The Twins May Have No Choice But to Slow-Play Their Top Prospects

[Sam Caulder]

Image courtesy of William Parmeter

With the current MLB Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) set to expire on December 1, there’s already a growing sense around the baseball world that the sport could be headed toward another lockout. That doesn't mean games will be lost—an offseason stoppage is almost guaranteed, but last time, they resolved it before Opening Day—but the risk of that is real.

A major reason why? The conversation surrounding a salary cap and salary floor. Right now, Major League Baseball technically has neither, though the players' union does have the right to pursue a grievance against any revenue-sharing receiving teams who don't spend more than a certain threshold, and even though the competitive-balance tax tiers act as progressively harder caps as payrolls get large. Spending across the league remains wildly uneven. Teams like the Dodgers, Yankees, and Mets are operating in an entirely different financial world than smaller-market organizations, while some clubs continue to spend at the absolute bottom of the league with little pressure to increase their payroll. That imbalance has created growing frustration on both sides—despite a relatively weak correlation between spending and actual wins.

Owners are far more likely to push for a salary cap, hoping to create cost certainty that can drive their franchise values even higher. Players, on the other hand, are much more likely to push for a salary floor, forcing lower-spending teams to invest more heavily in their rosters. Obviously, there will be both, if there is either, but whether to switch to such a system (the owners want it; the players don't) and where to set the top and bottom thresholds of one are hard questions on which to agree; hence the tough talk from both sides.

The last MLB lockout began at the start of December 2021 and lasted until March 10, 2022. Ultimately, the league still managed to play a full 162-game season, though Opening Day was pushed back roughly a week while the two sides finalized a new agreement. But there’s no guarantee the next one would be resolved that quickly. There's a possibility that the 2027 lockout could drag on longer, and if that happens, the major-league season would essentially be suspended until a new CBA is agreed upon.

However—and this is where things get especially interesting for teams like the Twins—a major-league lockout would not impact the minors. Minor league baseball would continue as normal. That immediately raises an interesting question for Minnesota, moving forward: might the Twins choose to keep some of their top prospects in the minors, to avoid losing valuable development time during a potential lockout?

Their top-end talent is getting awfully close to the majors. Walker Jenkins, Kaelen Culpepper, and Emmanuel Rodriguez (the Twins’ top three prospects) are all nearing the point where they could realistically debut sometime this summer, health-permitting. Under normal circumstances, getting those players major-league reps during a season where the Twins (still) probably aren’t serious American League contenders would make a ton of sense. Let the young core learn at the highest level, and give them experience heading into a more competitive window down the road.

If Rodríguez can get healthy, it still makes sense to give him a look later this year. He's already on the 40-man roster, so he'll be affected by any lockout, anyway. Only players not on a 40-man MLB roster will be able to participate in minor-league spring training and/or games, if those get started before the big-league ones do next year. Several other could-be rookies—CJ Culpepper, Ty Langenberg, Ricardo Olivar and Aaron Sabato, to name a few—either are already eligible for the Rule 5 Draft or have to be added to the 40-man roster this fall to avoid that, so they also don't need to be held back. Even if a lockout comes, the deadline to add players to the 40-man and protect them from the Rule 5 Draft will come first, in mid-November, so the Twins have to decide on those guys before a work stoppage can enter the equation.

Jenkins, Kaelen Culpepper and pitching prospect Ryan Gallagher, however, belong to the class of players who won't need to be added to the 40-man roster until the fall of 2027 for Rule 5 purposes. If Jenkins could get and stay healthy, he would probably force his way to the majors, anyway, but he's likely to be sidelined several more weeks by the shoulder injury he sustained earlier this season. He, Culpepper and Gallagher are where this gets incredibly tricky for the Twins. Do you prioritize getting your top prospects exposure to the majors now? Or do you protect their ability to continue playing and developing next season in the event of a lengthy lockout?

For Minnesota specifically, there may not be an easy answer. Right now, the state of the infield could force the issue, sooner rather than later. With both Luke Keaschall and Royce Lewis struggling, and with Lewis currently back in the minors, Culpepper may simply become too difficult to keep down. If the Twins believe he’s clearly one of their best infield options, they may not have much choice but to bring him to the majors and worry about any disruptions to his development right along with those to the development of Keaschall, Austin Martin or any other young players. Good stretches from Tristan Gray and Ryan Kreidler or a return to the bigs by a rehabilitated Lewis would make keeping Culpepper down more feasible, which emphasizes the importance of those potential developments, even beyond winning games this year.

The outfield situation, though, is a bit different. With Trevor Larnach and Martin both playing well, the Twins may actually have the flexibility to slow-play some of their outfield prospects throughout the remainder of 2026. Rodríguez's thumb surgery will keep him on the shelf a while, but he could still debut this year. All things considered, it might make sense for Jenkins not to.

It’s honestly an unfortunate situation, all around. You’d love for organizations to simply call players up the moment they’re ready and allow them to develop naturally at the major-league level. But given the very real possibility of a lockout following the 2026 season, along with where the Twins currently sit as a franchise, Minnesota may have to think about this differently than most fans would initially expect. For both the futures of those players and the future of the organization itself, keeping some of their top prospects in the minors for all of 2026 may ultimately be the smartest long-term move.

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[Craig Arko]

So if there is an extended work stoppage next season (which I think likely), what happens with a player like Emma, who will be out of options (probably)? Will he remain in the Twins system until a new CBA is negotiated?

[mnfireman]

9 minutes ago, Craig Arko said:

So if there is an extended work stoppage next season (which I think likely), what happens with a player like Emma, who will be out of options (probably)? Will he remain in the Twins system until a new CBA is negotiated?

