The Twins' Biggest Strength Could Create a Major Dilemma

[Sam Caulder]

Image courtesy of © Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images

The Minnesota Twins have no shortage of pitching depth, and that's a great problem to have—especially when situations like the one they're dealing with right now pop up. At the moment, the Twins essentially have two starting rotations: a healthy one and an injured one. Their current major-league rotation consists of Joe Ryan, Taj Bradley, Connor Prielipp, Zebby Matthews, and Mike Paredes. Despite some inconsistencies, that group has managed to keep the Twins afloat while the organization waits for reinforcements.

Those reinforcements are significant, too. Pablo López, Mick Abel, Bailey Ober, David Festa, and Kendry Rojas are all currently on the injured list. Assuming they return fully healthy, that's five additional starting pitching options already in the organization. Add those names to the current group, and suddenly you're looking at 10 pitchers who could realistically make a case for a rotation spot in 2027, before considering any more young arms who progress to readiness for the bigs or the possibility that the club takes a starter with the No. 3 overall pick in next month's MLB Draft.

Having too many options is a good problem to have, but 10 starters fighting for five or six rotation spots feels a little excessive. So, what moves or decisions could the Twins make to clear up the picture? And more importantly, what could their 2027 starting rotation actually look like?

The first place to start is with the pitchers who may ultimately fit better in hybrid roles. Festa and Paredes have both given us reasons to remain intrigued. But if we're projecting forward, each may ultimately provide more value as a long reliever or spot starter, rather than full-time rotation pieces. For Festa, the stuff is intriguing, but he hasn't consistently worked deep into games. The same can be said for Paredes, who has largely been developed as a length reliever. Both pitchers have averaged fewer than five innings per start, neither has an extensive major-league track record as a starter, and both have seen their numbers worsen significantly once opposing lineups get a second or third look at them.

That's not necessarily a knock on either pitcher. Plenty of valuable arms have carved out successful careers in bullpen roles. But for the sake of this exercise, let's move Festa and Paredes out of the rotation conversation and into bullpen roles. That brings us down from 10 names to eight.

I still believe Joe Ryan will not be a member of the Twins by the start of next season. Ryan has been outstanding this year. In fact, that's part of the reason why moving him makes so much sense. The Twins entered the season with expectations of competing, but if they ultimately fall short, Ryan could become one of the most valuable starting pitchers available on the trade market. He's performing at an extremely high level. Contenders would line up for his services, and Minnesota has enough pitching depth behind him to at least entertain the possibility. Surely, such a deal would bring back a potential starter, too, so that player could go into the mix for the moment when injuries force the team to turn to its store of prospect arms.

Bailey Ober is another name worth discussing. If the Twins decide to make additional trades, Ober could certainly generate interest. He's proven he can be a reliable major-league starter despite lackluster velocity, and teams are always looking for affordable pitching. That said, given his current injury situation and the uncertainty that comes with it, I'd lean toward him remaining with the organization through the start of 2027 in what would be a contract year for him.

Matthews has had an up-and-down professional career. At times, he's looked like a potential mid-rotation starter with excellent control of the strike zone and swing-and-miss ability. At other times, he's struggled to put hitters away consistently and has been prone to giving up damaging contact. Because of that, he feels like another pitcher who could attract interest from other organizations. A team looking to buy low on upside might view Matthews as an ideal trade target. Still, if I'm making a prediction today, I think he sticks around.

That brings us to the actual projection. If I had to guess what the Twins' 2027 starting rotation looks like right now, I don't think it'll be a traditional five-man group. Given the injury history throughout this staff and the direction major-league pitching continues to trend, a six-man rotation feels increasingly likely. And if that's the route the Twins take, here's how I see it shaping up.

López would headline the group. Assuming he's healthy—and all indications suggest he should be—he remains the most accomplished starter in the organization and the obvious choice to lead the staff. Behind him, Bradley slots in as the No. 2 starter. Bradley's power arsenal and ability to miss bats give him frontline upside, and he's already shown stretches where he looks capable of dominating major-league hitters. Another offseason of development could take him to that full-on frontline starter. Abel would follow. He has flashed the raw stuff to become a major factor in the rotation if he can stay healthy and continue refining his command.

Prielipp comes next. Injuries have always been the biggest question mark, but the talent has never been in doubt. Few pitchers in the organization possess his combination of stuff and upside, and he would give opposing teams a different look from the left side in the middle of the rotation. Ober would occupy the fifth spot, giving the rotation a unit different look from the harder-throwing arms ahead of him. And finally, Matthews rounds out the six-man unit. When he's right, Matthews has shown enough to justify continued opportunities as a starter, and the Twins may ultimately decide his upside is worth betting on. That leaves Rojas as the odd man out in my book (for now).

What makes this group particularly interesting is the variety it offers. You have power arms and control specialists. You have different pitch mixes, different release points, and different ways of attacking hitters. And perhaps most importantly, you'd still have additional depth waiting in the wings. Festa, Rojas, and Paredes could all serve as bullpen weapons, spot starters, or emergency rotation options when injuries inevitably arise. Because if there's one thing we've learned over the past few years, it's that you can never have too much pitching.

