Taking Stock of the AL Central: Can Chicago Keep This Up? Do the Tigers Still Have Time?

[Tom Froemming]

Image courtesy of © David Richard-Imagn Images

With the Twins hanging tough in the AL Central, let’s take a look at the rest of the competition in the division. What are we up against?

Chicago White Sox
Currently: Holding onto a slim lead in the division.
DiamondCentric Power Ranking: 13th 
How they got here: Uh … divine intervention via the new Pope? 
Hurdle they need to clear: Winning on the road.

Do they have the juice? Teams coming out of nowhere is a regular occurrence in the AL Central. Chicago has a common feature those surprise clubs typically have: Youth. It’s a dangerous thing when a young team comes together and starts to believe. Can that momentum carry them through these next 70 or so games?

I’m sure White Sox fans are tired of hearing this, but I don’t think so.

There are a number of things to point to, but what stands out to me is their home and road splits. This might be low-hanging fruit analysis, but I do think it’s as simple as this: if you can’t win on the road, you’re not going to last.

The White Sox are 19-28 on the road. There have been division champs that posted losing road records, but they’re always within a game or two of .500. Last season, the Blue Jays (40-41) and Mariners (39-42) did it. Other recent examples are the 2023 Twins (40-41), 2022 Cardinals (40-41) and 2021 White Sox (40-41). Chicago would have to get hot on the road from here to reach even that modest level.

Cleveland Guardians
Currently: Right on Chicago’s heels.
DiamondCentric Power Ranking: 17th
How they got here: As always, Cleveland devil magic.
Hurdle they need to clear: As always, scoring runs.

Alright, so maybe there’s more to them than just the patented devil magic. The pitching staff and defense are both top-10 units. Parker Messick and Joey Cantillo are the most recent of the solid starting pitchers Cleveland seems to be able to clone at will. 

José Ramírez is recovering from a broken hamate bone—the same injury Ryan Jeffers is working his way back from. Cleveland has gone 8-11 without their star and 13-17 over their last 30 games. Rookies Chase DeLauter and Travis Bazzana are picking up the slack, and Brayan Rocchio is breaking out, but this lineup is still dreadful. The Guardians rank near the bottom in virtually every hitting metric, including 29th in OPS and 27th in wOBA. 

The scariest thing about this team is ghosts of the past. I’ll probably always tense up anytime the Twins play them. Speaking of which, these teams start a series tonight, and the Twins play seven of their 22 games between now and the trade deadline against Cleveland. Oh yay.

Detroit Tigers
Currently: Among the most disappointing teams in baseball.
DiamondCentric Power Ranking: 10th
How they got here: Injuries, but their lineup has also faded and their defense has been poor.
Hurdle they need to clear: Time. It’s not dark yet, but it’s getting there.

These Tigers aren’t dead yet. Their 40-50 record is ugly, but we’ve seen this movie before. In fact, it was in theaters just two seasons ago. Back in 2024, Detroit was 42-48 through this point in the season. They caught fire, managed to win 86 games, and snuck into the postseason. It could happen again.

Their fate may come down to one player: Tarik Skubal. Is he going to remain a Tiger? He’s a pending free agent, and Detroit’s front office will be able to ask for the world in return for him. Detroit’s rotation has been solid even without Skubal for a good chunk of the season, so perhaps removing the back-to-back Cy Young winner wouldn’t be a finishing blow. Would they still have the best rotation in the division without him? It’s at least up for debate, though they’d likely sell off additional pieces if they were to trade Skubal.

The Tigers also have a star rookie and a couple of the most underrated players in baseball. Kevin McGonigle has been incredible. He’s putting together an MVP-caliber season, and should easily capture the Rookie of the Year. Riley Greene continues to be overlooked among middle-of-the-order bats, and Dillon Dingler has grown from being just a guy whose name makes you giggle to the best catcher in baseball.

The strangest thing about the Tigers is that they’re being tamed by teams they should maim. Detroit has the worst record in baseball against teams with a .500 record or worse at 16-29, while posting a 24-21 record against teams with a .500 record or better. Huh?

