Why Zebby Matthews Still Has Breakout Written All Over Him

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of © Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images

Zebby Matthews did not deliver the season many had hoped for in 2025, especially after his breakout minor league season. The surface numbers were rough, the contact quality was worse than expected, and the results often failed to live up to the promise that followed him up the minor league ladder. Still, writing him off after one uneven year would miss the bigger picture. When you look beyond the ERA and dig into how Matthews actually pitched, there are plenty of reasons to believe his 2026 season could look very different.

The run prevention was ugly. Matthews finished his rookie campaign with a 5.56 ERA across just under 80 innings, and the batted ball profile worked against him. Too many balls were hit hard (38.8 Hard-Hit%), and too many were lifted into the air, leaving little margin for error. Even the expected numbers did not entirely bail him out, reinforcing that hitters were squaring him up more often than a pitcher with his stuff should allow.

That said, the Twins have every incentive to keep giving Matthews opportunities. He currently projects to be one of the team’s options for the back of the rotation, but there are plenty of arms to consider, including David Festa, Taj Bradley, Mick Abel, and Simeon Woods Richardson. The rotation could also look very different by midseason. With trade speculation swirling around established arms, Matthews is positioned to climb the depth chart simply by staying healthy and available. Opportunity alone matters, and Matthews is likely to get it.

What makes that opportunity intriguing is how strong his underlying performance actually was. Matthews posted a 3.79 FIP and paired it with an 18.1 K-BB% that sat well above league average. Those numbers paint the picture of a pitcher who was doing many things right, even as the results lagged behind. For a young starter, that combination is usually a sign of future growth rather than a dead end.

There was also tangible progress in his raw stuff. Matthews added velocity to his fastball, pushing it from 95.2 mph to 96.3 mph without sacrificing movement or shape. The issue was not quality but approach. Matthews lived in the heart of the strike zone far too often, and big league hitters rarely miss those mistakes. A more selective fastball plan, especially later in counts, could go a long way toward cutting down the damage.

His slider remains the calling card. Thrown harder (88 mph) with tighter action, it became a legitimate bat-missing weapon against right-handed hitters (39.6 Whiff%). Matthews consistently buried it on the outer edge, generating chases and whiffs while limiting quality contact (0.260 xwOBACON). When the slider stayed down, hitters had little chance. When it drifted back into the zone, especially against left-handed bats, it became vulnerable. That is a command refinement issue, not a stuff problem.

His splits against lefties are where the puzzle gets interesting. Matthews' K-BB% barely changed by handedness, yet the run prevention gap was massive. He held righties to a 2.73 FIP and lefties to a 4.97 FIP. That points almost entirely to home run susceptibility rather than to an inability to compete. Against left-handed hitters, most of his pitches were punished when they caught too much of the plate.

The exception was his changeup. Quietly, it was his best answer to lefties. Matthews located it well on the outer third and avoided the heart of the zone, keeping contact relatively soft. However, he rarely threw the pitch with two strikes and only had one strikeout using arguably his best offspeed pitch for lefties. The result was a pitch that looked useful but never had the chance to impact outcomes. This could be a confidence issue for a player getting accustomed to big-league hitters.

Pitch usage is one of the easiest adjustments a pitcher can make, and Matthews feels like a prime candidate. Reducing reliance on fastballs, especially in finishing counts, would better leverage his deep arsenal. Trusting the changeup against lefties, particularly when ahead, could directly address his biggest weakness from a year ago. These are not mechanical overhauls or health gambles. They are strategic tweaks.

When you zoom out, Matthews still checks every box teams look for in a mid-rotation starter. He has size, velocity, multiple usable pitches, and command that already grade above average. The foundation is there. The challenge is aligning his approach with his strengths.

That is why 2026 feels less like a crossroads and more like an opportunity. If Matthews makes even modest adjustments to how he sequences and deploys his arsenal, the gap between his peripherals and his results should narrow quickly. His 2025 season may have been disappointing, but the 2026 season has all the ingredients for a breakout.

