A Not-Too-Early Breakdown of Minnesota’s Most Interesting Trade Deadline Candidates

[IndianaTwin]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

I can’t see them offering Jeffers a qualifying offer. That’s a $23M deal which would make him the highest paid catcher in baseball. He would absolutely accept.

That was my previous thought as well, but he’d be taking a significant chance. With this season’s success he’d be looking at a pretty good contract and there’s such an injury risk.

Think of the contract Raleigh would have gotten last winter as a 28 year old compared to what he would get this year as a 29 year old. He would have cost himself more than the QO. I recognize he was coming off a historic year, but the ages and concept are the same. If Jeffers thinks something like 4/$72M is legit, he has to be confident he’s still going to get 3/$49M the next year if he takes the QO.

This also fits in the “too early” category and my comment is based on his coming back healthy and finishing well. Even then, I don’t think it’s clear-cut that he gets offered, but I also don’t think it’s clear cut he takes it. 

We yell “Cheap Pohlad,” but it was a Pohlad that offered Mauer a contract. If Tom wants to communicate a willingness to spend, this is his first real opportunity to do so.

[Major League Ready]

21 hours ago, bean5302 said:

I'm not sure what talent people are talking about. Trade value for virtually all our guys is suspect.

BBTV has paywalled their site down so hard I no longer use it at all, but I'd say Buxton is probably about a +30 value at this point.

Joe Ryan's value is highly questionable at this point due to Skubal's Arb3 ruling. Ryan is probably in line for a $20MM pay day through arbitration if he remains healthy. As a 3 WAR kind of pitcher, maybe 4 WAR for a desperate partner, his surplus value would be hamstrung quite a bit. Maybe +25 at this point? Not trading him last year was the biggest mistake this front office has ever made, IMHO.

Ober's tough to gauge. I don't think his results will continue as the league adjusts to his new methodology. 

Ryan Jeffers may be worth more because of his injury TBH. Keeping up that outstanding wRC+ 166 production line would be unbelievable given his one outlier season capped at wRC+ 136 and his career wRC+ 112. Jeffers is looking like a totally transformed hitter at this point in his age 29 season, and teams may be willing to bite on that. The hamate bone surgery has about a 100% success rate so I think teams will be all aboard. Still, he's a rental, and if traded this year, he's ineligible for a QO. His value is going to be fairly limited.

Josh Bell is a DFA / release candidate. Not a trade candidate. He's at -0.4 fWAR right now. 

I would question how much Skubal's Arb 3 ruling impacts Ryan.  Skubal's bWAR for the last 2 years is 13.2.  Ryan's is 7/1.  Skubal is the next level up and that level often decides playoff games. Dylan Cease got $13.75 in his Arb 3 season and his performance has tracked a fair amount higher than Ryan.  If Ryan continues to perform close to his current level he might get close to Cease money.  Just an opinion of course.

[TopGunn#22]

It is NOT too early to be discussing this.  Reality Check:  The Twins are a bad baseball team with serious roster holes.  We are a half game out of a Wildcard spot by playing in the worst division in baseball.  We'd get destroyed in said Wildcard game.  Reality says we need to be aggressive and smart in dealing for young talent to retrofit this roster.  There were a couple of players NOT mentioned in the article who should be included.

1.   Buxton-He's 32 and now has 10 and 5 rights.  I do not trade him unless he requests it.  There would be teams, with the Braves at the top of the list, who could and probably would provide a handsome return.  But he's the face of the franchise and deserves the chance to be a one-team player,  It's got to be Buxton's choice.

2.   Ryan-After the injury scare, the loss of Lopez for the season, the near deal with Boston last year and with the emergence of Bradley, Abel, Prielipp and hopefully Matthews, it's time to cash in on Joe Ryan.  He will start getting more and more expensive and he will bring a solid package back.

3.   Jeffers-The injury is disappointing, but further points to the need to move him.  he should have been traded a month ago.  With Boras as his agent, he's never signing an extension.  He's having his best season ever.  Smart FO's see this opportunity and move on it.  We have Caratini.  We have some emerging catching talent in the minors and the chance to draft the top catcher with the 3rd overall pick.  Find the team willing to give up some real talent and make the deal.

4.   Josh Bell is a release candidate.  Trade him for anything you can get.

5.   Ober-His season to date offers a tremendous chance to maximize the return.  While Ryan could be a All Star caliber #2 on a contending team, Ober is an intriguing #4 or #5.  I'd trade him right now to open up spots for younger pitchers.  From this point forward, his value can only decrease.

6.   Lewis and Wallner-Lewis is still just 26 years old.  Wallner is 28.  Each has flashed a tantalizing future only to look so lost it's maddening.  There are younger players who are making them less and less of a Twins future.  EVERY TEAM in MLB has players just like Lewis and Wallner.  It's time for the Twins to move on and take a chance on getting a Shane Mack type back in return who thrives on a change in scenery.  

7.   Larnach-He's having his best season at age 29.  But I'd move on with the young OF we have coming up.  I wouldn't give him away, but somebody may give up a nice piece if Larnach would be a good fit for them.  

8.   SWR-There are younger players who have far greater upside than SWR.  If the Twins move him to the BP and he does well I'm hanging on to him as a 25 year old.  He's got no spot in a future Twins rotation, but has a chance to be a decent BP pitcher.  

With a labor stoppage sure to affect at least SOME of 2027 and the hopes that the Pohlad's will finally sell this off season the tear-down should continue with enthusiasm.  The Twins are NOT a contender this year.  Trade the guys who no longer have a place on a 2027 roster, get the team in a good sale position and build for 2028 & 2029 with young players.  It's 1981 all over again.  

 

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

I would question how much Skubal's Arb 3 ruling impacts Ryan.  Skubal's bWAR for the last 2 years is 13.2.  Ryan's is 7/1.  Skubal is the next level up and that level often decides playoff games. Dylan Cease got $13.75 in his Arb 3 season and his performance has tracked a fair amount higher than Ryan.  If Ryan continues to perform close to his current level he might get close to Cease money.  Just an opinion of course.

I can't agree with your take at all. Skubal's ruling showed the following.
1. Player performance in Arb2 season directly correlates with Arb3 salary.
2. What the player is currently making is irrelevant.

The CBA had the provision that free agency value is supposed to be considered in the final year of arbitration. Arbiters proved they cared about free agency value, and not the salary the player was earning. The Tigers submitted a $19MM figure for Skubal, which was a $9MM jump and nearly double what he was previously making. Huge increases already.

It's about the precedent in the contract negotiation. There's no way arbiters can make a ruling like they did with Skubal and say it only applies to the best pitcher in the game. Only 1 player in the game gets to follow this new precedent.

This precedent will even be used for Trevor Larnach. It changes everything.

[Major League Ready]

6 hours ago, bean5302 said:

I can't agree with your take at all. Skubal's ruling showed the following.
1. Player performance in Arb2 season directly correlates with Arb3 salary.
2. What the player is currently making is irrelevant.

The CBA had the provision that free agency value is supposed to be considered in the final year of arbitration. Arbiters proved they cared about free agency value, and not the salary the player was earning. The Tigers submitted a $19MM figure for Skubal, which was a $9MM jump and nearly double what he was previously making. Huge increases already.

It's about the precedent in the contract negotiation. There's no way arbiters can make a ruling like they did with Skubal and say it only applies to the best pitcher in the game. Only 1 player in the game gets to follow this new precedent.

This precedent will even be used for Trevor Larnach. It changes everything.

You might be right.  I will take note and we will see what happens next fall/winter.