A Not-Too-Early Breakdown of Minnesota’s Most Interesting Trade Deadline Candidates

[Captain John]

The Twins are playing just like I expected with what they have and new mangement. I wouldn't go crazy making trades unless someone gives you a deal to knock our socks off and I don't trade Ryan at all. If Buxton wants to move on I let him if the return is top notch, he has earned that right. But I think he wants to go in the books as a Twins great and lifer.

[rdehring]

Agree with Major League Ready's comments about how Tampa and others build teams that are competitive year after year.  It would be smart for the Twins to operate like they do.

As far as trading Buxton, a definite NO unless he asks.  Ryan is the other player who could be worth a huge return.  I see the Twins keeping one of Lopez or Ryan beyond the next year.  Expect it will be Lopez.  As for Ryan, talk to his agent about an extension.  If the answer is too expensive or a flat out no, then he goes this July.  The key will be getting a package including a couple very good players who have either broken in with their club or are having success at AAA and ready to join the Twins.  The return for Ryan should not be several prospects from A ball, no matter how highly rated.

Jeffers is another question.  He won't be returning from his injury until a few weeks prior to the deadline.  Odds are good he won't be producing like he was the first two months of the season.  His value this offseason could be limited should he not be the same player following his injury.  Maybe a two-year extension, or three makes the most sense for both Ryan and the Twins.  Hopefully, the Twins can get that done.

The Twins need more players like Austin Martin.  Why would you trade him?  As mentioned by many above, makes sense to move Larnach, if the return is decent.  Same for Bell.

Unless there is a miraculous turn at AAA by either Wallner or Lewis, don't see the Twins getting much in return for either this July.  Should either have a good summer with the Saints and play well in their return to the Twins the last two months, they could have value next winter.  I don't see either getting moved this July but would like to see the Twins get that done in the off-season.

If we want to operate like Tampa or Cleveland, the key will be evaluating who we get back in these trades.  But yes, I see the Twins being active in both July and the winter.  

[JD-TWINS]

3 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Even if they want him back in free agency, they should 1000% trade Ryan Jeffers.

I hate the thought of trading Jeffers just as he’s really started to strive at the plate.

If pitching stays relatively solid there’s an opportunity to trade Joe Ryan for a haul - at a minimum, ONE very solid up & comer that can contribute/start in ‘27. Those Ryan $$ saved could be spent on Jeffers.

Lopez upside for long-term with organization is tough to move on from ……. super high character guy that loves the game …….. figure out a way to extend at least 2 years.

Buxton is a lifer in Minneapolis.

Martin is playing well and very affordable - no trade there.

Lewis & Wallner didn’t really have much trade value after ‘25 season……. it’s gotten FAR worse! Either could resurrect themselves but trading them, while under control, isn’t really a net gain.

If Team spends $20M more in ‘27 after shedding Ryan’s salary, gives Team a definite opportunity to be very competitive in ‘27.

Rotation: Lopez - Bradley - Abel - Ober - Prielipp (Rojas/Matthews)

Pen: Sands - SWR - Festa - Gomez - Morris - Orze & a myriad of possibilities (FA included) for 3-4 spots…… including depth. Lots of time in ‘26 to screen/develop possibilities for ‘27.

Need a Catcher!!! …….that would pair with Caratini (he’s under contract)……..almost threw up watching Jackson on Friday night.

OF/DH ….. Larnach/Martin - Buxton - Gonzalez - Rodriguez - Jenkins.

IF ….. Lee - Culpepper - Keaschall ……… fill void at 1B in FA ……. or with a much better hitting Lewis

Supplementing this offensive group and the PEN, with Ryan’s freed up $15M + $20M ownership increase (to a mere $125M total) seems they could be extremely competitive.

Also, the trade acquisition in any Ryan trade should contribute in ‘27. Can they trade for a proven young Catcher for Joe?

[bean5302]

I'm not sure what talent people are talking about. Trade value for virtually all our guys is suspect.

BBTV has paywalled their site down so hard I no longer use it at all, but I'd say Buxton is probably about a +30 value at this point.

