Twins Spring Battle: Zebby Matthews vs. Mick Abel

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of William Parmeter

Spring training is ending, and final roster decisions loom for the Minnesota Twins. Injuries to Pablo López and David Festa have unexpectedly created an opening in the rotation.

Now, two young pitchers compete for the last rotation spot. Zebby Matthews began spring as the favorite, but Mick Abel’s recent electric performance has made the decision tougher. Only one will break camp with the club for Opening Day in Baltimore.

Why Matthews Should Make the Roster
To begin with, Matthews entered spring training as the leading candidate for the final rotation spot, and his overall profile still makes him a strong option for the Opening Day staff. Matthews’ 5.92 ERA through 25 starts raises concerns at first glance. Yet a closer look reveals tools that suggest greater potential than the ERA implies.

Matthews has the type of velocity teams crave in a modern starter. His four-seam fastball averaged 96.5 mph last season, and he pairs it with a slider that generated 50 strikeouts and a 38.5% whiff rate. That combination alone gives him the ability to miss bats consistently. Matthews has recorded 131 strikeouts in 117 innings, showing that his stuff is capable of producing outs at the highest level.

What makes Matthews even more intriguing is the depth of his arsenal. In addition to the fastball and slider, he mixes a cutter, changeup, curveball, and sinker. Few young pitchers possess that many options, and the variety allows him to attack hitters in multiple ways throughout a lineup.

Control has also been one of his greatest strengths. Over the past two seasons across all professional levels, Matthews has posted a 4.8% walk rate. Among pitchers with at least 50 combined starts during that span, that mark ranks seventh best. That type of command provides a solid foundation for long-term success.

Why Matthews Could Be Left Off the Roster
Despite the tools and upside, Matthews has struggled to turn his raw ability into consistent results. One of the biggest concerns has been his command within the strike zone. While Matthews does an excellent job limiting walks, his pitches often drift into dangerous locations once they cross the plate. Over the past two seasons, opposing hitters have posted a .362 batting average and a .979 OPS against his strikes, the second-worst marks among pitchers with at least 25 starts.

Left-handed hitters have been especially problematic. They have crushed Matthews’ pitches in the zone for a .406 batting average and a 9.1% home run rate. Those numbers suggest that his pitch placement needs significant improvement before he can fully harness his arsenal.

Still, there are signs that better days could be ahead. Matthews’ career FIP sits 1.51 runs lower than his ERA, suggesting he has been somewhat unlucky. Even a modest improvement in his in-zone command could significantly raise his ceiling.

Why Abel Should Make the Roster
Abel has made a case this spring. In 10 innings, he struck out nearly 40 percent of batters and issued no walks, quickly garnering attention for his control. Abel’s early outings were nearly flawless. He threw his first 10 innings without a walk or run, displaying the command the Twins wanted.

Even when tested, Abel responded well. Facing the Toronto Blue Jays, he walked George Springer on eight pitches, then left a slider that Daulton Varsho hit for a two-run homer. Abel rebounded by striking out the next three, then finished 3 1/3 innings. He gave up only three singles and erased a runner with a double play. That ability to recover could be a sign of maturation.

Abel has always possessed excellent raw stuff and a wide pitch mix. If his improved control is real, he could quickly become one of the most dynamic arms in the Twins’ rotation. On the fringes of contention, Abel might offer the highest upside among the pitchers competing for the final spot.

Why Abel Could Be Left Off the Roster
Abel still faces a challenge: experience. He has the fewest major league innings in the starting group, making him the easiest to send to Triple A. Developmentally, that option could make sense. Abel has struggled with walks throughout his minor league career, and the organization may want to see a larger sample size of improved command before handing him a permanent spot in the rotation.

Roster management also matters. Teams often keep younger pitchers in the minors early to avoid inconsistency in the big league rotation. Even with Abel showing the most electric arm this spring, the Twins may see a few more Triple-A starts as the safest path for his long-term growth.

The final rotation decision depends on philosophy. Matthews offers more experience and stability. Abel brings more upside. The Twins must weigh early-season safety against the potential boost Abel could provide. Realistically, both pitchers will be needed for critical roles throughout the 162-game season.