Do you believe Matthews can break out in 2026? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

 

View full article

[thelanges5]

The top 4 spots seem locked in. Pablo, Joe, Ober, and SWR. SWR is out of options. 

IMO Festa is a prime candidate for the bullpen, leaving Abel, Bradley, and Zebby to duke it out for the 5th spot. Barring injury and/or ST breakout I think it would be Bradley to start the season. 

The Twins have averaged using between 8-9 starters to get through 162 so there will be opportunities for all of these guys. 
 

 

[DasBat]

I think you are spot on with Festa destined for the bullpen.  I believe Bradley should end up there too.  I just don’t see the Twins agreeing with me

[TopGunn#22]

GREAT article Cody.  I have been a big believer in Matthews since he first came up.  He's got great stuff.  He's just got to locate it more consistently and rely a little less on his fastball.  It's interesting, in the above video he strikes out a guy with a 98 mph fastball low in the zone and with a slider at 91 mph with great movement.  If his slider sits 88-91 with movement like that it would be hard for a RH hitter and even some LH hitters if it busts them inside on the hands that hard.

It seems like every pitcher in the Twins rotation had a better ERA with FIP than what their actual ERA was.  This goes directly to a team that provides sub par defense at every position other than CF.  This team MUST move away from Larnach and Wallner in the corner OF positions and put guys out there that have better range.  The infield needs to take a massive step forward.  Lewis is looking better at 3B, but Lee lacks range and we're looking so/so at 1B.  Keaschall might get a bit better if his arm continues to improve after TJ, but he's not being described as a future Gold Glove candidate.

I'll continue to say that there is no room in the Twins rotation for Baily Ober.  Ryan, Lopez and SWR should be in there.  Matthews, Abel and Bradley should be competing for the final 2 spots.  Ober should not be blocking any of these young pitchers.  Especially when he still has a BBTV of 21.0  With Josh Bell becoming the primary DH there is no room for the lumbering Wallner (20.5) on this roster.

Take that 41.5 value, and maybe the 15.3 from Jeffers (56.8 total value) and make a trade for a bona fide catcher and other talent whether that would be BP, OF or IF talent to provide better athleticism in the field.  If there is one area that could give the Twins a hint of a chance of competing in the A.L. Central it is the rotation.  If these young pitchers take a step forward this year and their defense helps them instead of hurts them, the Twins would be competitive on a game by game basis provided the BP gets one or two veteran arms and the offense gets a little better.

[Blyleven2011]

Zebulon has promise , he should try either moving over on the rubber and definitely should pitch high out of the zone and get batters to chase , worked for rocket roger clemens ...

[Linus]

I think it is pretty simple with Mathews. He’s got the stuff and multiple good pitches. In the minors he could throw everything over the plate and get guys out. In the bigs he just has to hit his spots a little more consistently and he could be really good. I like his pitch mix better than Festa and he has better command than Bradley. He and Abel are our best starter bets for the future. 

[LewFordLives]

There will be injuries and there will be ample opportunities for Abel, Matthews, and Bradley to get starts. The question is who makes the most of those starts.

[jorgenswest]

I don’t know if he earns a spot in the starting rotation. I do believe that facing major league hitters is best for his development. He has dominated AAA. If he doesn’t make the rotation he needs to be in the bullpen.

[DJL44]

Neither Abel nor Matthews have anything left to learn in AAA. They need to open a spot in the MLB rotation or both of them will end up in AAA to start the season.

35 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

With Josh Bell becoming the primary DH there is no room for the lumbering Wallner (20.5) on this roster.

I'd say with the younger, cheaper Wallner on the team, there is no room for Josh Bell on this roster. What do I know, though. I think MLB teams should be able to play defense. The Twins front office gets paid a lot more than me and they're convinced you can play anyone anywhere and defense doesn't matter.

[TopGunn#22]

That's a good point DJL44, and I probably wouldn't have used the money they did to sign Josh Bell.  That said, they have made their bed and in 2026 there is no realistic benefit to having Larnach, Wallner, Ober and even Jeffers on this roster. 