Joe Ryan's value is highly questionable at this point due to Skubal's Arb3 ruling. Ryan is probably in line for a $20MM pay day through arbitration if he remains healthy. As a 3 WAR kind of pitcher, maybe 4 WAR for a desperate partner, his surplus value would be hamstrung quite a bit. Maybe +25 at this point? Not trading him last year was the biggest mistake this front office has ever made, IMHO.

Ober's tough to gauge. I don't think his results will continue as the league adjusts to his new methodology. 

Ryan Jeffers may be worth more because of his injury TBH. Keeping up that outstanding wRC+ 166 production line would be unbelievable given his one outlier season capped at wRC+ 136 and his career wRC+ 112. Jeffers is looking like a totally transformed hitter at this point in his age 29 season, and teams may be willing to bite on that. The hamate bone surgery has about a 100% success rate so I think teams will be all aboard. Still, he's a rental, and if traded this year, he's ineligible for a QO. His value is going to be fairly limited.

Josh Bell is a DFA / release candidate. Not a trade candidate. He's at -0.4 fWAR right now. 

[Patzky]

1 hour ago, SteveLV said:

I see no logical reason NOT to trade Jeffers if he comes back strong and can garner a nice return. He is gonzo after the end of the year.  What difference does it make if he plays an extra couple months here?

Ryan, either sign him to an extension (highly, highly unlikely) or trade him.  He should have tremendous value to a deep pockets team that can sign him to an extension.  I would love to see Twins re-sign him, but it is never going to happen so move him for a haul.

Larnach, Bell, Rogers--all rentals and if you get something enticing, sure.

Buston. Whoo-boy, you better be careful here.  He is having a terrific season and is on a BARGAIN contract.  If the Brinks truck backs up, take a look inside.  Teams like the Yankees and Dodgers would love him, and it sure would be fun to watch Byron play some post-season baseball.

See no reason to move controllable players like Martin.

Ober, I would listen.

Going to be an very interesting trade deadline in all likelihood.

Interesting deal deadline is good. Fire sale was bad at the time but gives us the option to be creative this time around. We wouldn't talk about trading so easily if we didn't have guys like Abel, Tait, Gabby, Taj, in our back pockets. Loss of Jeffers seems imminent.. He'd me missed but an immediate replacement isn't needed and we have young catchers up and coming.

Wish there was more clarity about a labor stoppage on 2027..

[Patzky]

12 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

I hate the thought of trading Jeffers just as he’s really started to strive at the plate.

If pitching stays relatively solid there’s an opportunity to trade Joe Ryan for a haul - at a minimum, ONE very solid up & comer that can contribute/start in ‘27. Those Ryan $$ saved could be spent on Jeffers.

Lopez upside for long-term with organization is tough to move on from ……. super high character guy that loves the game …….. figure out a way to extend at least 2 years.

Buxton is a lifer in Minneapolis.

Martin is playing well and very affordable - no trade there.

Lewis & Wallner didn’t really have much trade value after ‘25 season……. it’s gotten FAR worse! Either could resurrect themselves but trading them, while under control, isn’t really a net gain.

If Team spends $20M more in ‘27 after shedding Ryan’s salary, gives Team a definite opportunity to be very competitive in ‘27.

Rotation: Lopez - Bradley - Abel - Ober - Prielipp (Rojas/Matthews)

Pen: Sands - SWR - Festa - Gomez - Morris - Orze & a myriad of possibilities (FA included) for 3-4 spots…… including depth. Lots of time in ‘26 to screen/develop possibilities for ‘27.

Need a Catcher!!! …….that would pair with Caratini (he’s under contract)……..almost threw up watching Jackson on Friday night.

OF/DH ….. Larnach/Martin - Buxton - Gonzalez - Rodriguez - Jenkins.

IF ….. Lee - Culpepper - Keaschall ……… fill void at 1B in FA ……. or with a much better hitting Lewis

Supplementing this offensive group and the PEN, with Ryan’s freed up $15M + $20M ownership increase (to a mere $125M total) seems they could be extremely competitive.

Also, the trade acquisition in any Ryan trade should contribute in ‘27. Can they trade for a proven young Catcher for Joe?

