Minnesota Twins 2026 Position Analysis: Starting Pitcher

[Nick Nelson]

Image courtesy of Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

Their vaunted rotation-fronting trio was to be foundational for Minnesota's hopes of fielding an unlikely contender this year. When Pablo López, Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober are healthy and on their games, it's hard to discount this team.

Unfortunately, López went down with a season-ending elbow injury on the first day of spring training. Ryan and Ober were slow to get going in the first half of camp, and both have question marks attached to them entering their second-to-last seasons under team control. It's unclear which version of Ober we're going to get this year, and whether Ryan will still be a Twin after the deadline.

These factors increase the urgency for the next wave of pitching talent to firmly establish itself in the major leagues. It is going to be the central storyline of this season, with major implications for the team's ability to compete in 2026 and contend for a championship down the road.

TWINS STARTING PITCHERS AT A GLANCE

Projected Rotation: Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Simeon Woods Richardson, Taj Bradley, Mick Abel
Depth: Zebby Matthews, Andrew Morris, David Festa
Prospects: Connor Prielipp, Kendry Rojas, Dasan Hill, Charlee Soto, Riley Quick

Twins fWAR Ranking Last Year: 16th out of 30
Twins fWAR Projection This Year: 14th out of 30

THE GOOD
The Twins have invested heavily in turning their pitching pipeline into a strength. They used high draft picks on Connor Prielipp, Dasan Hill, Charlee Soto and Riley Quick. They targeted Simeon Woods Richardson, Taj Bradley, Mick Abel and Kendry Rojas in high-profile deadline trades. Several of those pitchers on the verge of joining the MLB rotation mix, if not on already in it. Others are rising fast through the minors and garnering acclaim.

It's an exciting group. Woods Richardson has proven himself as at least a solid big-league starter, and his strong finish last year hinted at more to unlock. Bradley undoubtedly has more to unlock as a former top prospect who hasn't quite pulled it all together, but is still only 24. Rojas and Abel have commanded attention with their performances in camp, and the latter is angling for a spot in the Opening Day rotation.

 

Abel is competing for that spot against Zebby Matthews, who was conversely not acquired via any ambitious investment, but rather through savvy drafting and development. He's gone from eighth-round draft pick to potentially entrenching himself in the major-league rotation if he can stay healthy and find consistency. 

Much like Bradley, Rojas and Abel, Matthews has frontline-caliber stuff and that's plain to see. Same goes for David Festa, who will hopefully be able to rebound from a shoulder setback and contribute. This deep assortment of promising arms could give the Twins a big advantage when facing lesser fourth and fifth starters for other clubs.

The top of the rotation took a major hit with the loss of López, but in such a scenario, few teams could turn to an alternative No. 1 starter as good as Ryan. He's coming off an All-Star season at age 29. This year, only 11 AL starters are projected for a higher fWAR than Ryan's 3.1. The right-hander was slowed out of the gates in camp by a minor back tweak, but threw three innings in his spring debut last week and went four in a crisp outing on Monday.

Minnesota projects as a middle-of-the-pack team for starting pitching. If some of these young starters and post-hype prospects take real steps forward, they can easily finish a lot higher. The front office is counting on just that.

THE BAD
In a recent survey, MLB coaches and executives were asked to name the best teams at pitching acquisition and development. The Twins received only four votes, ranking near the bottom. That's not what we were hoping for after seven years of Derek Falvey's leadership. 

 

For all the talk of his pitching specialization, and all the success stories we've seen sort of start to materialize, not that many panned out under Falvey. Injuries have ravaged the pitching pipeline. Guys like Matthews and Festa, who rose to prominence as prospects, have stalled out in their entry to the majors. And the Twins are taking on several more similarly intriguing but unfinished projects that other orgs more or less gave up on in Bradley, Abel and Rojas. 

