Matt Wallner or Travor Larnach?

[Alex Boxwell]

Image courtesy of Brad Rempel - Imagn Images

As fans, sometimes we lose sight of player development and forget that guys can make huge strides in the offseason and in season too. We get stuck in the thinking of “this is what they are”. Sometimes it rings true, but to young players, it’s an extremely unfair line of thinking. We like to point and declare how good a player is as fast as possible.

Pitching has become a lot more predictable. Being able to track spin rate, pitch shaping, and advanced scouting to know where and when to throw certain pitches gives insights into development and strategy. When it comes to hitting major league caliber pitching, there is still a moxy factor. Teams can track bat speed, players can train to increase exit velocity, but there are big pieces to developing a batter that are harder to bottle up and put a label on.

The Twins are in a precarious position with many bats that feel very vanilla, especially when paired with their (limited) defensive capabilities. Matt Wallner and Trevor Larnach are two big names for me heading into 2026. Wallner is a solo homer and a walk machine, but when it comes to hitting with runners in scoring position, he’s fallen short of what the Twins have needed him to be. There are some major holes in his swing, particularly with high spin, four-seam fastballs that are up in the zone.

Trevor Larnach seems to pick up the slack where Wallner falls short. Larnach has shown a knack for driving in a run with a base hit and flashing good power. The question then becomes, “Can he take a step forward in the OPS department by getting more hits or driving the ball more often?” I may have some bias towards Larnach since he and the OSU boys bounced me and the Gophers in the 2018 NCAA tournament, so he must be good… right?

In all seriousness, I think it’s more of a toss-up than people think. When big spots arise and Wallner gets pitched tough in the zone, it’s touch-and-go at times. The other wrinkle in this scenario: Walker Jenkins has reached Triple-A, which leads to another left-handed bat presumably getting into the mix next year. Entering 2026, the Twins have three very similar bats. Now, who has the best shot at getting better and taking the reins as a corner outfielder and will also hit in the middle of this order? Wallner is the best bet if you look at the numbers, but Larnach has some “it” factors and moxie that I love to bet on. He hit big homers in the college world series, and he has a knack for getting the hit when called upon.

Wallner possesses more trade value than Larnach because he looks better on paper. The move could be a Wallner trade to bring in a piece that has value and makes room for Jenkins if the Twins feel he’s ready in ‘26. It’s not a popular proposal but this front office isn’t afraid to make that kind of move. Bet on Larnach to take a step forward and rise to the occasion as a run producer, sell on what’s left of Wallner's trade value, and make room for the future of the franchise: Walker Jenkins.

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[darin617]

The Twins have too many left handed bats in the 2026 outfield mix. If I was one of them I would be begging them to work with one of them to learn to play 1st. Wallner has too big of arm to be moved to 1st. So it would be the best thing for Larnach to stick around.

[The Mad King]

Larnach to first and let Wallner ride it out in right. His arm is way more than replacement level. 

[mikelink45]

Dream on about Rodriguez and Jenkins in the OF which means Larnach and Wallner can be used in DH and 1B roles.  Solves a lot of issues.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

There is no Wallnach. Wallner and Larnach are not interchangeable.

[tony&rodney]

I'm hoping both finish the season on an absolute terrorizing run of home runs and doubles and are then traded for talented players in November. Wallner may have some value. Perhaps Larnach stays in the organization because the offers are not worth the paperwork and time. Both of these players only have some value in the DH hole.

[Patzky]

1 hour ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

There is no Wallnach. Wallner and Larnach are not interchangeable.

Larner?

[Nshore]

With their various weaknesses, Wallner and Larnach are both very mediocre to poor baseball players.  Wallner should be fighting for his job, and he had to be woken up from a nap and was picked off 2B yesterday.   The Twins should jettison them for whatever they can get and bring up some new guys.

[TheLeviathan]

Wallner feels like he still has upside.

Larnach does not.  I'm hoping Larnach is dealt for a reliever this offseason.