The Twins need to get something for Jeffers before he walks in FA.  With Scott Boras as his agent, he's not signing an extension.  The Twins FO knew this situation long ago, yet have failed to address it.  Ober should not be blocking the young SP's.  He still has value and it should be leveraged to improve the team in other areas. 

With young OF's like Jenkins, E-Rod and Gonzalez knocking on the door it's time to get more athletic in the OF and improve the defense.  After this season, Gonzalez could emerge as the primary DH who fills in at corner OF occasionally.   

[rdehring]

I expect that one, or more of the Twins young starters will end up in the bullpen.  It is my belief that Matthews should be one of them.  With his stuff, I can see him as a shut-down late inning guy.  That could be huge for the Twins over the next half dozen years.

[Nashvilletwin]

1 hour ago, thelanges5 said:

The top 4 spots seem locked in. Pablo, Joe, Ober, and SWR. SWR is out of options. 

IMO Festa is a prime candidate for the bullpen, leaving Abel, Bradley, and Zebby to duke it out for the 5th spot. Barring injury and/or ST breakout I think it would be Bradley to start the season. 

The Twins have averaged using between 8-9 starters to get through 162 so there will be opportunities for all of these guys. 
 

 

There will be a lot more opportunities for all of these guys when Ryan and Lopez are traded no later than the deadline……

[Nashvilletwin]

17 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

That's a good point DJL44, and I probably wouldn't have used the money they did to sign Josh Bell.  That said, they have made their bed and in 2026 there is no realistic benefit to having Larnach, Wallner, Ober and even Jeffers on this roster. 

The Twins need to get something for Jeffers before he walks in FA.  With Scott Boras as his agent, he's not signing an extension.  The Twins FO knew this situation long ago, yet have failed to address it.  Ober should not be blocking the young SP's.  He still has value and it should be leveraged to improve the team in other areas. 

With young OF's like Jenkins, E-Rod and Gonzalez knocking on the door it's time to get more athletic in the OF and improve the defense.  After this season, Gonzalez could emerge as the primary DH who fills in at corner OF occasionally.   

It’s not only Jeffers who’s represented by Boras and is never signing an extension……ahem, Ryan.

The Twins will need to pull a Canucks’ Quinn Hughes deal on several Twins this season.  We know the four valuable candidates. But the wait and see strategy might actually work; namely, wait and see if we catch fire and can contend, while real contenders emerge and/or suffer injuries.  The starting pitcher market has been slow, but already feels as if values are going up a bit,

The patience might work. But let’s not get delusional and ultimately get nada for them. 

[LambchoP]

Zebby's got good stuff. Actually really gook K/BB numbers, he just gives up too much contact. If they can tweak his pitch mix and get a bit better at location I think he can be a solid mid rotation starter for a lot of years. I think they should trade Over and Larnach for bullpen help. Festa should make the transition to reliever along with Raya and maybe Prelipp. But, relying on three rookies and a couple mid level guys like Sands, Topa and the new guy is going to be a disaster. Any lead we might be able to get will be given right back. Every day I see more and more relievers signed and yet the Twins are sitting on their hands. Do they have a plan? If they do it's "wait until spring training until everyone has signed who they want. See who is left and then sign them for dirt cheap while they are desperate for a contract."

[ziggy]

I'm guessing the front office feels the trade value of the valued four will remain the same if the Twins are 10 games back by June 1st as it is now otherwise I see no reason to hold onto false hope. Before the roster gut last year the team was defensively challenged and they traded two of the better defensive players in Bader and Correa. I just don't see roster improvements anywhere so how can this team compete when last years team sucked at defense, fundamentals and often hitting. No name AAA pitchers often manhandled the hitters with no adjustments from the team. 

Matthews is a good pitcher, he just gets wild in the zone too often and good hitters can square up the ball and make him pay for it. As much as I like Lopez, Obar and Ryan, Matthews need to pitch in Target Field and perhaps it's time for a total full measure restart.