Jeremy Zoll now leads baseball ops for the Twins, but otherwise the faces are mostly the same. Pete Maki survived a coaching shakeup and still runs the pitching staff. These guys need to buck the trend and turn some young arms into actual difference-makers in the MLB rotation.

Past successes are already starting to fade from the picture. López will be coming back from Tommy John surgery in his final season under contract. Ryan seems somewhat unlikely to make it past this trade deadline as a Twin. And Ober saw a dramatic drop-off last year due to a velocity loss that shows no sign of being resolved.

 

No doubt these emerging arms entering the fold can be good. They just haven't been good yet. Bradley has a 4.86 career ERA, including 6.61 with the Twins last year. Able has a 6.23 career ERA (8.36 with Twins). Matthews and Festa haven't turned the corner, with ERAs over five. Rojas has yet to find success in Triple-A. At the end of the day, the proof is in the pudding.

THE BOTTOM LINE
This is going to be a transitional year for the Twins rotation. The younger starters have a chance to stake their claims and position this unit for a bright future, but they need to stay healthy and turn promise into results. Up until now, none have really been able to do it on the big-league stage.

I don't want to say "now or never" for them because they've all got time left to figure things out, but if several don't do it now, the Twins will never have a chance in 2026.

Catch up on the rest of our roster preview series:

• Twins 2026 Position Analysis: Catcher
• Twins 2026 Position Analysis: First Base
• Twins 2026 Position Analysis: Second Base
• Twins 2026 Position Analysis: Third Base
• Twins 2026 Position Analysis: Shortstop
• Twins 2026 Position Analysis: Left Field
• Twins 2026 Position Analysis: Center Field
• Twins 2026 Position Analysis: Right Field
• Twins 2026 Position Analysis: Designated Hitter

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[mikelink45]

Good summary, but less than stellar rotation outlook.  It was the part of the team that we were most confident in, but to summarize what you have written - Lopez out, Ryan with back issue, Ober not showing that he is back in form.  Then we have SWR, Abel, Matthews, Festa, Bradley.  SWR seems like the sure bet.  

SWR lifetime 4.21 ERA is far above the other 5.12,4.86,6.23,5.92

Our pitching coach has lots of arms to work with - what will he do with them?

[bean5302]

Quote

Much like Bradley, Rojas and Abel, Matthews has frontline-caliber stuff and that's plain to see.

I get being optimistic about the team's prospects and pipeline, but, this is way too over the top. Frontline starters pretty much all have a dominant pitch or two. 

Bradley? No.
Abel? Maaayyybe the curve.
Rojas? Nothing proven.
Matthews? No.

As a group, expecting more than #3 caliber results out of them is a big reach.

This collection of starters isn't absolutely capped at mid rotation, after all, Joe Ryan has gone from a #5 profile guy to a mid-upper rotation starter since arriving in the league. That said, it's not common for pitchers to be able to develop entirely new pitches and have success with them like Ryan has.

 

[jmlease1]

There's a lot of starting pitching options and some high upside guys in development. But we really need 1-2 of them to fully transition to MLB this season, because there's an unfortunately high chance Joe Ryan could get dealt. (I hate everything about that statement)

The last step in prospect development is the most treacherous one, and lately the Twins have seen a lot of prospects stumble at the gate. Sometimes it's injuries, other times it's not being able to adjust once the league gets a book on you. (sometimes it's both with this star-crossed club!)

If a couple guys out of the Bradley, Matthews, Abel, Festa, Morris, Preilipp, Rojas group make that transition with some certainty, then the rotation should be a strength for this team and provide a sturdy foundation to build on even if Ryan gets dealt. But it needs to happen. Of those 7 guys, at least 2 of them need to be in the rotation in 2027 as guys you can count on to take the ball every 5th day and give the team a chance. (better if it's 3 or 4!) It's disaster if we go 0-7.

 

[TJSweens]

"Zebby Matthews, who was conversely not acquired via any ambitious investment, but rather through savvy drafting and development."