Just like the Correa savings.. is there anything forcing the team to reinvest any savings from Ryan (reality isn't any until 2028);or Jeffers? I wish the answer was a clear yes.

[krink]

I firmly believe letting Buxton go would be a slap in the face. If he wants to leave, that's one thing, but if he's willing to stay then keep him. Not apples to apples, but in my mind it would be like when they let Rod Carew go to the Angels. Buxton is Twins Baseball to so many fans, whether serious or casual.

Ryan while good, I don't the loss would break the team. Since Lopez should be back next year, and with quite a few promising younger faces in the starting lineup (Bradley, Abel, Prielipp), Ryan has enough value to make it worth considering. I'd hope we would keep Ober - considering what he could do to the Marlins even with a diminished velocity, I think he can still pack a punch.

To me, Jeffers is the obvious goodbye. Is he an amazing catcher? Yes. Does he add some serious value to the team both offensively and defensively? Duh. As much as it hurts to say, that's the problem. He's probably too good for where the Twins are right now. He has the skills to be on a World Series team, and that's not something that I think will happen for us.

Bell is one that I think should be seriously considered. If we can get something good for him, let him go. As fun as our "For Whom The Bell Tolls" rallying cry is, we could trade him out for pretty much any streaky first basemen with similar results. And I think a younger model would come with some pluses.

Martin is one we need to try and keep. While he's been struggling recently (minus last night's GLORIOUS home run!), when he's hot he's HOT. I'd rather keep the almost guaranteed single/double in the lineup.

I don't know how much value Lee has for trade, and I think it's too early in the season for me to say anything concretely. He's pretty solid infielding, but yes, the batting is streaky at best. I don't know how much value he has, but if no one is willing to snap him up, I don't think keeping him is going to kill our chance of competing.

Larnach seems like another obvious one for me, especially since he's doing better. As another comment mentioned, we have young guys that we could bring up to take his spot, and I think we should jump on that.

The Twins have always been a farm club, let's see what that crop can yield!

[tony&rodney]

The only way a discussion of trading Byron Buxton makes any sense is if Buck would like to play for another team. That seems to have been addressed repeatedly as a "No" and Byron has full say in his employment with both a NTC and 10 & 5 rights. 

Joe Ryan may have considerable interest from many teams but which team is willing to give up a top prospect or a bundle that makes sense? When one looks around the league, the number of teams with the types of prospects worth acquiring on teams that may be willing to add Ryan are slim. Teams like St. Louis, West Sacramento, and others are doing well but may be reluctant to give up the needed prospects. Teams like Tampa Bay and Milwaukee are hesitant to trade top prospects and their starters are doing well. A pile of teams would like Joe Ryan but their prospects are less appealing than already exists within the Twins organization. Perhaps the Chicago Cubs are the best match. The Twins would need to get a pile of players though and I'm not sure more than Pedro Ramirez are worth the gamble. San Francisco seems like a destination long term for Ryan but their system is thin. So it is hold and listen for now and most likely this rolls into October and November. 

The CBA was a big concern last winter. Attendance is pretty good around MLB, not in Minnesota. My guess is things are resolved because any lock out would cost owners real money. 

In sum, as stated earlier, it is too early. There is no future in regretting that nothing was done last winter. We all pretty much agree the club bungled some potential chances. We also cannot predict injuries and need to relax about that ongoing problem. Look at Houston or Detroit for concerns with injuries.

 

[tony&rodney]

16 minutes ago, krink said:

Not apples to apples, but in my mind it would be like when they let Rod Carew go to the Angels.

The Twins were basically broke when they traded Rod Carew. This is actually true. The Griffiths were hanging on and cutting costs. These were not people living rich. Carew deserved to be paid more and had to get traded in order to get paid. Carew's comments on all of this are a matter of record. Still, it was a sad day for Twins fans. Reality intervened.

The Pohlads have Buxton under contract and it is a good deal; he stays unless he demands a trade. Iagree the Twins need to get better WITH Buck on the team. Ryan can be traded for the right return. The Pohlads are negotiating their investment more carefully than we have seen in a while. Ryan could stay too.

[LewFordLives]

Way too early.

As a wise man once said..."Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?"

