The Twins' Biggest Strength Could Create a Major Dilemma

[Sam Caulder]

Image courtesy of © Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images

The Minnesota Twins have no shortage of pitching depth, and that's a great problem to have—especially when situations like the one they're dealing with right now pop up. At the moment, the Twins essentially have two starting rotations: a healthy one and an injured one. Their current major-league rotation consists of Joe Ryan, Taj Bradley, Connor Prielipp, Zebby Matthews, and Mike Paredes. Despite some inconsistencies, that group has managed to keep the Twins afloat while the organization waits for reinforcements.

Those reinforcements are significant, too. Pablo López, Mick Abel, Bailey Ober, David Festa, and Kendry Rojas are all currently on the injured list. Assuming they return fully healthy, that's five additional starting pitching options already in the organization. Add those names to the current group, and suddenly you're looking at 10 pitchers who could realistically make a case for a rotation spot in 2027, before considering any more young arms who progress to readiness for the bigs or the possibility that the club takes a starter with the No. 3 overall pick in next month's MLB Draft.

Having too many options is a good problem to have, but 10 starters fighting for five or six rotation spots feels a little excessive. So, what moves or decisions could the Twins make to clear up the picture? And more importantly, what could their 2027 starting rotation actually look like?

The first place to start is with the pitchers who may ultimately fit better in hybrid roles. Festa and Paredes have both given us reasons to remain intrigued. But if we're projecting forward, each may ultimately provide more value as a long reliever or spot starter, rather than full-time rotation pieces. For Festa, the stuff is intriguing, but he hasn't consistently worked deep into games. The same can be said for Paredes, who has largely been developed as a length reliever. Both pitchers have averaged fewer than five innings per start, neither has an extensive major-league track record as a starter, and both have seen their numbers worsen significantly once opposing lineups get a second or third look at them.

That's not necessarily a knock on either pitcher. Plenty of valuable arms have carved out successful careers in bullpen roles. But for the sake of this exercise, let's move Festa and Paredes out of the rotation conversation and into bullpen roles. That brings us down from 10 names to eight.

I still believe Joe Ryan will not be a member of the Twins by the start of next season. Ryan has been outstanding this year. In fact, that's part of the reason why moving him makes so much sense. The Twins entered the season with expectations of competing, but if they ultimately fall short, Ryan could become one of the most valuable starting pitchers available on the trade market. He's performing at an extremely high level. Contenders would line up for his services, and Minnesota has enough pitching depth behind him to at least entertain the possibility. Surely, such a deal would bring back a potential starter, too, so that player could go into the mix for the moment when injuries force the team to turn to its store of prospect arms.

Bailey Ober is another name worth discussing. If the Twins decide to make additional trades, Ober could certainly generate interest. He's proven he can be a reliable major-league starter despite lackluster velocity, and teams are always looking for affordable pitching. That said, given his current injury situation and the uncertainty that comes with it, I'd lean toward him remaining with the organization through the start of 2027 in what would be a contract year for him.

Matthews has had an up-and-down professional career. At times, he's looked like a potential mid-rotation starter with excellent control of the strike zone and swing-and-miss ability. At other times, he's struggled to put hitters away consistently and has been prone to giving up damaging contact. Because of that, he feels like another pitcher who could attract interest from other organizations. A team looking to buy low on upside might view Matthews as an ideal trade target. Still, if I'm making a prediction today, I think he sticks around.

That brings us to the actual projection. If I had to guess what the Twins' 2027 starting rotation looks like right now, I don't think it'll be a traditional five-man group. Given the injury history throughout this staff and the direction major-league pitching continues to trend, a six-man rotation feels increasingly likely. And if that's the route the Twins take, here's how I see it shaping up.

