Twins 4, Rangers 0: Byron Buxton's Sunshine Season and Bailey Ober's Roadmap

[Matthew Trueblood]

Image courtesy of © Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

 

Box Score
Starting Pitcher: Bailey Ober - 6 IP, 2 H, 1 BB, 5 SO (78 pitches, 52 strikes)
Home Runs: Byron Buxton 2 (34)
Top 3 WPA: Ober (.387), Buxton (.182), Kody Funderburk (.106)
Win Probability Chart (per FanGraphs)

We always list the top three win probability players for Twins wins, but this is what you call a classic two-man win. Byron Buxton hit two long home runs, and we're going to talk a lot about them. Bailey Ober worked six stellar innings to put a positive punctuation mark on a largely negative season. The bullpen did its job, too, but this win was all about two Twins veterans whose fortunes were among the biggest stories of the season, and who each did something remarkable as they close out the campaign.

Let's start with the starter. Ober was great Thursday, teasing and frustrating the Rangers lineup (admittedly, a decimated one, at the end of a lost season and in a pitcher-friendly park) with a marvelous display of touch and feel. His fastball sat around 89, and dipped below 87 a time or two, but still, he was great.

Back on August 20, Ober's velocity went over a cliff. It never came back. He's been down a full mile-per-hour, relative to his previous level, for the last five weeks.

In that very game, though, Ober pitched 5 2/3 innings of three-hit, two-run ball against a tough Athletics lineup, striking out seven. After the game that night, two reporters asked Ober how concerned he was about the dip in his velocity, and he was clear: he wasn't, at all. In fact, he emphasized repeatedly that he had feel for moving the ball in both directions and landing his secondary offerings where he wanted to, so in his own opinion, he had above-average stuff that day. It just didn't come in the form of his best possible velocity. 

That's a legitimate stance. As much as the modern game has fallen in love with velocity, if a pitcher like Ober has the capacity to throw their fastball with good carry, one or more breaking balls, and a changeup with good depth, they don't need to throw very hard to have success. The rub, of course, lies in the fact that it's very hard to maintain the feel and the command to do all of that—a difficulty Ober ran into even during an improved stretch to finish his season.

On Thursday, though, he had the good stuff—not heat, but the rest of it. To visualize that, we can set his pitch movement plot from his previous start (a rough, six-run effort against Cleveland in which he couldn't miss bats and had just one strikeout) side-by-side with the same chart for this one.

He changed speeds on his slider throughout the game, manipulating it into what sometimes looked like a true slider and other times played more like a cutter. He also had great depth on his changeup. Despite topping out at 90.1 miles per hour, Ober had good stuff Thursday. In all, he had four starts like this one in his final seven for 2025. This is the roadmap for a successful 2026 for Ober, which the Twins need badly.

Meanwhile, Buxton gave him all the support he needed—and more. He didn't just hit two home runs (one leading off the game and one with two men on in the top of the eighth, putting the contest on ice). He hit two carbon copies, of each other and of his homer the previous night. Three times in two days, he hit a ball 110 miles per hour—not 109, not 111—at a launch angle between 22 and 24 degrees, out of the spacious park in Arlington to something very like dead center field. It felt like watching a different sport, because in baseball, you hardly ever see a hitter do the same big thing so many times in such a short span. Even when a guy has a two-homer game, one will go to the opposite field, or he'll hit one no-doubter and one wall-scraper. A three-single day will probably include one grounder and one line drive, rather than the same hit on a loop. Buxton got so locked in during this set that it felt akin to watching Steph Curry come up the floor and hit a logo three—and then another, and another, all within a few minutes of one another, all because he could feel that he was dialed in and the other team had no way to stop him.

Buxton now has 34 home runs this year, to go with his 24 stolen bases. Even as it takes its final, gasping breaths, his season gets more impressive. Only six players have hit more home runs in a season in a Twins uniform than Buxton has this year.

