Taking Stock of the AL Central: Can Chicago Keep This Up? Do the Tigers Still Have Time?

With the Twins hanging tough in the AL Central, let’s take a look at the rest of the competition in the division. What are we up against?

Chicago White Sox
Currently: Holding onto a slim lead in the division.
DiamondCentric Power Ranking: 13th 
How they got here: Uh … divine intervention via the new Pope? 
Hurdle they need to clear: Winning on the road.

Do they have the juice? Teams coming out of nowhere is a regular occurrence in the AL Central. Chicago has a common feature those surprise clubs typically have: Youth. It’s a dangerous thing when a young team comes together and starts to believe. Can that momentum carry them through these next 70 or so games?

I’m sure White Sox fans are tired of hearing this, but I don’t think so.

There are a number of things to point to, but what stands out to me is their home and road splits. This might be low-hanging fruit analysis, but I do think it’s as simple as this: if you can’t win on the road, you’re not going to last.

The White Sox are 19-28 on the road. There have been division champs that posted losing road records, but they’re always within a game or two of .500. Last season, the Blue Jays (40-41) and Mariners (39-42) did it. Other recent examples are the 2023 Twins (40-41), 2022 Cardinals (40-41) and 2021 White Sox (40-41). Chicago would have to get hot on the road from here to reach even that modest level.

Cleveland Guardians
Currently: Right on Chicago’s heels.
DiamondCentric Power Ranking: 17th
How they got here: As always, Cleveland devil magic.
Hurdle they need to clear: As always, scoring runs.

Alright, so maybe there’s more to them than just the patented devil magic. The pitching staff and defense are both top-10 units. Parker Messick and Joey Cantillo are the most recent of the solid starting pitchers Cleveland seems to be able to clone at will. 

José Ramírez is recovering from a broken hamate bone—the same injury Ryan Jeffers is working his way back from. Cleveland has gone 8-11 without their star and 13-17 over their last 30 games. Rookies Chase DeLauter and Travis Bazzana are picking up the slack, and Brayan Rocchio is breaking out, but this lineup is still dreadful. The Guardians rank near the bottom in virtually every hitting metric, including 29th in OPS and 27th in wOBA. 

The scariest thing about this team is ghosts of the past. I’ll probably always tense up anytime the Twins play them. Speaking of which, these teams start a series tonight, and the Twins play seven of their 22 games between now and the trade deadline against Cleveland. Oh yay.

Detroit Tigers
Currently: Among the most disappointing teams in baseball.
DiamondCentric Power Ranking: 10th
How they got here: Injuries, but their lineup has also faded and their defense has been poor.
Hurdle they need to clear: Time. It’s not dark yet, but it’s getting there.

These Tigers aren’t dead yet. Their 40-50 record is ugly, but we’ve seen this movie before. In fact, it was in theaters just two seasons ago. Back in 2024, Detroit was 42-48 through this point in the season. They caught fire, managed to win 86 games, and snuck into the postseason. It could happen again.

Their fate may come down to one player: Tarik Skubal. Is he going to remain a Tiger? He’s a pending free agent, and Detroit’s front office will be able to ask for the world in return for him. Detroit’s rotation has been solid even without Skubal for a good chunk of the season, so perhaps removing the back-to-back Cy Young winner wouldn’t be a finishing blow. Would they still have the best rotation in the division without him? It’s at least up for debate, though they’d likely sell off additional pieces if they were to trade Skubal.

The Tigers also have a star rookie and a couple of the most underrated players in baseball. Kevin McGonigle has been incredible. He’s putting together an MVP-caliber season, and should easily capture the Rookie of the Year. Riley Greene continues to be overlooked among middle-of-the-order bats, and Dillon Dingler has grown from being just a guy whose name makes you giggle to the best catcher in baseball.

The strangest thing about the Tigers is that they’re being tamed by teams they should maim. Detroit has the worst record in baseball against teams with a .500 record or worse at 16-29, while posting a 24-21 record against teams with a .500 record or better. Huh?

This looked like the year they were primed to go for it, but perhaps this is really who they are, and 2026 was just not meant to be. I still wouldn’t count them out.

Kansas City Royals
Currently: In the basement and among the worst records in the league.
DiamondCentric Power Ranking: 28th
How they got here: They’ve also dealt with unfortunate injuries, and their pitching is a mess.
Hurdle they need to clear: They’re actually facing more of an unscalable mountain than a hurdle.

Not much to say about KC. It’s been a cursed season for them. It happens.

So, how do you see the division shaping out? The looming August 3 trade deadline has the potential to greatly influence this race, but should the Twins be among the buyers? Or is the competition thick enough that they should set their sights on 2027?