López would headline the group. Assuming he's healthy—and all indications suggest he should be—he remains the most accomplished starter in the organization and the obvious choice to lead the staff. Behind him, Bradley slots in as the No. 2 starter. Bradley's power arsenal and ability to miss bats give him frontline upside, and he's already shown stretches where he looks capable of dominating major-league hitters. Another offseason of development could take him to that full-on frontline starter. Abel would follow. He has flashed the raw stuff to become a major factor in the rotation if he can stay healthy and continue refining his command.

Prielipp comes next. Injuries have always been the biggest question mark, but the talent has never been in doubt. Few pitchers in the organization possess his combination of stuff and upside, and he would give opposing teams a different look from the left side in the middle of the rotation. Ober would occupy the fifth spot, giving the rotation a unit different look from the harder-throwing arms ahead of him. And finally, Matthews rounds out the six-man unit. When he's right, Matthews has shown enough to justify continued opportunities as a starter, and the Twins may ultimately decide his upside is worth betting on. That leaves Rojas as the odd man out in my book (for now).

What makes this group particularly interesting is the variety it offers. You have power arms and control specialists. You have different pitch mixes, different release points, and different ways of attacking hitters. And perhaps most importantly, you'd still have additional depth waiting in the wings. Festa, Rojas, and Paredes could all serve as bullpen weapons, spot starters, or emergency rotation options when injuries inevitably arise. Because if there's one thing we've learned over the past few years, it's that you can never have too much pitching.

The Twins may soon find themselves in a situation where they have more viable starters than available rotation spots. And while that could force some difficult decisions, it's ultimately the kind of problem every organization would love to have. That's how I see the Twins' 2027 rotation shaping up right now.

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But what do you think? Which names would you keep, and which ones would you move? Let me know in the comments!

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[DJL44]

The depth is such a dilemma right now that Mike Paredes is in the rotation…

[Linus]

Smh…..

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Nope.  No dilemma - not even a minor one.  Absolute worst case scenario IF they actually are all healthy and develop as expected is that a couple go to the bullpen and a couple are traded.  Try as I might, I can't think of a situation where having too many starting pitchers is a problem of any sort.  Let's hope we're the first.  

[Road trip]

At this point next year, at least three of them will be on the IL.  Bank on it.  That is the nature of MLB pitching in the 2020s.

[thelanges5]

Another good problem to have. 

[karcherd]

50 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

The depth is such a dilemma right now that Mike Paredes is in the rotation…

Actually Paredes isn't even considered a starter.  We have four starters currently with all our supposed depth.

[IndianaTwin]

The first place to start in the 2027 planning is to recognize that it's very unlikely Ryan will be available on Opening Day. I'm optimistic he'll return healthy, but the shortest return in history for a pitcher is reportedly 397 days. Much more likely is a May or June return at the earliest. 

 

EDIT: I meant Lopez. 

[gman]

1 hour ago, IndianaTwin said:

The first place to start in the 2027 planning is to recognize that it's very unlikely Ryan will be available on Opening Day. I'm optimistic he'll return healthy, but the shortest return in history for a pitcher is reportedly 397 days. Much more likely is a May or June return at the earliest. 

I'm hoping you mean Lopez. I sure hope nothing has happened to Ryan.

[Sam Caulder]

1 hour ago, IndianaTwin said:

The first place to start in the 2027 planning is to recognize that it's very unlikely Ryan will be available on Opening Day. I'm optimistic he'll return healthy, but the shortest return in history for a pitcher is reportedly 397 days. Much more likely is a May or June return at the earliest. 

Assuming this is in regard to Lopez, had it been Tommy John surgery, I'd agree. But he only had to have internal brace surgery, which is a quicker recovery timeline. It's not 100% certain he'll be ready, but all of the early reports suggest he should be.

[ashbury]

Quote

10 starters fighting for five or six rotation spots feels a little excessive.

Wake me when we have 10 healthy starters vying for playing time, and then we'll talk.  Nine, even.

[KirbyDome89]

C'mon....