Those of you with a keen eye for a Twins history nugget know that Bob Allison and Josh Willingham each topped out at 35, exactly, so a homer this weekend would draw Buxton level with them. It's a remarkable story, not only because it's such a relief that he's been able to stay on the field this year, but because he's dominated so thoroughly during the time he's had. Even in this relatively healthy season, he's made two trips to the injured list and can only top out at 127 games played. Yet, he's slugged a total of 62 extra-base hits. Watching him get hot one last time, as he occupies the leadoff spot on a daily basis and shows passion for the endeavor even with the team long eliminated, has been a delight.

Buxton is also up to 61 Barrels this season, according to Statcast. Those are batted balls that turn into extra-base hits more often than not, and very often, they're homers. In the 11-season Statcast Era, only Nelson Cruz (who had 65 in 2019) has produced more of those high-quality batted balls than Buxton, who drew level with Josh Donaldson's 2021 with his two Barrels Thursday. Add in his early defensive heroics and his 24 steals without being caught, and it's fair to say that Buxton is having one of the best seasons in Twins history. Where, exactly, he ranks is an argument for another day, but Thursday was a reminder of just how explosive he's been.

What's Next
Joe Ryan (13-9, 3.47 ERA) will try to arrest the tailspin his season has gone into since the trade deadline and reclaim the exciting tenor of his first half Friday night. He'll toe the rubber for the Twins in Philadelphia, where they'll take on the NL East champion Phillies and Aaron Nola (4-10, 6.46 ERA). First pitch is scheduled for 5:45 PM CT.

Postgame Interviews

 

Bullpen Usage Chart

	SUN	MON	TUE	WED	THU	TOT
Hatch	0	0	0	0	0	0
Adams	14	0	0	16	0	30
Sands	20	0	6	0	12	38
Funderburk	14	0	11	0	14	39
Laweryson	0	0	0	12	0	12
Cabrera	0	0	0	11	0	11
Ohl	9	0	0	0	20	29
Tonkin	0	0	0	0	0	0

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[the_brute_squad]

Ober's game, as described, is how pitcher's pitched for over a century. Those pitcher's threw complete games, topped 100 pitches, and had long careers. Yes, I know, there were still injuries and surgeries but I'm convinced when people look back at this time, it won't be considered the golden age of pitching.

[old nurse]

23 minutes ago, the_brute_squad said:

Ober's game, as described, is how pitcher's pitched for over a century. Those pitcher's threw complete games, topped 100 pitches, and had long careers. Yes, I know, there were still injuries and surgeries but I'm convinced when people look back at this time, it won't be considered the golden age of pitching.

These are the good old days for the youth of the current time. 

[old nurse]

So he ignores Funderburk. I am not sure if the author thought that any serious look at Funderburk was going to fins smoke and mirrors, there is going to be countless bullpen articles starting next week or he just goesn’t want to say anything nice to jinks him 

[Matthew Trueblood]

59 minutes ago, old nurse said:

So he ignores Funderburk. I am not sure if the author thought that any serious look at Funderburk was going to fins smoke and mirrors, there is going to be countless bullpen articles starting next week or he just goesn’t want to say anything nice to jinks him 

No offense to Funderburk at all, but there were two very interesting storylines of that game and neither had anything to do with him. :D

[William K Johnson]

We finally have seen a true "Buxton" season after all these years.   Is is asking too much to have a couple of more?

[jmlease1]

Good to have Ober finish the season on an upswing. Maybe people will stop talking about non-tendering him now? I still think he's going to need to find a little more velocity to have these kinds of performances more consistently next season, but hopefully he can get his body right in the offseason and get back to throwing 91mph consistently. I suspect he would have gone another inning but Rocco probably wanted to make sure he finished the season with a good performance and potentially a win, and I can't really argue with it.

Byron Buxton is just awesome. He's a truly great player, but also just one of the most exciting and fun Twins we've ever had. I hope we can put a competitive team around him next season, and I hope he's a Twin for life. Love that dude.

Funderburk may be pitching his way into a job next season. Don't think I'd be too comfortable with him as the sole LHP in the bullpen, but he's been quite good in the second half, and it's been good to see him go every other day lately and answer the bell.

