López and Festa Give the Twins Reason for Optimism This Offseason

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of © Lon Horwedel-Imagn Images

The Minnesota Twins entered the offseason with more questions than answers surrounding their starting rotation. However, the team received an early wave of good news that could help stabilize things moving forward. President of baseball operations Derek Falvey shared positive updates on both Pablo Lopez and David Festa, signaling that two key arms are on track to enter spring training in good health.

Lopez is reportedly already fully recovered and preparing for a normal offseason routine, while Festa is expected to start throwing soon and should be ready for the start of camp. After an injury-filled 2025 season that forced both pitchers to miss significant time, their health will be a major storyline as the Twins plan for 2026.

Pablo Lopez’s Rebound Opportunity
When the Twins extended Lopez before the 2024 season, they envisioned him as a steady frontline starter to anchor the rotation for years to come. While multiple injuries disrupted his 2025 campaign, his performance when healthy reaffirmed Minnesota's optimism.

Lopez’s year was bookended by health issues, beginning with a hamstring strain in April and ending with a minor right forearm strain in late September. In between, a shoulder injury cost him much of the summer and led to a stint on the 60-day injured list. When he was on the mound, though, he looked every bit like the ace the Twins hoped for by posting a 2.74 ERA (156 ERA+) across 75 2/3 innings.

Some of his underlying metrics took a step back, including a career-low 93 Stuff+ rating and a drop in strikeout rate to 23.4% (down from 24.9% for his career). Those dips can be explained by the start-and-stop nature of his season, which disrupted his rhythm and mechanics. With a full, uninterrupted offseason ahead, the Twins expect Lopez to return to peak form and lead the rotation once again.

The 29-year-old remains under contract for two more years at a team-friendly $43 million. That deal makes him both a valuable trade chip and a stabilizing force should the Twins decide to keep him. Falvey and his staff will surely field calls from pitching-needy contenders this winter, but Lopez’s strong recent track record makes him just as appealing as a cornerstone piece for 2026.

Outlook for 2026: If Lopez stays healthy, he profiles as the leader of the pitching staff and a potential AL Cy Young contender. Expect him to handle 170-plus innings with strong command, high strikeout totals, and veteran leadership that will help guide a young pitching staff through a transitional year.

David Festa’s Chance to Claim a Rotation Spot
Festa’s first two seasons in the big leagues have been a mixed bag. The young right-hander has shown flashes of promise, including the ability to miss bats, but he’s also struggled with consistency. Through 117 2/3 innings at the major league level, he has posted a 5.12 ERA and a 4.27 FIP, numbers that reflect both his inexperience and his potential.

Festa missed the final month of 2025 with a minor shoulder issue, but the Twins are confident he’ll be fully ready for the start of spring training. His ability to stay on the field and refine his secondary pitches could determine whether he begins 2026 in the rotation or in the minors to refine his arsenal. His overall numbers are likely affected by his attempts to pitch through shoulder issues last season. 

Festa was only recently removed from being one of the team’s top prospects and still represents one of the more intriguing young arms in the organization. His fastball velocity and developing changeup give him a foundation to build upon, while his competitive demeanor has impressed coaches throughout his rise in the system. With the Twins leaning toward a youth movement, Festa will get a legitimate chance to earn a starting spot in a rotation that could also include Zebby Matthews, Taj Bradley, and Mick Abel.

Outlook for 2026: The Twins view 2026 as a key evaluation year for Festa. If he can translate his raw stuff into consistent command and efficiency, he has the potential to solidify himself as a potential playoff-caliber starter. Expect the team to give him a long look early in the season, even if growing pains continue to surface.

Rotation Picture Coming into Focus
The Twins’ pitching situation has been a puzzle for much of the past year, but healthy updates on Lopez and Festa help provide some clarity. If Lopez returns to form and Festa continues to develop, Minnesota could enter 2026 with a balanced mix of experience and youth on the mound.

