Twins 7, Blue Jays 1: Bailey Ober, Man. He Just Keeps Living.

[Sam Caulder]

Image courtesy of © Matt Blewett-Imagn Images

Box Score
SP: Bailey Ober - 6 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 2 K (88 pitches, 56 strikes (64% strikes))
Home Runs: Ryan Jeffers (4), Byron Buxton (8)
Top 3 WPA: Bailey Ober (0.19), Byron Buxton (0.16), Ryan Jeffers (0.16)
Win Probability Chart

The Twins came into the series opener against Toronto looking to stop the bleeding, after a pair of frustrating late losses to the Seattle Mariners. Behind a sharp start from Bailey Ober and a timely offensive breakout, they did exactly that.

This wasn’t a game defined by chaos or a late collapse. Instead, the Twins steadily took control, turning a tight battle into a comfortable 7-1 win. They got contributions up and down the lineup, capitalized on mistakes, and rode strong pitching to get back in the win column.

BAILEY OBER SETS THE TONE
Ober didn’t overpower hitters, but he didn’t need to. From the start, he was in control. Despite allowing a leadoff single in the first, he worked efficiently, needing just 18 pitches to navigate five hitters. That became a theme. He pounded the zone early and often, throwing first-pitch strikes to 75% of the batters he faced, and kept Toronto off balance all night.

Through three innings, he was sitting at just 42 pitches with seven whiffs, even with his fastball hovering below 88 MPH. It wasn’t about velocity; it was about command and sequencing.

The only real damage came in the fourth, when Daulton Varsho turned on a fastball up and in and sent it over the right-field seats for a solo homer. Outside of that, Ober was in complete control. He cruised through six strong innings, marking his third straight quality start and his fourth consecutive outing of six or more innings. He exited in the seventh after allowing a leadoff bloop single, but by then, his job was more than done.

MISSED CHANCES, THEN A BREAKTHROUGH
Early on, it looked like it might be another frustrating night offensively.

The Twins put immediate pressure on Kevin Gausman in the first, getting a leadoff double from Byron Buxton, but they couldn’t bring him home. It set the tone for the early innings, when opportunities were there, but the big hit was not. For three innings, Gausman largely kept them quiet despite some loud contact, including a deep flyout from Josh Bell that likely leaves the yard on a warmer night.

The fourth inning changed everything. After Trevor Larnach worked a leadoff walk, Ryan Jeffers stepped in and worked an eight-pitch at-bat. It ended on a fastball over the heart of the plate, and Jeffers launched it into the bullpen in left-center for a two-run homer, flipping a 1-0 deficit into a 2-1 lead.

It was the swing they had been missing early, and it shifted the momentum for good.

ADDING ON AND PULLING AWAY
Once the Twins grabbed the lead, they didn’t let up. In the sixth, Buxton provided another spark. Twins legend Justin Morneau noted on the TV broadcast how well Buxton was hitting when he saw the other team’s starting pitcher for a third time. About three seconds later, Buxton homered. He turned on an inside fastball and sent it out for his team-leading eighth homer of the season. From there, the lineup kept grinding.

Larnach drew his second walk of the game and moved into scoring position, setting the stage for Austin Martin, who lined a ball into center to drive in another run and chase Gausman from the game. It marked the first time all season Gausman had allowed more than three runs in a start.

But the biggest inning came late. In the eighth, the Twins took full advantage of defensive miscues from Toronto. After Buxton’s third hit of the night, a misplayed Jeffers pop-up and an errant throw allowed him to reach third, and Bell followed by ripping a ball off the wall to bring him home. Moments later, another throwing error allowed Jeffers to score, making it 6-1.

Luke Keaschall drove in their seventh run on a sac fly, and the Twins pushed the game out of reach, turning a competitive matchup into a 7-1 advantage.

BULLPEN SLAMS THE DOOR
With Ober handing things off in the seventh, the bullpen took care of the rest.

Anthony Banda navigated a quick matchup against lefties before turning things over to Andrew Morris, who continued to impress. Morris worked efficiently through the end of the seventh and the eighth, allowing minimal traffic and keeping Toronto from mounting any kind of response. In the ninth, Justin Topa came on to close it out. Nothing came of a leadoff walk; a game-ending double play capped off the night. Clean, efficient, and exactly what the Twins needed.