[bean5302]

At this point, Zebby has the raw stuff to be excellent, but there are some guys who just do not live up to their expected stats. Brandon Pfaadt is the best cautionary tale I can possibly give on this right now.

He's all projection. Should be better, but he's not. Arizona doubled, even tripled down on expected metrics when the extended him to a 5yr $45MM contract. The AAV isn't going to break any team's back on its own, but Pfaadt wasn't effective. He had always been ineffective. ERA 5.72, then 4.71 (extension), then 5.25 last year. It wasn't one blow up game, either. Pfaadt delivered my preferred metric I call QS2 (5.0+ IP, 3.99ERA or lower) only 45% of the time. That's passable if he didn't have 8 starts with an ERA over 9 where he basically eliminated any chance of his team winning a game. That's like -5 WAR right there as even a AAA replacement pitcher would go 3-5 over 8 games. The pitch which arguably wrecked his year was the curveball. You could say he had... trouble with the curve. Ha, I'm clever. That was the pitch which absolutely wrecked game after game despite stuff metrics saying it was solid.

Matthews delivered a QS2 only 37.5% of the time. That's pretty poor. He was reliably ineffective. The pitch which was likely to wreck a start was a sinker he added, but the standard rough start is owed to... his highly touted as improved fastball.

There is another much maligned pitcher in Twins history who had stuff and expected metrics which said he should be better than he was. Ricky Nolasco. I'm not saying the two starters are comparable in terms of how they go about their craft, just that there are enough instances of pitchers who should be better, but aren't that Matthews is no sure bet. Personally, what I've seen watching him is poor command despite good control. Joe Ryan suffered from that earlier in his career as well. Ryan refused to walk guys, instead challenging MLB hitters when he should have accepted he was beat in the at bat. Ryan is an exception to the rule as he's developed and mastered multiple changes to his arsenal. Hopefully, Matthews can stick with his impressive arsenal and just improve his feel for the pitches to allow him to improve the actual results instead of just the expected numbers.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

The Twins undoubtedly have a large number of pitchers that would probably be best served by spending time facing major league hitters.  That doesn't mean that they will all be successful major league starters, but for now they are on that trajectory.  However, with 3/5 (probably 4/5 if Ober is still here in April) of the rotation spots spoken for, there isn't a lot of room.  Certainly someone can (and should) go to St. Paul, but that still leaves Zebby, Festa, Bradley, and Abel fighting for one spot, and that's without the assumed transition to the bullpen for Raya and Prielipp.  I'm not that optimistic that Ober is going to come back and be successful this season, so I look at trading him for an established reliever and a flyer on a lower level player.  I'm also trying to trade Larnach for a reliever as well -- but there's plenty of room there.  

In my mind, you give all four of the guys plenty of chances in the spring, send down the guy who has identifiable specific things to work on, move the one short on stamina to the bullpen, and go from there.  That still gives you an extra one, but don't worry, someone will get hurt.  Every team has that happen to them every year and the 2026 Twins will be no different. If you get TWO of the young guys tearing it up, then trading a starter at the deadline will be decidedly less painful for everyone involved.  

[tarheeltwinsfan]

4 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

GREAT article Cody.  I have been a big believer in Matthews since he first came up.  He's got great stuff.  He's just got to locate it more consistently and rely a little less on his fastball.  It's interesting, in the above video he strikes out a guy with a 98 mph fastball low in the zone and with a slider at 91 mph with great movement.  If his slider sits 88-91 with movement like that it would be hard for a RH hitter and even some LH hitters if it busts them inside on the hands that hard.

It seems like every pitcher in the Twins rotation had a better ERA with FIP than what their actual ERA was.  This goes directly to a team that provides sub par defense at every position other than CF.  This team MUST move away from Larnach and Wallner in the corner OF positions and put guys out there that have better range.  The infield needs to take a massive step forward.  Lewis is looking better at 3B, but Lee lacks range and we're looking so/so at 1B.  Keaschall might get a bit better if his arm continues to improve after TJ, but he's not being described as a future Gold Glove candidate.