We had the "too much depth," argument this spring. They just threw a bullpen game because they have 4 starters. It's mid June. Other than Ryan there isn't a single arm listed that you're writing in pen, and he's a coin flip to be here after the ASB. Pablo is coming off TJ, who knows what he'll look like next year, and if he's average or better he's probably getting flipped too. 

Ober is a reinforcement at this point? I don't think Festa, Parades, or Rojas are SPs for different reasons. Zebby and Taj have major consistency issues. Prelipp and Abel are both health and performance question marks. 

"Depth," at least as it's defined by this fan base, is the new "pitch to contact." It's a weird obsession, or something that fans have co-opted. If "depth," is simply names to cycle through, the 2026 Twins might have one of the deepest bullpens of all time....

[Dman]

I think this a good exercise to think about the future.  Personally I think there are two ways this could go.  It feels like Tom Pohlad wants this team to be a winner sooner rather than later so I am not so sure Ryan will be traded.  If not traded the Twins could role out one of the better rotations in their division with Ryan, Lopez, Bradley, Abel and Preilipp.  I think that's a rotation that would give the team a great chance to win every game.  It would be a one year all the chips in move as both Ryan and Lopez would likely get qualifying offers and be gone after 2027. Still if Tom wants to win right away that seems like the best way to do it IMO.

The other way would be to trade Ryan for a close to ready arm and some other assets and move on with Lopez, Bradley, Abel, Preilipp, and Mathews or Rojas.  That's still a good rotation and there is a chance Quick or Gallagher or someone they trade for might be able to be depth by mid 2027.  In this scenario you sell high on Ryan and hopefully come away with good future assets without too much damage being done.  You still lose Lopez at the end of 2027, but hopefully you have arms like Soto and Hill close to ready for 2028.  

I'd also see if they can trade Ober at this years deadline regardless of either scenario.  The velocity is down and I just think they have better options for the 26 man moving forward.  If they can get something decent I'd move him.

I agree Paredes is a pen arm and if Festa can ever come back from the shoulder injury he would be a pen arm.  I think Morris stays in the pen as well.  

I think the Twins will have decent depth when it comes to arms next year and into the future and if they are active at the trade deadline they can add to that depth.  Given that guys like Paredes and Rojas seem like pen arms that can give you some long relief when needed adds to that depth.  

So in conclusion while we have ten arms that could be starters the reality is several of those are likely pen arms or can certainly be used in the pen as the Twins find the best starting five. The few left over provide depth that will be needed. There is no surplus here IMO.

[Patzky]

4 hours ago, DJL44 said:

The depth is such a dilemma right now that Mike Paredes is in the rotation…

Could be worse, we could have gotten Andrew Painter instead of Mick Abel last year for Duran

 

[Steve Lein]

Festa, Rojas, and Parades in the bullpen and then this "issue" doesn't exist.

[mrguy]

I don't think it will be much of a difficult decision, more whether or not it will create another Griffin Jax situation where one of these guys doesn't want to be a reliever even if they're good in that spot and welcomes being traded if it means they will be able to to be tried out as a starter. Assuming Ryan and Ober are shopped around, I imagine the pitching lineup will likely be:

Lopez, Prielipp, Taj, Abel, Zebby/Rojas getting the last spot. Festa and Paredes are guys that could probably be starters with some work, but are more better fit to be relievers under this current situation. I think from there, then you have to imagine what the question will be next year when some of the current St. Paul guys might be ready like Gallagher and CJ and hopefully finally Raya, but with their current use in St. Paul, at least 2 of those will likely end up as relievers. 

[chpettit19]

The Dodgers currently have Tyler Glasnow, Roki Sasaki, Blake Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and some guy named Ohtani in their organization. They're running Emmet Sheehan, Eric Lauer, and Justin Wrobleski out in their rotation currently.