[DocBauer]

Despite some bizarre struggles this year, maybe due to his hamstring injury just throwing off his timing, I'm a believer in Wallner. I believe he's a much better HITTER based on his previous numbers. The good OB% and major power are real pluses. He's even improved against LHP over time to not completely stink in that area.

I like Larnach. But I like him more as a lower in the order bat. And he's shown time and again he's a platoon only hitter. He's also older and going to be more expensive. I still believe he, or packaged with a prospect, might be of interest to a team short of LH power and might bring something of decent value back.

The Twins aren't short of LH OF. They are short of QUALITY LH OF. While he wasn't used in any sort of capacity that might allow him to get in to any sort of hitting groove, Keirsey just isn't a ML hitter, or the Twins have already made up their mind. Outman is a 1 good year ML player. The jury remains out on the injured Roden. He's young enough...only a rookie this season with a couple hundred AB...that his good MILB numbers might yet translate. 

Jenkins should be very good, maybe even a star. Rodriguez has the talent to be very good as well, if his patience can be balanced with more aggressiveness...when appropriate...as ML pitchers will be far less forgiving than those in the minors. 

And there's also a few RH OF who might just about be ready to take the next step. There's also a CHANCE Keaschall ends up in LF, even though that's not the expectation at this time.

You make room for a Jenkins type of prospect. You hope Rodriguez takes the next step, but you also have to give him an opportunity. Wallner is, IMO, the better player than Larnach, younger, cheaper, with more upside. Ideally, he soon becomes the primary DH and a reserve corner OF. 

But yes, changes are coming. And I believe Larnach is the one going out.

[tony&rodney]

48 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

Despite some bizarre struggles this year, maybe due to his hamstring injury just throwing off his timing, I'm a believer in Wallner. I believe he's a much better HITTER based on his previous numbers. The good OB% and major power are real pluses. He's even improved against LHP over time to not completely stink in that area.

Hoping another team feels the same. Pittsburgh? For Jared Jones?

[TopGunn#22]

I like the idea for of Larnach for Jared Jones.  But Jones (before the injury) had a value that was MUCH higher than Larnach.  Not sure where the value is for Jones at this time or when he would be expected to return.  He never really had any kind of 2025 season.  Would the Pirates sell low on him to get a bat NOW?  I doubt it with a 200K potential SP.

Larnach will have some type of trade value to the right kind of team.  A team where a $5 million dollar, .750 OPS type of OF is a drop in the team budget bucket.

Wallner on the other hand hasn't tanked his value yet.  Last I looked, Wallner had a BBTV of 29.5.  Kyle Teel is at 24.8.  Edgar Quero 18.2.  Theoretically, the Twins could have either of those young catchers for Wallner in a straight up 1 for 1 trade.  Would the Twins be better with either of those young catchers at the cost of Wallner??  

I think they would.  The question is, would the White Sox be interested.  For the Power potential of Wallner, I think they would.  

A trade of Wallner for Teel or Quero would make the Twins better.  But one trade isn't what will "fix the Twins."  They need to make 2-3 more trades to even out the roster.  I think Twins fans should expect that one of Ryan, Lopez or Ober is traded.  It could be more than one of them, but I think you have to expect at least one.  

[tony&rodney]

22 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

I like the idea for of Larnach for Jared Jones.  But Jones (before the injury) had a value that was MUCH higher than Larnach.  Not sure where the value is for Jones at this time or when he would be expected to return.  He never really had any kind of 2025 season.  Would the Pirates sell low on him to get a bat NOW?  I doubt it with a 200K potential SP.

Larnach will have some type of trade value to the right kind of team.  A team where a $5 million dollar, .750 OPS type of OF is a drop in the team budget bucket.

Wallner on the other hand hasn't tanked his value yet.  Last I looked, Wallner had a BBTV of 29.5.  Kyle Teel is at 24.8.  Edgar Quero 18.2.  Theoretically, the Twins could have either of those young catchers for Wallner in a straight up 1 for 1 trade.  Would the Twins be better with either of those young catchers at the cost of Wallner??  

