When Will It Happen Again? Predicting the Twins’ Next World Series Window

[Woof Bronzer]

4 hours ago, Coach Wheels said:

World Series? The Dodgers payroll is $350 million, the Blue Jays payroll is $255 million. Those numbers won't come down and Twins ownership can't sustain $140 million. The days of small markets winning championships is done. No salary cap equals no chance for small market teams

Well the good news is the Twins aren't a small market team, and a team from a similar sized market (Arizona) made the WS two years ago.  

[sweetmusicviola16]

With Pohlad's owning the team and Falvey running the team a WS is not even something to consider.

[Sjoski]

 

From 1885 to 1991.

6 of 7 AL champions during that stretch came from modest media markets—Kansas City (1), Oakland (3), and Minnesota (2)—proving that smart scouting, player development, and team chemistry could outshine payroll. But those days are long gone.

Today’s postseason landscape is dominated by big-budget franchises with deep pockets and national reach, leaving small-market contenders scrambling to compete in a system that no longer favors parity.

 

[old nurse]

The Dodgers have been to 5 of the last 9 World Series with a payroll that is 100 to 200 million more than the Twins. Thinking that a different owner is going to come in and spending that kind of money is pure fantasy.  Also note they haven’t won them all

 It is hard to say when the team will have the harmonic convergence of talent needed to get to the World Series. With the extended playoffs it really takes having 4 quality starters come through. 2023 was their shot. Unfortunately by playoff time, Ober and Ryan were worn down.  The team did not have a couple of the average players come up big 

[Woof Bronzer]

31 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

Offensive might still is the best bet to building a true contender. Doesn't need to be pure power, but it needs to be run scoring ability. 

I'd prioritize pitching over offense, but otherwise agree.  Outhitting your opponent has a much stronger correlation to winning this postseason than outhomering them.  Which says that the ability to score runs in a variety of ways is more important than the ability to hit home runs.  

[ashbury]

"What’s that?  Ah – The World Series?! Don’t talk about – The World Series?! You kiddin’ me?! The World Series?! I just hope we can win 90 games! Another 90 games!"

 

[Sjoski]

4 minutes ago, Woof Bronzer said:

Well the good news is the Twins aren't a small market team, and a team from a similar sized market (Arizona) made the WS two years ago.  

Totally agree...but the Twins act like a small market team, and the AZ appearance is far more rare than common, but it can happen.....still more rare than a Vikings playoff win. 

[NYCTK]

10 minutes ago, Woof Bronzer said:

Well the good news is the Twins aren't a small market team, and a team from a similar sized market (Arizona) made the WS two years ago.  

And a team from a much smaller market won the most games in the league and made the LCS. 

And the Padres in a similarly sized market have been one of the most exciting teams in the league over the last 4 seasons. 

And the Mariners are in a similarly sized market and were about an inch away from making the World Series this year. 

People complaining about payroll or market size is so boring. 

[LastOnePicked]

I don't think there's any way to supplement the roster to make a winner. As many have noted, the time for that approach was two offseasons ago.

Now, the focus just has to be on building the scouting and coaching infrastructure for a winning club. Focus, attitude, fundamentals. Other teams are going to beat the Twins a lot over the next four years. I just don't want to keep seeing the Twins beat themselves.

[tony&rodney]

Not to be a downer, but has everyone forgotten that MLB front offices were deep in collusion during both Twins runs in 1987 and 1991. Players like Andre Dawson, Jack Morris, and many others weren't even offered contracts until late in the offseason when numerous players agreed to sign well below market contracts. The owners admitted guilt and paid billions in fines. Are we waiting for help again?

Aggressive moves, success from several prospects, and lucky drafts could make the Twins back to relevance in as soon as 2-4 years.

[h2oface]

5 hours ago, Coach Wheels said:

World Series? The Dodgers payroll is $350 million, the Blue Jays payroll is $255 million. Those numbers won't come down and Twins ownership can't sustain $140 million. The days of small markets winning championships is done. No salary cap equals no chance for small market teams

You are not counting the luxury tax being paid that is just under $144. So about $500 million, not 350. CBT total estimated to be $393. The Dodgers pay more luxury tax than the Twins total Team salary. 

[h2oface]

It won’t matter to anyone reading this article now, as they will ALL be dead before it happens. 

[nicksaviking]

5 hours ago, Coach Wheels said:

World Series? The Dodgers payroll is $350 million, the Blue Jays payroll is $255 million. Those numbers won't come down and Twins ownership can't sustain $140 million. The days of small markets winning championships is done. No salary cap equals no chance for small market teams

Agree, except that it's not the salary cap the Twins need to win a World Series, it's the salary floor they need raised. To within 90% of the cap, just like every other pro league.