I'll continue to say that there is no room in the Twins rotation for Baily Ober.  Ryan, Lopez and SWR should be in there.  Matthews, Abel and Bradley should be competing for the final 2 spots.  Ober should not be blocking any of these young pitchers.  Especially when he still has a BBTV of 21.0  With Josh Bell becoming the primary DH there is no room for the lumbering Wallner (20.5) on this roster.

Take that 41.5 value, and maybe the 15.3 from Jeffers (56.8 total value) and make a trade for a bona fide catcher and other talent whether that would be BP, OF or IF talent to provide better athleticism in the field.  If there is one area that could give the Twins a hint of a chance of competing in the A.L. Central it is the rotation.  If these young pitchers take a step forward this year and their defense helps them instead of hurts them, the Twins would be competitive on a game by game basis provided the BP gets one or two veteran arms and the offense gets a little better.

Don't you dare trade Jeffers. Ober and Mathews, both North Carolina boys, needs a catcher calling their pitches, who understands and appreciates the difference in Eastern North Carolina BBQ and Western North Carolina BBQ, hushpuppies, collards cooked right and sweet potato casserole, Jeffers lives in Raleigh. 

[arby58]

4 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

With Josh Bell becoming the primary DH there is no room for the lumbering Wallner (20.5) on this roster.

I don't get the disdain for Wallner, particularly in comparison to Bell. Over the last three years, Wallner's OPS+ was 138, 149, 110, and Bell was 101, 100, 110. Wallner's WAR was 2.2, 2.2, and 0.6, while Bell was -0.1, -0.6, and 0.4. Last year, they both had 22 HRs, but Wallner did it in 392 PAs while Bell had 533. Wallner is 28 and controllable, Bell is 33 on a 1-year contract. No way I'm casting off Wallner. Larnach, OTOH . . . 

[twinstalker]

Counting on Zebby taking the step.

[Danchat]

I don't have confidence in most this roster, but I am bullish on Zebby making a step forward in 2026. He's one of a few starting prospects that I don't think should shift to the bullpen, and I'd like to see him get a lot of starts in the big leagues. Right now I don't think he starts in the MLB rotation, but when injuries strike I think he'll be up fairly quickly.

[Parfigliano]

12 hours ago, LewFordLives said:

There will be injuries and there will be ample opportunities for Abel, Matthews, and Bradley to get starts. The question is who makes the most of those starts.

I hope all 3 of them.

[AlLagoon]

I dunno, his WTF is off the charts, coupled with that sterling FTP.

Bustout a comin'.

[TopGunn#22]

18 hours ago, arby58 said:

I don't get the disdain for Wallner, particularly in comparison to Bell. Over the last three years, Wallner's OPS+ was 138, 149, 110, and Bell was 101, 100, 110. Wallner's WAR was 2.2, 2.2, and 0.6, while Bell was -0.1, -0.6, and 0.4. Last year, they both had 22 HRs, but Wallner did it in 392 PAs while Bell had 533. Wallner is 28 and controllable, Bell is 33 on a 1-year contract. No way I'm casting off Wallner. Larnach, OTOH . . . 

It's not disdain arby58, it's what the Twins have done with the Bell signing and what they have coming up in the pipeline very soon (Walker Jenkins, E-Rod, Gabriel Gonzalez).  Wallner would have been an excellent option for DH.  But they signed Bell who shouldn't play more than 10 games at 1B (making Bell a switch hitting, full time DH).

Almost every pitcher on the Twins had a better ERA when compared with FIP.  Larnach and Wallner are not good OF.  They have poor range, so many balls that should be caught fall in.  Wallner is a star in OPS, but OPS tends to overrate guys like him who crush the ball when they hit it, but whiff far too often.  