More like a blind squirrel finding a nut if he actually pans out. There is nothing savvy about the way the Twins draft and develop pitchers.

[GNess]

The Twins top SP prospects all seem to have performed poorly to date so the Twins are banking on upside and purposeful development. 

This doesn't fill me with optimism.

[Jim H]

To me the,the thing that works for Ryan is his fastball. He throws it over 50% of the time and he can throw it when batters are expecting it and still get strikes or outs with it. Sure, he has developed other pitches but they work off his fastball.

I think that is the difference between Ryan and the other potential guys in the rotation. If you can't depend on your fastball to set up your other pitches, pitching gets a lot harder.

[rdehring]

Thanks for a realistic report on the starting staff.  At my age the glass better be half full, so I remain hopeful a couple of these young kids will take that last step and become solid starters for the Twins over the next 6+ years.  I continue to hope that either Abel or Bradley will take a big last step and challenge Ryan for the Team Ace crown.  Hopefully this year.

[thelanges5]

Twins have averaged using 8 to 9 starters a season recently. We are going to see almost all of the guys mentioned in this article at some point this season. Let’s see what we’ve got.

[Linus]

The last step in prospect development is the most treacherous one, and lately the Twins have seen a lot of prospects stumble at the gate. Sometimes it's injuries, other times it's not being able to adjust once the league gets a book on you. (sometimes it's both with this star-crossed club!)
 

I think this is not understood enough by most people. The last step is the hardest. 

[TopGunn#22]

The Twins have invested in SP's both in trades and the draft for 5-6 years now and our current "State of the Staff" is underwhelming.

EVERYTHING would be different if the Twins were entering this season as they had anticipated...with a healthy Pablo Lopez fronting the rotation, an All Star #2 in Joe Ryan and a resurgent Bailey Ober throwing 93 mph with his fastball setting up his devasting change-up.  2 of those 3 aren't going to happen.

While Mick Abel seems to have taken a giant step forward this spring training, Festa is hurt (again), Zebby hasn't impressed at all.  Bradley has had a couple nice outings but still lacks consistency, and SWR is,  well...SWR.  Good enough to be an average #5 but still seeming to be light years from #3 status.  

There are some nice prospects coming in the next year or two, but for 2026 it's not looking like a strength.  Maybe they will surprise me, but I'm not confident.  Zebby is especially confounding because normally his stuff is pretty good, but he's far too hittable.  Now it appears his velocity and stuff in general are down from last year.  

It's not the kind of encouragement I had hoped to find in spring training and time is running out.  

[HerbieFan]

"These guys need to buck the trend and turn some young arms into actual difference-makers in the MLB."

You could turn "young arms" into "some young players, heck, ANY players" and you would describe why this team is where it is.

 

[Nshore]

Off topic because he's not a starting pitcher candidate, but I wonder why John Klein didn't get more of a look for the bullpen.  It's not as though they're flush with right handed pitching out there.  It's like a trap door opened and he vanished.

[thelanges5]

Ober’s start today 3.17.26 per Gleeman:

Bailey Ober's average fastball velocity was down even more today vs. the Phillies.

Start #1 — 89.9 mph
Start #2 — 88.8 mph
Start #3 — 88.2 mph

Ober threw 58 pitches today and none of them cracked 90 mph. He also failed to record a strikeout and got just three swing-and-misses.

[Nshore]

3 hours ago, Jim H said:

To me the,the thing that works for Ryan is his fastball. He throws it over 50% of the time and he can throw it when batters are expecting it and still get strikes or outs with it. Sure, he has developed other pitches but they work off his fastball.

I think that is the difference between Ryan and the other potential guys in the rotation. If you can't depend on your fastball to set up your other pitches, pitching gets a lot harder.

I agree with you.  They need a good fastball.  Having said that, generally I think the Twins may be putting too much emphasis on velocity.  That may be why the Festas and Matthews, etc. are developing arm trouble. IMO they don't have to try to throw upper 90's to be successful.  It's a fine line.