The Twins may soon find themselves in a situation where they have more viable starters than available rotation spots. And while that could force some difficult decisions, it's ultimately the kind of problem every organization would love to have. That's how I see the Twins' 2027 rotation shaping up right now.

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But what do you think? Which names would you keep, and which ones would you move? Let me know in the comments!

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[DJL44]

The depth is such a dilemma right now that Mike Paredes is in the rotation…

[Linus]

Smh…..

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Nope.  No dilemma - not even a minor one.  Absolute worst case scenario IF they actually are all healthy and develop as expected is that a couple go to the bullpen and a couple are traded.  Try as I might, I can't think of a situation where having too many starting pitchers is a problem of any sort.  Let's hope we're the first.  

[Road trip]

At this point next year, at least three of them will be on the IL.  Bank on it.  That is the nature of MLB pitching in the 2020s.

[thelanges5]

Another good problem to have. 

[karcherd]

50 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

The depth is such a dilemma right now that Mike Paredes is in the rotation…

Actually Paredes isn't even considered a starter.  We have four starters currently with all our supposed depth.

[IndianaTwin]

The first place to start in the 2027 planning is to recognize that it's very unlikely Ryan will be available on Opening Day. I'm optimistic he'll return healthy, but the shortest return in history for a pitcher is reportedly 397 days. Much more likely is a May or June return at the earliest. 

[gman]

1 hour ago, IndianaTwin said:

The first place to start in the 2027 planning is to recognize that it's very unlikely Ryan will be available on Opening Day. I'm optimistic he'll return healthy, but the shortest return in history for a pitcher is reportedly 397 days. Much more likely is a May or June return at the earliest. 

I'm hoping you mean Lopez. I sure hope nothing has happened to Ryan.

[Sam Caulder]

1 hour ago, IndianaTwin said:

The first place to start in the 2027 planning is to recognize that it's very unlikely Ryan will be available on Opening Day. I'm optimistic he'll return healthy, but the shortest return in history for a pitcher is reportedly 397 days. Much more likely is a May or June return at the earliest. 

Assuming this is in regard to Lopez, had it been Tommy John surgery, I'd agree. But he only had to have internal brace surgery, which is a quicker recovery timeline. It's not 100% certain he'll be ready, but all of the early reports suggest he should be.

[ashbury]

Quote

10 starters fighting for five or six rotation spots feels a little excessive.

Wake me when we have 10 healthy starters vying for playing time and then we'll talk.  Nine, even.

[KirbyDome89]

C'mon....

We had the "too much depth," argument this spring. They just threw a bullpen game because they have 4 starters. It's mid June. Other than Ryan there isn't a single arm listed that you're writing in pen, and he's a coin flip to be here after the ASB. Pablo is coming off TJ, who knows what he'll look like next year, and if he's average or better he's probably getting flipped too. 

Ober is a reinforcement at this point? I don't think Festa, Parades, or Rojas are SPs for different reasons. Zebby and Taj have major consistency issues. Prelipp and Abel are both health and performance question marks. 

"Depth," at least as it's defined by this fan base, is the new "pitch to contact." It's a weird obsession, or something that fans have co-opted. If "depth," is simply names to cycle through, the 2026 Twins might have one of the deepest bullpens of all time....

[Dman]

I think this a good exercise to think about the future.  Personally I think there are two ways this could go.  It feels like Tom Pohlad wants this team to be a winner sooner rather than later so I am not so sure Ryan will be traded.  If not traded the Twins could role out one of the better rotations in their division with Ryan, Lopez, Bradley, Abel and Preilipp.  I think that's a rotation that would give the team a great chance to win every game.  It would be a one year all the chips in move as both Ryan and Lopez would likely get qualifying offers and be gone after 2027. Still if Tom wants to win right away that seems like the best way to do it IMO.

The other way would be to trade Ryan for a close to ready arm and some other assets and move on with Lopez, Bradley, Abel, Preilipp, and Mathews or Rojas.  That's still a good rotation and there is a chance Quick or Gallagher or someone they trade for might be able to be depth by mid 2027.  In this scenario you sell high on Ryan and hopefully come away with good future assets without too much damage being done.  You still lose Lopez at the end of 2027, but hopefully you have arms like Soto and Hill close to ready for 2028.  

I'd also see if they can trade Ober at this years deadline regardless of either scenario.  The velocity is down and I just think they have better options for the 26 man moving forward.  If they can get something decent I'd move him.

I agree Paredes is a pen arm and if Festa can ever come back from the shoulder injury he would be a pen arm.  I think Morris stays in the pen as well.  

I think the Twins will have decent depth when it comes to arms next year and into the future and if they are active at the trade deadline they can add to that depth.  Given that guys like Paredes and Rojas seem like pen arms that can give you some long relief when needed adds to that depth.  

So in conclusion while we have ten arms that could be starters the reality is several of those are likely pen arms or can certainly be used in the pen as the Twins find the best starting five. The few left over provide depth that will be needed. There is no surplus here IMO.