How the rotation ultimately looks will depend heavily on the club’s offseason strategy. The front office may explore trades involving veteran starters like Lopez or Joe Ryan to restock the system, or they could keep their core intact to remain competitive in the American League Central. Either way, having both Lopez and Festa trending in the right direction gives the Twins a much-needed foundation to build upon.

As the offseason unfolds, optimism around the pitching staff feels justified. After a year of frustration and uncertainty, Minnesota’s rotation may finally be ready to turn the corner, one healthy arm at a time.

Will Lopez and Festa both be part of the team’s starting rotation on Opening Day? Leave a comment and start the discussion. 

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[Nshore]

I think Festa should be a candidate for the bullpen, similar to what the Dodgers did with Sasaki at the end of the year.

[Ricky Vaughn]

Festa's injury can not be considered minor. The pen is his best chance of remaining healthy.

[Cory Engelhardt]

1 hour ago, Nshore said:

I think Festa should be a candidate for the bullpen, similar to what the Dodgers did with Sasaki at the end of the year.

2nd on. I would be surprised if he is still im the rotation even during spring training

[DocBauer]

I really liked the potential Festa showed in 2024. For the most part, he took a step back last season, but his shoulder was seemingly never 100%. At least not past the first month or so when he went on the Saints IL with "tired arm" syndrom.

But so far, in what is still a SSS, he's had a tough time getting past the 5th inning. With his build, and with the shoulder issues he had last season, I really think his future is in the pen. I can easily see him as a late inning, power, high K arm and maybe a potential closer.

In theory, the rotation currently has options that include: Lopez, Ryan, Ober, SWR, Bradley, Matthews, Abel, Morris with Prielipp, Rojas, CJ Culpepper and others at least slightly behind them. And that's me assuming Lewis, Raya, and Klein all moving to a pen role.

There SHOULD be enough depth/talent to place Festa in the pen. And it just might be where he's beat suited.

 

[Eris]

32 minutes ago, Ricky Vaughn said:

Festa's injury can not be considered minor. The pen is his best chance of remaining healthy.

I agree with this. Thoracic Outlet Syndrome in a pitcher should not be considered a very minor injury—although this is the description that accompanied an article about Festa’s Botox treatment for the injury. 
 

 

[JD-TWINS]

I agree with the others here. Festa should be a AAA depth guy if not 100% healthy OR better option for Team is to use him in 7th/8th innings, 4 innings per week to help solidify the PEN & minimize his innings & keep him producing on the mound.

Lopez - SWR - Ober - Ryan are a solid core ……my assumption is Bradley gets the other spot to start the season. Abel’s pedigree tells me he’s the Top depth guy in St Paul. This leaves Matthews to be moved to back end of bullpen as the anchor…………I am open to trading young arms for a bat that steps in at 1B or Catcher.

Trading Lopez or Ryan “……..to restock the system…..” is not at all what’s needed. The Twins currently have the #2 rated farm system. The role of the Farm System is to develop players to help the Parent Club win ball games - that’s the goal. Team isn’t trying to get a gold star for having the best collection of “prospects.”

The rotation talent is in place! The C - 2B - 3B - CF & Corner OF spots are generally solid. Need to convert a couple guys into the Pen & sign 2-3 relievers. Need at least ONE FA bat (or via trade of pitching youth) that can positively contribute, not a prospect!

[Blyleven2011]

I didn't read past the headline of Lopez and Festa  ...

Who's to say Lopez is even with the club by spring training  , beware a trade is possible  ...

Sorry , just being realistic so I'm not disappointed if he is , do i want him traded , no i do not  ...

[thelanges5]

Festa to the bullpen is a good take. 

If Lopez and Ryan are not on the roster, then these guys (Pohlads/FO)  are not serious about competing. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

1 hour ago, Blyleven2011 said:

I didn't read past the headline of Lopez and Festa  ...

Who's to say Lopez is even with the club by spring training  , beware a trade is possible  ...

Sorry , just being realistic so I'm not disappointed if he is , do i want him traded , no i do not  ...

I am. It’s me. Lopez will be on the team in 2026.