With Opening Day approaching quickly, the Twins must decide whether to trust Matthews’ experience or gamble on Abel’s potential. Either way, the outcome of this spring battle could have a significant impact on who heads north with the club.

Who should earn the final rotation spot? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

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[stringer bell]

Both players have options. For what it's worth Abel has 50 days of major league service time. Spending two months in Triple A will give the Twins another year of team control under the current rules. Zebby has 1 year and 10 days, so two weeks in St. Paul would net another year of control for Matthews.

[mickster]

I prefer Abel to get the first chance with Zebby working on location at AAA

[Cory Engelhardt]

I still think it's assuming an awful lot that Ober will be fully stretched out and ready to start by opening day. I am going into this expecting both Abel and Matthews to be on the roster because of that. I guess we'll see.

If I HAD to choose one as of today it'd be Abel. But I bet both start plenty of games this year.

[Danchat]

Abel all the way, give him all the MLB exposure that he can handle. Zebby will still get probably around 20 starts in the majors given how often injuries happen.

[bean5302]

The Falzoll Twins have a history of the quick hook for young players. I think it's a real shame, too because it messes with people to know every time you don't strike somebody out, every plate appearance where you don't hit a home run, you're likely to get demoted. That kind of mentality destroys development and younger players.

Making a decision based on 10 innings in Spring Training is pretty wild.

Matthews should get the nod as part of the rotation so long as he looks better in his next start or two.

[Dman]

I get that spring training numbers don't mean much, but I'd still give the nod to Abel for that last spot.  Abel's ceiling is just higher than Zebby's and all he really needed to improve on was his control.  If his control is under control I think he has the better pitch mix and better stuff.  He has the the potential to be mid or higher caliber arm.

Still as this article noted they might still give that last spot to Matthews and give Abel some time at AAA since he has the least amount of MLB time.  In the end I don't think it will matter much as I am not convinced Ober will last long to start the season and Abel or Matthews will be called up relatively soon anyway.

[jmlease1]

Right now I'd probably go Abel ahead of Matthews, but we're going to see plenty of both this season I'm sure.

I'll admit, I'm tantalized by Abel's electric stuff, and if he's managed to mitigate his control problems even a little he could be really fun to watch.

[DarrenPS]

Not really mentioned here is the sharp decline in Zebby's stuff so far this spring. I'm hoping he is just ramping up but his velo is down on all pitches, and his Stuff is grading poorly on all of those twitter pages. Right now Mick has my vote

[GNess]

Interesting questions and points of view about what should be the basis for making this decision. At some point. their performance will sort this out. Spring training involves a small sample of real time performance as one of the many data points available.

Matthews is struggling with command, if it doesn't improve in the next start or two Abel becomes the likely and best choice to earn a spot in the rotation.

[Linus]

I believe that Abel is the better pitcher now and has more upside. For that reason I would start him in St Paul to get the extra year of service time. Then he comes up and never goes back. 

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I still think it's assuming an awful lot that Ober will be fully stretched out and ready to start by opening day. I am going into this expecting both Abel and Matthews to be on the roster because of that. I guess we'll see.

If I HAD to choose one as of today it'd be Abel. But I bet both start plenty of games this year.

Not sure what obvious evidence we have that Ryan is ahead of Ober at this point? Am certainly equally concerned about Joe.

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

The Falzoll Twins have a history of the quick hook for young players. I think it's a real shame, too because it messes with people to know every time you don't strike somebody out, every plate appearance where you don't hit a home run, you're likely to get demoted. That kind of mentality destroys development and younger players.

Making a decision based on 10 innings in Spring Training is pretty wild.

Matthews should get the nod as part of the rotation so long as he looks better in his next start or two.

.400 plus batting average against by LH hitters with a 9.1% HR rate is all I need to see to defer to giving ABEL the chance ahead of Matthews.

[nicksaviking]

If the Twins want to present any facade of there being an 'open competition' for jobs, Abel has to get a spot.

Why is Bradley being given a rotation spot though? If he had put up those 73 starts in three years all with the Twins, he'd have opened spring training as a reliever. Are we just ignoring his time with Tampa and presuming the Twins coaches have fixed what ails him?