[old nurse]

19 minutes ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

No offense to Funderburk at all, but there were two very interesting storylines of that game and neither had anything to do with him. :D

Since his return at the trade deadline Funderburk has pitched to an ERA. Of 0.78 and a FIP of 2.38. Considering how bad his first half was, that should also be of interest

[DJL44]

I would like to see Twins Daily actively campaigning to get Byron Buxton some MVP votes. I don’t think he is the overall MVP but I also think Raleigh and Judge will clean up all the #1 and #2 votes.

Buxton has an MVP bonus in his contract and I would rather see the money in his pocket than in the pocket of one of Carl Pohlad’s grandchildren.

[DJL44]

If Ober was a lefty, writers would call him crafty. Great job today, but when he has a bad day he’s a pinball machine. Very little room for error.

[Whitey333]

I've been a long time critic of Buxton.  I will admit he has had a great season.  He's been one of the very few Twins to follow this year.  Problem is it took Buxton 10 years, yes 10 years to have this great season.  Almost as much time as hes been kn the injured list lol.  It's so sad for him that it comes in a season where the Twins are so bad and who's competitive future is almost non existent.  Ober pitched well Thirsday but he has had a horrible season.  I'd like to see Ryan bounce back and have a great start against the Phillies.  He's been pretty poor the past 7 starts.

[Blyleven2011]

Nice to win a series , Texas is a better team but like I stated yesterday they are beatable and the twins managed to prove me right ...

Ober pitched a good 6 innings  , for those that are concerned Ober will be a non tendered candidate  , IMO the twins will Sign him ( and then possibly trade him ) , though his velocity is down he still pitches innings and they need pitchers to eat innings  , Hendricks of cubbies and now with angels had success with the cubbies as a soft tosser  ....

Buxton leads the day with a 2 homer game and all 4 rbi's  , great production from him today  , glad it wasn't a rest day , Rocco usually keeps his best hitter out after a game like buxton has   , but i seriously doubt it with only 3 games left  ...

Sure would like to beat the Phillies and finish the season strong ...

Will be nice to see Bader and Duran playing  ...

[Doctor Gast]

IMO, Buxton's big injury bug is behind him, The injury bug where you can't recover over the offseason. Buxton has been healthy entering the offseason, which is a good sign for the following season. Too bad Twins unloaded a good chunk of the '23 core. Ober is a very good SP, when healthy is dependable. I have mentioned this before, I was ready to give up on Funderburk. But He has proven himself to me since the deadline. He should be a dependable RP next year. I have no idea what he has done.

Mahle has been a pretty good SP for TX. He had a good game against us with only a leadoff HR. Wish him well

[Permanent Twins Fan]

An unsung hero over the last couple of weeks is Pierson Ohl. I know his inning today wasn't of much importance, but he has been great for the Twins since transferring to the bullpen. He hasn't allowed a run since Sept. 9. It is really nice to see Bailey Ober have a good start. There were three good starting pitcher performances this series 

[IndianaTwin]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

I would like to see Twins Daily actively campaigning to get Byron Buxton some MVP votes. I don’t think he is the overall MVP but I also think Raleigh and Judge will clean up all the #1 and #2 votes.

Buxton has an MVP bonus in his contract and I would rather see the money in his pocket than in the pocket of one of Carl Pohlad’s grandchildren.

And speaking of bonuses, the second homer was a great way to celebrate his 533rd plate appearance, pocketing him an extra $500k in incentives. 

[laloesch]

1 hour ago, William K Johnson said:

We finally have seen a true "Buxton" season after all these years.   Is is asking too much to have a couple of more?

Hopefully he starts a string of good seasons in the latter half of his contract.  Unfortunately, they will be wasted on a bad team, but sometimes that's how the ball drops.

[laloesch]

30 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

IMO, Buxton's big injury bug is behind him, The injury bug where you can't recover over the offseason. Buxton has been healthy entering the offseason, which is a good sign for the following season. Too bad Twins unloaded a good chunk of the '23 core. Ober is a very good SP, when healthy is dependable. I have mentioned this before, I was ready to give up on Funderburk. But He has proven himself to me since the deadline. He should be a dependable RP next year. I have no idea what he has done.