Ryan on the other hand. 

[sweetmusicviola16]

1 hour ago, Blyleven2011 said:

I didn't read past the headline of Lopez and Festa  ...

Who's to say Lopez is even with the club by spring training  , beware a trade is possible  ...

Sorry , just being realistic so I'm not disappointed if he is , do i want him traded , no i do not  ...

I believe he is traded. That is part of Falvey's strategy in making a statement on the health of both Lopez and Festa.

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

I agree with the others here. Festa should be a AAA depth guy if not 100% healthy OR better option for Team is to use him in 7th/8th innings, 4 innings per week to help solidify the PEN & minimize his innings & keep him producing on the mound.

Lopez - SWR - Ober - Ryan are a solid core ……my assumption is Bradley gets the other spot to start the season. Abel’s pedigree tells me he’s the Top depth guy in St Paul. This leaves Matthews to be moved to back end of bullpen as the anchor…………I am open to trading young arms for a bat that steps in at 1B or Catcher.

Trading Lopez or Ryan “……..to restock the system…..” is not at all what’s needed. The Twins currently have the #2 rated farm system. The role of the Farm System is to develop players to help the Parent Club win ball games - that’s the goal. Team isn’t trying to get a gold star for having the best collection of “prospects.”

The rotation talent is in place! The C - 2B - 3B - CF & Corner OF spots are generally solid. Need to convert a couple guys into the Pen & sign 2-3 relievers. Need at least ONE FA bat (or via trade of pitching youth) that can positively contribute, not a prospect!

Festa may be best used in the bullpen. My guess is that gets decided after March and from there we can see what happens. Festa is pretty clearly among the 13 best pitchers in the Twins organization (imo).

The guys you mentioned in the rotation do make up a solid core and Matthews might get moved to the bullpen if all of the names remain the same. If the Twins trade a young arm, who do you think they can acquire?

The Twins are indeed rated as the #2 farm system in one publication, but one should also keep in mind that they are also rated as low as #15 in another. They have a good farm system in my opinion but Julien is the only guy to get votes for ROY in recent years. The polls are all over the place and we need to consider that when thinking about the value of our prospects if one suggests trading them.

When you suggest the team is, more or less, solid and only a few players are needed you don't forward any suggestions. You likely have some people in mind. I am curious to see all suggestions from anyone.

It is worth remembering that the Twins played roughly a 55 -60 win season after the July trades. This is the team they are currently rostering. A rebound and great play could result in as many as 75 wins and a similar product to what we watched in 2025 ..... or things could be worse.

I'm going to suggest change is needed. A half dozen trades does not bother me, nor does a payroll of $80M. I'm looking for talent. Festa in the bullpen is fine but I'm specifically wanting something different at C, 1B, 3B, SS, LF, RF, and DH. This could be via improved play, position change, or adding players from outside the current 40 person roster. I'm hoping for a better team, at least for viewing, in 2026.

[Blyleven2011]

16 minutes ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

I believe he is traded. That is part of Falvey's strategy in making a statement on the health of both Lopez and Festa.

Purging more salary is the most likely occurrence for a team that doesn't want to contend ....

Key word is doesn't  ....

I don't like it anymore than the next guy , just being realistic and don't want to be very disappointed if it does happen  ...

Ryan is gone for the right offer , again many have said if these players want to leave , who would blame them , even buxton if he changed his mind I wouldn't blame him  ...

We could look worse in the spring than an expansion team if the 3 mentioned above plus jeffrrs are traded ...

Everything is a possibilitywith this organization ...

I hope Cody Engelhardt is right Lopez is on the roster cone spring  ...

[DocBauer]

3 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Festa may be best used in the bullpen. My guess is that gets decided after March and from there we can see what happens. Festa is pretty clearly among the 13 best pitchers in the Twins organization (imo).

The guys you mentioned in the rotation do make up a solid core and Matthews might get moved to the bullpen if all of the names remain the same. If the Twins trade a young arm, who do you think they can acquire?