I think they would.  The question is, would the White Sox be interested.  For the Power potential of Wallner, I think they would.  

A trade of Wallner for Teel or Quero would make the Twins better.  But one trade isn't what will "fix the Twins."  They need to make 2-3 more trades to even out the roster.  I think Twins fans should expect that one of Ryan, Lopez or Ober is traded.  It could be more than one of them, but I think you have to expect at least one.  

Not Larnach for Jones, but Wallner for Jones. I would add a minor league pitcher too. 

I don't think the White Sox would trade either Teel or Quero. They also have some outfielders on the way.

As much as it would be nice to have all of Lopez, Ryan, and Ober back next season, there is a fair chance 2 out of the 3 could be traded. Hopefully the return is good.

Yes, the Twins need to make multiple trades.

[Riverbrian]

We have a total of 7 players that play regularly that have an above average OPS. 

And the OP wants us to choose between them. And the responses are to get rid of both of them. 

I keep them both gladly. I'd bring in competition for them but the 40 man cleanup should start at the bottom. These two are nowhere near the bottom. 

This website makes me shake my head. 

 

[MGX]

Matt Wallner WRC+ over the last 3 seasons - 142, 155 & 115. On a team that consistently struggles on offense why would we be anxious to get rid of one of the few productive hitters we have.

[tony&rodney]

58 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

We have a total of 7 players that play regularly that have an above average OPS. 

And the OP wants us to choose between them. And the responses are to get rid of both of them. 

I keep them both gladly. I'd bring in competition for them but the 40 man cleanup should start at the bottom. These two are nowhere near the bottom. 

This website makes me shake my head. 

 

You have made some decent arguments making a case for the Twins to have more pre-arb players in the past. 

I'm not sure whether Trevor Larnach has any value in a trade scenario, but he is also a candidate to be DFA'ed or not be offered arbitration. Larnach is a little bit of a tweener and $5M might be too rich for Minnesota. 

Matt Wallner, on the other hand, should have some value. He , Larnach, and a few others are only suited to the DH position. Wallner is, arguably, much worse in the outfield than Julien ever was at second base. I will not argue for Julien, at all. Finding a team that sees value in Wallner should be a goal for the Twins this offseason.

Both Larnach and Wallner are total losses in the field and on the bases. To date their OPS, BA, RBI's, R, and other offensive numbers do not make up for their deficiencies enough to allow either to play in the field. If no other team shows any interest in either I'm guessing Wallner stays and Larnach is cut. 

If nothing happens, then keep Wallner to be the DH.

[FlyingFinn]

6 hours ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

There is no Wallnach. Wallner and Larnach are not interchangeable.

Wallach. Tim already had a good career!

[Riverbrian]

55 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

You have made some decent arguments making a case for the Twins to have more pre-arb players in the past. 

I'm not sure whether Trevor Larnach has any value in a trade scenario, but he is also a candidate to be DFA'ed or not be offered arbitration. Larnach is a little bit of a tweener and $5M might be too rich for Minnesota. 

Matt Wallner, on the other hand, should have some value. He , Larnach, and a few others are only suited to the DH position. Wallner is, arguably, much worse in the outfield than Julien ever was at second base. I will not argue for Julien, at all. Finding a team that sees value in Wallner should be a goal for the Twins this offseason.

Both Larnach and Wallner are total losses in the field and on the bases. To date their OPS, BA, RBI's, R, and other offensive numbers do not make up for their deficiencies enough to allow either to play in the field. If no other team shows any interest in either I'm guessing Wallner stays and Larnach is cut. 

If nothing happens, then keep Wallner to be the DH.

By total losses in the field and on the bases... I assume you meant to say not as good as some others or below average. 

I watch a lot of baseball. Most plays are routine and they make the play. Also the majority of baseballs are hit to other positions. K's will take away maybe one third of fielding opportunities for the entire team.

Maybe 1 non-routine play every 2 to 3 games. Someone could check my numbers... I could be wrong. 