Seriously, they are only a half game out of a wild card spot. If they could add some relief help at the deadline it would really make people take this team more seriously. Still gotta play better defense.

[RpR]

2 minutes ago, LewFordLives said:

Way too early.

As a wise man once said..."Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?"

Seriously, they are only a half game out of a wild card spot. If they could add some relief help at the deadline it would really make people take this team more seriously. Still gotta play better defense.

Bravo!

[Sampson5]

Unless they plan on giving jeffers the qo there's no way they can keep him because they aren't paying a catcher 12+ million when they already have caratini making 7 . He will have a good market assuming he returns and plays solid before the deadline . They should also be listening on Ryan unless they wanna pay him because the return will be worse next year . The martin trade makes zero sense tbh as for Buxton you keep him until he asks out which feels doubtful to happen unless the twins turn into the rockies . I'd wait on the demoted duo see if they can turn it around enough so you at least can get some type of value 

[Wedman13]

3 hours ago, Patzky said:

Just like the Correa savings.. is there anything forcing the team to reinvest any savings from Ryan (reality isn't any until 2028);or Jeffers? I wish the answer was a clear yes.

Nor should they try to replace Ryan, build a bullpen, get a catcher and a first baseman for $20m - and think they are a title contender.   We will have a team full of Josh Bell's, grays',  clemen's, and the list goes on..  get more talent in the 21-25 year old range, let them grow, and hope your scouting was solid.  2-3 years you may have something.  Rolling it ba k year after year hasn't/didn't work, even with Buck 

[Linus]

Agree that it is too early. I think it’s a small chance they grab a wildcard but let’s at least give it our best until the deadline. I think people need to be real about expected returns. Buck, Ryan, and Jeffers are the trade chips that will return something (I’m not including our young starters).  The rest of those guys are either untradeable or will net some A ball lottery ticket. 

[IndianaTwin]

Too early. 

But at least enjoyable to speculate on right now. 

Buxton -- No. PR disaster to trade. And the team isn't THAT far away.

Ryan -- No. Not sure Lopez will be ready to start next year. Add him in late May like the Yankees have done with Cole and Ryan, Lopez, Ober, Bradley, Abel, Prielipp could be one of the elite rotations in baseball. Too many starters is never an extended problem. 

Jeffers -- I get the thought of trading him, but catcher consistency goes a long way in pitcher development. Playoff-caliber teams tend to have their catcher situation resolved (unless there's a midyear injury). Will they get that much more at the deadline than they will get with a QO at the end of year? I'm not sure they will. Consider, but only for something significant, and treat keeping him as an investment in the continued development of the pitching staff. 

Bell -- Sure, though I don't know that you'll get much. 

Martin -- No at this point. Why create a hole that you don't need to? If the prospects keep pounding down the door, one of them will be tradeable in the offseason. If they don't, you'll be glad you kept Martin.

Lewis -- Definitely too early. Not sure you'll get much at this point. I keep rolling the dice that he will rebound. For what it's worth, he's the same age as Martin, who many of us wanted to dump at this time last year. People don't trade for projects midyear. Someone might in the offseason.

Wallner -- Not sure you'll get much, but sure. Generally though, I keep rolling the dice on his return. If he bounces back, he's worth more in the offseason than now. If he doesn't, non-tendering him in the offseason is likely an easy call. 

Rogers -- I'd go the other way. If he's pitching well enough to generate a return and his veteran presence is worth something, dangle another $2M in front of him and extend him to '27.

Larnach -- I'm not sold on retaining him given his bounceback year, but aside from Bell, he's probably the one on this list I'm most willing to move. A team can want a bat, and you're probably selling high on him at this point. 

Outman -- I'm not nearly as down on him as TD, but with his recent better hitting, he's perhaps improved his stock from last year at this time. If you can get more than Stewart for him, sure. 

 

But mostly sit back and endure the wrath of TD for doing very little, as you continue to sift and sort through the options for 2027.

 

 

[bean5302]

Way too much emphasis being placed on Buxton's remaining 2 months of full no trade clause. I believe he will 100% waive it to go to a team he likes if he thinks the Twins are going to rebuild. Starting 11/1/2026, Buxton no longer has a full NTC. He has to submit a list of 5 teams to which he could be traded with no approval necessary.