The Twins are indeed rated as the #2 farm system in one publication, but one should also keep in mind that they are also rated as low as #15 in another. They have a good farm system in my opinion but Julien is the only guy to get votes for ROY in recent years. The polls are all over the place and we need to consider that when thinking about the value of our prospects if one suggests trading them.

When you suggest the team is, more or less, solid and only a few players are needed you don't forward any suggestions. You likely have some people in mind. I am curious to see all suggestions from anyone.

It is worth remembering that the Twins played roughly a 55 -60 win season after the July trades. This is the team they are currently rostering. A rebound and great play could result in as many as 75 wins and a similar product to what we watched in 2025 ..... or things could be worse.

I'm going to suggest change is needed. A half dozen trades does not bother me, nor does a payroll of $80M. I'm looking for talent. Festa in the bullpen is fine but I'm specifically wanting something different at C, 1B, 3B, SS, LF, RF, and DH. This could be via improved play, position change, or adding players from outside the current 40 person roster. I'm hoping for a better team, at least for viewing, in 2026.

Here are some suggestions I've presented in different threads:

FA backup catcher for $3M.

FA 1B, I'd prefer O'Hearn but I don't know if we can get him for $8-10M

THREE veteran, FA, BP arms for around $12M. 

The payroll is around $120M. And while that's way lower than it should be, it's lower than where 2025 started, and lower than where it actually ended. 

And none of the top prospects are blocked.

[tony&rodney]

37 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

Here are some suggestions I've presented in different threads:

FA backup catcher for $3M.

FA 1B, I'd prefer O'Hearn but I don't know if we can get him for $8-10M

THREE veteran, FA, BP arms for around $12M. 

The payroll is around $120M. And while that's way lower than it should be, it's lower than where 2025 started, and lower than where it actually ended. 

And none of the top prospects are blocked.

I appreciate you putting your suggestions out.

[DocBauer]

14 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

I appreciate you putting your suggestions out.

I'm remaining an optimist until they give me reason not to be.

With the manager and coaching changes, with talent on hand, with 4 top 10 position player prospects probably making their debut at some point this season...and a couple others who might...I just don't believe in "giving up". The OP is strictly referencing Lopez and Festa's health as reasons for optimism. I just happen to see more reasons than those two.

[#3Killer]

So tired a depressed by all of you who are so positive Ryan will be traded! Here’s a scenario: pull him in for a conference- share your vision to bring a World Series title to MN - then sign him to an extension! Never trade quality starting pitching. Let’s get him on board!

[old nurse]

5 hours ago, #3Killer said:

So tired a depressed by all of you who are so positive Ryan will be traded! Here’s a scenario: pull him in for a conference- share your vision to bring a World Series title to MN - then sign him to an extension! Never trade quality starting pitching. Let’s get him on board!

There is a very prolifically posting group of people who see things in a negative light. At the trade deadline and again this off season, Falvey has said the only way Ryan is traded is if they were blown away. 

[old nurse]

10 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

Purging more salary is the most likely occurrence for a team that doesn't want to contend ....

Key word is doesn't  ....

I don't like it anymore than the next guy , just being realistic and don't want to be very disappointed if it does happen  ...

Ryan is gone for the right offer , again many have said if these players want to leave , who would blame them , even buxton if he changed his mind I wouldn't blame him  ...

We could look worse in the spring than an expansion team if the 3 mentioned above plus jeffrrs are traded ...

Everything is a possibilitywith this organization ...

I hope Cody Engelhardt is right Lopez is on the roster cone spring  ...

There are opinions out there that they don’t want to contend. If that were the case Ryan would have been traded to Boston for whatever they wanted to give the Twins at the last trade deadline , The report from other sources was the Twins wanted one of Duran or other corner outfielders, a top prospect and another prospect. That is not trading to not contend the next year

[Doctor Gast]

Pablo is a great SP., We'll never get in return what he's worth, so he shouldn't be traded. IMO, he'll have a very good year & he's a good mentor. 