Only players not on a 40-man MLB roster will be able to participate in minor-league spring training and/or games, if those get started before the big-league ones do next year. 

[Twins GFP]

I have been shouting for months that the pending strike is delaying the top prospects from seeing MLB this year.

Part of this equation not addressed in the article is potential service time implications. If they call up someone who ends the season on the MLB roster, and next year is lost due to the strike, service time might be grandfathered in.

[Fatbat]

This is a messy issue but shouldn’t winning baseball games with the best players available be the underlying reason to bring guys up and send others down? 

[Vanimal46]

3 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

This is a messy issue but shouldn’t winning baseball games with the best players available be the underlying reason to bring guys up and send others down? 

Other teams must not have received this memo because they're calling up their top prospects this year. 

[djvang]

In 1982 they brought up Hrbek, Gaetti, Bush, Viola, Laudner and traded for Brunansky. And they took their lumps losing 102 games. Turned out good in the long run. 

[Whitey333]

Good article but perhaps a little overblown.  It shouldn't affect the Twins so much as they have a reputation for having prospects linger in the minors.  They should be happy because then their service time clock will be presumably held back.  Walker and Gonzales near ready?  How do we know that?  They are on the injured list as much if not more than playing.

[nicksaviking]

I'd think the players would develop more playing a half season of MLB baseball than they would an extra few weeks of AAA next spring.

But really, there could be any number of unexpected provisions and concessions that could impact the Twins one way or another. Changes in service time or minimum pay. Heck the MLBPA could finally tie in the minor leaguers in an attempt to keep the owners from manipulating them as listed above.

And there's zero chance the Pohlad's are in the inner circle of MLB owners; they likely won't have the fast track to a game plan like the active and powerful owners will have. When the other pro leagues went to revenue sharing with salary caps and floors decades past, those movements where driven by the tenured mid/low market owners. The Pohlad's are the longest tenured ownership family outside of New York and Chicago, and they've forever sat on their hands while they watched their contemporaries in other leagues fight for parity.

I expect them to be sheep here again and figure out how to operate after the other clubs have shown them how to do it.

[Sampson5]

Don't see a world where Culpeper isn't added to the 40 and on the twins in the next few months maybe they do it with jenkins since he's been hurt and his numbers weren't great pre injury so he could probably use more time in St Paul and probably needs to be a opening for him which isn't at the moment 

[Trov]

1 hour ago, Fatbat said:

This is a messy issue but shouldn’t winning baseball games with the best players available be the underlying reason to bring guys up and send others down? 

There is a lot more to it than just that.  Service time, options, 40 man roster rules, waivers, DFA rules all affect how you manage not only the 40 man roster, but the 26 man roster.  Also, development/playing time, and rolls of active players play a part as well. 

For example, Culpepper is not on the 40 man roster.  To add him to it you need to remove someone or put them on the 60 day IL.  If you remove them from 40 man roster, then they get put on waivers for any team to claim them.  If it is not their first time, they can opt to be a FA as well.  This means you lose them.  In some cases, that may not be a big deal, but lets say Twins want to call up Culpepper, and DFA Lewis to make room on 40 man roster for him.  Odds are Lewis would get taken on a waiver claim. 

Maybe losing Lewis on a waiver claim would not be a big deal.  However, it could backfire.  Also, what if Culpepper does terrible?  What if he gets hurt?  Then we need to reach deeper into the system with a possible lessor prospect.  

40 man roster moves should not be done on a whim. They have long lasting affects. 

[mickster]

2 hours ago, djvang said:

In 1982 they brought up Hrbek, Gaetti, Bush, Viola, Laudner and traded for Brunansky. And they took their lumps losing 102 games. Turned out good in the long run. 

We live in a different world with player contracts and union issues and a greater difference between the large and small market teams.   Makes sense to hold prospects back at the moment

[Riverbrian]

I'd be hesitant to add anyone like Jenkins or Culpepper who don't have to be added until December 27. 

I'd be hesitant to waste options or even service time if on the 26 man.

With that said... Put me in the very small group of people who think that there will not be a lock out. Just a lot of threats and tough talk until an agreement comes together.

Both sides should understand the damage done by teaching fans to live without baseball for the summer.  

 

[Heiny]

If there were any common sense in the baseball world,  there wouldn't even be any talk about a lockout.  How long have they known the current CBA would be ending on  Dec. 1st?  How much time have they had to get their butts in the negotiating room?  Why don't they have an agreement settled on long before the current one expires?  JC man,  get together and work it out.  Of course, I'm looking at it from a baseball fans' point of view, which they are not.  They are all money grubbing businesses who care about one thing only.  I'm curious.  How many billions of dollars do the owners need?  And how many millions of dollars do the the players really need?  Minimum pay for players is nearly a million dollars per year.  I made just over a million and a half in my entire 45+ year career and had a very comfortable life and a very comfortable retirement with plenty of luxuries and conveniences.  Please help me understand the greed of both the players and the owners.  I just can't fathom any of it.  If anybody needs more, it would be the minor leaguers.  But who really cares about them?  Ok, rant over.  Get it done before there is a need for a lockout.  No reason that "everybody" can't be happy.  Even the fans.  EVEN ME!!!!!

[Bodie]

How to fix baseball...

Have millionaires claim they are underpaid and fight the billionaires (who wrote the checks that made said millionaires to a man) crying poor.

P!ss off the remaining fans (of whom I'm among the youngest and can collect Social Security), ignore the generations following me who see baseball as something from another era.  And no games for the kids of today to become the fans of tomorrow. 

How could this possibly go wrong???