I'll grant you that when the play requires a higher degree of difficulty. I'd rather have someone else out there but they are not total losses in the field.

They are above average hitters on a squad with 7 below average hitters. 

They are not where you start when the cleanup begins. Wallner is pre-arb next year costs the minimum. Larnach is in his 2nd year of arb and will probably make 4 million next year and 4 million isn't pushing the budget anymore, 

Don't get me wrong... Defense is important but often over weighted. 

 

[old nurse]

4 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Hoping another team feels the same. Pittsburgh? For Jared Jones?

Dream on. 

[tony&rodney]

12 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

By total losses in the field and on the bases... I assume you meant to say not as good as some others or below average. 

I watch a lot of baseball. Most plays are routine and they make the play. Also the majority of baseballs are hit to other positions. K's will take away maybe one third of fielding opportunities for the entire team.

Maybe 1 non-routine play every 2 to 3 games. Someone could check my numbers... I could be wrong. 

I'll grant you that when the play requires a higher degree of difficulty. I'd rather have someone else out there but they are not total losses in the field.

They are above average hitters on a squad with 7 below average hitters. 

They are not where you start when the cleanup begins. Wallner is pre-arb next year costs the minimum. Larnach is in his 2nd year of arb and will probably make 4 million next year and 4 million isn't pushing the budget anymore, 

Don't get me wrong... Defense is important but often over weighted. 

 

The Twins need to get better in all phases of the game. Jenkins, Rodriguez, and Gonzalez may not be ready for Opening Day 2026, but these guys are coming. Buxton is unlikely to be going anywhere. Austin Martin has begun to show skills. You reference OPS. Martin has a better OPS than either guy.

We are just not going to agree on Matt Wallner. I'm not totally pushing him away, but rather believing he can be traded for a more valuable player. If there aren't any buyers he is the DH. 

Larnach? I'm wondering if the Twins bring him back. Again, I'm not getting rid of him but he doesn't have a position.

The Twins will need to get creative to improve the roster. The players from the bottom of the pile will not return anything. It is easy enough to identify what position players have value to other teams: Jeffers, Keaschall, Lee, Lewis, Wallner, and Buxton. It is doubtful if more than one or two of these players are dealt and perhaps none. The Twins could choose to trade prospects. The Twins could also look at signing a few free agents. I'm willing to be surprised but do not expect those options to be among the choices made this winter.

Right now the Twins have the worst team in MLB. The front office chose to roll it back each of the last two years. Do they roll it back again?

These discussions seem like they are best left for the offseason. I'm hoping the Twins do something. The current talent is not up to par.

 

 

[tony&rodney]

3 minutes ago, old nurse said:

Dream on. 

That is the only option for a Twins fan. 

Whatever. I'm merely suggesting that there may be players from the Twins current collection of guys who are seen as worth acquiring by another team. The job of the front office is to identify those teams and the players which might make for a mutually agreed upon trade.

Some people on Twins Daily reference BaseballTradeValues.com. Can anyone comment on how BTV views a Wallner plus an A ball pitcher for Jones plays out. I'm not a fan of that site but many people think they are often within reason on their numbers.  Pittsburgh needs offense badly. They are loaded with pitching. Jared Jones was a bright young pitcher who is currently rehabbing from a partial TJ surgery of some sort. His name was just a thought. There should be others. 

I'm dreaming alright. 

[sstolen]

Twins seem to collect thec4th or 5th outfielder, the "innings eating" serviceable reliever, the utility player that has a 235 b.a., a fill in here and there, good backup catcher that doesn't hit but is ok behind the plate, the other pitcher that was "good once"...etc.  and then they all somehow end ip in the line up...and Twins have big LOB #s and cant seem to get the 3rd out when they need it.

 "ok" players are ok...when everyone is a "maybe" or has potential "upside but not yet" makes for a team that cant win games when they have a  chance.

Getting lucky is great... but it sucks wgen its your strategy.

Go Twins...in '26

[Old Crow]

14 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Hoping another team feels the same. Pittsburgh? For Jared Jones?