Festa should not be considered as a SP, With the mess in the BP we need all the help in the BP as we can get. He should be a 1 inning RP, then long relief, then spot start, then slowly eased into the SP role. His condition takes a long time to recover 100%. Twins need to be very patient with him in his comeback.

[sweetmusicviola16]

8 hours ago, #3Killer said:

So tired a depressed by all of you who are so positive Ryan will be traded! Here’s a scenario: pull him in for a conference- share your vision to bring a World Series title to MN - then sign him to an extension! Never trade quality starting pitching. Let’s get him on board!

If he's not traded hopefully Hawkins can help to get him on track again. This is a guy who's heart was cut out in July and it showed after. 

[Fatbat]

It will be nice to watch Lopez again if he is healthy for a full season. Festa will probs be moved to the bullpen unless he somehow is better with the secondary pitches.  Ryan isn’t going anywhere. We got alot of depth on depth and some of them will be in the pen.  I doubt there will be any significant trade until we get closer to July.

[rv78]

2 hours ago, old nurse said:

There is a very prolifically posting group of people who see things in a negative light. At the trade deadline and again this off season, Falvey has said the only way Ryan is traded is if they were blown away. 

Problem is......... it doesn't take much to blow Falvey away. Mahle? DeSclafani? Insert washed up player name here.

[old nurse]

16 minutes ago, rv78 said:

Problem is......... it doesn't take much to blow Falvey away. Mahle? DeSclafani? Insert washed up player name here.

Wow, way to ignore what he said about Ryan, what Mahle’s record was before the trade annd very little was given up to get him,  and that DeScaffini was a throw in to get Gonzales who was a top 100 prospect at that time.. Just totally ignore. 

[Coach Wheels]

15 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

I didn't read past the headline of Lopez and Festa  ...

Who's to say Lopez is even with the club by spring training  , beware a trade is possible  ...

Sorry , just being realistic so I'm not disappointed if he is , do i want him traded , no i do not  ...

If all these guys are still on the roster come.Opening Day, the rotation, in my head, looks like this:

Ryan, Lopez, Abel, Ober, and Bradley

Bullpen guys would be SWR, Festa, Mathews, and whoever Falvey decides to pick off the scrap. Guessing Topa is still one of us but you'll need a bullpen of 9 guys I'd imagine

[Whitey333]

Im sorry but I am one of those on the more pessimistic side.  They didn't trade Ryan to Boston mainly because Boston got in on trade talks with Twins way too late.  Rumors continue out of Boston that they will make every attempt to get Ryan.  Mostly involving prospects.  Lopez is a very good pitcher but if they really aren't plan on on contending I can't see why they keep him and his 21.6 million salary for 2026.  All Indications are the salary dump will continue this off season.  There isn't as much talent on this team as people think IMO.  I think the young prospects have been grossly mis managed by the organization.

[old nurse]

10 minutes ago, Coach Wheels said:

If all these guys are still on the roster come.Opening Day, the rotation, in my head, looks like this:

Ryan, Lopez, Abel, Ober, and Bradley

Bullpen guys would be SWR, Festa, Mathews, and whoever Falvey decides to pick off the scrap. Guessing Topa is still one of us but you'll need a bullpen of 9 guys I'd imagine

Pitching staff is limited to 13 until September 1

[Coach Wheels]

1 minute ago, old nurse said:

Pitching staff is limited to 13 until September 1

You can fix my math for me. Pick 8 for the bullpen, I'll stand with my rotation

[old nurse]

Just now, Coach Wheels said:

You can fix my math for me. Pick 8 for the bullpen, I'll stand with my rotation

Stand where you like, your opinion on who is in the bullpen is your opinion 

[Otaknam]

The one reason for optimism for 2026 is the depth in starting pitching, though much of it is unproven. They are in a rebuild phase, so I think the team will start 2026 with Ryan and Lopez in the rotation, but look to trade them to the highest bidder before the August deadline. If they are pitching well and  healthy, both would bring a haul of top prospects.