Also, while fans on this site love Buxton, he's a very polarizing players across the whole of Twins territory. His long injury history combined with the big contract mean he's also disliked by a lot of people.

It's worth noting history suggests fans will just find a new favorite player after their favorite guy is traded, retires or leaves for free agency. While it's not the popular opinion, it's one supported by attendance over and over again. Fans attend games and spend money for the team and the overall opinion of the franchise direction, not the name on the jersey.

Attendance went UP after Kirby Puckett retired.
Attendance went UP after Joe Mauer retired.
Attendance went UP after BOTH Torii Hunter left and Johan Santana was traded.

The Twins' problems aren't impacted by moving Buxton or Ryan or anybody else they could move on this team. It's a bottom of the barrel fan experience right now. The Pohlads have misread the situation. Fans hate them and aren't even willing to give them a chance at this point, and I don't think even if they boosted spending to $150MM+ that fans would buy in for them. I don't see how the Pohlads can win fans back. A new owner instantly changes a lot, but they'll have to spend to get fans on board expecting a new experience.

 

[Linus]

18 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Way too much emphasis being placed on Buxton's remaining 2 months of full no trade clause. I believe he will 100% waive it to go to a team he likes if he thinks the Twins are going to rebuild. Starting 11/1/2026, Buxton no longer has a full NTC. He has to submit a list of 5 teams to which he could be traded with no approval necessary.

Also, while fans on this site love Buxton, he's a very polarizing players across the whole of Twins territory. His long injury history combined with the big contract mean he's also disliked by a lot of people.

It's worth noting history suggests fans will just find a new favorite player after their favorite guy is traded, retires or leaves for free agency. While it's not the popular opinion, it's one supported by attendance over and over again. Fans attend games and spend money for the team and the overall opinion of the franchise direction, not the name on the jersey.

Attendance went UP after Kirby Puckett retired.
Attendance went UP after Joe Mauer retired.
Attendance went UP after BOTH Torii Hunter left and Johan Santana was traded.

The Twins' problems aren't impacted by moving Buxton or Ryan or anybody else they could move on this team. It's a bottom of the barrel fan experience right now. The Pohlads have misread the situation. Fans hate them and aren't even willing to give them a chance at this point, and I don't think even if they boosted spending to $150MM+ that fans would buy in for them. I don't see how the Pohlads can win fans back. A new owner instantly changes a lot, but they'll have to spend to get fans on board expecting a new experience.

 

Buck now has 10 and 5 rights so he can veto any trade (I believe don’t know if there is fine print with that rule). 

[tony&rodney]

6 minutes ago, Linus said:

Buck now has 10 and 5 rights so he can veto any trade (I believe don’t know if there is fine print with that rule). 

Anyone who has curiosity about the rule can read it. !0 & 5 rights is ironclad decision for player's right to veto any trade. The clause previously in his contract was there for a situation whereby Buck did not get to 10 & 5 before contract was up.

While Buxton could demand a trade/accept a trade, I'm not sure any recent player has been more vocal about remaining in the only organization they have known.

[Wedman13]

3 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

The Twins were basically broke when they traded Rod Carew. This is actually true. The Griffiths were hanging on and cutting costs. These were not people living rich. Carew deserved to be paid more and had to get traded in order to get paid. Carew's comments on all of this are a matter of record. Still, it was a sad day for Twins fans. Reality intervened.

The Pohlads have Buxton under contract and it is a good deal; he stays unless he demands a trade. Iagree the Twins need to get better WITH Buck on the team. Ryan can be traded for the right return. The Pohlads are negotiating their investment more carefully than we have seen in a while. Ryan could stay too.

Spot on.  Carew is on record saying if he wasn't traded he would sign elsewhere.

Gene Autry was buying everyone then so rightfully, Rod chased the $.  What Autry could not buy was a championship.

[Glorybound]

It would be front office malpractice to not trade both Jeffers and Ryan prior to the trade deadline. This team as it is will not make the playoffs.  Trading Ober should also be considered since we are trying to save money.