After a couple of tough losses, this was a much-needed win. Strong starting pitching, timely hitting, and capitalizing on mistakes; it was a complete performance that got them back on track.

What’s Next?
The Twins and Blue Jays are back in action tomorrow night for game two of the series. Simeon Woods Richardson is on the hill for Minnesota, taking on his former team, and lefty Patrick Corbin will throw for Toronto. We saw this same pitching matchup in these teams’ first series in mid-April, with Toronto winning that one 10-4. First pitch is set for 7:10 PM CT.

Postgame Interviews
Coming Soon!

Bullpen Usage Chart

	SUN	MON	TUES	WED	THUR	TOT
Rogers	0	14	0	13	0	27
Morris	0	40	0	0	19	59
Banda	9	0	0	22	14	45
Funderburk	20	0	15	0	0	35
Garcia	0	0	23	0	0	23
Sands	7	0	13	0	0	20
Topa	10	0	0	0	12	22
Orze	0	0	0	28	0	28

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[Parfigliano]

I think Ober's pitching is so far the surprise of the season.

[Linus]

Fun game to watch as both starters were throwing strikes and working quickly. One positive I would like to point out (since I complained about it endlessly) is how much cleaner the Twins are playing. Mental mistakes are way down and they are being aggressive on the bases without running into outs. Many recent games where the other teams sloppy play was a major factor, not the Twins. 

[JD-TWINS]

Ober is 3-1 with a 3.55 ERA!

Banda had 2nd straight decent outing.

Topa was solid with his ground ball approach.

Morris solid in a shorter outing - decent stuff!

Buxton had 3 of 6 total hits …….. 4 walks ……. put up 7 runs with some HELP from the Jays defense. Fortunate!

Larnach 0-2 but 2 walks and 2 runs scored……. Martin 1-3 with a walk…….. along with Buxton’s surge, these guys are making offense go.

Bottom 4 guys in line-up were 0-13 with 1 walk and a sac fly between them.

[DataNerd]

Ober is going to be a case study in pitcher evaluation.  No idea why this is working.  He got a whiff on an 86mph fastball in the zone.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Why are the Toronto Blue Jays breaking so many bats this season?

[TJSweens]

Ober has really transitioned well into a baffle em with b*llspit pitcher. 

[Aggies7]

I like winning

[Church of Kreidler]

54 minutes ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Why are the Toronto Blue Jays breaking so many bats this season?

My bet? Corked.

But on a serious note, this was one of those games that made being a Twins fan worth it. Even if it hadn’t been such a trouncing, these guys did great. And we were doing well before the Jays defense fell apart. Don’t want to say anything more for fear of jinxing us!

[h2oface]

Ober and the pen catch Toronto on an off day, perhaps? Anytime the pen comes through it has become shocking. And Ober AND the pen? I’m shocked. 

Interesting tidbit about Buxton’s year so far. Of his 8 total homers, 6 are solo and 2 2-run. He has only 11 total RBI. 8 are himself from his own homers, a 2 from runners on before he homered. So he has a single RBI from all other opportunities with runners on in scoring position or multiple runners on. 1 all year. He does have 23 runs scored (15 from non-homers). Perhaps more of his hits will drive more runs in in the future. 

[Patzky]

6 hours ago, JADBP said:

How many times are we going to let Outman and Wallner flail away at the plate before we bring up someone who can actually hit the damn ball??????  This is so frustrating!! 

Neither one batted last night thankfully 

[Bangkok Twins Fan]

7 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Bottom 4 guys in line-up were 0-13 with 1 walk and a sac fly between them.

Still waiting for Lewis to rediscover his mojo. But I'm getting very impatient at this point. 

[DJL44]

7 hours ago, JADBP said:

How many times are we going to let Outman and Wallner flail away at the plate before we bring up someone who can actually hit the damn ball??????  This is so frustrating!! 

They weren’t in the lineup last night. Why are you complaining? Feel free to save that for a game where they actually get a chance to hit.