There's never been a team in the history of organized sports that had too much talent. There is no such thing as a log jam. There's no such thing as somebody being blocked. There's no such thing as having "too many position X" players in your organization. There's never a dilemma. You can have up to 13 pitchers on your major league roster. Until somebody has the 14 best arms in baseball all on their team and all healthy at the same time, there's no dilemma. 

Too much talent has never been a dilemma, problem, or anything else for anybody. Ever. And the names we're throwing around aren't exactly Glasnow, Sasaki, Snell, Yamamoto, and Ohtani.

[Cory Engelhardt]

Couple of things;

1) IF Ryan isn't in the rotation to start next year, I have to think someone comes back via trade that will be.

2) Riley Quick is closer to this discussion, in my opinion, than we are giving credit for. Not for 2026, but for 2027.

 

I hope there is a 2027 season.

[IndianaTwin]

3 hours ago, Sam Caulder said:

Assuming this is in regard to Lopez, had it been Tommy John surgery, I'd agree. But he only had to have internal brace surgery, which is a quicker recovery timeline. It's not 100% certain he'll be ready, but all of the early reports suggest he should be.

Thanks for the clarification on the surgery. And yes, I was intending to reference Lopez. Apologies. 

[IndianaTwin]

4 hours ago, gman said:

I'm hoping you mean Lopez. I sure hope nothing has happened to Ryan.

Yes, Lopez. Apologies for any unnecessary heart palpitations. 

[tony&rodney]

To be 100% certain, there is no such thing as too much pitching. Remember that before thinking about the current or future group at all times.

That said Dman is right on when he states that thinking of the Twins pitching possibilities is a good exercise.

We can line up Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Taj Bradley, and Connor Prielipp as one group.        Mick Abel, Zebby Matthews, Kendry Rojas, Andrew Morris, David Festa, and  Mike Paredes are decent. Dasan Hill, Charlee Soto, James Ellwanger, Adrian Bohorquez, Marco Raya, and others are coming and Jackson Flora could join the party. Watching Riley Quick today, one can see he just needs innings and opportunity. Like everyone else (except Doc Gooden and very few others) young pitchers  have everything to earn.

So Twins fans can have some fun thinking about the possibilities of where the pitching staff is headed. We can make outrageous claims and suggestions and push forward unlikely transactions too. The success of pitchers always depends on gaining experience with command and control and the maintenance of good health being paramount to actually fulfill any potential. 

I too like to occasionally wonder about how this staff will look. If Ryan must be traded, can the Twins add a couple of guys to him to pry away a top ten prospect? Would Milwaukee even consider an outrageous package for Jesus Made or Sacramento for Leodalis De Vries? Can the Twins find a way to acquire the struggling Jackson Holiday or is he even worth it? What about discussing Franklin Arias with Boston? Naturally, nearly every top guy is beyond reach but I'm hoping the Twins can build a team the defends and hits. Moving a couple of players, including a pitcher or two, may be a possible course of action. One can only hope.

 

 

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I hope there is a 2027 season.

If there isn't, a few billionaires may jump off of rooftops. Just imagine the damage to the gambling industry alone.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

26 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

To be 100% certain, there is no such thing as too much pitching. Remember that before thinking about the current or future group at all times.

That said Dman is right on when he states that thinking of the Twins pitching possibilities is a good exercise.

We can line up Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Taj Bradley, and Connor Prielipp as one group.        Mick Abel, Zebby Matthews, Kendry Rojas, Andrew Morris, David Festa, and  Mike Paredes are decent. Dasan Hill, Charlee Soto, James Ellwanger, Adrian Bohorquez, Marco Raya, and others are coming and Jackson Flora could join the party. Watching Riley Quick today, one can see he just needs innings and opportunity. Like everyone else (except Doc Gooden and very few others) young pitchers  have everything to earn.

So Twins fans can have some fun thinking about the possibilities of where the pitching staff is headed. We can make outrageous claims and suggestions and push forward unlikely transactions too. The success of pitchers always depends on gaining experience with command and control and the maintenance of good health being paramount to actually fulfill any potential. 