[Cory Engelhardt]

25 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Not sure what obvious evidence we have that Ryan is ahead of Ober at this point? Am certainly equally concerned about Joe.

I’m nowhere near AS concerned about Joe, but I get what you are saying. 

[mikelink45]

I would prefer a six man rotation to begin.  Let them duel against real talent in meaningful games.  Reduce the stress on Ryan's back, Ober's struggles, and SWR and Bradley's growth.  

[DocBauer]

An interesting competition to be sure.  But I'm not sure it really matters? Unless he himself is injured, the #6 guy...or "loser" in this competition...is going to start 20 games plus over the 6 month season. It's just the nature of the beast that is a marathon of a season.

I would love to see both in the rotation, but that means someone else is hurt, and I never wish that for anyone. 

If I'm forced to pick, I'd pick Matthews. i say that because he's older, has nothing left to prove at AAA, and in theory that means he's EARNED the job and is ready to take the next step. That leaves the younger Abel...with less time at AAA than Matthews...as the next man up. And again, he'd still end up spending most of the season with the Twins anyway.

[Nshore]

The article refers to Matthews and "experience and stability" as though he's Jim Perry or something.  Matthews performance has been anything but stable.  Abel has my vote until he proves otherwise.

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

.400 plus batting average against by LH hitters with a 9.1% HR rate is all I need to see to defer to giving ABEL the chance ahead of Matthews.

Andrew Albers first 2 games started at the MLB level.
17.1 IP, 0 ER, 1 SHO

[jmlease1]

56 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

I would prefer a six man rotation to begin.  Let them duel against real talent in meaningful games.  Reduce the stress on Ryan's back, Ober's struggles, and SWR and Bradley's growth.  

There's barely a need for a 5 many rotation early in the season. carrying a 6th starter early just makes it more likely the already shaky bullpen struggles more with fewer options. And I haven't seen much evidence that spacing things out more for inexperienced pitchers (I probably should stop calling guys like Bradley and Matthews "young" any longer) will actually improve their long-term prospects.

Would 2-3 starts in March/April really tell us all that much more? Seems unlikely. Pick one, let them go for into at least May unless it's just an utter disaster from the jump.

[sweetmusicviola16]

Personally I go with both Matthews and Abel and Bradley is in the Pen. Time to see what Abel has and why we traded Duran. 

[IndianaTwin]

1 hour ago, jmlease1 said:

There's barely a need for a 5 many rotation early in the season. carrying a 6th starter early just makes it more likely the already shaky bullpen struggles more with fewer options. And I haven't seen much evidence that spacing things out more for inexperienced pitchers (I probably should stop calling guys like Bradley and Matthews "young" any longer) will actually improve their long-term prospects.

Would 2-3 starts in March/April really tell us all that much more? Seems unlikely. Pick one, let them go for into at least May unless it's just an utter disaster from the jump.

Are you referring to April off days? Discounting the possibility of weather issues, there are fewer off days in early April this year than is often the case. They have two off days in the first six days, but then launch into 15 straight. 

But, one viable option is to recognize that with those two early days off, they don't "need" a fifth starter until April 5. They could choose to send them both down and go the first week and a half with an extra guy in the bullpen, both in recognition that starters tend to go shorter earlier and that there is also some sorting out that needs to happen in the bullpen. Whichever is deemed as the "winner" of the 5th spot could start the St. Paul opener on March 31 and be brought up for the April 5 start. 

[KirbyDome89]

4 hours ago, bean5302 said:

The Falzoll Twins have a history of the quick hook for young players. I think it's a real shame, too because it messes with people to know every time you don't strike somebody out, every plate appearance where you don't hit a home run, you're likely to get demoted. That kind of mentality destroys development and younger players.

Making a decision based on 10 innings in Spring Training is pretty wild.

Matthews should get the nod as part of the rotation so long as he looks better in his next start or two.

What players has this organization "messed with?" In particular, what SPs have been derailed specifically by the Twins failing to provide opportunity? Off the top of my head I can't think of a single starter who has flourished elsewhere after being pushed aside. 