They need to be forced to spend; either with their funds or funds from the large markets. Unless that happens, the Twins winning the World Series is no more likely than The University of Memphis winning the College Football Championship. Sure, it's possible, but we're way to close to Miracle on Ice historic underdog territory.

[The_Phantom]

5 hours ago, Coach Wheels said:

World Series? The Dodgers payroll is $350 million, the Blue Jays payroll is $255 million. Those numbers won't come down and Twins ownership can't sustain $140 million. The days of small markets winning championships is done. No salary cap equals no chance for small market teams

Salary caps don't work. NFL has a cap and has horrendous championship parity. A lot of that has to do with salary cap manipulation. Much like the deal Ohtani took being luxury tax manipulation, he would do something similar to play for the dodgers if a cap were in place. He can get money elsewhere from endorsements. It happens all the time. And players taking below market value to get championships that will get them endorsements also won't go to small market teams. They want eyes on them

[Major League Ready]

16 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Agree, except that it's not the salary cap the Twins need to win a World Series, it's the salary floor they need raised. To within 90% of the cap, just like every other pro league.

They need to be forced to spend; either with their funds or funds from the large markets. Unless that happens, the Twins winning the World Series is no more likely than The University of Memphis winning the College Football Championship. Sure, it's possible, but we're way to close to Miracle on Ice historic underdog territory.

I keep hearing this but there is no way in hell it ever happens.  The small market teams would be losing $100M annually or the large market teams would need to give away an additional $250M in revenue.  The value of their franchises would be cut in half.  That's not happening.  The only way they could make payroll more equitable is a salary cap that would significantly reduce the total dollars paid to players and that's not happening either. 

[TwinsChupacabra]

1. Without an ownership change: 0 percent

2. Without a complete change in management/GM: o percent

3. Without a change in MLB salary cap rules: 0 percent

I know in my heart, it will never happen.  It really bothers me that my kids will never see the joy of a championship that I got to see.  They are well versed in the MN curse, which has only grown stronger over time.  But don't get me wrong; it won't be the curse that eliminates the chance of a championship, it will be the Twins constant lack of competence and the league's refusal to adapt to the future.   

[nicksaviking]

9 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

I keep hearing this but there is no way in hell it ever happens.  The small market teams would be losing $100M annually or the large market teams would need to give away an additional $250M in revenue.  The value of their franchises would be cut in half.  That's not happening.  The only way they could make payroll more equitable is a salary cap that would significantly reduce the total dollars paid to players and that's not happening either. 

Yes it can happen, every other league managed this. This league is just historically stubborn and deferential to the top end owners. Jerry Jones was adamant the NFL wouldn't force the Cowboys to revenue share, and that lunatic thinks he's an actual god. The 20 have-not teams need to merely vote to do it and tell the Yankees and Dodgers they can get on board or get the hell out and start their own league.

Anyway, they'll either do it or watch the league die. Or split into two leagues. The Twins and Reds can then play for the championship of the low level league that nobody will watch.

[jorgenswest]

The 162 games matter. Next season matters. I care more about having a competitive team every year than a contender for the World Series window. The Twins can be a competitive team next year. They need Ryan and Lopez to be competitive. There will come a time to trade them as Burnes was traded but that should be when there is one season of control left. These two years are the sweet spot of Ryan’s contract. He has enough experience to be near his peak. His salary for this year is not prohibitive at all.

[Doc Lenz]

I like our GM better than the Vikings GM.

why won’t they bring up players like Culpepper, Jenkins and Houston etc.  Worked for Merrill (Padres) Churio ( Brewers) let them play’

[Major League Ready]

14 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Yes it can happen, every other league managed this. This league is just historically stubborn and deferential to the top end owners. Jerry Jones was adamant the NFL wouldn't force the Cowboys to revenue share, and that lunatic thinks he's an actual god. The 20 have-not teams need to merely vote to do it and tell the Yankees and Dodgers they can get on board or get the hell out and start their own league.

Anyway, they'll either do it or watch the league die. Or split into two leagues. The Twins and Reds can then play for the championship of the low level league that nobody will watch.

Aren't we ignoring the obvious.  Is league revenue shrinking or increasing.  It's been increasing at 9% year or year.  That pretty good all things considered.  Are the small markets viable financially?  Of course they are.  They are talking about expansion into more modest size markets. 