I too like to occasionally wonder about how this staff will look. If Ryan must be traded, can the Twins add a couple of guys to him to pry away a top ten prospect? Would Milwaukee even consider an outrageous package for Jesus Made or Sacramento for Leodalis De Vries? Can the Twins find a way to acquire the struggling Jackson Holiday or is he even worth it? What about discussing Franklin Arias with Boston? Naturally, nearly every top guy is beyond reach but I'm hoping the Twins can build a team the defends and hits. Moving a couple of players, including a pitcher or two, may be a possible course of action. One can only hope.

 

 

Why do major league pitchers need experience?  A good catcher can call all the pitches. If a 20 year old pitcher can throw the baseball where the catcher tells him, and can throw the ball 100 mph and spin a breaking ball and a changeup, why does he need more experience (Riley Quick, I'm looking at you.)  Not arguing, I'm just asking. 

[Exiled in Illinois]

You started with the premise that we have an abundance of starting pitching, and presented a strong argument that we need more starting pitching!  Nice clickbait title!

[cjm0926]

I see the comments are conflicted about our pitching depth, but as you stated if everything goes right (which it typically doesn't) we would have starting depth of

Ryan, Lopez, Bradley, Abel, Ober, Prielipp, Matthews, Rojas

and bullpen depth of

Klein, Paredes, Festa, Laweryson, Raya, Adams, Sands, Acton, Lawrence, Orze, Rashi, Morris, Gomez, Banda, Funderburk

under contract and currently on the 40-man for next season pending any moves. This is before accounting for any guys like CJ Culpepper, Gallagher, Armstrong, Quick, etc. and any Free agent signings we could (but probably wont) make.

That is too many guys for too few spots, but many are unproven but have options remaining, but for now I am just going to see how the rest of this season goes as these things typically work themselves out. Good article!

[Jim H]

If the new CBA is going to include a salary floor or something equivalent, then why would you trade Ryan or Jeffers? You are going to have to spend money on somebody.  Also whatever you get is not going to as good as those two, at least immediately. So how close to being truly competitive is this team? Is trading our best starter and maybe a near all star catcher going to postpone whatever competitive window the Twins might be approaching?

I don't believe that any of the young starters you have named, have  actually proved that they can remain in a major league rotation. Maybe one or two can a top of the rotation starter maybe not. Ryan is that. 

I hope they don't go to a six man rotation. All you are likely to accomplish  is reduce the number of innings our best starters can cover in a season. I doubt that the reduction in workload will actually reduce injury. Having one more bottom of the rotation  starter or more all reliever games doesn't seem like a benefit to me.

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Why do major league pitchers need experience? 

Mainly because they have never faced MLB hitters. The number of pitches that are thrown in the middle of the plate in the minor leagues is pretty high. Everything is more detailed and the punishment is more severe when a pitcher misses in the major leagues. Misiorowski throws really hard but most of his pitches are on the edge of the zone. Zebby Matthews gets torched in the zone but is very effective when he keeps the batters off balance and stays around the edges of the strike zone. Each level up the ladder is an adjustment. Some pitchers lose confidence in their ability and that is when things gets really tough. Conviction to throw more than one pitch in any count to any batter makes a difference and it generally takes a fair amount of time for every good pitcher.

[gil4]

8 hours ago, IndianaTwin said:

The first place to start in the 2027 planning is to recognize that it's very unlikely Ryan will be available on Opening Day. ...

EDIT: I meant Lopez. 

Trying to give us all heart attacks.  

[Parfigliano]

9 hours ago, Road trip said:

At this point next year, at least three of them will be on the IL.  Bank on it.  That is the nature of MLB pitching in the 2020s.

Only 3?  That's better then this year.

[Parfigliano]

3 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

If there isn't, a few billionaires may jump off of rooftops. Just imagine the damage to the gambling industry alone.

Not enough billionaires jumping.