Good luck on that.

[tony&rodney]

11 minutes ago, Old Crow said:

Good luck on that.

Thank you.

However, it is the Twins that need the luck. I might be the luckiest guy alive.

[beckmt]

Martin has played well enough to be considered for a starting OF spot next year.  Or he will be a Willi Castro replacement, better hitter, worse fielder.  I expect Laudner to be gone (even though I like him better then Wallner).  We have way too many outfielders, so some will have to go.  Expect them to bring in some relievers or starters.  Depends on how many starters are traded.  I also am expecting at least 2, with the Twins budget in the $70 million range.  Pohlads will cut payroll to the bone in preperation for the 2027 lockout (which could be long and brutal).  Only thing that will stop that is if the owners cannot agree on a plan to push the players.  

[Otaknam]

It would not surprise if either Larnach or Wallner is traded this offseason to make room for EROD (if he can ever stay healthy), Jenkins or both. Culpepper seems the long term answer at shortstop, given his offensive profile and apparently solid defense, which means Lee or Keaschall at second base. Given Keaschall’s encouraging performance, he seems like he has the inside track. With Lewis likely at third, hopefully regaining his stroke, that means Lee would move to a utility role, which would be disappointing given his high draft status. 

[TNtwins85]

18 hours ago, The Mad King said:

Larnach to first and let Wallner ride it out in right. His arm is way more than replacement level. 

His arm doesn’t make up for his terrible routes and jumps in RF. We’ve got 2 guys in St. Paul who are superior to him in RF right now. Give him a 1B mitt. As it stands right now as much as John Bonnes brings up Kody Clemens and Gleeman poo poos him and constantly points out how Wallner has the better OPS Clemens and Wall er are essentially the same player. I don’t know the numbers but Clemens seems to come up clutch more times than not compared to Wallner. Make whatever meaning you want from that but I’m over the Wallner experiment. If his arm is so good then put him in the bullpen at this point. Maybe he brings more value there.

[old nurse]

10 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

That is the only option for a Twins fan. 

Whatever. I'm merely suggesting that there may be players from the Twins current collection of guys who are seen as worth acquiring by another team. The job of the front office is to identify those teams and the players which might make for a mutually agreed upon trade.

Some people on Twins Daily reference BaseballTradeValues.com. Can anyone comment on how BTV views a Wallner plus an A ball pitcher for Jones plays out. I'm not a fan of that site but many people think they are often within reason on their numbers.  Pittsburgh needs offense badly. They are loaded with pitching. Jared Jones was a bright young pitcher who is currently rehabbing from a partial TJ surgery of some sort. His name was just a thought. There should be others. 

I'm dreaming alright. 

Baseball trade values is for fantasy baseball trades to help those people determine a good trade. It really has nothing to do with baseball on the field.

 A mid rotation starting pitcher for a batter who is having a a below average season for a starting corner outfielder and a lottery ticket flies in the face of what you say a GM should do 

[tony&rodney]

36 minutes ago, old nurse said:

Baseball trade values is for fantasy baseball trades to help those people determine a good trade. It really has nothing to do with baseball on the field.

 A mid rotation starting pitcher for a batter who is having a a below average season for a starting corner outfielder and a lottery ticket flies in the face of what you say a GM should do 

While I agree with you, more or less, about BTV I don't want to be completely dismissive of those who see some correlation with the numbers. I don't pay attention to it but am aware that others do at times.

The Wallner plus for Jones is just a thought. It is the teams job to identify who goes and comes in transactions. I'm not closing my mind to any thoughts. The Twins need improvement. We have seen many surprising deals in the past. FWIW, there are a pile of people who are quite high on Wallner.

[Jeff K]

18 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

I'm hoping both finish the season on an absolute terrorizing run of home runs and doubles and are then traded for talented players in November. Wallner may have some value. Perhaps Larnach stays in the organization because the offers are not worth the paperwork and time. Both of these players only have some value in the DH hole.

They both need to buy first baseman's gloves and hope to impress elsewhere or in spring training.