I am the biggest proponent here of reducing the inequity, but this seems really hyperbolic to me.  The league is not dying, and they won't die if they don't do what we think is fair.  The league has allowed this to happen because dominance in big markets is actually good for revenue production as long as teams like the Brewers, Guardians, and Rays provide just enough hope that it can be done on a budget.

[old nurse]

2 hours ago, Woof Bronzer said:

Well the good news is the Twins aren't a small market team, and a team from a similar sized market (Arizona) made the WS two years ago.  

Arizona had a much larger local television contract. Amazing what an extra 30-40 million cash do for a team. 

[mluebker]

6 hours ago, lunemann said:

3-5 years after the Pohlad family doesn't own the team anymore. Otherwise, likely never.

You beat me to it!

I'd maybe add "once they start actually having regular position players, not a roster full of jacks-of-all-trades rotating around the field."

[jorgenswest]

17 minutes ago, Doc Lenz said:

I like our GM better than the Vikings GM.

why won’t they bring up players like Culpepper, Jenkins and Houston etc.  Worked for Merrill (Padres) Churio ( Brewers) let them play’

I think they have been reasonably aggressive with those three. Chourio and Merrill are in a different tier from those three. There are very few that get a FV60 from Fangraphs. Chourio and Merrill did. The Twins three have not been viewed as that tier prospect by Fangraphs.

A little more about the journeys of Merrill and and Chourio…

Merrill was drafted in 2021 and debuted in 2024 after 987 minor and fall league plate appearances.

Chourio was signed in 2021 and debuted in 2024 after 1469 minor and foreign league plate appearances.

Jenkins was drafted in 2023. He has 854 plate appearances. So far he has reasonably matched Merrill even arriving in AAA faster than Merrill. I would love to see him this year. 

[KirbyDome89]

3 hours ago, NYCTK said:

They saw the writing on the wall regarding Burnes, and cut ties with him at the right time

Burnes was great in Baltimore last year. He was great again to start this season before the elbow injury. I very much doubt the Brewers' FO foresaw TJ surgery years down the line.

[NYCTK]

51 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Burnes was great in Baltimore last year. He was great again to start this season before the elbow injury. I very much doubt the Brewers' FO foresaw TJ surgery years down the line.

Oh, I don't mean to imply that. Instead that he was no longer an ace, just a good #2. 

His drop in stuff post 2022 was pretty noticeable. 

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, mluebker said:

You beat me to it!

I'd maybe add "once they start actually having regular position players, not a roster full of jacks-of-all-trades rotating around the field."

Do you think the Pohlad's are dictating that strategy?  

BTW ... After the deadline, Lewis played strictly 1B and Lee was the everyday SS.  Keaschall played 2B and Clemens mostly played 1B.  Wallner and Larnach played corner OF.  Jeffers and other played catcher.  Martin was mostly in LF.  

[IndianaTwin]

7 hours ago, EGFTShaw said:

<snip>
No one, and I mean no one, had money on the Twins winning the World Series in 1987 or 1991.

<snip>

I don't bet, but for the record, I did change my answering machine during Spring Training 1991 to be telling people the Twins were going to be very good and going to the WS because of the additions of Pags, Chili Davis, Jack Morris and others.

I should have saved the recording. And I should have bet.

[tony&rodney]

41 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

the additions of Pags, Chili Davis, Jack Morris and others.

Without collusion the only player added would have been Pags. Whether we like it or not, owners and their front office tools control the rosters. Money.

The next CBA may disappoint many people. There are not 16 teams losing money. Quite the contrary, most teams are making moola. Convincing owners to give up their cash cows and simultaneously watch their franchise values dip while lose money also sounds much more difficult than the Twins winning the World Series in 2026. I doubt a lockout extends into May. It would be far easier to coerce the wealthy clubs to share the revenues not being shared at this time. That might be difficult too.

[Nshore]

Watching the WS and a great Blue Jays team go toe to toe with the LA Dodgers (the best team money can buy) it's very hard to believe the Twins beat them in the playoffs just a couple of years ago.  So things can change fast.  But looking at the Twins' 40 man roster - they obviously have an awful lot of work to do - and quite possibly weak ownership support to do it.   So....their next WS window will come when there are flying cars.

[dxpavelka]

17 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

A lot of things would have to break their way. But let's say Jenkins gets to his potential like we think we can AND the Twins luck into the first pick with Roch Cholowsky. If Lewis can get back to his 2023 into most of 2024 self along with them, that's the makings of a good core no?

I will admit I'm an optimist.

MOST championships are won by teams that have  a season where a lot of things break their way.  However, only one team gets the trophy each yar.