[Old Twins Hat]

Ober is becoming a different kind of pitcher at this point -- off-speed, looping balls that drop right or left.

That might work for a couple innings in the early part of the season, but I can't see him being able to last very long with that approach.

Maybe they can put him on the 60-day and figure out how to squeeze two more MPH out of him.

Another kick in the shorts for the Twins vaunted pitching staff.  They are down to the kids at this point.

[LA Vikes Fan]

This could get ugly out of the gate. Ober may have to go on the IL to start the season to see if he can find a way to get 2-3 more MPH out of his fastball. If that happens, it's Ryan, then Bradley, SWR, Able adn Matthews. Lots of innings for the bullpen in that rotation. How much is Giolito again and would he come to a team this bad?

[Linus]

Read this before I checked the box score. Thinking I would see an Ober implosion but he pitched 4!innings giving up 2 hits and 1 run. Velocity aside, sounds like a good outing. 

[karcherd]

3 hours ago, thelanges5 said:

Ober’s start today 3.17.26 per Gleeman:

Bailey Ober's average fastball velocity was down even more today vs. the Phillies.

Start #1 — 89.9 mph
Start #2 — 88.8 mph
Start #3 — 88.2 mph

Ober threw 58 pitches today and none of them cracked 90 mph. He also failed to record a strikeout and got just three swing-and-misses.

And he gave up 1 run in four innings.  Even last year when he came back from injury he pitched better.  I get velocity is nice but we can't always ignore results.  And his stuff has always played up due to his length.  I am less worried about Ober, he can get batters out the old fashioned way by pitching.

[Cris E]

5 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

and SWR is,  well...SWR.  Good enough to be an average #5 but still seeming to be light years from #3 status.  

Pitching is hard. 369 guys started a game last year (245 started 5 or more), but only 127 threw 100 innings. The league had a 4.16 ERA, but that includes all the reliever innings as well.  Only 21 starting pitchers hit 4 WAR in 2025, and 13 more were between 3 and 4 WAR.

So what do you think a #3 pitcher looks like?  If you jump down to the 60-90 range of starters from last year you get between 2.0 - 1.3 WAR.  The middle of that third band is #75, and the guys there tied at 1.5 WAR (Shota Imanaga, Davis Martin, Taijuan Walker, Brad Lord, Mike Burrows.)  That's 3.73 to 4.34 ERA (95-109 ERA+) in 96-144 innings.

SWR had 2.2 WAR, with a 4.04 ERA (106 ERA+) in 111 innings, which actually put him at #48 among MLB starters last year. If you don't like WAR you can pick something else, but he started 22 games and was better than average. That's a solid #3 starter in modern MLB baseball.

[Jim H]

5 hours ago, Nshore said:

I agree with you.  They need a good fastball.  Having said that, generally I think the Twins may be putting too much emphasis on velocity.  That may be why the Festas and Matthews, etc. are developing arm trouble. IMO they don't have to try to throw upper 90's to be successful.  It's a fine line.

You are right. Velocity is nice but you can succeed as a starter without an  upper nineties fastball. While Ryan's fastball has some unique characteristics, a lot of his success with it is due to location. That is also true of other pitches as well. If you throw too many pitches waist high in the middle of the plate, major league hitters will make you pay. No matter the velocity or the movement.

[thelanges5]

5 hours ago, Nshore said:

Off topic because he's not a starting pitcher candidate, but I wonder why John Klein didn't get more of a look for the bullpen.  It's not as though they're flush with right handed pitching out there.  It's like a trap door opened and he vanished.

In an early March Strib article they said they wanted to keep him stretched out as a starter. Doesn’t mean he won’t be in the bullpen sometime this summer though. 

