky enough to get that result.  

As to respond to the trade possibilities listed above, I'm not sure I do any of them.  Peralta is going to require more than the Twins are willing to pay, in both cash and prospects.  If you bring Gunner in, what do you do with Culpepper, or Lee, Clemens, Lewis, and possibly Roden, Martin, and Keaschall for that matter?  One or two of that combination would have to be traded to make room for Gunner.  For the last one, I am sticking with Royce as my guy at 1B.  He is getting better at defense there and while he is not swinging the hottest bat in the lineup, his bat is not detrimental to the team like it was earlier in the season.  I also get an extra year of arbitration with Lewis that I don't get with a potential trade of Garcia, Jr.

I'm still in the camp of doing what Tampa Bay does at trade deadlines.  Trading away expiring contracts from positions of strength and acquiring expiring contracts from needed positions.  You don't sell out the farm, but you keep yourself in contention.  Especially this year since we don't know what next year may bring.

[Rufus]

2 hours ago, HarmonK03 said:

Do you really believe there is a market for Kreidler, maybe a rookie ball prospect at best.

When if not now? He's having a career year some one who needs a good fielding SS, utility man to fill in their roster for a play off run.  They got a couple of decent prospects for Castro last year.  

[NYCTK]

2 hours ago, jimmyc said:

#1.  The Mets would gladly trade both of those pitchers.  But they probably want more MLB ready players.  I go back and forth about it but probably too much to give up for .5 yrs. of a starter and 1.5 of a reliever.

I think it's an ok offer, but I just want to point out that no one wants Royce Lewis, but especially not the Mets who have 2 Royce Lewises on their roster already in Brett Baty and Mark Vientos.  

[Metrodome Kid]

I like the first two. Not interested in the third, but overall fun to think about.

[Mike Sixel]

20 minutes ago, Western SD Fan said:

This was taken from the Skor North Twins Show on Friday when discussing untouchables in trades.  They did an analysis of the players taken at a snapshot in time that were the top 15 prospects.  A listener had challenged that we should not trade ANY of our current players in the top 15.  This snapshot was taken from the Twins top prospects (per MLB pipeline) for 2020:

#1 - Royce Lewis:  Not realized the hype but can still be a solid ML player.  Tough to swallow for a #1 overall draft pick.

#2 - Alex Kiriloff:  Out of baseball due to permanent injury.

#3 - Trevor Larnach: Finally realizing some potential.  Likely will never be a high-end contributor to a team.  Should be a solid platoon bat.

#4 - Jordan Balazovic: Out of baseball.  Never truly materialized in any role.

#5 - Jhoan Duran:  Will go down as one of the best closers we have ever had.

#6 - Ryan Jeffers: - Current catcher and one of the best in MLB

Others include:  Keoni Cavaco (Indy ball), Wander Javier, Blaine Enlow, Lewis Thorpe (out of baseball), Matt Canterino (only player hurt more than Buxton), Brent Rooker (A's), Akil Badoo (borderline ML), Matt Wallner (St. Paul), Gilberto Celestino (AAA-Texas)

Out of that list, 10 have actually received ML playing time and only 5 are currently on a ML roster.  This could be from drafting, development, or both.

The point is I believe the organization holds onto prospects too long or doesn't do adequate enough assessments of them to figure out if they truly can help the organization.  If you are truly going to go for it, you need to be willing to trade assets and prospects that other teams actually want.  Not doing this has led us to trade deadline deals that involve Sam Dyson or Trevor Richards, if we were lucky enough to get that result.  

As to respond to the trade possibilities listed above, I'm not sure I do any of them.  Peralta is going to require more than the Twins are willing to pay, in both cash and prospects.  If you bring Gunner in, what do you do with Culpepper, or Lee, Clemens, Lewis, and possibly Roden, Martin, and Keaschall for that matter?  One or two of that combination would have to be traded to make room for Gunner.  For the last one, I am sticking with Royce as my guy at 1B.  He is getting better at defense there and while he is not swinging the hottest bat in the lineup, his bat is not detrimental to the team like it was earlier in the season.  I also get an extra year of arbitration with Lewis that I don't get with a potential trade of Garcia, Jr.

I'm still in the camp of doing what Tampa Bay does at trade deadlines.  Trading away expiring contracts from positions of strength and acquiring expiring contracts from needed positions.  You don't sell out the farm, but you keep yourself in contention.  Especially this year since we don't know what next year may bring.

What do you think the hit rate is?

There are 5-8 MLB players there, plus a guy that was injured.....though I agree, there could be more decisiveness by this organization. 

[HarmonK03]

30 minutes ago, Rufus said:

When if not now? He's having a career year some one who needs a good fielding SS, utility man to fill in their roster for a play off run.  They got a couple of decent prospects for Castro last year.  

One month of production is going to make everyone forget his history.  Casto had two and a half years of production.  This is no different than everyone was saying Arcia would be a trade chip after his first couple of games up here.  And how many teams claimed  him when he was on waivers.  And Kreidler has cooled off as he has played more.  He is a decent utility player but he is not a needle mover.

[weitz41]

I'm firmly in the don't waste the prospects column for this season. But I too have the itch to hope they try and go for it. Just in a much smaller way then 2 of the 3 you mentioned.

Luis Garcia would be a nice add to the team. I don't think I'd part with GG for him but Gallager and say Rosario or DeBarge.

A little buy and a little sell is probably the best way to go this season. IMO

[jkcarew]

This dream is a nightmare.