[DJL44]

32 games played, 20% of the season. Multiply stats by 5. Twins are playing at a 70 win pace. Buxton is on a 40 HR pace.

[DJL44]

Great challenge by Larnach to draw a walk last night.

[Blyleven2011]

8 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

I think Ober's pitching is so far the surprise of the season.

Everyone is so used to velocity  , remember Kyle hendriks of the cubbies , he got by and won with high eighties velocity ,  they called him the professor  , Ober and catcher using their minds to get the hitters out , cool , calm and collect ...

Buxton had a good night , everyone contributed ...

Toronto had bad hitting and defense  , blame it on JETLAG ...

[Patzky]

Let's keep Louie off the field this weekend.

[Western SD Fan]

4 hours ago, h2oface said:

Ober and the pen catch Toronto on an off day, perhaps? Anytime the pen comes through it has become shocking. And Ober AND the pen? I’m shocked. 

Interesting tidbit about Buxton’s year so far. Of his 8 total homers, 6 are solo and 2 2-run. He has only 11 total RBI. 8 are himself from his own homers, a 2 from runners on before he homered. So he has a single RBI from all other opportunities with runners on in scoring position or multiple runners on. 1 all year. He does have 23 runs scored (15 from non-homers). Perhaps more of his hits will drive more runs in in the future. 

I've always wondered if there are crafty righties.  We always here about crafty lefties.  Ober is starting to remind me of a poor man's Brad Radke.  A control pitcher with not a ton of swing and miss stuff but can keep hitters off balance throughout the game. 

I'm starting to wonder if Buxton should move down to 3rd or 4th in the lineup and swap Martin to the leadoff spot.  Martin seems to take a lot of pitches, get on base, and can steal a base.  What we really like in an old school leadoff spot.  Buxton was successful with ROB when Bader was hitting at the bottom of the lineup.  Him or no one like him is at the bottom of the lineup anymore.  If you want to use Buxton to the best of his abilities, he probably needs to move down in the lineup.  Here is a potential lineup:  Martin, Larnach, Buxton, Bell, Jeffers, then 6-9 can be however they want it since nobody is really contributing at the moment.

 

[JD-TWINS]

7 hours ago, DataNerd said:

Ober is going to be a case study in pitcher evaluation.  No idea why this is working.  He got a whiff on an 86mph fastball in the zone.

6’9” is different & his command is pretty sharp inside and outside of the Zone. Differing pitch shapes, that are significantly different.

[laloesch]

9 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

I think Ober's pitching is so far the surprise of the season.

Yes, agreed.  All those young guys in the pen and in the rotation need to watch him carefully.  Throwing hard is great, but can you really pitch?  Ober doesn't throw hard but he can pitch.  I'll eat crow, I thought he was utter toast after spring training, but so far, he's looked pretty darn good.  Not perfect but good.  

[laloesch]

21 minutes ago, Western SD Fan said:

I've always wondered if there are crafty righties.  We always here about crafty lefties.  Ober is starting to remind me of a poor man's Brad Radke.  A control pitcher with not a ton of swing and miss stuff but can keep hitters off balance throughout the game. 

Brad Radke's changeup could be straight filthy at times.  Absolute work horse.  He had a couple of bad seasons and few mediocre ones, but he was on fire in 1997 and still managed to win 20 games for a team that only won 68.  If he had played on a real winning contender in 1998, 1999, and 2000 he would have won 20 games in each of those seasons.  He played on some REALLY REALLY bad Twins teams in the mid to late 90's. He should be in the Hall of Fame.

I still think that if Liriano hadn't blown out his UCL in 2006, and Radke hadn't torn his labrum and had a stress fracture in his right shoulder, with Johan Santana firing on all cylinders, that team makes it to the world series.  

[jmlease1]

Ober is doing a heck of a job. Unsure how sustainable it is without a tick more velocity on the fastball, but you never know. location, changing speeds, making hitters uncomfortable, and not being predictable is a recipe for success at almost any velocity and the changeup has been filthy. Still concerning that the fastball gets ripped so hard, but maybe tossing junk after junk can work. Good for him.