This looked like the year they were primed to go for it, but perhaps this is really who they are, and 2026 was just not meant to be. I still wouldn’t count them out.

Kansas City Royals
Currently: In the basement and among the worst records in the league.
DiamondCentric Power Ranking: 28th
How they got here: They’ve also dealt with unfortunate injuries, and their pitching is a mess.
Hurdle they need to clear: They’re actually facing more of an unscalable mountain than a hurdle.

Not much to say about KC. It’s been a cursed season for them. It happens.

So, how do you see the division shaping out? The looming August 3 trade deadline has the potential to greatly influence this race, but should the Twins be among the buyers? Or is the competition thick enough that they should set their sights on 2027?

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[Brandon]

They should trade for a reliever now.  THey can still sell at the deadline if they fall far enough back.  not sure they will after winning 4 of 6 in the last 2 series.  Anything can happen and Buxton being on the DL isnt helping.

[Cris E]

Consider the notion that there are three types of trade candidates: top shelf, prospects, and everyone else.  How you view the current roster and season will dictate how you manage those three groups. 

I think the AL Central is a dumpster fire that could be won by just about anyone, I think we have more middling vets than we need, we have more kids to evaluate than spots, and I think some of those vets are not crucial to winning. I think a little development among the youth could make huge gains in the bullpen by displacing the worst of the innings being thrown out there, and i think we've finally started taking strides towards improving our defense.   

So right now, as in before bedtime tonight, I start calling to move some middling vets.  Larnach is useful to many teams. Clemens has been good for us but could also be for someone else. Any of our utility guys should be marked down. Ober, Rogers, most of our second shelf pitchers in fact, should be on the block. In return we need pitching for the short term and talent for the longer term.

Then promote kids and see how things shake out in the next three weeks. If we are still in it we listen to offers or even fill a hole or two.  If we continue to sit in the mud we sell more. Leave it in the players' hands. Ownership screwed them last year, but a judicious trimming with several weeks to make their case could be good motivation.

[Dman]

Chicago is a young team and we've seen those types of teams fall off later in the season.  Still I think that with the AL so weak they might be able to pull it off.  If they get a little deadline help that could change things for them as well. despite your incredible stat I still think they can beat the odds and be a playoff team.

Cleveland pitching has carried them to many division titles.   I'd say the smart money is on them to win the division.  They have been beatable without their big bat and it will be interesting to see how they line up against the Twins for those 7 games as that will likely make or break the Twins season.

I just don't think Detroit has the pitching to go on that run you speak of.  If they trade Skubal it feels like it's over for them.  It's still a potent lineup when they are on and we've seen what timely hitting can do with this Twins team.  Never say never given their comeback ways, but if they are sellers I don't see it.

KC is generally a tough team.  Always in it.  Very pesky, but they have lost their mojo this year.  Not enough offense and the pitching hasn't been great either. They might challenge for worst record in baseball if they sell at the deadline.

If the Twins can pull to .500 or close to it.  I still like their odds at a playoff spot if they don't sell off Joe Ryan.  I don't know if this offense can keep it up and if the pen can get better, but if they can, there's no reason they can't find their way to a wild card spot.  July is going to be big and August will be a real tough part of their schedule with Seattle, Brewers, Phillies, Chicago, and Atlanta on the schedule.  Not sure I see them getting through that and staying around .500, but we'll see.

[weitz41]

The central is set to have another team come out of nowhere and win the division. Could it be the Twins? could it be the Tigers? The Sox and Guardians will be there at the end. The Royals just can't seem to find enough offense to go on a run this season. We're talking like 85 wins will take it, maybe less. It's ugly, no fan base for a central team is thinking we could win the WS. But everyone's record at the start of the playoff's is 0-0.

[mikelink45]

sorry - I am still laughing - the white sox can't keep this up (why) the Twins can surge to the top (why?) and Detroit can't make a run - WHY??????????? and of course the Guardians will faulter down the stretch because???????????