A guy who projects to hit fewer HR's but make consistent contact and still supply power like Gabe Gonzalez is a better DH option (to me) than matt Wallner.  With Jenkins, E-Rod and Gabe coming soon, I'd like to capitalize on a team desperate for power (say the White Sox) and make a trade that could bring back a Teel or Quero to be our #1 catcher post Ryan Jeffers.

I think Wallner HAS talent.  But I think the Twins should use that allure of 30 HR power to fill a void that is sure to come once Jeffers is gone and Tait isn't ready.  

[arby58]

1 hour ago, TopGunn#22 said:

A guy who projects to hit fewer HR's but make consistent contact and still supply power like Gabe Gonzalez is a better DH option (to me) than matt Wallner.  With Jenkins, E-Rod and Gabe coming soon, I'd like to capitalize on a team desperate for power (say the White Sox) and make a trade that could bring back a Teel or Quero to be our #1 catcher post Ryan Jeffers.

I think Wallner HAS talent.  But I think the Twins should use that allure of 30 HR power to fill a void that is sure to come once Jeffers is gone and Tait isn't ready.  

IF the Twins could get Teel for Wallner, I would make that trade - my guess is they could only get Quero, and I'm not feeling the love as much in that case. While you don't like OPS, WAR (which includes fielding metrics) still prefers Wallner over Bell, and the guys in AAA still have something to prove. As for catcher, I'd give Cardenas a good look in spring training and see how he does in AAA - he may be as good as Quero by mid-season.

[Parfigliano]

3 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

It's not disdain arby58, it's what the Twins have done with the Bell signing and what they have coming up in the pipeline very soon (Walker Jenkins, E-Rod, Gabriel Gonzalez).  Wallner would have been an excellent option for DH.  But they signed Bell who shouldn't play more than 10 games at 1B (making Bell a switch hitting, full time DH).

Almost every pitcher on the Twins had a better ERA when compared with FIP.  Larnach and Wallner are not good OF.  They have poor range, so many balls that should be caught fall in.  Wallner is a star in OPS, but OPS tends to overrate guys like him who crush the ball when they hit it, but whiff far too often.  

A guy who projects to hit fewer HR's but make consistent contact and still supply power like Gabe Gonzalez is a better DH option (to me) than matt Wallner.  With Jenkins, E-Rod and Gabe coming soon, I'd like to capitalize on a team desperate for power (say the White Sox) and make a trade that could bring back a Teel or Quero to be our #1 catcher post Ryan Jeffers.

I think Wallner HAS talent.  But I think the Twins should use that allure of 30 HR power to fill a void that is sure to come once Jeffers is gone and Tait isn't ready.  

Wallner hits solo HR.  Seldom HR with guy/guys on base.

[bean5302]

21 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

Wallner hits solo HR.  Seldom HR with guy/guys on base.

Has to have plate appearances with guys on base to hit home runs with guys on base... His OPS was higher with runners on than bases empty last year.

His BB rate was higher with runners on and RISP.
His K rate was lowest with RISP.

Pitchers did their best to pitch around Wallner because the rest of the lineup was terrible.

[Riverbrian]

Come opening day. No matter what the Twins do this off-season. 

I will be optimistic because you never know what happens in the game of baseball. 

I get that I have a certain amount of pessimism watching the off-season as it progresses but I'll be ready to give them a chance on opening day. 

Now... One place where I do have some optimism in regards to the Twins is the young starters. 

From a stuff standpoint. Matthews looks great on the mound. He's got stuff and I'm excited to see him get better and I think he will get better if he stays healthy. 

I really like what I see with Abel and Festa from a stuff standpoint. If they can stay healthy... I think they can become productive major league pitchers.

I've always like Bradley. Even when his numbers were down in Tampa... he had stuff that I could see paying off.

SWR has produced decent numbers. His stuff doesn't excite me but... my excitement doesn't matter if the numbers are decent. 

Matthews is the guy I rank #1 if I had to bet on a top ranked pitcher developing out of the 5 guys I just listed and I would place a bet on all 5.