[mark sills]

7 hours ago, Nshore said:

Off topic because he's not a starting pitcher candidate, but I wonder why John Klein didn't get more of a look for the bullpen.  It's not as though they're flush with right handed pitching out there.  It's like a trap door opened and he vanished.

I watched him pitch in the back fields yesterday,  looked impressive 

[laloesch]

18 hours ago, thelanges5 said:

Ober’s start today 3.17.26 per Gleeman:

Bailey Ober's average fastball velocity was down even more today vs. the Phillies.

Start #1 — 89.9 mph
Start #2 — 88.8 mph
Start #3 — 88.2 mph

Ober threw 58 pitches today and none of them cracked 90 mph. He also failed to record a strikeout and got just three swing-and-misses.

yes.  It's beginning to look like Ober is cooked.

[JD-TWINS]

22 hours ago, Jim H said:

To me the,the thing that works for Ryan is his fastball. He throws it over 50% of the time and he can throw it when batters are expecting it and still get strikes or outs with it. Sure, he has developed other pitches but they work off his fastball.

I think that is the difference between Ryan and the other potential guys in the rotation. If you can't depend on your fastball to set up your other pitches, pitching gets a lot harder.

Ober (lack of any consistent velocity) - SWR (lack of velocity with lack of deception) - Matthews (lack of command in the zone)

These 3 are a Proof for your statement about fastball being a base to work from …….. with a small margin for error, they can/have been successful in shorter bursts. SWR & Ober have developed “pitch mix” to try & overcome their fastball issues. Matthews is a work progress.

[bean5302]

We've seen Ober at 88-89mph. He gets destroyed. I'm not quite as pessimistic on the velo as an above poster because a few of Ober's early fastballs/sinkers were like 89.9mph (really 90), though velo dropped FAST in later innings with him struggling to hit 88 and several 87.x mph offerings.

There are virtually zero successful MLB starters (guys you'd want in the rotation with ERA/FIP/xFIPs under 4.50 with fastballs averaging under 90.0mph. You get super elite first ballot HoF'ers late in their careers (Kershaw) who are the pinnacle of experience and non-fastball offerings with pinpoint control... and pretty much nobody else.

Quinn Priester is the exception to the rule above across 127 pitchers with 100+ innings last year.

Is Bailey Ober going to be the 1%er? Highly unlikely.

[JD-TWINS]

2 hours ago, laloesch said:

yes.  It's beginning to look like Ober is cooked.

2 hits - 1 run - 4 innings ……… “cooked”?

[laloesch]

17 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

2 hits - 1 run - 4 innings ……… “cooked”?

He's not even sitting above 90.  Yes cooked.

[bean5302]

For people arguing results are what matter...
Mickey Gasper is at .364/.462/.727 OPS 1.189 this spring.

[Major League Ready]

16 hours ago, Cris E said:

Pitching is hard. 369 guys started a game last year (245 started 5 or more), but only 127 threw 100 innings. The league had a 4.16 ERA, but that includes all the reliever innings as well.  Only 21 starting pitchers hit 4 WAR in 2025, and 13 more were between 3 and 4 WAR.

So what do you think a #3 pitcher looks like?  If you jump down to the 60-90 range of starters from last year you get between 2.0 - 1.3 WAR.  The middle of that third band is #75, and the guys there tied at 1.5 WAR (Shota Imanaga, Davis Martin, Taijuan Walker, Brad Lord, Mike Burrows.)  That's 3.73 to 4.34 ERA (95-109 ERA+) in 96-144 innings.

SWR had 2.2 WAR, with a 4.04 ERA (106 ERA+) in 111 innings, which actually put him at #48 among MLB starters last year. If you don't like WAR you can pick something else, but he started 22 games and was better than average. That's a solid #3 starter in modern MLB baseball.

 I think a lot of people view a #3 in the context of a playoff team.  A #3 SP looks different when viewed through that lens.  The middle of the 3rd band among playoffs teams would be ranked 30th.