[stringer bell]

Spring numbers don’t mean much. From Day 1, Shelton has singled out Bradley (in a good way). He’s got a live arm and some good pitches and he’s still pretty  young despite over two years of service time. 

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, KirbyDome89 said:

What players has this organization "messed with?" In particular, what SPs have been derailed specifically by the Twins failing to provide opportunity? Off the top of my head I can't think of a single starter who has flourished elsewhere after being pushed aside. 

Are you intentionally working hard to take my comment out of context?

The Twins have played the yo-yo game with a number of younger players when it comes to short leashes. Much more so on the position player side of the equation than the pitching side.

The criteria you've set to prove validity of my position that having a short leash on players influences their methodology require the player to perform poorly with the Twins, be shuffled frequently between the minors and majors, then be given a subsequent more patient environment and to go on to be far better for another team. Pretty narrow.

I think it's common knowledge setting an unrealistic expectation for performance, then punishing a person for not hitting that performance number is a bad environment.

[MGX]

6 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

If the Twins want to present any facade of there being an 'open competition' for jobs, Abel has to get a spot.

Why is Bradley being given a rotation spot though? If he had put up those 73 starts in three years all with the Twins, he'd have opened spring training as a reliever. Are we just ignoring his time with Tampa and presuming the Twins coaches have fixed what ails him?

If Bradley was in the Twins organization during his age 22-24 year old seasons they would have been spent in minors. Instead he's been holding his own (4.38 FIP) in a division with a lot of good hitters & hitters parks as a young pitcher. 

It's easy to see why Bradley & SWR have the inside track over Zebby & Abel. I hoping for great results from both Zebby & Abel, but it isn't a bad thing if one of them spends some time in AAA. 

As others have mentioned my biggest concern on this staff is Ober.

[Western SD Fan]

4 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

What players has this organization "messed with?" In particular, what SPs have been derailed specifically by the Twins failing to provide opportunity? Off the top of my head I can't think of a single starter who has flourished elsewhere after being pushed aside. 

I could make a tepid argument for Zach Littel.  While I wouldn't suggest he has flourished, he has managed to carve out a meaningful career post-Twins.  Even so much that some people wanted to bring him back in FA to round out the rotation for this year. 😬

If Zebby had established himself last season, there could be a better argument that his ST shouldn't matter as much and be given a little more rope.  But he didn't and the reason that they traded for Abel and Bradley is what you see now:  a chance for them to establish themselves into the rotation.  As other posters have noted, I still see Zebby likely getting 20+ starts this season, especially if Ryan is eventually traded, or a pitcher goes down with injury.  

I do like @IndianaTwin idea of having both Abel and Matthews start in St. Paul and riding an extra reliever for the first week.  Bonus that both the Twins and Saints will be at home during the same weekend so one of them could get called up for the game on Sunday April 5th and would just have to take the Green Line across town.

[arby58]

8 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

Why is Bradley being given a rotation spot though? If he had put up those 73 starts in three years all with the Twins, he'd have opened spring training as a reliever. Are we just ignoring his time with Tampa and presuming the Twins coaches have fixed what ails him?

Well, neither Bradley or Matthews was great last year. That said, Bradley's stats look better than Matthews so far this spring. The one that jumps out is Bradley 19 Ks and 5 BB in 14 innings, versus Matthews' 9 Ks and 4 BB in 11 innings. There was a nice piece on this site awhile back about Matthews' fastball being 'flat' and thus pretty hitable - he's not generating swings and misses.

[arby58]

3 hours ago, bean5302 said:

I think it's common knowledge setting an unrealistic expectation for performance, then punishing a person for not hitting that performance number is a bad environment.

I'm trying to think of the young player where the Twins set 'an unrealistic expectation for performance' leading to their demotion. I'm drawing a blank - legitimately curious as to the players this refers to.

[arby58]

6 hours ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

Personally I go with both Matthews and Abel and Bradley is in the Pen. Time to see what Abel has and why we traded Duran. 

The Duran trade's biggest return (in terms of upside potential at a position of great need) was Tait. Bradley has far more starting experience than either of them, and he's definitely had a better ST than Matthews.