Fewer hits, but the Twins took their walks and pushed more runs across with those xbhs. Jeffers is really having a nice season and he's been leading the offense. With Buxton hitting like this as well I'd like to see him out of the leadoff spot to drive more runners in, especially since Martin keeps playing well, but that's not a huge issue.

Nice work from Morris. If he can give you two good innings every 3 days or so that would be very helpful. Don't need to push him to 3 if he can consistently give you 2. We'll see how he does; I still think the bullpen needs reinforcements and more velocity.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Western SD Fan said:

I'm starting to wonder if Buxton should move down to 3rd or 4th in the lineup and swap Martin to the leadoff spot.  

Buxton is destroying starting pitchers the third time he sees them. Move him to cleanup and he might not see the starter a 3rd time.

[AceWrigley]

11 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

I think Ober's pitching is so far the surprise of the season.

Move over Jamie Moyer.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

2 hours ago, Western SD Fan said:

I've always wondered if there are crafty righties.  We always here about crafty lefties.  Ober is starting to remind me of a poor man's Brad Radke.  A control pitcher with not a ton of swing and miss stuff but can keep hitters off balance throughout the game. 

I'm starting to wonder if Buxton should move down to 3rd or 4th in the lineup and swap Martin to the leadoff spot.  Martin seems to take a lot of pitches, get on base, and can steal a base.  What we really like in an old school leadoff spot.  Buxton was successful with ROB when Bader was hitting at the bottom of the lineup.  Him or no one like him is at the bottom of the lineup anymore.  If you want to use Buxton to the best of his abilities, he probably needs to move down in the lineup.  Here is a potential lineup:  Martin, Larnach, Buxton, Bell, Jeffers, then 6-9 can be however they want it since nobody is really contributing at the moment.

 

Lee is hitting well now. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

13 hours ago, Linus said:

Fun game to watch as both starters were throwing strikes and working quickly. One positive I would like to point out (since I complained about it endlessly) is how much cleaner the Twins are playing. Mental mistakes are way down and they are being aggressive on the bases without running into outs. Many recent games where the other teams sloppy play was a major factor, not the Twins. 

Boy, is that good to see. Maybe the change in coaching staffs is helping. The next step is better hitting discipline - productive outs moving guys to third base after leadoff doubles (or singles plus a SB), sac flies when needed, etc. This team can only win if it is fundamentally sound. We don't have the talent to bludgeon anybody.  

[Linus]

59 minutes ago, LA Vikes Fan said:

Boy, is that good to see. Maybe the change in coaching staffs is helping. The next step is better hitting discipline - productive outs moving guys to third base after leadoff doubles (or singles plus a SB), sac flies when needed, etc. This team can only win if it is fundamentally sound. We don't have the talent to bludgeon anybody.  

That is a very under discussed aspect of competing with a limited payroll. You are going to have to be fundamentally sound to defeat greater talent. It also kind of confused me how sabr or analytics suggested avoiding outs is key when hitting. Wouldn’t it also, by extension, prioritize not giving away outs on the bases? Or giving the other team extra outs through sloppy play?  Seems like only one side of the coin got attention for quite a while there. 

[Senior Softball Guy]

Royce doesn't do slumps. Perhaps this is not a slump and is really who is. I certainly hope not. I have some terrific crow recipes because I've been eating a lot of it lately. Ober and Larnach in particular.

[stringer bell]

1 hour ago, LA Vikes Fan said:

Boy, is that good to see. Maybe the change in coaching staffs is helping. The next step is better hitting discipline - productive outs moving guys to third base after leadoff doubles (or singles plus a SB), sac flies when needed, etc. This team can only win if it is fundamentally sound. We don't have the talent to bludgeon anybody.  

I would guess that about 25 teams in MLB are bemoaning their inabilty to advance runners and score runners in scoring position or scoring runners from third with less than two out.

So far this year the Twins have outscored their hitting considerably. The team is 16th in team OPS, but ninth in runs per game.  They’ve hit a couple grand slams and a bunch of three-run homers and are above average in production with the bases loaded and runners in scoring position. Just think what those numbers would be if Buxton and Wallner’s numbers were not included. 

[stringer bell]

Another surprising stat is home run differential. The Twins have outhomered their opponents by a margin of 38-26.