The problem is the rest of the lineup.  There weren't enough good pieces around him to have a consistent offense and let's be real here, Buxton has been up down up down his whole career with the Twins.  Correa was the same too.  That inconsistency and the lack of other key producing hitters around them is what sealed the deal.  It's unfortunate.

[Nashvilletwin]

Hate to say it, but it might be time to have the Correa chat with Buxton.  His value will never, ever be higher than it is right now.  Besides, it’s really only fair to him as well.

With this team clearly in full rebuild mode targeting ‘28 in reality (given the likely 2027 lockout), Byron deserves the option to be part of a winning team.  The suitors should be lined up around the block giving him plenty of options.

The sad truth is that we Twins fans will need to get our enjoyment out of watching developing young players in ‘26 and ‘27 (for however much baseball we might actually get to see that year).

There should be more than a gleam of sunlight though for ‘28 and beyond.  We will need to be patient though. The haul we should get for Lopez, Ryan and Buxton, coupled with a new manager, would help a ton.  

[Tjwalsh65]

2 hours ago, William K Johnson said:

We finally have seen a true "Buxton" season after all these years.   Is is asking too much to have a couple of more?

Four more like this and you might be able to talk about Cooperstown.

 

[mnfireman]

Love the game Buxton had AND the season we finally got from him. Am I wrong for wanting those 12 games he lost to the collision with "He who shall not be named" in May, 40-30 may have been reachable.

[TwinsDr2021]

3 hours ago, Whitey333 said:

I've been a long time critic of Buxton.  I will admit he has had a great season.  He's been one of the very few Twins to follow this year.  Problem is it took Buxton 10 years, yes 10 years to have this great season.  Almost as much time as hes been kn the injured list lol.  It's so sad for him that it comes in a season where the Twins are so bad and who's competitive future is almost non existent.  Ober pitched well Thirsday but he has had a horrible season.  I'd like to see Ryan bounce back and have a great start against the Phillies.  He's been pretty poor the past 7 starts.

Does 2017 not count? 140 games with a war of 5 and 18th in the MVP? 

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Hate to say it, but it might be time to have the Correa chat with Buxton.  His value will never, ever be higher than it is right now.  Besides, it’s really only fair to him as well.

With this team clearly in full rebuild mode targeting ‘28 in reality (given the likely 2027 lockout), Byron deserves the option to be part of a winning team.  The suitors should be lined up around the block giving him plenty of options.

The sad truth is that we Twins fans will need to get our enjoyment out of watching developing young players in ‘26 and ‘27 (for however much baseball we might actually get to see that year).

There should be more than a gleam of sunlight though for ‘28 and beyond.  We will need to be patient though. The haul we should get for Lopez, Ryan and Buxton, coupled with a new manager, would help a ton.  

I don't understand why anyone would give this front office 3 more seasons to try to win before they get fired. It is not that hard to rebuild. They aren't that much worse than Cleveland or Detroit.

[terrydactyls]

I'm in the Twin Cities for my 60th high school reunion.  So the Race To The Bottom will look a little different.

1. Minnesota      69-90

2. Pittsburgh.     69-90

3. Los Angeles.   67-92   Magic# 2

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Tjwalsh65 said:

Four more like this and you might be able to talk about Cooperstown.

It might take a little more. 4 more seasons like this and he's in the group with Willie Davis, Vada Pinson, Torii Hunter, Al Oliver, Dave Parker, Dale Murphy, and Andrew McCutchen.

[Tjwalsh65]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

It might take a little more. 4 more seasons like this and he's in the group with Willie Davis, Vada Pinson, Torii Hunter, Al Oliver, Dave Parker, Dale Murphy, and Andrew McCutchen.

Yes he might need a few more lesser years after that.     Might need longevity into his 40s

[Jeff K]

6 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

Good to have Ober finish the season on an upswing. Maybe people will stop talking about non-tendering him now? I still think he's going to need to find a little more velocity to have these kinds of performances more consistently next season, but hopefully he can get his body right in the offseason and get back to throwing 91mph consistently. I suspect he would have gone another inning but Rocco probably wanted to make sure he finished the season with a good performance and potentially a win, and I can't really argue with it.

Byron Buxton is just awesome. He's a truly great player, but also just one of the most exciting and fun Twins we've ever had. I hope we can put a competitive team around him next season, and I hope he's a Twin for life. Love that dude.

Funderburk may be pitching his way into a job next season. Don't think I'd be too comfortable with him as the sole LHP in the bullpen, but he's been quite good in the second half, and it's been good to see him go every other day lately and answer the bell.

Love that Buxton.  Regarding Funderburk, I admit, I did not think he belonged on the team.  He has made the most of his opportunities, especially subsequent to the trade deadline.  

[Jeff K]

4 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Hate to say it, but it might be time to have the Correa chat with Buxton.  His value will never, ever be higher than it is right now.  Besides, it’s really only fair to him as well.

With this team clearly in full rebuild mode targeting ‘28 in reality (given the likely 2027 lockout), Byron deserves the option to be part of a winning team.  The suitors should be lined up around the block giving him plenty of options.

The sad truth is that we Twins fans will need to get our enjoyment out of watching developing young players in ‘26 and ‘27 (for however much baseball we might actually get to see that year).

There should be more than a gleam of sunlight though for ‘28 and beyond.  We will need to be patient though. The haul we should get for Lopez, Ryan and Buxton, coupled with a new manager, would help a ton.  

I absolutely HATE this, but I can't say that you are wrong.  If they are unloading our top starting pitchers, then Buxton might want to move on as well.  But I sincerely hope this doesn't come to pass.

[The Great Hambino]

4 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Hate to say it, but it might be time to have the Correa chat with Buxton.  His value will never, ever be higher than it is right now.  Besides, it’s really only fair to him as well.

With this team clearly in full rebuild mode targeting ‘28 in reality (given the likely 2027 lockout), Byron deserves the option to be part of a winning team.  The suitors should be lined up around the block giving him plenty of options.

The sad truth is that we Twins fans will need to get our enjoyment out of watching developing young players in ‘26 and ‘27 (for however much baseball we might actually get to see that year).

There should be more than a gleam of sunlight though for ‘28 and beyond.  We will need to be patient though. The haul we should get for Lopez, Ryan and Buxton, coupled with a new manager, would help a ton.  

I get your overall point, but I think there's a much better chance of a mutually-beneficial extension to be worked out between the Twins and Buxton depending on how things shake out on the other side of the CBA negotiations.  When he's talked about wanting to be a Twin his whole career, I haven't gotten the sense that he plans to retire in 2028.  Also, I'm guessing they already had that type of conversation with him.  Don't know that for sure, just a hunch.

[Blyleven2011]

5 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

IMO, Buxton's big injury bug is behind him, The injury bug where you can't recover over the offseason. Buxton has been healthy entering the offseason, which is a good sign for the following season. Too bad Twins unloaded a good chunk of the '23 core. Ober is a very good SP, when healthy is dependable. I have mentioned this before, I was ready to give up on Funderburk. But He has proven himself to me since the deadline. He should be a dependable RP next year. I have no idea what he has done.

Mahle has been a pretty good SP for TX. He had a good game against us with only a leadoff HR. Wish him well

Yes funderburk has pitched well since the allstar game with a couple of clunkers , he had an awful start to the season and then was suffeling back and forth to AAA and I too was ready to give up on  him , keeping him there in AAA  ... 

Second season in arow for buxton going into off season healthy , I'll take that ...

Ober has been better in past seasons , this season hasn't gone as well , let's hope he gets the necessary treatment on that hip and ready to have a better season in 2026 with some velocity  ...

Mahle is a free agent I think after the season  ....

[Nashvilletwin]

3 hours ago, DJL44 said:

I don't understand why anyone would give this front office 3 more seasons to try to win before they get fired. It is not that hard to rebuild. They aren't that much worse than Cleveland or Detroit.

1. It’s only one year - 2026.  2027 is going to be a shortened season almost certainly if any baseball is played.

2. Regardless, there is NO WAY Falvey and Rocco deserve to be back and participate in any way in the rebuild.  If they are, then the chances that the rebuild will be a disaster are very high.